Indonesia

• D&L is ELSA’s established earnings engine, contributing the largest share of Group profit in every primary-verified year from FY2022–FY2025, including 62.2% in FY2025, despite meaningful volatility in the other segments.
• 1H2026 confirms acceleration: D&L revenue grew 26.6%, operating profit 50.2%, and segment net profit 54.4%, with half of operating-profit growth driven by revenue/volume and half by margin expansion in tandem.
• Our Base Case requires no Upstream recovery and values ELSA at Rp934/share, implying 28.8% upside from Rp725 on a modest 7.5x P/E multiple, without credit for seismic conversion or recovery.

• Prodia Widyahusada (PRDA IJ) is Indonesia’s reading diagnostic company, with around a 35% market share and a network of 392 outlets across the archipelago.
• PRDA booked +8.5% sales growth in 1H2026, with improving margins, as it shifted toward more esoteric testing. Testing volumes were driven by external referrals, doctors’ referrals, and corporate customers. 
• The company’s digital sales through U by Prodia saw strong growth, with Prodia for Doctors also seeing increasing traction, but with lower capex. Valuations are attractive versus Indian comparables.

• The MV Global Gold Miners index represents the performance of large and mid-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world.
• We saw no changes for the September 2026 rebal event. There will be no index changes for the September 2026 rebal event.
• We expect a one-way flow of US$687mm for September 2026.

• We believe that, despite the macro-economic challenges of Indonesia, investor sentiment is no longer worsening and may even be improving as reflected in the banks’ PBV ratio trends
• We re-iterate our buy rating on Bank Mandiri for its improving return trends, solid credit quality, attractive valuations and its asset-sensitivity at a time of higher benchmark rates
• Mandiri also has relatively limited exposure to domestic government bonds, which should limit any hit to core capital at this time of high bond yields

• PT Fast Food Indonesia Tbk (FAST IJ) holds an entrenched leadership position in Indonesia’s quick-service restaurant (QSR) sector as the sole franchisee of KFC and Taco Bell, underpinned by strategic sponsorship from the Gelael family and the Salim Group.
• Financial performance exhibits early operational stabilization following severe margin erosion during 2023–2024 caused by raw material cost inflation and geopolitical consumer boycott headwinds, with annual revenue holding at IDR 4.88T in FY25 and Q1 2026 marking a brief inflection to positive net profitability.
• Balance sheet deleveraging, store network rationalization toward capital-efficient compact formats, and gross margin defense remain critical to restoring sustainable return on equity, as an elevated P/B multiple of 8.7x reflects a depleted equity base rather than premium fundamental earnings power.

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• Telkom Indonesia (TLKM IJ) share price is still down 23% YTD despite several positive catalysts.
• Monetization of the InfraNexia could result in margin expansion and special dividend declaration. 
• The management has done it before with Mitratel, monetized through USD 1.3 billion IPO. 

• Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (AMRT IJ) is Indonesia’s leading grocery retailer through a network of more than 24,000 outlets across the archipelago, with mini-markets being the winning format in Indonesia.
• The company booked solid growth in 2Q2026, despite domestic and international headwinds, with margins improving at the same time through a combination of price increases and an improved product mix. 
• AMRT remains confident in its target to expand its stores by 1,000 new outlets in 2026, while increasing the share of online sales to 10%. Valuations remain highly attractive.

• Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ)  earnings engine remains intact—CASA above 85%, loans regaining share, and ROE near 22%—despite an NIM recovery that remains unproven.
• Our fair value range is Rp4,928–Rp7,965, with Base Case at Rp6,520 versus the Rp6,700 reference price—downside skews larger than upside.
• The 2024 peak price was supported by NIM expansion (+30bps) and CIR improvement (-2.6pp); today, NIM is 50bps lower and loan growth has slowed to ~8%, narrowing upside.

• What has changed since our July ABM is that the ceasefire we carefully described did not hold, and oil has round-tripped roughly halfway back toward war-peak levels.
• Fixed rate bonds that rely on discretionary spending should underperform floating rate bonds while the beneficiaries of the trade have shifted from energy exposure toward carry and short-duration positioning.
• We remain positive on Asian credit fundamentals and, for those who must invest in fixed rate bonds, we list 9 bonds which we like at the time of this report

• 2Q26 production of 627 bbl/d and the end‑June cash position were previously disclosed.
• Criterium has executed a definitive Gas Sales Agreement with PGN (PT Perusahaan Gas Negara), securing gas sales through 2040.
• The contract includes a take‑or‑pay commitment and a sales price at the upper end of the US$6.5–7.6/mcf range.

• PT Reliance Sekuritas Indonesia Tbk (RELI IJ) operates as an established integrated securities brokerage, fixed income dealer, and underwriter in Indonesia, benefiting from ecosystem synergies under parent PT Reliance Capital Management.
• Financial performance displays pronounced volatility, characterized by a 3-year Net Income CAGR of -14.16%, erratic quarterly net profits, and negative operating cash flows of -Rp23.9bn in FY2025 and 1H2026.
• Trading at an EV/EBITDA of 41.1x and a trailing P/E of 99.6x, RELI trades at an elevated valuation premium relative to regional micro-cap peers, reflecting high uncertainty and low dividend yields (Smartscore 1/5).

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• $BBRI is still growing, with loans up 12.23% YoY in 5M26. But the economics are deteriorating: NIM fell to 5.87%, while May-26 credit costs moved beyond the historical range.
• A high payout ratio leaves only 7.98% of earnings retained, implying just 1.39% internal growth and raising the question of how sustained book-value growth can be financed.
• Our Residual Income Model estimates intrinsic value at Rp2,952–Rp3,710, with the valuation less sensitive to near-term ROE recovery than the operating outlook suggests.

• Unicharm Indonesia’s last 2 quarterly results have shown signs of turnaround. Part of this turnaround is due to accounting changes. 
• The company has now started focusing on feminine care as it believes that’s where it has strong brand and pricing power. 
• Diapers’ focus is to revitalize growth by improving trade channels, especially e-commerce. Petcare is small but growing fast.