Category

Technical Analysis

Aug 19
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Nifty Top Zone for a Pullback and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Nifty Top Zone for a Pullback
  • HSI Index, HSITECH Index, Hong Kong Stock Exchange, and China Unicom

Nifty Top Zone for a Pullback

By Thomas Schroeder

  • Nifty’s near linear rise much like drives in January and March that turned on a dime. Once a top was in, the Nifty turned down hard.
  • RSIs are extremely overbought and have formed rising wedges that show risk of a sharp turn lower as in previous cycles.
  • Nifty banks kissed the 39,500-sell resistance and showing relative lead weakness versus the Nifty.

HSI Index, HSITECH Index, Hong Kong Stock Exchange, and China Unicom

By Untying The Gordian Knot

  • The market pivoted late last week from there will be no PBOC rates cut to there being much more Monetary Policy support needed.
  • The pivot was the sharp slowdown in Aggregate Financing, Industrial Production, Real estate, and Retail Sales. All it took was a 10-bps cut in one-year MLF.
  • Meanwhile, Hong Kong saw HIBOR continue to rise even with currency strength.

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Aug 18
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Meituan Bear Pressure Accelerating and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Meituan Bear Pressure Accelerating

Meituan Bear Pressure Accelerating

By Thomas Schroeder

  • June 27 call to sell strength in line and showing increasing downside pressure below the 185 support (now resistance).
  • Dual top at 210 induced a turn well under trendline resistance. Break of bear wedge support confirmed the macro sell signal.
  • Below 166 targets 140 where a stall in the decline/bounce is due (resistance near 160-66) but expected to give way for a test on the 110 low zone.

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Aug 15
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: SPX Summer Extension and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • SPX Summer Extension

SPX Summer Extension

By Thomas Schroeder

  • Our summer risk cycle peak due in early August, shifted right after the SPX clear 4,200 and NDX above trendline resistance. A fresh cycle peak target lies at SPX 4,350.
  • RTY perform over the SPX makes it a top long on the breakout above 1,930 with fresh support at 1,950 and rally PT at 2,050 with risk to 2,080. 
  • SPX 4,170 pivot support is in focus with a call to buy a dip near 4,220 for that final push higher in in August.

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Aug 13
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: U.S. Dollar Topping?; Bullish Reversals Continue; Ideas in Growth/Cyclicals and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • U.S. Dollar Topping?; Bullish Reversals Continue; Ideas in Growth/Cyclicals, Financials

U.S. Dollar Topping?; Bullish Reversals Continue; Ideas in Growth/Cyclicals, Financials

By Joe Jasper

  • This is now the third Int’l Compass/third week in a row where we are discussing an increasing number of country indexes experiencing bullish 3.5-9-month downtrend reversals.
  • Importantly, all of the previously mentioned indexes are holding above their breakout levels (i.e., there has yet to be any failed breakouts).
  • Now, the U.S. dollar (DXY) is starting to show early signs of topping. We continue to believe that global equities are going through a bottoming process.

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Aug 12
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: HSI Index: Longfor and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • HSI Index: Longfor, Alibaba, Ping An, and Tencent

HSI Index: Longfor, Alibaba, Ping An, and Tencent

By Untying The Gordian Knot

  • The carnage in China and some Hong Kong real estate and property management companies and financials went largely unnoticed.
  • The five-day decline in Longfor was 18%, Country Garden by 15.50%, Hang Seng Mainland Properties Index fell 6.75%, and HSI Properties Index fell 2.75%.
  • It has had zero impact on the rest of the world (ROW) markets.

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Aug 10
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Tencent New Lows in Sight and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Tencent New Lows in Sight
  • S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Testing Key Resistance Levels; Pause Likely; Buying Biotech

Tencent New Lows in Sight

By Thomas Schroeder

  • Tencent short from 390 is rewarding and reaching for new chart lows now that the 310 pivot support has given way and leading the likes of BABA.
  • MACD target support is the key input to align with a terminal wave 5 low to set up the macro long entry in September.
  • Undershoot risk to lower channel support with a low due in September and rally hurdles toward year end at 370/390. 420 remains the forward macro barrier to challenge/clear.

