Category

Technical Analysis

Jul 27
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Pullback Underway; Getting Defensive; Long-Term RS Bottoms for Defensives Is a Reason for Caution and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Pullback Underway; Getting Defensive; Long-Term RS Bottoms for Defensives Is a Reason for Caution

Pullback Underway; Getting Defensive; Long-Term RS Bottoms for Defensives Is a Reason for Caution

By Joe Jasper

  • Our long-term bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact. With that said, we believe a 1-3-month pullback has likely begun.
  • Supports to watch are at $110 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and $41-42 on MSCI EM (EEM-US), and whether these levels hold or not will determine the severity of the pullback.
  • The S&P 500 is violating its 20-day MA, Europe’s EURO STOXX 50 is breaking below 4884, and Japan’s TOPIX appears to be staging a false breakout at the 2800-2815 level

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Jul 25
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Monitoring Small- Vs. Large-Caps and Growth Vs. Value; $SPX and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Monitoring Small- Vs. Large-Caps and Growth Vs. Value; $SPX, $QQQ in Pullback Mode

Monitoring Small- Vs. Large-Caps and Growth Vs. Value; $SPX, $QQQ in Pullback Mode

By Joe Jasper

  • Breadth has expanded significantly in recent weeks with the Russell 2000 (IWM) breaking above major 2.5-year resistance at $210; $210 is now critical support moving forward.
  • Technology/Large-Cap growth/Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has consolidated after getting extended, and with June 12 gap support on QQQ getting filled/breaking today, it appears this pullback is likely to continue.
  • The SPX is breaking its 20-day MA. June 12th gap at 5375-5409 is potential support, but it appears a pullback in the SPX and QQQ may be headed to 5191/$449.

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Jul 20
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Rotation Continues; Bullish Outlook Intact; Buys in Global Financials and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Rotation Continues; Bullish Outlook Intact; Buys in Global Financials, Industrials, Discretionary

Rotation Continues; Bullish Outlook Intact; Buys in Global Financials, Industrials, Discretionary

By Joe Jasper

  • Our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact. Continue to ride this trend higher and buy dips as long as ACWI-US and EEM-US remain above supports at $110 and $41-$42.
  • In our previous Int’l Compass (June 27) we discussed the rotation that we believed was starting, whereby global Technology (IXN-US) would consolidate as investors rotate to laggard areas.
  • This rotation has continued while Technology goes through a healthy consolidation. Continue to focus on other more value-oriented Sectors while Technology/growth consolidates

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Jul 13
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Time To Look Abroad? and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Time To Look Abroad?

Time To Look Abroad?

By Douglas Busch

  • US markets suffered a bearish reversal on CPI data. Time look to elsewhere?
  • China looks to be bottoming. Could the region begin to show relative strength?
  • Emerging markets look particularly attractive especially if the dollar trades lower.

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Jul 10
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Play the Hand You’re Dealt; Bullish Outlook Intact; Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth; Tech Buys and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Play the Hand You’re Dealt; Bullish Outlook Intact; Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth; Tech Buys

Play the Hand You’re Dealt; Bullish Outlook Intact; Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth; Tech Buys

By Joe Jasper

  • We continue to play the hand we have been dealt; i.e., riding the trend higher on the SPX and Nasdaq 100, and being overweight large-cap growth
  • Russell 1000 GrowthVs.Value ratio is breaking out from a 4-year base, suggesting growth’s outperformance is likely to continue in the months ahead. Growth outperforming during bull markets is no surprise.
  • Latest bullish developments include the equal-weighted Nasdaq 100 (QQQE) breaking out from a 4-month base, while Discretionary (XLY) displays a 6-month base breakout and RS is reversing its YTD downtrend

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Jul 03
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth; Downgrading Materials to Underweight; Software Buys $MSTR $CRWD and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth; Downgrading Materials to Underweight; Software Buys $MSTR $CRWD

Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth; Downgrading Materials to Underweight; Software Buys $MSTR $CRWD

By Joe Jasper

  • Mega-Cap growth names such as AMZN, TSLA, MSFT, GOOGL, and META have picked up the slack as semiconductors (SMH, SOXX, NVDA, AVGO, etc.) are simply consolidating after getting extended.
  • This was a possibility we discussed in last week’s Compass (6/25/24), which means we are not seeing any lasting rotation away from large-cap growth.
  • We remain bullish on all names listed (including the semiconductors), and we continue to recommend an overweight to large-cap growth (relative to value) as initially discussed in our 5/29/24 Compass

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Jun 29
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Reiterating Japan Overweight — Add Exposure; Nikkei 225 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Reiterating Japan Overweight — Add Exposure; Nikkei 225, TOPIX, TOPIX Small All Breaking Out

Reiterating Japan Overweight — Add Exposure; Nikkei 225, TOPIX, TOPIX Small All Breaking Out

By Joe Jasper

  • Our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact. We continue to recommend buying dips as long as MSCI $ACWI and $EEM remain above important supports at $110 and $41-$42, respectively.
  • We are reiterating Japan as an Overweight — Add Exposure; Nikkei 225, TOPIX, TOPIX Small All Breaking Out. And 2+ year RS uptrends remain intact on TOPIX and Nikkei 225
  • We take a break from recommending Technology (though we are still bullish) and highlight buys within global Energy, Health Care, Telecommunications, and Utilities

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Jun 26
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Rotation Is the Lifeblood of a Bull Market; Still Bullish; Supports at SPX 5370-5380 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Rotation Is the Lifeblood of a Bull Market; Still Bullish; Supports at SPX 5370-5380, QQQ $468-469

Rotation Is the Lifeblood of a Bull Market; Still Bullish; Supports at SPX 5370-5380, QQQ $468-469

By Joe Jasper

  • Semiconductors (SMH,SOXX,NVDA,AVGO) have been leadership since late-2022, but they’re extended and starting to see profit taking as market participants rotate into other laggard areas of the market (especially Energy).
  • The question is whether this new trend lasts a few days, or if this is the start of longer-term trend.
  • If there will be any lasting rotation away from Technology/semiconductors, SPX and QQQ would need to break strong short-term supports at 5370-5380 and $468-469, respectively. Until then, Tech/semis remain leadership

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Jun 22
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Downgrading Europe to Market Weight; Europe Indexes Still Bullish (Price); Bullish Outlook Intact and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Downgrading Europe to Market Weight; Europe Indexes Still Bullish (Price); Bullish Outlook Intact

Downgrading Europe to Market Weight; Europe Indexes Still Bullish (Price); Bullish Outlook Intact

By Joe Jasper

  • Not much has changed since our latest Int’l Compass from May 31, 2024 titled “Buy the Pullback.” 
  • We were buyers of the pullback in global equities (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, EM, Europe, Japan, Taiwan, etc.) with important supports holding, combined with ongoing healthy market dynamics.
  • Supports are holding, and our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact. Continue to buy dips.

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Jun 19
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Bullish Outlook Intact; Downgrading Industrials and Transportation to Underweight and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Bullish Outlook Intact; Downgrading Industrials and Transportation to Underweight

Bullish Outlook Intact; Downgrading Industrials and Transportation to Underweight

By Joe Jasper

  • Despite some more mixed signals, a majority of market dynamics still suggests a risk-on environment. Our bullish outlook since early November 2023 remains intact with SPX and QQQ uptrends intact.
  • Near-Term we continue to expect to see support at the 20-day MA and 21-day EMA on the SPX (currently 5325-5330) and QQQ (currently $460-462).
  • Longer-Term, we’re bullish as long as the SPX is above 5191 and QQQ is above $449. We’d need to see breakdowns below these levels in order to shift to neutral.

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