Category

Technical Analysis

Nov 19
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Bullish Reversals Continue: TAIEX and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Bullish Reversals Continue: TAIEX, KOSPI, AEX, Hang Seng, CSI 300. Buy Cyclicals/Growth on Pullbacks

Bullish Reversals Continue: TAIEX, KOSPI, AEX, Hang Seng, CSI 300. Buy Cyclicals/Growth on Pullbacks

By Joe Jasper

  • The bear market rally that we have discussed since our Sept. 29 Int’l Compass has managed to surpass our price targets, which were YTD downtrends on the ACWX-US and EFA-US.
  • As a result of these bullish reversals and breakdowns on the US dollar (DXY) and 10-year Treasury yield, we are upgrading our outlook to neutral.
  • Buy ideas on a pullback in: Consumer Discretionary, Energy, and Technology/Tech Services

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Nov 18
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Buy This Give Back and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Buy This Give Back
  • HIBOR, Country Garden, Meituan, Tencent, and HSBC

Buy This Give Back

By Thomas Schroeder

  • US equities give back post PPI is a buying opportunity within our Q4 bull framework. The conviction trade is to sell USD upticks with lower yields in store into December.
  • Sell the USD into Dec which supports turn around plays in Asia. DXY 103 is our bull support to stage a fresh rise. How will yields respond?
  • SPX 3,850 buy support with 4,100/200 the Q4 target to top build ahead of a fresh Q1 bear cycle. Summer bounce similarities.

HIBOR, Country Garden, Meituan, Tencent, and HSBC

By Untying The Gordian Knot

  • The headlines of sweeping changes in the property market easing and Xi’s G-20 meetings to signal the thawing of foreign relationships were the main drivers of the continued rally early in the week.
  • What has been very different in this rally is the robust Southbound Inflows indicating strong interest from mainland investors but (yes, there is always one) it does not tie up the sharp rise in short-end HIBOR.
  • The HIBOR rise could be due to the drawdown of the large-margin loan in support of this rally. I have not found data to support or rebuff such a thesis.

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Nov 16
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Rally Continues Following Breaks in USD & 10-Yr Yield; Buy Ideas in Energy & Consumer Discretionary and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Rally Continues Following Breaks in USD & 10-Yr Yield; Buy Ideas in Energy & Consumer Discretionary
  • Oracle Corporation (ORCL US): TSS < 10 - Target Tactical 4.0% to 5.5% Decline

Rally Continues Following Breaks in USD & 10-Yr Yield; Buy Ideas in Energy & Consumer Discretionary

By Joe Jasper

  • Our Russell 2000 (IWM) and S&P 500 targets for this rally have been the 200-day MAs, coinciding with YTD downtrends.
  • The Russell already hit this target while the S&P is closing in, less than 1% away.
  • Still, the vast majority of signals point to further upside ahead for the market indexes, and a possible end to the bear market.

Oracle Corporation (ORCL US): TSS < 10 - Target Tactical 4.0% to 5.5% Decline

By David Coloretti, CMT

  • Oracle Corporation (ORCL US) has rallied 30% in October/November 2022.  
  • A new 2 month high of 79.53 was produced on Monday 14 November amid extreme bearish ST momentum failure. 
  • Our TSS methodology triggered a Trend Sustainability Score (TSS) < 10 at the high and justifies a further 4.0% to 5.5% decline in the coming 1-2 weeks.

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Nov 14
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: USD Breakdown a Tailwind for Asia and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • USD Breakdown a Tailwind for Asia

USD Breakdown a Tailwind for Asia

By Thomas Schroeder

  • We were transitioning to short USD at DXY 114 and 113 ahead of the touted break below trendline support that is now unfolding. Our pullback target is DXY 103.
  • A weaker USD is acting as a key risk turn for EM and Asian equities (EEM bull from 34).
  • The USD breakdown is accompanied by a clear yield support break that is perhaps the higher conviction bet into a recession.

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Nov 12
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Positive Character Changes; MSCI ACWI Ex-US and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Positive Character Changes; MSCI ACWI Ex-US, EAFE, STOXX 50, Countless Others Reversing Downtrends
  • Country Garden, China Resource Land, Alibaba, and HSBC

Positive Character Changes; MSCI ACWI Ex-US, EAFE, STOXX 50, Countless Others Reversing Downtrends

By Joe Jasper

  • The bear market rally we have discussed since our Sept. 29 Int’l Compass has managed to surpass our price targets, which were the YTD downtrends on the ACWX-US and EFA-US.
  • As you will see below, many countries are reversing topside their 6.5-month to YTD downtrends.
  • As a result of these bullish reversals and breakdowns on the US dollar (DXY) and 10-year Treasury yield, we are upgrading our outlook to neutral. Buy on pullbacks.

