India

• Jain Resource Recycling (2300699D IN) is looking to raise about US$142m in its India IPO.
• The company is primarily focused on manufacturing of non-ferrous metal products by recycling of non-ferrous metal scrap. It is also engaged in trading of non-ferrous metals and other commodities.
• In this note, we take a quick look at the peer comparison and IPO valuations.

• Exide Industries is doubling down on lithium-ion cell and pack manufacturing with huge committed capex, while sustaining its dominant lead-acid franchise.
• The company’s strong cash flows from lead acid batteries are funding high-risk, high-reward bets on EV and renewable storage, positioning it as India’s only dual-chemistry energy storage leader.
• Execution risk in lithium-ion scale-up is high, but Exide’s brand equity provide a buffer. The story now hinges on whether early-mover advantage in Li-ion can translate into sustainable returns.

• Tire makers see profit pressure despite revenue gains  
• JK Tyre eyes double-digit growth, expands global footprint  
•  CEAT eyes expanding Chennai plant at US$51 million spend  

• Transformation into a Diversified FMCG Major: Tata Consumer Products (TCPL) is aggressively diversifying beyond its core tea and salt businesses, moving into higher-growth categories like packaged foods (Tata Sampann), snacks (Tata Soulfull), and ready-to-drink beverages. Recent acquisitions of Capital Foods (Ching’s Secret, Smith & Jones) and Organic India significantly expand its total addressable market and enhance its presence in high-margin segments.
• Strong Brand Equity and Distribution as Key Moats: The company leverages the immense trust associated with the ‘Tata’ brand, providing a significant competitive advantage. Its extensive distribution network, reaching millions of retail outlets, combined with a growing e-commerce presence, creates a formidable barrier to entry and a platform to scale new product launches and acquisitions effectively.
• Focus on Premiumization and Innovation Driving Growth: TCPL is strategically focused on premiumizing its portfolio across categories, such as value-added salts and premium tea variants, to capture evolving consumer preferences and improve margins. A consistent pipeline of new product launches, particularly in health and wellness, caters to modern consumer trends and is a key driver of future growth.

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• Atlanta is the third largest manufcaturer of transformers in India. With recent capex coming online, it boasts of capacity and product offering in line with the market leaders.
• The company has a strong order book of 1,600cr and given the fairly short execution timeline is positioned to deliver 25-30% growth in FY26.
• We believe IPO is being fairly valued at 20-24 times FY26 EBITDA, implying a 30-35% discount vs market leader Transformers & Rectifiers (India) Ltd (TRIL IN) 

• Global Automotive Component Leader with Diversified Operations: Samvardhana Motherson International Ltd. (SAMIL) is a leading global manufacturer of automotive components, with a well-diversified portfolio across products, geographies, and customers. The company is a key solutions provider to major automotive original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) worldwide.
• Strong Growth Trajectory and Ambitious Future Plans: The company has a proven track record of strong financial performance, characterized by consistent revenue and profit growth. SAMIL has laid out an ambitious ‘Vision 2030’ with a target of achieving $108 billion in revenue, driven by organic growth, strategic acquisitions, and diversification into non-automotive sectors.
• Focus on Financial Prudence and Shareholder Returns: Despite its aggressive growth strategy, SAMIL maintains a focus on financial discipline, with a healthy leverage ratio and a commitment to improving its return on capital employed (ROCE). The company also has a stated policy of distributing a significant portion of its profits as dividends.

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• Dominant Market Leader in a Niche, High-Growth Sector: Muthoot Finance is the largest gold financing company in India, a segment poised for significant growth due to the cultural affinity for gold and the vast, untapped potential within the unorganized sector. Its strong brand recognition and extensive branch network create a significant competitive advantage.
• Robust Financial Performance and Strong Growth Trajectory: The company has consistently demonstrated impressive financial results, with strong growth in revenue, net income, and assets under management (AUM). Recent quarterly performance has been particularly strong, driven by rising gold prices and increased demand for secured credit.
• Strategic Focus on Digital Transformation and Diversification: While gold loans remain its core business, Muthoot Finance is strategically investing in technology to enhance customer experience and operational efficiency. The company is also gradually diversifying its product portfolio to include housing finance, personal loans, and insurance, which will reduce its dependence on a single asset class.

