United States

• Copper supply facing headwinds with a shortage of copper ore which has led to spiraling copper refining margins.
• Copper futures trading sharply higher than cash prices and term structure for copper futures has steepened. 
• Gold to copper ratio can be used to express a bullish view on copper prices with relatively lower risk compared to a straightforward long copper position. 

• The bullish outlook we initiated in early November 2023 remains intact. The SPX and QQQ still refuse to close below their 20-day MAs/21-day EMAs for more than 2-3 consecutive days.
• Even if/when they do, important supports are close by, including 4983-5050 on the S&P 500 and $425-$433 on QQQ (gap supports from 2/22/24). Anything above 4800 SPX is a buy.
• We continue to get an ever-increasing number of global indexes/Sectors with long-term breakouts, the latest being the MSCI Emerging Market and Frontier indexes. Clearly risk-on behavior.

• The first quarter is seasonally the softest for selling wireless routers. The expectations for NTGR are for the firm to generate positive free cash flow while revenue declines sequentially. 
• We are anticipating NTGR’s cash per share to reach approximately $12 for the March quarter and maintain a forecast of $14 per share by the end of 2024
• The price competition at the lower end remains unchanged and dependent on NTGR clearing out inventory ahead of the peak selling period in the second half of the year

• ZEEKR (ZK US), a premium Chinese BEV manufacturer and a subsidiary of Geely Auto (175 HK), has restarted its IPO process to raise US$500 million by listing on the NYSE.
• We previously discussed the IPO in ZEEKR IPO: The Bull Case and ZEEKR IPO: The Bear Case. 
• The latest SEC filings reinforce the bear case due to weak industry sentiment, rapidly slowing growth, ongoing operating losses and volatile FCF. 

• Masimo Corporation had a mixed Q4 and fiscal year 2023 earnings call, reporting both positive results and some challenges.
• The company generated over $2 billion in consolidated revenues, with healthcare revenues reaching $1.28 billion.
• In addition, Masimo saw strong growth in its hearables business and reported a record number of contract wins.

• Alpha Metallurgical Resources, a supplier of metallurgical products for the steel industry, closed its fourth quarter with adjusted EBITDA of $266 million and achieved over $1 billion in adjusted EBITDA for the year.
• This is the second consecutive year in which the company attained such a milestone despite facing considerable challenges during the year.
• Alpha highlighted the robustness of its management approach which included proactive identification of issues and proactive response plans that ensured minimal impact on performance.

• Approval of bitcoin ETFs by the SEC causing volatility in MSTR shares and bitcoin prices
• Opportunity for a trade pairing short sale of MSTR shares with purchase of bitcoin ETF
• Fluctuating premium of MSTR’s enterprise value over SOTP value, expected to dissipate with approval of bitcoin ETFs

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• Encompass Health’s earnings for the fourth quarter of 2023 revealed yet another strong showing for the company, capping off a robust year of performance.
• On the positive side, a significant growth in both volume and revenue was reported for the year.
• The company recorded a 10.4% increase in revenue, driven by an 8.7% spike in total discharges, indicating its value proposition indeed resonates with referral sources, payers, and the patients it serves.

• The Ensign Group offers a variety of services, including skilled nursing, rehabilitative care services, home health care, hospice care, and physical, occupational and speech therapies, among others.
• In their most recent earnings presentation, the company reported impressive clinical and financial results backed by the commitment and efforts of its employees.
• Ensign reported a same-store occupancy of 79.9%, a 240 basis point increase over the last year, and also noticed improvements in their occupancy on a sequential basis of 40 basis points over the third quarter.

• Throughout 2023, Exelixis Inc, showed a strong overall performance with increased demand and revenue growth in its cabozantinib franchise, globally.
• As per their recent conference call, they revealed that the franchise’s net product revenues rose by 14% YoY in Q4 2023.
• The 2023 full-year revenue also grew by 16% YoY. Moreover, the global cabozantinib franchise net product revenues produced by Exelixis, and its partners reached approximately $2.3 billion in 2023.

• Author has a negative outlook on self-storage REITs, particularly EXR
• Valuations are high despite challenging outlook and higher interest rates
• Predicts industry’s long-term prospects are unfavorable due to institutionalization and increased competition

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• Inspire Medical Systems, a manufacturer of devices for treating obstructive sleep apnea, recently reported their fourth quarter and full year 2023 financial results.
• The company delivered strong results, noting this was their first quarter with operating income and that they had completed the year on a high note.
• The company reported revenue of $192.5 million for the fourth quarter, a 40% increase from Q4 2020, and net income of $14.8 million, compared to $3.2 million in the prior year.

