Indonesia

• Indo Tambangraya Megah (ITMG IJ) approved the buyback of 150 mn USD at its EGM on 3rd November, in addition to approving a 50 mn USD dividend payment. 
• Net cash on the balance sheet was >USD 920 million at the end of 3Q 2025 (representing 58% of the market capitalization), easily enough to complete its capital allocation commitments.
• At the cyclical low, the company will still generate free cash flow of 250 million USD in FY25, representing a free cash flow yield of 15%. 

• Mitra Keluarga is a leading Indonesian hospital operator with a strong track record of operational excellence and profitability, consistently ramping up new hospitals to profitability within a year.
• The company is strategically shifting its payer mix towards higher-margin private patients, who now account for approximately 87.8% of revenue, driving margin expansion and resilient earnings growth despite softer patient volumes.
• Supported by a strong, debt-free balance sheet, MIKA is pursuing a disciplined expansion strategy, focusing on high-growth urban areas and planning to open several new hospitals, which underpins a positive long-term growth outlook.

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• Leadership in Alternative-Powered School Buses: Blue Bird is a market leader in the transition to low- and zero-emission school buses, particularly in electric (EV) and propane models. This positions the company to capitalize on significant government funding and regulatory tailwinds aimed at electrifying the nation’s school bus fleet.
• Strong Financial Momentum and Improved Profitability: The company has demonstrated robust financial performance, with significant year-over-year growth in revenue and a substantial improvement in profitability. This is driven by a favorable mix of higher-margin alternative-powered buses, disciplined pricing, and operational efficiencies.
• Favorable Industry Dynamics Underpinned by Government Support: The North American school bus market is supported by strong secular trends, including an aging fleet requiring replacement and unprecedented federal funding, such as the EPA’s $5 billion Clean School Bus Program, which significantly lowers the acquisition cost of EV buses for school districts.

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• Dominant Market Leader with Strong Content Slate: MD Pictures is Indonesia’s largest film production house, consistently delivering box office hits like ‘KKN di Desa Penari’, the highest-grossing Indonesian film of all time. The company has demonstrated a strong track record of producing commercially successful films, particularly in the horror genre, and has maintained a leading market share of local film viewership.
• Strategic Pivot to Digital and OTT Platforms: Recognizing the immense growth in the digital space, FILM has aggressively expanded its revenue streams beyond theatrical releases. The company has secured multi-year licensing contracts with major local and international OTT platforms, including Disney+Hotstar, Netflix, and WeTV, with digital distribution now accounting for a significant portion of revenue.
• Favorable Industry Tailwinds vs. Intensifying Competition: The Indonesian film market is poised for substantial growth, driven by a rising middle class, increasing disposable income, and a growing preference for local content. However, the industry is becoming more competitive, with a few major players dominating distribution channels and the threat of market oversaturation as more films are produced annually.

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• Wintermar is strategically positioned to capitalize on the offshore support vessel (OSV) industry upcycle, driven by rising charter rates and increased offshore exploration activity, particularly in Southeast Asia.
• The company is actively modernizing its fleet, focusing on higher-tier vessels like Platform Supply Vessels (PSVs) and Heavy Load Barges (HLBs) to improve margins and meet growing demand for deepwater projects and offshore wind farm construction.
• Strong financial performance is evident, with significant growth in revenue and net income, a strengthened balance sheet with a net cash position, and the reinstatement of dividends, signaling confidence in sustained profitability.

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• Dominant Market Leader with Strong Growth: Impack Pratama is a clear leader in the Indonesian plastic building materials sector, holding an estimated 90% market share in polycarbonate roofing and 70% in uPVC roofing. This dominance is translating into exceptional financial performance, with 3-year CAGRs for revenue and net income at 20.30% and 36.94%, respectively.
• Favorable Industry Tailwinds: The Indonesian construction market is poised for steady growth, driven by government infrastructure spending, urbanization, and a rising middle class. Projections indicate a market expansion of 5.48% to 7.50% annually, creating a robust demand environment for IMPC’s products.
• Premium Valuation Reflects Quality, But Poses Risk: The company’s strong performance and market position command a high valuation, with a P/E ratio of 37.2x. While justified by its growth trajectory, this premium makes the stock susceptible to shifts in market sentiment and earnings disappointments. The low dividend yield and inconsistent payout history may also deter income-focused investors.

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• Indoritel Makmur Internasional (DNET) is a strategic investment holding company providing unique exposure to Indonesia’s burgeoning consumer and digital economy through its significant stakes in market-leading enterprises.
• The company’s core holdings include PT Indomarco Prismatama (Indomaret), the nation’s largest convenience store network, and PT Mega Akses Persada (FiberStar), a key player in the fiber optic infrastructure sector.
• While top-line growth is robust, driven by the expansion of its portfolio companies, profitability and free cash flow remain volatile due to intense competition in the retail sector and high capital expenditure requirements for fiber network expansion.