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• Strong Market Position and Growth Prospects: ABB India is a leading player in electrification and automation, well-positioned to capitalize on India’s infrastructure development, energy transition, and push for industrial automation. The company has demonstrated a robust growth track record, with a 3-year net income CAGR of 53.28%.
• Solid Financial Performance and Resilience: The company exhibits strong financial health with consistent revenue growth, improving margins, and a debt-free balance sheet. Its resilience is rated 5/5 by Smartkarma, reflecting high profitability and a strong ability to meet obligations.
• Premium Valuation and Margin Risks: The stock trades at a significant premium to its peers, with a P/E ratio of 78.28. An increasing share of large project orders, which typically have lower margins and longer execution times, could pose a risk to future profitability.

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• Polycab India is the largest manufacturer of wires and cables in India, holding a significant market share of 25-26% in the organized market. The company has demonstrated a consistent track record of outperformance and market share gains.
• The company is strategically expanding its Fast-Moving Electrical Goods (FMEG) segment, which includes fans, lighting, switches, and solar products, to diversify its revenue streams and capitalize on India’s consumption growth. This segment has grown at a CAGR of 25% over the last nine years.
• Fueled by strong government infrastructure spending, a revival in the real estate sector, and the global ‘China Plus One’ strategy, the outlook for the Indian wires and cables industry is robust, positioning Polycab for sustained growth.

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• Dominant Market Position with Integrated Model: GAIL holds a commanding position in India’s natural gas sector, operating across the entire value chain from transmission and trading to petrochemicals and city gas distribution. Its extensive pipeline network of over 16,000 km provides a significant competitive advantage and a stable revenue stream through transmission tariffs.
• Favorable Industry Growth Outlook: The company is well-positioned to benefit from the Indian government’s policy to increase the share of natural gas in the energy mix to 15% by 2030 from around 7% currently. This policy is expected to drive substantial growth in natural gas consumption, particularly in the City Gas Distribution (CGD) and industrial sectors.
• Significant Capex Plans to Drive Future Growth: GAIL is undertaking substantial capital expenditure, with plans to invest around ₹30,000 crore over the next three years in pipelines, petrochemicals, and CGD projects. A major ₹60,000 crore ethane cracker project in Madhya Pradesh is also planned, which will significantly boost its petrochemical capacity and future earnings potential.

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• Market Leader with Robust Order Book: Larsen & Toubro is a dominant player in India’s engineering and construction (E&C) sector with a record order book of ₹6.1 lakh crore as of June 2025, providing strong revenue visibility. A significant 46% of this order book is from international markets, particularly the Middle East, indicating successful geographical diversification.
• Diversified Business Model Mitigates Risk: The company operates a well-diversified model across Infrastructure, Energy, Hi-Tech Manufacturing, IT & Technology Services (through LTIMindtree and L&T Technology Services), and Financial Services. This structure allows L&T to capture growth across various economic sectors and mitigate risks associated with the cyclicality of the E&C industry.
• Strategic Focus on High-Growth Areas: L&T is strategically positioning itself for future growth by focusing on high-margin areas like green hydrogen, smart city technology, defense manufacturing, and digital services. The company’s new five-year plan emphasizes deepening its strengths in India and the Middle East while exploring these new, technology-driven opportunities.

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• The Trump administration’s announcement of U.S. $100,000 fee for new H-1B petitions  triggered anxiety, travel confusion, and immediate negative market reaction for Indian IT names.
• Tech workers in the US report heightened hostility, reluctance to travel, and SMB clients unable to absorb fees risk reduced sponsorship, higher attrition, and retention challenges.
• While there may be limited short-term P&L impact, but structural threats — including the HIRE Act — could reshape delivery models, near-shoring, and pricing over 6–18 months.