Country Garden, China Resource Land, Alibaba, and HSBC

By Untying The Gordian Knot

  • Wish had more conviction for writing this update. The framework for determining if the bounce is durable or if a trend reversal has occurred is not working or is not clear.
  • Stocks that could see tailwinds and drivers for a sustained rally do not have the Volume to confirm the trend change.
  • At the same time, stocks with massive headwinds and structural issues have high Volumes.

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Nov 11
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd (TSM US): TSS Target Achieved in 3 Days (+13.4%) and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd (TSM US): TSS Target Achieved in 3 Days (+13.4%)

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd (TSM US): TSS Target Achieved in 3 Days (+13.4%)

By David Coloretti, CMT

  • The development of TSS has been a life’s work. We are pleased to acknowledge that our second TSS publication on Smartkarma produced an impressive and rapid result.
  • On 7 November we determined that the new interim downtrend low below 59.51 had failed and would likely produce a minimum 6-8% correction in 1-2 weeks. 
  • TSM US subsequently produced a 13.4% gain in the following 3 days. Job done! Chart and further details attached.

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Nov 09
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: SPX Meeting Tactical Top Target and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • SPX Meeting Tactical Top Target

SPX Meeting Tactical Top Target

By Thomas Schroeder

  • RTY long is falling short of our 1,850 PT. SPX met the 3,820/40 tactical top target outlined last week (rally from SPX 3,700). A C-wave decline is expected to 3,650.
  • DXY near support while yield remains elevated is at odds. DXY rally due from 110/109.50 and if yield push higher will see equities buckle.
  • NDX is the U/P short to add back to below 11,300. SPX long support zone rests at 3,650/20 with 3,600 the critical pivot to spur a fresh rise.

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Nov 04
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: SPX Pullback near Target with RTY Buy In and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • SPX Pullback near Target with RTY Buy In

SPX Pullback near Target with RTY Buy In

By Thomas Schroeder

  • SPX dual top at 3,928 rolled just under the 3,950 top target. Break of wedge support was the touted trigger to add to our short group. 10yr 4.20% PT met.
  • SPX 3,700/650 is our pullback target add to risk but we must get past the NFP report first. RTY is our top long pick in the US at trendline.
  • Asia shorts (HSI and Taiwan) and Asia longs to layer into (NKY and ASX). Levels to coordinate with SPX 3,660 support.

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Nov 02
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Tesla Motors Buy Level for Drive to 255 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Tesla Motors Buy Level for Drive to 255
  • Bear Market Rally Continues; Financials/XLF Reversing YTD Downtrend; Small-Caps at 11-Month RS Highs

Tesla Motors Buy Level for Drive to 255

By Thomas Schroeder

  • TSLA (US) shows near term upside that is expected to fade and set up a better entry level below 200 with stiff resistance near the 255 target.
  • Macro descending wedge is the dominant driver into 2023 with lower wedge support at 180/160 and upper pattern resistance at 330 currently and will shift lower with time translation.
  • Buy volumes on this bounce have tapered off, suggesting this rise is corrective in nature and why our buy target revolves around a new low.

Bear Market Rally Continues; Financials/XLF Reversing YTD Downtrend; Small-Caps at 11-Month RS Highs

By Joe Jasper

  • The market remains in bear market rally mode, and our price target remains the 200-day MAs on the SPX and Russell 2000, as discussed in last week’s Compass (Oct. 25).
  • Longer-Term, this is still a bear market until the S&P 500 and IWM can break above their respective YTD downtrends/200-day MAs, and markets could easily test their lows again.
  • With that said, there are signs that suggest breakouts above YTD downtrends/200-day MAs could be coming. Catalysts include the FOMC announcement on Wednesday, followed by midterm elections on Nov. 8.

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Oct 31
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: SPX 3 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • SPX 3,500 Transitioning Higher

SPX 3,500 Transitioning Higher

By Thomas Schroeder

  • Our bullish risk call at SPX 3,500 has panned out nicely while using our short group to sell squeeze rallies. Increasing evidence sides with a more bullish November for risk.
  • USD and the US 10yr yield face pivot support with a tactical bounce bias. Conviction is to sell the USD and Yield into strength.
  • RTY long from 1,650 has been the star performer while shorting the NDX on squeeze spiked has worked fairly well. Update SPX, RTY and NDX buy and sell level outlined.

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