Indonesia

• Multi Bintang Indonesia (MLBI IJ) reported its FY23 earnings with revenues/profits up 6.7%/15% YoY.  Q4 FY23 revenues and profits were up 5.6%/17% YoY. 
• OPM (%) expanded 180 bps from 40.6% to 42.4%, and NPAT margins 240 bps to 32.1%. We believe that trends will continue to improve in 2024.
• At its board meeting, we expect the company to declare a full-year FY23 dividend of 500 Rph/share ( implying a 7% yield). The H123 dividend was 110 Rph/share.

• PT Nippon Indosari Corpindo (ROTI IJ) saw a relatively slow finish to the year with a slight decline in sales but the key drag came from a higher return rate.
• 4Q2023 did not see the usual seasonal spike but 2024 has started well and the return rate has come down, which will boost profitability as new products gain traction. 
• ROTI has launched several more affordable products to help drive its push into general trade whilst raw material prices remain under control. Valuations are attractive with recovery ahead.

• Semen Indonesia (SMGR IJ) released a positive set of results in FY2023 despite a difficult operating environment and intense competition through increasing efficiencies linked to sustainability at the same time. 
• The company continues to work on improving production efficiency as well as distribution through greater digitalisation and is benefiting from synergies from Semen Baturaja.
• Increasing government infrastructure spending will help to drive growth in demand for bulk cement, especially from the new capital, with Semen Indonesia being a prime beneficiary. Valuations look attractive. 

• Bukalapak.com (BUKA IJ) booked a slightly weaker finish to the year than expected with a slowdown in revenue growth in 4Q2023 and a miss on adjusted EBITDA breakeven.
• The key reason was a thinning out of non-performing specialty businesses which impacted short-term revenues but will improve revenues and adjusted EBITDA. as the focus shifts to higher take-rate businesses.
• Bukalapak.com PT Tbk (BUKA IJ) is guiding for +15-20% revenue growth and positive adjusted EBITDA in 2024 with execution on this being paramount. Valuations remain attractive.

• Siloam International Hospitals (SILO IJ) released a strong set of numbers in FY2023, with increasing inpatient admissions and treatment intensity despite a normalising environment coming out of the pandemic.
• The average revenue per occupied bed remained significantly above peers, whilst the company continued to focus on highly complex clinical programs across cardiology, neurology, oncology, and orthopaedic surgery. 
• Siloam International Hospitals takes a blended approach to premium, value-seeker, and BPJS patients, optimising  efficiencies around the latter. Valuations and growth stack up favourably versus its peers.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• MGM China Holdings
• Pakuwon Jati

• Indonesian edutech platform PINTAR announced that it has raised US$3 million in Pre-Series A funding led by Havez Capital with the participation of SIG Venture Capital.
• In a press statement, the startup said that the funding marks a new chapter for PINTAR in achieving its mission of helping Indonesian workers to upskill and get out of the middle-income trap with the help of technology.
• Starting in 2013 under the HarukaEdu and Pintaria brands, PINTAR offers various online education programmes for college and university levels, enterprise training programmes for employees, boot camp certification and masterclasses.

• It’s the largest bank by assets in Indonesia, but its loan growth is about 2x the country aggregate growth rate.
• NPL decline is stronger than most all banks in the country over the past few years, implications for credit costs are positive.
• Boring old costs should not be ignored, especially where they are driving radical expansion of ROA.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• China Hongqiao
• Delta Dunia Makmur

• GoTo Gojek Tokopedia (GOTO IJ) 4Q2023 results revealed another sequential increase in GTV and positive adjusted EBITDA for both ODS and e-commerce, despite reduced incentive and marketing spending.
• GoTo achieved positive top-line growth by expanding its total addressable market through more affordable products and a strong performance from consumer lending in fintech, coupled with great cash cost efficiencies.
• 2024 will be a transformational year for GoTo without the yoke of Tokopedia promotional spending but with significant cash coming in every quarter that can be used to drive growth.

• GoTo Gojek Tokopedia Tbk PT (GOTO IJ) reported 4Q2023 results yesterday which shows that the company’s profitability has significantly improved.
• The improvement in profitability has come at the cost of growth which has continued to decline suggesting profits may not be sustained.
• GoTo announced that it has completed the Tokopedia partnership deal with TikTok and also a plan to buyback shares, subject to regulatory/shareholder approval.

• Cisarua Mountain Dairy (CMRY IJ) held an analyst call after its results, revealing a positive outlook for dairy products and premium consumer foods, with potentially higher margins ahead.
• The company launched several new products in 2023, with more of a focus on affordability through yoghurt sticks. It will launch more affordable Kanzler Singles in 2H2024.
• Cisarua Mountain Dairy will expand distribution through general trade and Miss Cimory MCM, with ongoing sales & marketing spending. Valuations remain attractive relative to growth and returns. 

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• Delta Dunia Makmur
• MGM China Holdings

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• Agung Podomoro Land
• China Vanke

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• Pertamina Geothermal Energy PT
• Sunny Optical Technology Group
• West China Cement
• Yuexiu Property

Delta Dunia Makmur has launched a tender offer for the USD 7.75% 2026 notes (USD 365.7 mn outstanding), with a concurrent consent solicitation. We recommend that noteholders tender their bonds, and close our “Buy” call on the BUMAIJ 7.75 ’26s.

• Cisarua Mountain Dairy booked a solid finish to FY2023, with FY2023 sales growth of +21.9% and net profit growth of +17.0% YoY, as it spent to grow new product sales.
• Slower dairy was more than offset by the strong growth in premium consumer foods but dairy products are set to grow faster in 2024 through UHT milk and yoghurt sticks.
• Consumer food growth momentum should be sustained by new product launches such as new products such Kanzler Crispy Nuggets Sticks. Valuations remain attractive relative to growth.