• Jain Resource Recycling (2300699D IN) is looking to raise about US$142m in its India IPO.
• The company is primarily focused on manufacturing of non-ferrous metal products by recycling of non-ferrous metal scrap. It is also engaged in trading of non-ferrous metals and other commodities.
• In this note, we take a quick look at the company’s past performance

• Wakefit Innovations (1684049D IN) is looking to raise US$231m in its upcoming India IPO.
• Wakefit Innovations is a direct‑to‑consumer sleep and home‑solutions company, founded in 2016. It mainly sells mattresses, furniture and furnishings.
• In this note, we look at the company’s past performance.

• Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.
• Highlights: Currently eight pair trade opportunities across four markets and four sectors persist.
• Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.

• Uno Minda, a legacy auto components player, is rapidly transforming its business mix by winning high-value orders in the EV and premium segments, significantly outperforming broader industry growth.
• A strategic pivot, fueled by capex, is set to elevate thecompany’s “kit value” per vehicle, diversify revenue streams, and strengthen its leadership in the dynamic auto market.
• With its strong order book and aggressive expansion into new technologies, Uno Minda is positioning itself for sustained, profitable growth, but its premium valuation requires a keen eye on execution.

• Jindal Steel International, part of the Naveen Jindal group, has offered over €2 billion (approx. INR 21,000 crore) to acquire thyssenkrupp Steel Europe, supporting its vital decarbonization projects.
• The deal strengthens Jindal’s position in Europe’s high-grade steel market, helps bypass EU carbon tariffs under CBAM, and secures access to the region’s key automotive supply chain.
• A high-stakes move, success depends on tackling EU regulations, integrating complex operations, and managing pension liabilities, while navigating subdued global steel demand.

• In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Adani Ports
• UST yields rose slightly yesterday led by the long-end, as the lower-than-expected initial jobless claims marginally pared market expectations for Fed easing. The UST curve bear-steepened, with the yield on the 2Y UST rising 1 bp to 3.56%, while that of the 10Y UST was up 2 bps at 4.11%.
• Equities rallied to fresh record highs, supported by the dovish interest-rate environment. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq climbed 0.5% and 0.9% to 6,632 and 22,471, respectively.

• Dr Lal PathLabs Ltd (DLPL IN) started FY26 on a strong note, achieving double-digit improvement in all key parameters, mainly driven by volume resulting from expanding geographic presence.
• Steady secular rise in the number of tests as well as sample per patient is helping DLPL to deliver healthy top and bottom line growth, without indulging in price hike.
• For FY26, the company guided for 11–12% revenue growth (acceleration from 10.5% revenue growth in FY25) and expects FY26 EBITDA margin will be better than initial expectation of 27%.

• Northern Arc is fast shifting toward direct retail Lending (D2C), while leveraging originator partnerships and technology; recent rate cuts and regulatory relief are improving cost of funds & capital efficiency.
• Northern Arc’s mix of structured finance, co-lending, and fund management creates steady fee income, making it more resilient than traditional NBFCs relying mainly on heavy lending assets.
• Northern Arc is a differentiated NBFC benefits from inclusion & fintech growth, but valuation relies on retail execution, risk control, and asset quality pressures.

• Time for another Solar Photovoltaic module manufacturer to list undeterred by the tepid listing for Vikram Solar
• Largely a commoditised business with a potential technological threat. Solar PV companies in India continue to trade at exceptional valuations of 20-30 times trailing EBITDA
• Saatvik, despite being smaller in scale vs peers and in face of intensifying competition is being priced at 14-15 times our FY27E EBITDA (peers trade at 14-16x)

• Context:HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) remains in a bullish setup. Quantitative models highlight further upside potential in the near term and identify key support levels.
• Trade Idea: With implied volatility near multi-year lows (12th percentile), long call strategies are favored. Suitable expiries and strikes are outlined, with an alternative structure discussed for reducing premium outlay.
• Why Read: This Insight combines directional analysis with volatility signals, highlighting a tactical options strategy where low implied volatility and bullish probabilities align, offering investors defined risk/reward.

