Category

Indonesia

Feb 05
0

Daily Brief Indonesia: Barito Renewables Energy, Multi Bintang Indonesia and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ): Global Index Inclusion Likely This Month
  • Multi Bintang Indonesia (MLBI IJ): Anticipating Strong Q4 FY24, 80% ROCE, and >9% Dividend Yield

Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ): Global Index Inclusion Likely This Month

By Brian Freitas

  • Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ) stock has gone through a series of gyrations as index inclusion was announced and then retracted due to the concentrated holding of the stock.
  • With pre-IPO PE/VC investors selling some stock, the increase in float could result in the inclusion of Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ) in a global index later this month.
  • The inclusion of the stock in the index will require passive trackers to buy just over 400m shares of the stock. That is over 14x ADV and will be impactful.

Multi Bintang Indonesia (MLBI IJ): Anticipating Strong Q4 FY24, 80% ROCE, and >9% Dividend Yield

By Sameer Taneja

  • Multi Bintang Indonesia (MLBI IJ)  saw significant inflection in Q3 FY24, with revenue and net profit growth of 21.9% and 35%, respectively. Strong growth is anticipated in Q4’s high season.
  • Our confidence in MLBI’s Q4 stems from Bali’s impressive tourism statistics, registering a 17% YoY increase in Q3 FY24 and 19% YoY in Q4 FY24 (up to November).
  • With a 10.4x FY24e PE valuation, over 9% dividend yield, and historical ROCEs surpassing 80%, we believe the share price is at a turning point.

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Jan 31
0

Daily Brief Indonesia: Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk Pt and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (AMRT IJ) – Renewing Strategies for 2025

Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (AMRT IJ) – Renewing Strategies for 2025

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Sumber Alfaria Trijaya is set to book a strong finish to the year, with revenues on track to meet guidance and 4Q benefiting from supplier rebates and seasonal festivities.
  • The company is guiding for revenue growth in 2025 in line with that of 2024, with a plan to open at least 1,000 new Alfamart stores during the year.
  • The guidance for Lawson and Alfamidi store expansion has yet to be announced but numbers are likely to be similar or higher than 2024. Valuations remain attractive versus growth expectations. 

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Jan 28
0

Daily Brief Indonesia: Bank Negara Indonesia Persero and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ) – Honing in on Transactions and CASA

Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ) – Honing in on Transactions and CASA

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Bank Negara Indonesia came good in 4Q2024 with a strong finish to the year due to higher loan growth from corporates and consumers, alongside higher CASA growth cementing higher NIMs
  • The bank also saw improving asset quality, with falling loans-at-risk, and although there was an uptick in provisions in 4Q due to Sritex, the outlook for credit costs looks stable.
  • Bank Negara Indonesia will grow its focus on becoming a transactional bank, with CASA as a key focus, providing liquidity to grow its loan book. Valuations remain attractive. 

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Jan 27
0

Daily Brief Indonesia: Bank Central Asia and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) – Strong Finisher

Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) – Strong Finisher

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Bank Central Asia booked a solid finish to 2024, with strong loan growth across the board driven by  corporate and SMEs leading, whilst its CASA continued to grow, protecting NIMs.
  • The bank continue to cement its position as Indonesia’s leading transactional bank with +21% growth in 2024 to a record 36bn transactions, with its mobile banking leading the way. 
  • BCA continues to grow channels inclusing  branches and ATMS to supplement its mobile banking growth. Loan growth may slow slightly this year but BCA stands out from peers on funding.

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Jan 23
0

Daily Brief Indonesia: Japfa Comfeed Indonesia, Cisarua Mountain Dairy and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • IDX30/​​LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Big Impact in Some Stocks with 4 Days to Implementation
  • Cisarua Mountain Dairy (CMRY IJ) – General Trade in the Cross Hairs

IDX30/​​LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Big Impact in Some Stocks with 4 Days to Implementation

By Brian Freitas

Cisarua Mountain Dairy (CMRY IJ) – General Trade in the Cross Hairs

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Cisarua Mountain Dairy (CMRY IJ) held an impromptu analyst call to address concerns over a potential sugar tax and the free milk program, both of which have yet to materialise.
  • The company is making a marked push into general trade, armed with a broader range of affordable products including Yoghurt Sticks, UHT milk, and ready-to-eat sausages. 
  • Management remains confident about the outlook for 2025 with an ongoing recovery in dairy and an expansion into general trade, with a 10% increase in outlets covered. Top staples pick.  

