Category

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Jul 22
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Why Temasek Is Steering Clear of China’s Generative AI Stock Frenzy for Now and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Why Temasek Is Steering Clear of China’s Generative AI Stock Frenzy for Now
  • Japan Weekly | Nidec, Fast Retailing, BayCurrent
  • Payment Companies – 1H 2023 in Review, Our High Conviction Calls for 2H 2023

Why Temasek Is Steering Clear of China’s Generative AI Stock Frenzy for Now

By Caixin Global

  • Investment firm Temasek International Pte. Ltd. will keep a close eye on the long-term prospects of generative artificial intelligence (AI) in China, but will hold off on investing in mainland-listed stocks in the industry given their lack of fundamentals, the company’s China president said.
  • The state-owned Singaporean firm hasn’t made a single investment on the mainland in artificial-intelligence generated content (AIGC) stocks, a term commonly used for shares related to generative AI, Wu Yibing told Caixin in an interview on July 13.
  • Fueled by the success of ChatGPT, AIGC concept stocks have rallied this year, making them one of the few segments in China’s sluggish domestic market that have experienced significant growth.

Japan Weekly | Nidec, Fast Retailing, BayCurrent

By Mark Chadwick

  • The benchmark index Nikkei 225 closed the week at 32,304 – 87 points lower than the week before. Blame it on the global tech sell-off
  • Nidec reported Q1 earnings that trounced analyst expectations – mine included. The stock rose 13% over the week
  • BayCurrent reported Q1 earnings that missed Street expectations. As Japan earnings season moves into full gear, expect more single stock volatility

Payment Companies – 1H 2023 in Review, Our High Conviction Calls for 2H 2023

By Victor Galliano

  • In 1H23 and in the early part of 3Q23, our longs – Visa, Wise and PagSeguro – delivered positive returns; our shorts, DLocal and Kakao Pay, were also modestly successful
  • Ahead of results to June 2023, we retain card network megacap Visa as a core holding, as well as PagSeguro; we add PayPal and drop Wise from the buy list
  • We keep our negative view on DLocal and add Affirm, given high take-rates and  premium valuations; we stick with our negative on Kakao Pay due to its lofty multiples

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Jul 21
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan|Nasdaq and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan|Nasdaq, SOX Plunge-Did Something Finally Break?; NUGGET: In Demand in Japan – IR Talent
  • Is China’s Boycott of Germanium Gallium to the US Meaningful?
  • China Property Developers In Distress – Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | 14-20 July 2023
  • China TMT Update-BEKE/2150HK/3690HK-Meituan Recruiting 3P Delivery Partners in Lower Tier Markets

Ohayo Japan|Nasdaq, SOX Plunge-Did Something Finally Break?; NUGGET: In Demand in Japan – IR Talent

By Mark Chadwick

  • OVERSEAS. Nasdaq and SOX Plunged overnight; Nasdaq on Tesla, Neflix; SOX on TSMC Sentiment;   Has something broken?  US Leading Index saying recession near; China deflationary pressures; Russia escalates war
  • JAPAN. NKY Futures -0.5% disc vs Cash; USDJPY 140.1;  Eyes on BOJ  but indications are no tweak;  Nidec turns it around – strong 1Q; Raft of BUY calls from Street.
  • NUGGET. Japanese companies are hiring IR professionals as they face greater scrutiny from shareholders, the TSE, and regulators. Positive development that we see as an offshoot of the governance code.

Is China’s Boycott of Germanium Gallium to the US Meaningful?