• Intra-Cellular Therapies, during their fourth quarter and full-year 2023 earnings, expressed a positive outlook based on strong and consistent growth throughout the past year.
• Key achievements included establishing CAPLYTA as a significant treatment option for a broad patient population with bipolar depression and schizophrenia, and advancing several of their pipeline programs.
• Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

• Maxlinear has probably been among this semiconductor cycle’s worst companies, if not the worst.
• I think that it might be time to give them a fresh look.
• Maxlinear was founded in 2003 in Carlsbad, California, by eight engineers. Today, Kishore Seendripu (CEO/Chairmen) and Curtis Ling (CTO) are still founders and work at the company. Maxlinear is a fabless company focused on mixed-signal products in the semiconductor industry.

• Greetings from a sunny Copenhagen, where it feels like summer is just around the corner, and the warm weather seems to be spreading to the crypto market as well.
• Bitcoin has risen by approximately 4.5%, reaching $72,250, and Ethereum has seen an increase of nearly 4%, up to $3,620 during the same timeframe.
• We would like to reiterate our optimistic outlook from last week, as highlighted in both Crypto Crisp and Crypto Moves #22.

• Flowers Foods continued to show resilience in a challenging consumer environment in the fourth quarter and full year of 2023.
• The company’s brands gained unit and dollar share for the first time since Q1 2022.
• Dave’s Killer Bread was particularly noteworthy, reaching $1 billion in retail sales and growing unit volume by 10%.

• Freshpet Inc. delivered robust performance for the fiscal year 2023 and the fourth quarter, notching a significant growth in net sales and improving profitability.
• The management believes the pet food company reached an inflection point in its journey towards becoming a profitable business in the fresh/frozen segment of the pet food market.
• Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

• Top Commodity Trader is Long Cocoa Pierre Andurand’s hedge fund bet on higher cocoa prices ahead of a massive surge last month, according to a Bloomberg article.
• Andurand said his firm expects cocoa-beans production globally to be down at least 18% on an annual basis, compared to most analysts’ expectations of 10-11%.
• “This means that we will finish the year with the lowest stocks-to-grinding ratio ever, and potentially run out of inventories late in the year,” he added.

• This is our first report on Roivant.
• The company’s Q3 2023 earnings were decent and the neutral positives can be highlighted from the continuous growth of VTAMA, ROIV’s best-selling branded topical in psoriasis, recording over 300,000 prescriptions and revenues of $20.7 million.
• Additionally, the pipeline for Roivant has compelling developments, with brepocitinib showing promising potential in orphan rheumatology.

• Natera, Inc.’s latest quarterly earnings reveal positive growth prospects and the firm’s commitment to maintaining momentum in their healthcare ventures.
• The company saw a rise in revenue, reaching $311 million for Q4, a substantial growth of 43% over the same period in 2022.
• Furthermore, its full-year revenues were reported at $1.08 billion, up by more than 30% compared to the previous year.

• WD-40 Company had a decent result for the first quarter of the fiscal year 2024.
• Notably, the company achieved robust revenue growth with net sales reaching $140.4 million, signifying a 12% increase from the corresponding period of the previous fiscal year.
• This growth also aligns with the company’s FY’24 guidance and long-term growth predictions, a sign of the company’s resilience and adaptability in a highly competitive marketplace.

• Lancaster Colony Corporation has reported record financial results for their fiscal second quarter ending December 31, 2023.
• Consolidated net sales saw an increase of 1.8% to $485.9 million, gross profit went up by 19% to $121.5 million, and operating income increased 28.1% to $65.8 million.
• The retail segment contributed to a net sale growth of 2%, driven by volume gains for their successful licensing program, increased demand for products like New York Bakery frozen garlic bread and Reames frozen egg noodles, and the continued strong performance of their carryover pricing strategy.