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• Impending 10% Share Buyback: A significant near-term catalyst is the planned 10% share buyback, strongly supported by a robust balance sheet where cash reserves constitute approximately 67% of the company’s market capitalization.
• Superior Shareholder Returns vs. Cyclical Headwinds: ITMG has a strong track record of returning value to shareholders via high dividend yields. However, the company’s financial performance is currently impacted by a cyclical downturn in coal prices, which has compressed margins and reduced profitability from the peak levels of 2022.
• Strategic Transition Amidst ESG Pressure: As a pure-play coal miner, ITMG faces significant long-term risks from the global energy transition. The company has initiated a transformation by investing in renewable energy, but its earnings remain overwhelmingly dependent on the thermal coal market.

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• Mitra Adiperkasa stands out as Indonesia’s leading retailers, with an impressive portfolio of brands across segments, a dominant presence in major malls across Indonesia, and a strong online presence. 
• MAPI booked a solid set of results in 3Q2025, with momentum continuing into October, as consumer sentiment has started to improve, with active outperforming. Digital, F&B, and fashion are improving  
• The company’s international business is seeing better performance, especially in Thailand and the Philippines, with expansion remaining on track, and management expressing a more optimistic view for 4Q2025 and beyond.

• Dominant Market Leader: As Indonesia’s largest state-owned telecommunications provider, Telkom holds a commanding market share in both mobile (through its subsidiary Telkomsel) and fixed broadband services, providing a strong foundation for stable revenue generation.
• Strategic Asset Monetization: The company is pursuing a value-unlocking strategy by spinning off its fiber assets. This move, coupled with plans to bring in a strategic partner, aims to improve capital efficiency and potentially lead to a significant re-rating of the company’s valuation.
• Attractive Shareholder Returns: Telkom consistently delivers strong returns to shareholders, evidenced by a high dividend yield and a formal commitment to dividend payouts. The company’s strong cash flow generation supports this policy.

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• Indofood is a vertically integrated food solutions giant in Indonesia, poised to benefit from the country’s favorable demographics and rising consumer spending.
• The Agribusiness segment, particularly palm oil, is a significant growth driver, supported by strong commodity prices and government biodiesel mandates.
• While the company exhibits strong top-line growth and market leadership, it faces risks from commodity price volatility, currency fluctuations, and margin pressures in its consumer branded products segment.

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• Cahaya Aero Services (CASS) is a dominant integrated aviation support provider in Indonesia, poised to capitalize on the nation’s robust recovery and projected long-term growth in air travel.
• The company is demonstrating exceptional financial performance, characterized by accelerating revenue growth, significant margin expansion, and triple-digit growth in net income and EPS over the past three years.
• While the company’s strategic focus on reinvesting for growth has fueled impressive operational expansion, this comes at the expense of shareholder distributions, with no dividends paid in recent years.

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• Kalbe Farma is the largest publicly-listed pharmaceutical company in Indonesia and Southeast Asia, with a diversified business model spanning four key divisions: Prescription Pharmaceuticals, Consumer Health, Nutritionals, and Distribution & Logistics.
• The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the favorable long-term tailwinds of the Indonesian healthcare industry, which is the largest in ASEAN and projected to continue its strong growth trajectory, driven by a large population, a rising middle class, and the national health insurance scheme (JKN/BPJS).
• Despite recent margin pressures from a shifting product mix and currency fluctuations, the stock appears attractively valued, trading at a significant discount to its historical mean. A rebound in revenue, coupled with stable raw material prices and a resilient core profit outlook, presents a compelling investment case.

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• Superbank (SUPA IJ) aims to raise around US$184m in its Indonesia IPO.
• Superbank is a digital bank in Indonesia operating through a combination of ecosystem-led distribution and its own standalone mobile application.
• In our previous note, we looked at its past performance. In this note, we will talk about valuations.

• Superbank (SUPA IJ) aims to raise around US$184m in its Indonesia IPO.
• Superbank is a digital bank in Indonesia operating through a combination of ecosystem-led distribution and its own standalone mobile application. 
• In this note, we look at its past performance and other deal dynamics that might impact the listing.

• Pipeline construction for the SE-MGH 5–7 mmcf/d development is scheduled to begin in early 2026, with first gas expected in 1H26.
• Capex has been reduced further to US$2–3 mm (from US$2.5–4 mm), of which US$1.7 mm has already been spent.
• The subsequent North MGH development (incremental capex of ~US$1 mm) would lift total production to 7–10 mmcf/d.

• Dominant Market Leader with Strong Brand Equity: As the sole agent and exclusive distributor of TOTO products in Indonesia since 1978, Surya Pertiwi commands a leading position in the nation’s sanitary ware market, underpinned by the premium TOTO brand, which is synonymous with quality and reliability.
• Favorable Long-Term Industry Tailwinds: The company is well-positioned to capitalize on Indonesia’s positive demographic trends, including a growing middle class, rapid urbanization, and government-led infrastructure and housing initiatives, which are expected to drive sustained demand for sanitary and bathroom products.
• Attractive Shareholder Returns and Solid Financials: SPTO has a track record of consistent profitability and revenue growth, complemented by a generous dividend policy, offering investors a compelling combination of growth and income. The company’s high dividend yield is a key feature of its investment profile.

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