By Jim Handy

  • China is considering banning gallium and germanium shipments to the US
  • Semiconductors consume well under 20% of world gallium production, and an almost immeasurably small amount of germanium
  • Very little of the consumption is in the US, indicating that the impact of a boycott should be very small

China Property Developers In Distress – Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | 14-20 July 2023

By Robert Ciemniak

  • A weekly curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress
  • We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news (‘local signals’), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market
  • We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; see direct links to sources

China TMT Update-BEKE/2150HK/3690HK-Meituan Recruiting 3P Delivery Partners in Lower Tier Markets

By Shawn Yang

  • KE Holdings: Beijing plans to standardize the registration and supervision process of real estate brokerage agents, and no mention of commission cap
  • 2150HK : Nayuki officially announced the opening of franchise business with high requirements, bodes well for margin improvement.（+）
  • 3690.HK: Meituan recruiting 3P delivery partners in lower tier markets (+)

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Jul 20
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan |Inflation Moderation Drives Stocks; NUGGET:JP Office Equip Makers- Consolidation a Must and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan |Inflation Moderation Drives Stocks; NUGGET:JP Office Equip Makers- Consolidation a Must
  • Nasdaq Rebalance, Nanya, Camtek, Nordic Semi, Aehr Test, and Positioning
  • China TMT Update-BZ/PDD/3690/NTES/700/Douyin-PDD Launches Local Life Services Portal
  • China’s VBP Policy for Pharmaceuticals – Misunderstandings, Real Impacts, and Outlook
  • Industry Report Climatetech & Sustainable Investing

Ohayo Japan |Inflation Moderation Drives Stocks; NUGGET:JP Office Equip Makers- Consolidation a Must

By Mark Chadwick

  • OVERSEAS.  SPX eaks out gains as markets continue to bid inflation moderation/soft landing narrative; GS Reports the futures is better; TELSA earnings beat despite aggressive price cuts
  • JAPAN. Nikkei Futures flat vs Cash; USDJPY 139.7; Inbound Tourist back in full force; Daily Goods Manufacturers form logistics alliance to combat lack of drivers; Nidec, Disco reports today
  • NUGGET. JP Office Equipment Makers – could be investment opportunities if they are proactive consolidation. Falling demand and overcapacity demands aggressive industry restructuring.

Nasdaq Rebalance, Nanya, Camtek, Nordic Semi, Aehr Test, and Positioning

By Douglas O’Laughlin

  • A quick discussion of the companies that have reported so far, and my thoughts on the semiconductor stock space
  • Pretty much the entire index is going to receive inflows at the expense of the top 8 names.
  • Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Nvidia, Meta, Apple, and Tesla will all be cut from the index weight and redistributed into smaller names on July 24, 2023.

China TMT Update-BZ/PDD/3690/NTES/700/Douyin-PDD Launches Local Life Services Portal

By Shawn Yang

  • Boss Zhipin: Boss Zhipin MAU growth rate is higher than peers’, but still hard to monetize this year.
  • PDD/3690.HK: PDD launches local life services portal (+ / -)
  • NTES/700HK: The Rise of “Gaming with Influencers” on Douyin (+/-)

China’s VBP Policy for Pharmaceuticals – Misunderstandings, Real Impacts, and Outlook

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • In the absence of significant decline in total pharmaceutical expenditure,the most simple logic tells us if some companies/varieties suffer loss in VBP, it inevitably means other companies benefit from it. 
  • For innovative drugs, imported drugs have clear advantage over domestic drugs in both absolute and relative increments. But leading MNCs have been more impacted by VBP in recent years.
  • In this hundreds-of-billion-level payment transfer process, companies are actually competing to provide real clinical value, which is the key to fill the gap caused by VBP and restore companies’ growth.

Industry Report Climatetech & Sustainable Investing

By Water Tower Research

  • WTR Sustainable Index: During the week ended July 14, 2023, the WTR Sustainable Index performed in line with the broader market, rising 2.6% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (up 2.4%), the Russell 2000 Index (up 3.6%), and the Nasdaq Composite Index (up 3.3%). Advanced Transportation Solutions (75.1% of the index) has contributed to the index’s outperformance, rising 2.5%, while Energy Technology (6.7% of the index) was up 6.1% and Industrial Climate and Ag Technology was up 2.0%.

  • Valuation: Based on forward 12-month consensus estimates, the current P/E ratio of the WTR Sustainable index is 24.8x versus 21.0x for the S&P 500.

