Category

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Dec 11
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Winning Streak; IQPS Shooting for the Stars and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | Winning Streak; IQPS Shooting for the Stars
  • Stories Behind the Reported Nov 2023 Taiwan Semi/Tech Sales
  • 2024 China’s Capital Market Outlook – Santa Claus Is Knocking on the Door

Ohayo Japan | Winning Streak; IQPS Shooting for the Stars

By Mark Chadwick

  • Overseas: SPX +0.4%, Nasdaq +0.4%; Six weeks of gains on strength in the job market
  • Today: NKY Futs +0.7% v cash. JPY145/$; Private Equity interest in Tsuruha; Rohm & Toshiba JV on SiC chips
  • JapanX: iQPS, a leader in small satellite SAR technology, recently debuted on the Tokyo Growth Market, securing funds to expand and provide vital real-time data for national security.

Stories Behind the Reported Nov 2023 Taiwan Semi/Tech Sales

By Andrew Lu

  • More clear y/y improvement for 8/12″ raw wafer, WiFi IC, GaAs RF/VCSEL, and memory vendors but more y/y deterioration for OLED/LCD driver, LCD panel, design service, equipment/materials, and foundry vendors.
  • GaAs RF and gaming GPU card vendors showed very impressive y/y sales growth of 54% and 63%, respectively. ABF substrate vendors showed the weakest sales decline of 34% among all.
  • Except A Data (+2.5% m/m) and Phison Electronics (+5.6% m/m) might see stronger share price to reflect stronger November sales, most of others see good/bad news in the price already.

2024 China’s Capital Market Outlook – Santa Claus Is Knocking on the Door

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Based on Fisher’s Law M*V=P*Q, the interest rate hikes in the US and management issues in China have led to continuous decline of V, thus forming the illusion of deflation.
  • The Fed’s rate hike is nearing its end. The huge amount of dollars need to be matched with corresponding assets. The only place with a matching assets pool is China.
  • If there’s a serious economic stagnation, recession, combined with hyperinflation, there may be a historic great depression. How China will respond is the key to determine the future global landscape.

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Dec 10
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Under the Hood of Tesla’s Cybertruck – Hype or Reality? and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Under the Hood of Tesla’s Cybertruck – Hype or Reality?
  • GEMWeekly (8 Dec 2023): China Macro; PDD, Tencent, Naver

Under the Hood of Tesla’s Cybertruck – Hype or Reality?

By Amrutha Raj

  • Cybertruck was first conceptualized by Elon Musk in 2012. Its design epitomizes the Tesla spirit of achieving jaw-dropping engineering feats. How will it impact Tesla’s financials?
  • The Cybertruck offers unique value proposition through its eye-catching design while also offering rapid pickup, large towing capacity, and a compelling battery architecture.
  • Cybertruck is unlikely to affect Tesla’s financial top-line and bottom-line anytime soon. The truck is slated to be cash-flow negative for the next two years.

GEMWeekly (8 Dec 2023): China Macro; PDD, Tencent, Naver

By Wium Malan, CFA

  • The Global Emerging Markets Weekly summarizes the key news and related developments impacting the largest countries and constituents of the Global Emerging Markets equity indices.
  • Macro data points: Chinese credit ratings, exports, and imports growth.
  • Companies mentioned:PDD Holdings (PDD US), Tencent (700 HK), Naver Corp (035420 KS)

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Dec 09
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Japan Weekly | Benefit One and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Japan Weekly | Benefit One, M3,Eiken Chemical

Japan Weekly | Benefit One, M3,Eiken Chemical

By Mark Chadwick

  • Market Watch: Topix hits a one month low as the BOJ Governor hints at an exit from negative rates policy
  • Major Movers: Dai-Ichi Life launched a rival bid for Benefit One, trumping M3’s offer. Good news for Benefit One and Pasona
  • Activist Watch: Nippon Active Value takes new positions in Eiken Chemical and Meiko Shipping

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Dec 08
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Affordable Luxury: A Look Into Chinese Luxury (Conclusion) and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Affordable Luxury: A Look Into Chinese Luxury (Conclusion)
  • 2024 High Conviction Idea -Why the Time Is Right for Gold Miners
  • Ohayo Japan | Google +5% on New AI Model; BOJ Confident to Exit Negative Stance
  • China Property Developers In Distress – Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | Dec 1-7, 2023
  • Commodity Analysis – US Coffee C Futures

Affordable Luxury: A Look Into Chinese Luxury (Conclusion)

By Alexis Dwek

  • Thanks to the rapidly expanding middle class, increasing incomes, and a strong desire for luxury, Chinese consumers are often seen as the embodiment of the luxury industry’s promising future
  • However, the market has seen competition intensify: Not only are international brands competing against each other, but the rise of domestic brands has brought the competitive landscape to another level
  • Since this summer, investors have been concerned by a shifting Chinese landscape in the context of the current economic situation

2024 High Conviction Idea -Why the Time Is Right for Gold Miners

By Rikki Malik

  • Real interest rates moving lower together with massively increasing fiscal deficits is a plus for gold.
  • Gold miners are generally poor long-term investments, but their time is close.
  • Miners’ margins are improving as revenue increases while costs decrease.