• Physicswallah Limited (2076103D IN) is looking to raise about US$434m in its upcoming India IPO. The deal will be run by Axis, Kotak, GS, and JPM.
• Physicswallah Ltd (PWL) offers test preparation courses for competitive examinations, and other courses such as for upskilling, across 13 education categories, including JEE, NEET, and UPSC, among others.
• According to Redseer, PWL was among the top-five education companies in terms of revenue in India and one of the fastest-growing companies in terms of revenue growth during FY22-24.

• SRM Contractors (SRM IN)‘s strategic focus on high-margin projects like tunnels and slope stabilization,  positions it to benefit from the government’s infrastructure push.
• Company has given guidance of INR 900Cr of revenue and 500bps margin improvement in the coming year.
• Order book reached a record INR 1,476 crore as of Aug-25,  giving strong revenue visibility for the next two to three years, equivalent to approximately 2.8 times its FY25 revenue.

• Supply-Led Rally: Zinc has rebounded ~15% to ~US$3,000/t, driven by mine curtailments, smelter shutdowns, collapsing TCs, and low inventories.
• China Stimulus Tailwind: Beijing’s CNY 1tn package lifts sentiment for galvanised steel, which makes up ~60% of zinc demand, reinforcing price momentum.
• Valuation Impact: Hindustan Zinc justifies a premium on pure-play exposure, while Vedanta offers cheaper diversified optionality; sustainability of prices above US$3,000/t remains the key investor question.

• Styrenix, after returning to promoter control, is stepping up capacity expansion and riding demand tailwinds from ABS, SAN, PS driven by white goods, automotive, and packaging. 
• India’s demand for styrene‐based polymers is accelerating (styrene demand projected 15% growth in FY2025-26) and government policy (Atmanirbhar, petchem investment) is increasingly favorable.
• Styrenix offers a strong lever to India’s structural growth in engineering plastics, but valuation must account for margin cyclicity, FX exposure, and capex risk.

• Urban Company has delivered FY25 profitability and strong revenue growth, its IPO was oversubscribed ~100×, listing at ~57–58% premium. But many growth levers are now under pressure.  
• At its current price, even modest slippages (in margin, in expansion pace, in competition) could sharply reduce returns. The risk/reward seems tilted towards downside in near‑to‑mid term. 
• Investors should watch closely how UC executes outside its “easy” markets (Tier‑1 / large cities), how it manages competition and costs, and whether post‑IPO lock‑ups/quarterly earnings present buying windows.

• HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) has been in a mild pullback since the end of July. The stock closed up for 2 weeks but has not reached any significative overbought level.
• This week HDFC Bank went down a bit, stayed above the Q1 support level but this pattern is very bullish, in the past it gave way to long, profitable rallies.
• We cannot say for sure if the stock will rally up from here, but if it does, consider profit targets north of 1034 (Q3), and it could rally higher.

• Indegene is shifting from transactional work to large-scale, transformative “Tectonic” deals, securing over US$1 million from two paid pilots in Q1 FY26.
• This pivot moves the company up the value chain, creating a durable competitive moat and positioning it as a strategic partner, not just a vendor.
• Indegene’s strong balance sheet and focused M&A strategy will likely accelerate this high-value growth, cementing its role as a key player in pharma’s digital future.

• Funding not a hurdle: Promoter strength provides comfort despite past negative precedents.
• Valuation undemanding: Entry at ~US$440–475/t is below replacement cost and past cycle-peak deals.
• Execution heavy: Success depends on managing restructuring, integration, and EU policy commitments.