  • Consensus estimates changes: During the week ended July 14, 2023, there were three increases (two in Advanced Transportation Solutions and one in Industrial Climate and Ag Technology) 2022 revenue estimates. 

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Jul 19
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Bullish Banks and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | Bullish Banks, Ai , US Consumer; NUGGET: Isuzu(7202) – EV Outlook Better for Trucks
  • China TMT Update-BABA/VIPS/JD/PDD/3690.HK/700HK/SE/XPEV-Online Retail Sales Growth；”Arena Breakout”；
  • Sands China Ltd: Possible Earnings Beat in the Crosshairs Based on Parent Gains

Ohayo Japan | Bullish Banks, Ai , US Consumer; NUGGET: Isuzu(7202) – EV Outlook Better for Trucks

By Mark Chadwick

  • OVERSEAS. SPX new 52W highs on Bank earnings, AI (thx to MSFT), and Resilient Retail print; MSFT prices Copilot at high end; US bank CEOs showing optimism.
  • JAPAN. NKY Futures +0.8% vs Cash; USDJPY 138.8; Look for continued follow through in Japan equity bid; Bank bid thematic gaining more traction on BOJ tweak view;   Kishida cabinet reshuffle?
  • NUGGET. Isuzu(7202) – Big EV Spending but Still looks Cheap at 1x PBR. A 15% FY3/26 ROE as per mid term plan makes this look interesting for LT investors here.

China TMT Update-BABA/VIPS/JD/PDD/3690.HK/700HK/SE/XPEV-Online Retail Sales Growth；”Arena Breakout”；

By Shawn Yang

  • BABA/VIPS/JD/PDD/3690.HK: Online retail sales growth steady in June NBS data (+)
  • 700HK/SE:Tencent’s FPS game “Arena Breakout” international version was launched on July 14th (+/-)
  • XPEV : Xpeng denies planning of PHEV pipelines  ( / )

Sands China Ltd: Possible Earnings Beat in the Crosshairs Based on Parent Gains

By Howard J Klein

  • SCL parent Las Vegas Sands reports earnings in two days. We sense a beat coming energized by Macau recovery cycle continuing.
  • SCL continues to hold a 20%+ share of the Macau market and is likely to gain both in the migration of premium mass and mass segment play to its properties.
  • SCL has invested US$1b in renovations and attractions in its Macau properties which will become accretive to EBITDA gains in the quarters ahead. 

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Jul 18
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan|Equities Cruise on No Recession Narrative; NUGGET: JAL(9201) A Double Winner and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan|Equities Cruise on No Recession Narrative; NUGGET: JAL(9201) A Double Winner
  • [Blue Lotus EV Sector Update]: All Solid-State Battery Unlikely to Disrupt EV Market
  • China TMT Update-LI AUTO/Akeso/BEKE-Delay Chongqing Plant/Trial of Cadonilimab BsAb/New Home Sales
  • US PPI: Tailwinds from Transportation Price Collapse Set to Subside in H2 2023
  • The Highlights – Cannabis News for the Week Ending July 14, 2023
  • WRKR Limited – Super Opportunities Ahead

Ohayo Japan|Equities Cruise on No Recession Narrative; NUGGET: JAL(9201) A Double Winner

By Mark Chadwick

  • OVERSEAS.  SPX hit 52W highs as Yellen sees no US Recession;  Rates fall on “inflation behind us” narrative; Global HF unwind bearish US positions; EV WARS as Ford Slashes prices. 
  • JAPAN.  NKY Futures -0.2% vs Cash; USDJPY 138.7%; Japan Back after Marine Day Holidays to lower US rates, stronger yen, Weaker China, and Tech bid; Blackrock lifts Japan stock outlook
  • NUGGET.  JAL(9201) Double Winner(Margins+Emmissions) with Fleet Upgrade. Share price has run, but strong tailwinds on demand and operational efficiency. Watch for pullback to pick up.