S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Testing Key Resistance Levels; Pause Likely; Buying Biotech

By Joe Jasper

  • The weight of the evidence suggests that the lows for this bear market have likely already been established, but that does not mean it will be smooth sailing from here.
  • The SPX and NDX are both testing important resistance levels (4165-4180 and the YTD downtrend, respectively), making this a logical spot for the indexes to stall and potentially pull back.
  • Ultimately, we would expect to see support near their 50-day MAs as the market goes through a bottoming process. We remain neutral overall.

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Aug 08
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: WTI 85 Rally Pivot Will Shift the Inflation Narrative and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • WTI 85 Rally Pivot Will Shift the Inflation Narrative

WTI 85 Rally Pivot Will Shift the Inflation Narrative

By Thomas Schroeder

  • WTI bear call from 116 is meeting our 89/85 low zone with a key turn target near 85 that will spur a rally and shift inflation expectations.
  • The touted break down from triangulation is setting up a key low. We did reduce our short at 89 with a plan to close the remaining tranche on weakness.
  • RSI is not confirming new price lows for a case of bull divergence. A macro low is setting up if the 85 support holds and induces a bull turn.

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Aug 06
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Bullish Reversals Proliferate; Stick With Growth; Buy Ideas in Tech and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Bullish Reversals Proliferate; Stick With Growth; Buy Ideas in Tech, Discretionary, & Industrials

Bullish Reversals Proliferate; Stick With Growth; Buy Ideas in Tech, Discretionary, & Industrials

By Joe Jasper

  • Last week we noted that the bullish reversals had begun, with the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), STOXX Europe 50, and SPX the first few to reverse topside their 4-month downtrends.
  • As we discuss below, bullish reversals are proliferating globally, something that continues to support our belief that global equities are bottoming.
  • Global growth Sectors continue to gain momentum and have emerged as leadership — overweight growth. Sectors covered today include Technology, Consumer Discretionary, and Industrials — add exposure

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Aug 05
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Xiaomi and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Xiaomi, China Unicom, and Bank Of China

Xiaomi, China Unicom, and Bank Of China

By Untying The Gordian Knot

  • The Hong Kong Indices have been much weaker than Taiwan & China due to liquidity and open capital account.
  • It is a canary for global indices and should be analyzed accordingly.
  • There is no change in views of real estate and technology sector stocks mentioned in previous updates on Hang Seng constituents.

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Aug 03
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Fresh Shorts in Our Early August Peak Risk Window and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Fresh Shorts in Our Early August Peak Risk Window
  • S&P 500 Reverses 4-Month Downtrend; Upgrading Consumer Discretionary to Market Weight

Fresh Shorts in Our Early August Peak Risk Window

By Thomas Schroeder

  • In addition to shorting NDX at 13,000+, we saw key reversals in Japan and Taiwan after hitting short entry levels. Germany short is in focus as Europe tops.
  • Japan and Taiwan registered key reversals with NKY 27k and Taiwan 14,600 pivots to break.
  • Early August peak in the risk cycle ahead of a more brutal September period.

S&P 500 Reverses 4-Month Downtrend; Upgrading Consumer Discretionary to Market Weight

By Joe Jasper

  • In last week’s Compass (July 26) we discussed positive signals that we believe suggested the lows for this bear market may have already been established, or that downside is limited.
  • We continue to see more evidence that supports this claim; as a result, we are upgrading our outlook to neutral.
  • The SPX is reversing topside its 4-month downtrend, and the Russell 2000 (IWM), Russell Micro-Caps (IWC), and Russell 2000Growth (IWO) are each reversing topside their 9-month downtrends; the bottom’s in.

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