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Jan 21
0

Daily Brief Indonesia: Ultrajaya Milk, Criterium Energy and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Ultrajaya Milk (ULTJ IJ) – Bringing Milk to the Children
  • Criterium Energy Ltd: Onshore Gas Development Takes Centre Stage with Potentially Much Lower Capex

Ultrajaya Milk (ULTJ IJ) – Bringing Milk to the Children

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Ultrajaya Milk remains one of Indonesia’s leading dairy companies with a leading 36% market share of the UHT milk market, with Indonesia being one of the lowest consumers in ASEAN.  
  • The company has seen a strong recovery in its dairy business and will be a key beneficiary of the school meals program in Indonesia, launched this year by President Prabowo.
  • Ultrajaya‘s new distribution centre in MM2100 is now operating with manufacturing to start in 3Q2025, helping to drive longer-term growth. Valuation is attractive versus peer Cimory with growth outlook improving. 

Criterium Energy Ltd: Onshore Gas Development Takes Centre Stage with Potentially Much Lower Capex

By Auctus Advisors

  • 4Q24 production was 957 bbld (880 bbl/d in 3Q24).
  • January’s production so far is 1,020 bbl/d.
  • This excludes the impact of the last four workovers of the 2024 programme.

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Jan 18
0

Daily Brief Indonesia: AKR Corporindo and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ) – Smelters and Gas Stations Bring Opportunity

AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ) – Smelters and Gas Stations Bring Opportunity

By Angus Mackintosh

  • AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ) hosted an analyst call to outline prospects for 2025, which revealed a more positive outlook for fuel distribution driven by growth in demand from mining. 
  • The chemical distribution will also benefit from demand from new smelters as well as new chemicals, whilst land sales at JIIPE are set to increase significantly in 2025. 
  • The retail gas station business is picking up momentum and should benefit from the government reducing fuel subsidies. Valuations are attractive with support from a 7% dividend yield.

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Jan 17
0

Daily Brief Indonesia: Wintermar Offshore Marine and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Wintermar Offshore Marine (WINS IJ) – Well-Positioned for the Upcycle

Wintermar Offshore Marine (WINS IJ) – Well-Positioned for the Upcycle

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Wintermar Offshore Marine has seen a distinct turnaround in its fortunes over the last two years and is now well-positioned to benefit from an upcycle in the Offshore Services space. 
  • Charter rates have started to move up in an environment with low vessel supply, especially in the high-tier space where Wintermar has most exposure with new vessels being added. 
  • Wintermar has net cash, putting it in a strong position to increase its fleet into the upcycle driven by increased offshore exploration in Southeast Asia. Valuations remain attractive.

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Jan 09
0

Daily Brief Indonesia: Aspirasi Hidup Indonesia and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Aspirasi Hidup Indonesia (ACES IJ) – Rebranded as AZKO

Aspirasi Hidup Indonesia (ACES IJ) – Rebranded as AZKO

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Aspirasi Hidup Indonesia (ACES IJ) has forged ahead with its rebranding after ending its licensing agreement with ACES US, changing its store branding to AZKO from 1st January 2025.
  • The new branding has already been rolled out to several stores but the company has given a 3-month window for all storefronts to be completed across Indonesia. 
  • We view this rebranding exercise as an opportunity for the company to lift sales further through heavy promotions and a more aggressive store rollout. Valuations remain attractive relative to history.

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Jan 06
0

Daily Brief Indonesia: Japfa Comfeed Indonesia and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Jan 2025): Identifying Potential Index Changes

LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Jan 2025): Identifying Potential Index Changes

By Brian Freitas

  • The review period for the LQ45 Index January rebalance ended 31 December. The changes should be announced the last week of January, becoming effective after the close on 31 January.
  • We highlight 4 potential inclusions and 4 potential exclusions for the index at the rebalance. The actual number of changes could be lower at 2-3 a side.
  • Nearly all stocks will have over 1x ADV to trade from passive trackers if they are added to or deleted from the index.

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