[Blue Lotus EV Sector Update]: All Solid-State Battery Unlikely to Disrupt EV Market

By Shawn Yang

  • In early July, Toyota announced a breakthrough in all-solid-state-battery (ASSB) delivering 745 miles per charge and <10-minute charging time. 
  • Currently lithium-ion battery (LIB) can reach 500 miles and 25 minutes; We, however, believe the migration of LIB to ASSB will be a continuous process. 
  • ASSB is expensive to manufacture. Further, mineral reliance on China is unlikely to lessen.

China TMT Update-LI AUTO/Akeso/BEKE-Delay Chongqing Plant/Trial of Cadonilimab BsAb/New Home Sales

By Shawn Yang

  • LI: Li Auto said to postpone the construction of Chongqing plant (-)
  • Akeso started Phase III head-to-head trial of its Cadonilimab BsAb against BeiGene’s Tislelizumab mAb for first line treatment of NSCLC（/）
  • KE Holdings: New home sales remain weak in June, and existing home price trended down for two months, expecting more supportive policy on demand side of property market.

US PPI: Tailwinds from Transportation Price Collapse Set to Subside in H2 2023

By Daniel Hellberg

  • US PPI has steadily eased over the past 15 months, and lower transportation costs have helped
  • US long-distance trucking and international air freight costs have fallen dramatically from the peak, but ocean freight has surprisingly remained close to peak levels
  • We believe falling transportation costs are unlikely to provide “tailwinds” for much longer

The Highlights – Cannabis News for the Week Ending July 14, 2023

By Water Tower Research

  • Global equities rallied this week on softer CPI and PPI reports.

  • One year ago, CPI was 9.1%, compared to last week’s 3.0%, showing the Fed’s action has slowed inflation.

  • This puts less pressure on the Fed to continue raising rates.

WRKR Limited – Super Opportunities Ahead

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Wrkr Ltd (ASX:WRK) offers compliance solutions for Australian superannuation contributions and payroll including member onboarding, clearing, messaging and employee validation.
  • WRK’s product solutions need to address and comply with a range of government regulations that continue to evolve, with examples being Single Touch Payroll 2.0, Your Future Your Super, Pay Day Super, Rollovers 3.0, and the Security of Critical Infrastructure.
  • Such regulations provide somewhat of a moat for competitors looking to enter the space and strong customer retention once secured. 

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Jul 17
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Semiconductor Events Deserving Your Attention @ 16/7/23 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Semiconductor Events Deserving Your Attention @ 16/7/23
  • Japan Screen | Nice Niche Names
  • Semicon West: Big Shifts in the NAND Market
  • Weekly Stock Bullfinder – Week of 7/17
  • SPAC TALK – SPACs and Disappearing Projections

Semiconductor Events Deserving Your Attention @ 16/7/23

By William Keating

  • Gartner reports Q2’23 PC unit shipments amounted to 59.7 million units, a decrease of 16.6% YoY, but an increase of ~8% QoQ
  • TSMC Q2’23 revenue will marginally exceed midpoint of the guided range.
  • Intel CEO second trip to China in 3 months heightens speculation about China’s approval of the pending Tower Semi acquisition. 

Japan Screen | Nice Niche Names

By Mark Chadwick

  • METI identified 113 Japanese companies that were global niche winners – high market share, high margins, and high ratio of overseas sales
  • METI has done a pretty good job of selecting “quality companies” – the group enjoys higher margins and returns on capital than the average Japanese company
  • We screen for the “best of the best” and pick out MANI, one company that has underperformed this year

Semicon West: Big Shifts in the NAND Market

By Douglas O’Laughlin

  • Semicon West is “back”! Participation this year was up 65% compared to 2022, and I believe it’s an all-time high for visitors! Over 25,000 attendees came to Semicon this year, and that’s the best sign that semiconductor manufacturing in the US is back!
  • Amid Applied Material’s new tool Vistara, Lam Research talking about their simulation platform, and Tokyo Electron talking about a new etch tool, there was a flurry of news and product announcements.
  • The most exciting piece of news is Tokyo Electron’s cryogenic etch product. Their new product is a big deal.

