Category

Technical Analysis

Aug 28
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Upgrading Utilities to Overweight; Expecting $SPX to Roll Over; NVDA and SMH Topping? and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Upgrading Utilities to Overweight; Expecting $SPX to Roll Over; NVDA and SMH Topping?

Upgrading Utilities to Overweight; Expecting $SPX to Roll Over; NVDA and SMH Topping?

By Joe Jasper

  • The SPX is back near YTD highs and testing resistance in the 5670-5783 range, and we view this as an ideal time to reduce risk and shift to defensives.
  • We continue to believe that the SPX and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) are going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation that could end up being a topping pattern.
  • After laying out expectations in our 8/13/24 Compass report for a bounce and test of YTD highs, we now expect SPX to roll over near current levels 

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Aug 23
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Shift Now to Defensives; Snap-Back Rally Testing Resistance $ACWI $SPX; Neutral Outlook Intact and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Shift Now to Defensives; Snap-Back Rally Testing Resistance $ACWI $SPX; Neutral Outlook Intact

Shift Now to Defensives; Snap-Back Rally Testing Resistance $ACWI $SPX; Neutral Outlook Intact

By Joe Jasper

  • Snap-Back rallies have continued in the largest global equity markets (U.S., Japan, and Europe).
  • Japan’s TOPIX is still below 2690-2700 and the EURO STOXX 50 is below 4884, and whether they roll over here or from marginally higher levels, lower highs remain likely.
  • It all fits with our ongoing belief (since our July 25, 2024 Int’l Compass) that MSCI ACWI is going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation (we are one month in).

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Aug 21
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Snap-Back Rally Tests YTD Highs; Apr. 2000 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Snap-Back Rally Tests YTD Highs; Apr. 2000, Aug. 2007, Feb. 2022 $SPX Top Comparisons Still in Play

Snap-Back Rally Tests YTD Highs; Apr. 2000, Aug. 2007, Feb. 2022 $SPX Top Comparisons Still in Play

By Joe Jasper

  • We are seeing a broad-based snap-back rally after the S&P 500 found support at our 5100-5191 target/bounce area which we discussed in our 7/30/24 and 8/6/24 Compass reports
  • We are not out of the woods as we still see the $SPX and $QQQ going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation period, and market dynamics remain far from perfect.
  • Apr. 2000, Aug. 2007, Feb. 2022 $SPX top comparisons are why we expected SPX to find support at 5100, AND THEN test YTD highs (8/13/24 Compass report).

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Aug 19
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Time To Buy China/Gold and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Time To Buy China/Gold

Time To Buy China/Gold

By Douglas Busch

  • Gold breaks above MONTHLY bull flag suggesting possible move to 3000.
  • Is China ready to duplicate prior move we witnessed in Nikkei?
  • BABA looks technically attractive and could reach par by year-end.

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Aug 14
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Downgrading Discretionary to UW; 2000 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Downgrading Discretionary to UW; 2000, 2007, 2022 SPX Top Similarities Suggest Test of YTD Highs

Downgrading Discretionary to UW; 2000, 2007, 2022 SPX Top Similarities Suggest Test of YTD Highs

By Joe Jasper

  • We downgraded our long-term outlook to neutral last week (8/6/24 Compass) after being bullish since early-November 2023. We still believe the SPX is going through a 1-to 4-month consolidation phase.
  • It is possible the low for this consolidation has been established within our expected pullback zone of 5100-5191 that we discussed two weeks ago (7/30/24 Compass)
  • In terms of upside, the SPX could test its YTD highs or make a marginal new high, or could also see it roll over at the 5400 or 5585 resistances.

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Aug 09
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Downgrading Japan; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI to Neutral and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Downgrading Japan; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI to Neutral

Downgrading Japan; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI to Neutral

By Joe Jasper

  • We continue to believe a 1-4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing. Important supports have been violated, including $110 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and $41 on MSCI EM (EEM-US).
  • We’re shifting our outlook to neutral on $ACWI after being bullish since early-November 2023. Major price breakdowns combined with deteriorating market dynamics have increased the odds of a topping pattern.
  • Also downgrading Japan to market weight. 7/25/24 we said “Japan’s TOPIX breaking below 2800-2815 is near-term bearish, suggests it could pull back to its long-term uptrend, or worse.”

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Aug 07
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Downgrading Outlook on $SPX; Upgrading Real Estate and Staples. Many Significant Risk-Off Signals and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Downgrading Outlook on $SPX; Upgrading Real Estate and Staples. Many Significant Risk-Off Signals

Downgrading Outlook on $SPX; Upgrading Real Estate and Staples. Many Significant Risk-Off Signals

By Joe Jasper

  • We are downgrading our long-term outlook to neutral (had been bullish since early-November 2023) due to rapidly deteriorating market dynamics
  • We still believe the S&P 500 is going through a 1- to 4-month consolidation phase, but odds have increased that this consolidation phase could be a topping pattern.
  • SPX is initially holding at 5100-5191 as discussed last week, but we’re not interested in knife-catching or picking a bottom, want to see stabilization/price discovery before adjusting our still-defensive posture.

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Aug 06
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Time to Buy Japan? and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Time to Buy Japan?

Time to Buy Japan?

By Douglas Busch

  • Nikkei looking oversold on all daily, WEEKLY, and MONTHLY timeframes.
  • KWEB records strong bullish engulfing candle on weak overall tape Monday.
  • MELI versus AMZN ratio chart favoring the former. Technical complexion change.

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Aug 03
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Pullback Continues $ACWI; Stick With Defensives; More Countries With Improving Price and RS Trends and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Pullback Continues $ACWI; Stick With Defensives; More Countries With Improving Price and RS Trends

Pullback Continues $ACWI; Stick With Defensives; More Countries With Improving Price and RS Trends

By Joe Jasper

  • We believe a 1-4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing, and we would look for an important low to be made near the U.S. election.
  • Supports to watch continue to be $110 on $ACWI and $41-42 on MSCI EM $EEM, and whether these levels hold or not will determine the severity of the pullback.
  • Primary reasons for this bearish expectation include major bullish RS inflections for defensive Sectors, and bearish price action in the U.S. (SPX), Japan (TOPIX/Nikkei 225), and Europe (EURO STOXX 50)

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Jul 31
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Upgrading Health Care to Market Weight; Risk-Off Signals Suggest SPX and QQQ Pullback to Continue and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Upgrading Health Care to Market Weight; Risk-Off Signals Suggest SPX and QQQ Pullback to Continue

Upgrading Health Care to Market Weight; Risk-Off Signals Suggest SPX and QQQ Pullback to Continue

By Joe Jasper

  • Breadth continues to improve and Russell 2000 (IWM) small-caps and the Dow remain bullish, all while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) are going through a pullback/consolidation phase.
  • Considering the Russell 2000 vs. S&P 500 ratio is reversing a 3.5-year downtrend, we expect this trend of small-cap outperformance to continue for months or longer.
  • With new risk-off signals emerging, potential pullback zones we would look for include 5100-5191 on the S&P 500 and $443-$449 on the QQQ, expecting a low near the election.

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