Ohayo Japan | Google +5% on New AI Model; BOJ Confident to Exit Negative Stance

By Mark Chadwick

  • Overseas: Stocks snap losing streak with 1.4% Nasdaq rally. Google’s new AI model Gemini lifts tech stocks. Oil below $70/bbl
  • Today: Japanese stocks likely to end week on a high following overseas stocks. Bidding war for Benefit One as Daiichi Life launches TOB at higher price
  • Markets: Bank of Japan more and more comfortable with exit from negative rate policy. Yen strengthens to 144/$ on Ueda’s remarks.

China Property Developers In Distress – Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | Dec 1-7, 2023

By Robert Ciemniak

  • A weekly curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress
  • We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news (‘local signals’), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market
  • We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; See direct links to sources

Commodity Analysis – US Coffee C Futures

By VRS (Valuation & Research Specialists)

  • According to Graph 1, during the period August 28, 2023 – November 24, 2023, an overall bullish trend was reflected in the prices of Coffee, despite some notable fluctuations.
  • During the period under consideration, there was a significant price correction from September 19th until the beginning of October.
  • In contrast, from 15th of October until the middle of November an upward trend was observed. 

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Dec 07
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Japan Set for Lower Open; Activist Proposals Reach Record High and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | Japan Set for Lower Open; Activist Proposals Reach Record High
  • Semiconductor Events Deserving Your Attention @6/12/23

Ohayo Japan | Japan Set for Lower Open; Activist Proposals Reach Record High

By Mark Chadwick

  • Overseas: Stocks failed to hold onto early advances in a choppy session as the job market clearly slowing. Nonfarm payrolls the focus on Friday
  • Today: Japanese stocks are set for a decline if they follow the weakness overnight and Futures. Toyota continues to sell non-core assets, while Rakuten raising money from Bank sale.
  • JapanX: The White & Case Review of 2023 Shareholders’ Meetings – Activist Proposals in Japan Reach Record High

Semiconductor Events Deserving Your Attention @6/12/23

By William Keating

  • Global semi sales for October 2023 amounted to $46.6 billion, an increase of 3.9% MoM but still down 0.7% compared to the year-ago period
  • Global semiconductor equipment billings amounted to $25.6 billion in Q323, down 11% YoY and down 1% QoQ
  • China is on track to maintain the global #1 semi WFE spender slot for the fourth year in a row and by the widest margin ever. 

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Dec 06
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): [Blue Lotus Daily – TMT Update]: SE/BABA/1519.HK/BIDU/700 HK/CPNG/PDD/BABA/3690 HK and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • [Blue Lotus Daily – TMT Update]: SE/BABA/1519.HK/BIDU/700 HK/CPNG/PDD/BABA/3690 HK
  • The Stocks to Own in Asia – Vol. 43
  • [Blue Lotus Daily]: XPEV/1211.HK/3931.HK/LI/JD/1810.HK
  • The Stocks to Own in ASEAN – Vol. 45
  • Five Trends in Technology for 2024 – Outlook for Key Markets in Tech

[Blue Lotus Daily – TMT Update]: SE/BABA/1519.HK/BIDU/700 HK/CPNG/PDD/BABA/3690 HK

By Ying Pan

  • SE/BABA/1519.HK: Shopee and Lazada plan to raise Commission Rates in Indonesia (+/+/-)
  • CPNG/PDD/BABA: AliExpress to open logistics center in South Korea to shorten delivery time (-/-/+)
  • 3690.HK: Meituan Grocery re-branded as Ella Supermarket, targets turning profit in 2024 (+)

The Stocks to Own in Asia – Vol. 43

By Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA

  • We highlight 14 stocks in Asia that look interesting to us based on our FVMR methodology
  • Portfolio changes: Three stock remains, 11 stocks added to our portfolio
  • Since its inception, it has generated a before-fee total return of 128% versus the MSCI Asia ex Japan of 59%