Weekly Stock Bullfinder – Week of 7/17

By Weekly Stock Bull Finder

  • After witnessing a parabolic advance at the beginning of the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle in early 2022, the US dollar has decisely break down below prior weekly support levels in a large bearish engulfing candle last week.
  • This breakdown can serve as a tailwind for multi-nationals (especially technology names), commodities, emerging markets, treasuries, and cryptos.
  • The dollar is now sitting at a 15 month low. This decline may not be over as the MACD indicator is now crossing down.

SPAC TALK – SPACs and Disappearing Projections

By Water Tower Research

  • A quiet July…so far. July has been a relatively quiet month to date.
  • Two SPAC IPOs have been priced, which is par for the course in the context of the low-single digit numbers we have been reporting the past twelve months.
  • The exit doors also seem to be less crowded this month, with only nine SPACs scheduled for liquidations vs the average twenty per month that elected to liquidate their trust funds in the first half of the year.

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Jul 16
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): GEMWeekly (14 Jul 2023): China and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • GEMWeekly (14 Jul 2023): China, South Korea Macro; Alibaba, Ant, JD.com, Baidu, Foxconn, TSMC, Wipro
  • China Healthcare Weekly (Jul.14)-TCM Demand Switch, 8% Benchmark Growth Rate, GLP-1 Change Game Rule

GEMWeekly (14 Jul 2023): China, South Korea Macro; Alibaba, Ant, JD.com, Baidu, Foxconn, TSMC, Wipro

By Wium Malan, CFA

China Healthcare Weekly (Jul.14)-TCM Demand Switch, 8% Benchmark Growth Rate, GLP-1 Change Game Rule

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • By comparing medical insurance expenditure and income, as well as the pharmaceutical manufacturing revenues and profits for the same period, we find something interesting. 
  • Due to COVID-19, the sales of TCM in 22Q4 and 23Q1 surged. But in 23Q2-Q4, people’s demand could change. Therefore, the performance of related TCM company would also switch. 
  • New generation weight loss drugs represented by Semaglutide would change the logic and supply-demand relationship of the entire market. This is a situation that investors need to be aware of.

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Jul 15
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): A Deep Dive on China Macro – The RMB and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • A Deep Dive on China Macro – The RMB
  • Japan Weekly | Ryohin Keikaku, Nitori, Advantest, Welcia
  • China Property Developers In Distress – Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | 7-13 July 2023
  • China TMT Update-Premier’s Symposium;a Summary of Meituan Vs Douyin;feedbacks of Amazon Prime Day
  • Chinese Automakers Ride Overseas Demand as Global Expansion Pays Off
  • Large Cap GEM Bank Screener – Our Top Picks

A Deep Dive on China Macro – The RMB

By Jacob Cheng

  • The RMB has undergone significant changes in its history, evolving into a currency with increasing influence on global financial markets
  • RMB has significant impact on China’s economy, mainly through the trade balance (export/import) and its impact on outbound tourism
  • China has made key steps regarding internationalization of the currency, however, full internationalization is dependent on further financial market liberalization and opening up of the capital account.

Japan Weekly | Ryohin Keikaku, Nitori, Advantest, Welcia

By Mark Chadwick

  • The focus was on the currency this week ahead of the next BOJ meeting and waning inflationary pressures in the US. 
  • Japanese stocks were basically flat. Retailers were up first announcing results – those with significant operations in China are doing very well.
  • Advantest continues to defy gravity. The stock is up 200% over the past twelve months. Think about that….a Japanese stock up 200%!