• Orkla India Ltd. (0752506D IN) is looking to raise about US$300m in its upcoming India IPO.
• Orkla India is a multi-category food company offering a diverse range of spices and convenience food products, catering to every meal occasion across breakfast, lunch, dinner, snacks, beverages and desserts.
• In this note, we talk about the company’s historical performance.

• Urban Company (UC) raised around US$220m in its heavily subscribed India IPO.
• UCL is a tech-enabled platform offering home and beauty services delivered by trained professionals at customer’s location.
• We have looked at the past performance in our previous note. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.

• UST yields declined 2-3 bps yesterday, amid limited macro news and ahead of the Fed’s expected 25-bp rate cut on Wednesday.
• The yield on the 2Y UST fell 2 bps to 3.54%, while that on the 10Y UST was down 3 bps at 4.04%.
• Equities rose to fresh record highs, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq up 0.5% and 0.9%, respectively. 

• Sun Pharma’s innovative medicines like Ilumya, Cequa, Winlevi, and Leqselvi are driving strong growth, now contributing 20% of revenues. But the Halol plant remains under USFDA restrictions, blocking new approvals.
• Specialty medicines such as Ilumya are fueling profitable growth, but continued compliance issues at Halol damage regulatory confidence and delay approvals for new products in the US market.
• Sun Pharma’s growth is supported by its specialty portfolio and strong India presence, but improving Halol’s compliance record is essential to rebuild trust and unlock higher market valuations.

• Shares of KRBL Ltd (KRB IN) dropped as much as 12% intraday on September 15th, owing to resignation of Independent Director, Mr. Anil Kumar Chaudhary.
• His letter highlights suppression of dissent, lack of transparency in decision-making, questionable receivable write-offs, and CSR mismanagement among several governance concerns currently at the company.
• When triangulated with auditor qualifications, committee overlaps, CSR lapses, frequent Board/CS exits, and major write off, a pattern of weak checks and board oversight emerges.

• Independent Director Anil Kumar Chaudhary resigned in September 2025 citing serious governance issues including suppression of dissent, withholding of information, arbitrary financial decisions, and board process irregularities.
• These recent events suggest that previous governance controversies are not fully resolved, raising issues around board transparency, independent oversight, and risk to stakeholder trust.
• While KRBL’s operational performance remains strong, this development raises serious red flags about the company’s governance culture.

• This note discusses the superlative historical track record of Tata Capital Limited (TATACAP IN) pre merger with Tata Motors Finance.
• It also focusses on financial metrics of Tata Motors Finance and its financial track record.
• Finally, how post merger of both companies the finance metrics has changed and what would be the likely valuation of IPO is discussed in this note.

• We cut our losses on our long position on Union Bank of India (UBI), whilst sticking with our core conviction buy name Bank of Baroda
• UBI has a slightly higher structural credit risk profile than Baroda, in our view, with UBI’s slightly bigger share of exposure to agriculture and MSME credit
• Baroda is now our sole buy in Indian banks; it has lesser credit quality headwinds than UBI for similar valuations, whilst having potential to expand returns over the medium term

• Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.
• Highlights: Currently nine pair trade opportunities across four markets and four sectors persist.
• Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.

• India’s spectacular underperformance over the past 12 months relative to Asia has been driven primarily by dismal earnings delivery by corporates, leading to persistent EPS estimate downgrades.
• We identify stocks with strong earnings delivery, i.e. EPS estimate upgrades over past 1, 3 and 6 months, forecast EPS growth >10%, net D/E < 1 and PEG < 1.4x.
• We screen 11 stocks from industrials, healthcare, materials and property. Most have appreciated significantly over 6- and 12-month timeframes, establishing that the market tends to reward superior earnings delivery.

• Context: The Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB IN) vs. Bajaj Finserv (BJFIN IN) price-ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
• Highlights: Going long Kotak Mahindra Bank and short Bajaj Finserv targets a 6% return.
• Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.