[Blue Lotus Daily]: XPEV/1211.HK/3931.HK/LI/JD/1810.HK

By Eric Wen

  • XPEV: XPeng G9 gaining traction in its launch in Europ (+)
  • 1211.HK/3931.HK: 9 Power Battery Companies exited the market in 2023 (+)
  • JD/1810.HK/981.HK: Huawei new smartphones cases listed, prelude to new handset launch (-/+/+)

The Stocks to Own in ASEAN – Vol. 45

By Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA

  • We highlight 14 stocks in ASEAN that look interesting to us based on our FVMR Methodology
  • Portfolio changes: Six stocks remain, eight stocks added to our portfolio
  • Since its inception, the portfolio has generated a before-fee total return of 184% versus MSCI ASEAN’s 21%

Five Trends in Technology for 2024 – Outlook for Key Markets in Tech

By Water Tower Research

  • After two years of working through the excessive growth witnessed in 2020, the $6 trillion e- commerce market is expected to accelerate modestly to ~11% in 2024.
  • Major secular trends such as mobile commerce (m-commerce) and buy now, pay later (BNPL) should help drive the market forward.
  • Digital advertising is expected to grow 9% to $719 billion, with a potential major boost from the fast- growing free ad-supported streaming television (FAST) as major players such as Netflix, Amazon, and Google introduced new content and services to draw increased consumer adoption.

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Dec 05
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Stocks Retreat; Oasis Loads Up on ACSL and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | Stocks Retreat; Oasis Loads Up on ACSL
  • The Stocks to Own in Thailand – Vol. 43
  • Industry Report – Climatetech & Sustainable Investing
  • Mid-Cap Discretionary Retail Analysis -Screening for Best Recovery Plays

Ohayo Japan | Stocks Retreat; Oasis Loads Up on ACSL

By Mark Chadwick

  • Overseas: SPX -0.5%, Nasdaq -1%; Mkt awaits Friday jobs report; Alaska Air to buy Hawaiian Air; Carvana up 20%; Spotify +5%
  • Today: NKY Futs -0.5% v cash. JPY 147.2; Japanese companies urgently seeking to improve capital allocation on TSE disclosure change
  • JapanX: Oasis acquired a 10.47% stake in ACSL, a Tokyo-based drone maker

The Stocks to Own in Thailand – Vol. 43

By Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA

  • We highlight 14 stocks in Thailand that look interesting to us based on our FVMR Methodology
  • Portfolio changes: Seven stocks remain, seven new join the fray
  • Since inception, it has gained 104% versus the SET 100 Index’s return of 21%

Industry Report – Climatetech & Sustainable Investing

By Water Tower Research

  • The WTR Sustainable Index was up by 0.9% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (up 0.8%), the Russell 2000 Index (up 3.1%), and the Nasdaq Index (up 0.1%).
  • Energy Technology (13.7% of the index) was up by 11.3%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (49.8% of the index) was up 1.7%, ClimateTech Mining was down 2.7%, and Advanced Transportation Solutions was down 4.2%.
  • Top 10 Performers: HTOO, FLNC, HLGN, PLUG, REX, OPTT, STEM, RUN, MVST, AMRS

Mid-Cap Discretionary Retail Analysis -Screening for Best Recovery Plays

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • We have applied some screens to 15 ASX-listed retail stocks to determine which potentially present the best returns.
  • As a retail analyst in a former life, I have learnt two things about consumers: buyer fatigue and pent-up demand.
  • We saw online buyer fatigue post-Covid and we are arguably in a period that will lead to pent-up demand following the tightening of consumer belts in the current cost-of-living/interest rate environment.

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Dec 04
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Five Weeks of Gains; Komatsu Acquires IVolve and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | Five Weeks of Gains; Komatsu Acquires IVolve
  • WSTS Forecasts Semi Revenue Increase of 13.1% In 2024. Seriously?

Ohayo Japan | Five Weeks of Gains; Komatsu Acquires IVolve

By Mark Chadwick

  • Overseas: SPX +0.6%, Nasdaq +0.3%; Illumina +7%, Microsoft -1%, Intel -2%
  • Today: NKY Futs +0.1% v cash. JPY/$146; Kewpie and Ezaki Glico raising prices; Appier helping Nexon
  • JapanX: Komatsu Expands Construction Software Arsenal with iVolve Acquisition for Fleet Management Services

WSTS Forecasts Semi Revenue Increase of 13.1% In 2024. Seriously?

By William Keating

  • 9.4% semi revenue decline in 2023 seems about right to us
  • Forecast of13.1% semi revenue increase in 2024, seems on the high side
  • Forecast assumes a ~45% YoY increase in memory revenue. Sanjay will be delighted to hear the good news!