China Property Developers In Distress – Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | 7-13 July 2023

By Robert Ciemniak

  • A weekly curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress
  • We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news (‘local signals’), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market
  • We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; see direct links to sources

China TMT Update-Premier’s Symposium;a Summary of Meituan Vs Douyin;feedbacks of Amazon Prime Day

By Shawn Yang

  • Premier Li Qiang chaired a symposium with internet platform enterprises
  • A summary of recent Meituan local news – counterattack against Douyin is showing initial effectiveness, but Wechat,Kuaishou and Xiaohongshu(Red) are coming
  • Chinese merchants’ feedbacks of this year’s Amazon Prime Day, a summary

Chinese Automakers Ride Overseas Demand as Global Expansion Pays Off

By Caixin Global

  • Chinese auto exports again shot up in the first six months of this year, largely fueled by rising demand for new-energy vehicles (NEVs) and surging deliveries to a sanction-hit Russia, as local carmakers sought to invigorate sales with a push overseas.
  • First-half shipments leapt 75.7% from the same period last year to 2.14 million vehicles, according to a report Tuesday by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM).
  • Overseas shipments of NEVs — a category that consists mainly of pure electric and hybrid models — more than doubled to 534,000 vehicles, accounting for nearly a quarter of the total exports, the CAAM report showed.

Large Cap GEM Bank Screener – Our Top Picks

By Victor Galliano

  • Among the large-cap EM Asia banks, we recommend CCB in China, HDFC Bank in India, Bank Mandiri in Indonesia and Hana Financial in South Korea
  • In LatAm, we turn positive on Banco do Brasil, for its big value attributes and lesser political risk; we turn cautious on Bradesco and stay cautious on Banorte in Mexico
  • Two large-cap names to watch are Credicorp in Peru and Standard Bank of South Africa; both have challenging macro-economic backdrops but sound “bottom up” credentials

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Jul 14
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan| Lower Rates and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan| Lower Rates, Higher Stocks; Crypto Optimism; NUGGET: Hydrogen Future – KHI(7012)Revisit
  • Nanya Q2’23 Results. Doldrums Ahoy!
  • China TMT Update-PDD/BABA/BEKE/LUCKIN- PDD Testing “RMB 9.9” Channel;BEKE Launching “Bei Hao Jia”
  • Mat Chem Notes Week Ending July 9, 2023

Ohayo Japan| Lower Rates, Higher Stocks; Crypto Optimism; NUGGET: Hydrogen Future – KHI(7012)Revisit

By Mark Chadwick

  • OVERSEAS.  Disinflation Trade on as US PPI provides more tailwinds; Rates, USD Fall; Equites rally, More China Stimulus Coming ? Ripple resolution spurs Crypto bid; AI Wars: Meta Updates BARD
  • JAPAN. Nikkei Futures +1% vs Cash; USDJPY 138; Set for Beta bid in Stocks; Blow out Fast Retailing numbers; Barclays see Sept BOJ tweek; Bullish Bank Initiations from UBS
  • NUGGET.  Hydrogen is a key part of JP Govt carbon zero strategy. We see KHI(7012) as a Hydrogen winner and see the recent pullback as a good entry opportunity

Nanya Q2’23 Results. Doldrums Ahoy!

By William Keating

  • Q2’23 revenues of NT$ 7,027 million, up 9.4% sequentially but down 61% YoY. Net losses declined QoQ, mainly due to favourable Fx and Income tax charges
  • Similar to Micron, while bit shipments increased QoQ, ASPs declined. This is not a road to recovery out of the memory segment downturn
  • While customer inventories have largely normalised, supplier inventories remain elevated. Until this corrects or demand surges, Nanya and peers will remain in the doldrums. 

China TMT Update-PDD/BABA/BEKE/LUCKIN- PDD Testing “RMB 9.9” Channel;BEKE Launching “Bei Hao Jia”

By Shawn Yang

  • PDD/BABA: PDD testing large “RMB 9.9” channel entrance on the PDD app homepage (+/-)
  • BEKE: Beike announced to expand business toward industry upstream, establishing “Bei Hao Jia” business line(+)
  • Luckin Coffee & Nayuki: Media survey suggest that coffee price war is hurting milk tea’s business

Mat Chem Notes Week Ending July 9, 2023

By Water Tower Research

  • WTR-CMI last week. In a flat to down market last week, with S&P 500 holding steady with 0.1% price change and Russell 2000 losing 0.9% of its value, our proprietary WTR-CMI index of 30 chemicals and material technology companies appreciated 0.5% for the week, led by 8.5% appreciation in ALB, which seemed to pull along other lithium names, including PLL, LAC and LTHM, which all posted 2-4% returns.

  • EAF was the index’s laggard, losing 9.4% of its value, possibly due to continued softness in the iron ore and steel production sectors.

  • EU relooks at GMO crops. Long a bulwark against expansion of GMO crops, the EU is taking another look at the 2001 rules which were a major obstacle to market penetration by genetically modified seeds that provide better yields, higher nutritional value, and require less water and less pesticides to produce.

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Jul 13
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan| Fed Job Done-Inflation Over and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan| Fed Job Done-Inflation Over, Stocks Rally; NUGGET: BayCurrent – To Leap from DX to AI ?
  • Southeast Asia Plantations: Malaysia Palm Oil Inventories Surprised to the Downside
  • China Extends Policy to Take Pressure off Ailing Property Market
  • [Blue Lotus Innovative Drugs Sector Update]: Biotech-Biopharma Ecosystem Is Coming of Age in China
  • Maverick Valuations #2 – USA: Dow Jones, Nasdaq 100 & The Mighty S&P 500

Ohayo Japan| Fed Job Done-Inflation Over, Stocks Rally; NUGGET: BayCurrent – To Leap from DX to AI ?

By Mark Chadwick

  • OVERSEAS.  Fed job done; Inflation over- Stocks, Bonds Rally, USD falls; China new June new Credit growth accelerates- spurs Resources; Musk launches xAI ; Big Broker Upgrade to Euro Semi
  • JAPAN. NKY Futures +0.3% vs Cash; USDJPY 138.5; US CPI print drives yen strength – headwind to stocks; PayPay to list in US ?  GS Ups Sony to Conviction BUY
  • NUGGET. DX Consultant BayCurrent to report on Friday – Generative AI boom the next driver ?

Southeast Asia Plantations: Malaysia Palm Oil Inventories Surprised to the Downside

By Niklas Olausson

  • Malaysian palm oil inventories for June came in below market expectations, with output surprisingly weak given the increase in foreign workers in the first half of 2023.  
  • Reasons for this is not yet clear, but it is likely structural factors are putting pressure on output, which could exacerbate the anticipated El Niño effect on yields. 
  • Reiterate positive view on Plantation sector equities and the price outlook for crude palm oil (CPO).  Forecasts maintained.   

China Extends Policy to Take Pressure off Ailing Property Market

By Caixin Global

  • China has extended a policy released last year to allow developers to postpone or swap their loans in an effort to shore up the country’s ailing real estate sector.
  • The policy was first released in November 2022 and includes 16 measures that aim to encourage financial institutions to set “reasonable” down payment ratios and interest rates to support demand for mortgages and allow a postponement of loan repayments to help builders complete construction projects.
  • Two of the 16 measures were originally valid for six months and expired in May. Property development loans from banks and trust firms could be extended up to a year if they were due within six months starting from November 11, 2022. 

[Blue Lotus Innovative Drugs Sector Update]: Biotech-Biopharma Ecosystem Is Coming of Age in China

By Shawn Yang

  • Novartis’s forfeit of option to license BeiGene’s (BGNE) Ociperlimab (TIGIT) likely suggested pessimism towards its year-end read-out.  
  • The priority of Tislelizumab in Novartis’s pipeline may also be sidelined; With Chinese innovative drug sales subdued under NDRL, the global biotech model is gaining superiority over local biopharma model.
  • BGNE’s pipeline faces an aging problem, which must be mitigated by smart licensing. We downgrade BGNE to SELL and ZLAB to BUY.

Maverick Valuations #2 – USA: Dow Jones, Nasdaq 100 & The Mighty S&P 500

By Maverick Equity Research

  • To start, the 2023 and 10 years Total Returns & CAGR of the big 3 indices: sentiment is very positive, risk appetite is on and we have a new bull market.
  • Let’s start with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA).
  • Created in 1896, is one of the oldest & most widely recognized stock market indices in the world & and is made up of 30 blue-chip stocks that are considered leaders in their respective industries.

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