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Dec 03
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): US Consumers Remain Resilient While Setting Record Sales During Black Friday and Cyber Monday and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • US Consumers Remain Resilient While Setting Record Sales During Black Friday and Cyber Monday
  • GEMWeekly (1 Dec 2023): China, South Korea, India Macro; ByteDance, NIO, Geely, Alibaba
  • What to Avoid if AI Server Will Continue to Squeeze General Server Market in 2024-2025?
  • Auctus on Friday – 24/11/2023

US Consumers Remain Resilient While Setting Record Sales During Black Friday and Cyber Monday

By Amrutha Raj

  • Black Friday is the busiest shopping day of the year. Cyber Monday comes second. This year BFCM set a record of USD 38 billion across 200+ million shoppers.
  • Buy Now, Pay Later drove USD 940m in online spending on Cyber Monday, up a staggering 42.5% YoY. Online Sales via smartphone set a fresh record of 59%.  
  • In a year, where good news for the main street is unwelcome news for the wall street, record shattering holiday shopping numbers comes amid a buoyant stock market.

GEMWeekly (1 Dec 2023): China, South Korea, India Macro; ByteDance, NIO, Geely, Alibaba

By Wium Malan, CFA

What to Avoid if AI Server Will Continue to Squeeze General Server Market in 2024-2025?

By Andrew Lu

  • After our global server market model update, we see 3Q23 server market decline and data center vendors’ capex cut not consistent with Nvidia’s robust y/y sales growth of over 200%;
  • Discrepancy: 1. Nvidia gaining value on AI server, losing zero on non AI; 2. AI servers grow at the expenses of non AI; 3. most vendors not only in server;
  • Different from  consensus view, we expect general (non AI) server market to decline 16% y/y in 2024 and 29% in 2025 and suggest to avoid general server supply chain vendors.

Auctus on Friday – 24/11/2023

By Auctus Advisors

  • ADX Energy (ADX AU)C ; target price of A$0.80 per share: Equity raise to fund increased WI in Anshof – ADX is raising A$4.2 mm of new equity plus up to A$1 mm through an offer to shareholders at a price of A$0.10 per share.
  • Subscribers will also receive half a warrant with an exercise price of A$0.16 per share.
  • The capital injection will provide funding for ADX’s increased interest in Anshof (from 50-60%) following the decision of Xstate Resources not to participate in the upcoming programme as well as funding for the Welchau-1 gas well (50% funded by MCF Energy) which ADX expects to spud in January 2024 after an anticipated environmental clearance.

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Dec 02
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): [Blue Lotus Daily – TMT Update]: PDD/BABA/JD/ZTO/2618.HK/1519.HK/MELI/AMZN/CPNG/700.HK and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • [Blue Lotus Daily – TMT Update]: PDD/BABA/JD/ZTO/2618.HK/1519.HK/MELI/AMZN/CPNG/700.HK
  • Japan Weekly | Stocks up 5% in November
  • [Blue Lotus Daily]: XPEV/NIO/BYD/TSLA LI/Geely/ACMR/ MU/NVDA/981.HK/1810.HK/000660.KS

[Blue Lotus Daily – TMT Update]: PDD/BABA/JD/ZTO/2618.HK/1519.HK/MELI/AMZN/CPNG/700.HK

By Ying Pan

  • PDD/BABA/JD/ZTO/2618.HK/1519.HK: Express Delivery Parcel Volume grows +48% YoY last week (+)
  • BABA/ MELI/ AMZN/ CPNG: AliExpress to introduce live streaming service abroad(+/-/-/-)
  • 700.HK: Tencent’s “Fight of the Golden Spatula” reach high highs with latest season content update (+)

Japan Weekly | Stocks up 5% in November

By Mark Chadwick

  • Market Watch: Japanese stocks remain in a tight range. Topix ended the week -0.4% lower, capped by a stronger yen. However, Topix finished November +5%
  • Major Movers: Taisho Pharma +57% on MBO plans; Shiseido -9% as sell-side cuts numbers
  • Activist Watch: No new positions. Strategic Capital builds position in Toa Road; 3D drinks up more Sapporo shares

[Blue Lotus Daily]: XPEV/NIO/BYD/TSLA LI/Geely/ACMR/ MU/NVDA/981.HK/1810.HK/000660.KS

By Eric Wen

  • XPEV/NIO/BYD/TSLA: Luxeed S7 officially launched, price lowered by RMB 8,200 (-)
  • NIO: Geely and NIO enter into strategic cooperation agreement for battery swapping (+)
  • ACMR/ MU/ NVDA/ 981.HK/ 1810.HK/ 000660.KS: CXMT launches first domestic LPDDR5 RAM (+/+/+/-/-/-)

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