• Industry needs batteries and batteries need metals. As numerous studies have concluded, even with slightly slower than previously anticipated growth in EV adoption and renewable energy (wind and solar) buildout, demand for metals going into lithium batteries is expected to exceed current estimates for said metals’ production as early as 2026-28.
• The implied need to find and develop sufficient new resources of these metals to satisfy the expected demand has become a major focus for battery and auto OEMs, as well as governments set on the path to electrification of their economies.
• More plentiful, less harmful. Many industry and investment banks’ reports also conclude that traditional terrestrial resources in the development or even exploration phase currently are not sufficient to meet the expected demand, suggesting other unconventional resources require commercial development.

• Crypto market is driven by narrative in the short term, and capital favors new narratives. Ethereum restaking is the brand new narrative and biggest investment opportunity in this cycle.
• Restaking and Liquid Restaking will bring upward pressure to ETH, and tokens of Liquid Restaking protocols will benefit from the growing restaking market.
• DeFi use cases related to Liquid Restaked Tokens introduce increased financial leverage to the Ethereum DeFi ecosystem, which also entails heightened risks.

• We explore Klarna’s and Stripe’s IPO prospects and valuations based on recent share transactions; Nuvei and Cielo are close to being taken private, with Worldpay now controlled by private equity
• Nuvei and Worldpay both grew by acquisition but failed to deliver on the market’s expected returns, in our view, ending up under PE ownership; is Nexi a potential PE target?
• We retain Visa as a core holding and also keep PagSeguro and PayPal as buys, replacing Cielo with new peer group addition Shift4; we keep our sell rating on Affirm

• This last week was packed with deals, amendments, and merger breakups.
• A SPAC is set to merge with an electric utility firm, and a blank-cheque firm is taking a critical metals supply chain-focused firm.
• Also, Sam Altman’s SPAC surges as it nears a deal, and a SPAC terminates a merger with a hydrogen energy firm. Read on to find out the latest about all things SPACs. 

• Sealed Air (SEE) is a disaster in motion: its entire business is facing extinction as customers move away from the thin-film plastics the company makes.
• Sealed Air’s e-Commerce business has collapsed as Amazon has moved away from the single-use plastics, formerly ever present in its packaging. 
• California just passed two recycling and labeling bills that we think will make Sealed Air’s products unlikely to be used in the State and possibly in the US as a whole.

• Bread Financial (formerly Alliance Data) has experienced a drop in stock price since 2015 but has improved its balance sheet.
• The future earnings outlook is uncertain due to pending regulations, but the company is expected to generate a high return on equity.
• Bread Financial issues private label and co-brand credit cards with major partners, making it a potentially valuable investment opportunity at its current price.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• Tredegar Corporation has been selling off businesses, annuitizing pension plans, and seeing key executives retire in recent years
• With only two remaining businesses, the company is estimated to be worth $11-13 after accounting for debt, before tax implications
• These actions indicate a significant shift in Tredegar’s strategy and possible future liquidation piece by piece

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• Rubrik, a leading VC-backed security software company, filed for a long-awaited IPO in the United States, with Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, Barclays and Wells Fargo leading the offering. 
• The technology company is focused on data protection and helps organizations to protect their data and recover it in case of cyberattacks.
• Rubrik was founded by Bipul Sinha, Arvind Nithrakashyap, Arvind Jain and Soham Mazumdar, and backed by VC investors, including Lightspeed Venture Partners, Greylock Partners and Khosla Ventures.

• Acadia Healthcare delivered a robust financial performance for 2023, marked by a 12.2% annual revenue growth, 13.1% adjusted EBITDA growth, and 14.3% adjusted EPS growth compared to 2022.
• In the fourth quarter, its same-facility revenue rose by 10.3% on the back of rate improvements and patient day growth.
• Acadia also saw consistent improvement in its labor trends throughout 2023.

• The Boston Beer Company’s Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings revealed an operational performance meeting the midpoint of their forecast, with depletions down by 6% for the year and gross margins achieving an improvement of 120 basis points.
• However, net loss for the quarter indicated challenges, standing at $18.1 million, or $1.49 per diluted share.
• Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

• Tenet Healthcare’s Q4 2023 earnings indicated a strong performance, with net operating revenues of $20.5 billion, and consolidated adjusted EBITDA of $3.54 billion, which translates into an attractive 17.2% adjusted EBITDA margin.
• The company has demonstrated its ability to maintain profitability while focusing on quality and innovation.
• Yet, some challenges were also mentioned during the earnings call.

• Chemed Corporation reported their fourth quarter 2023 earnings with continued improvement in their VITAS operational metrics, including a 7% increase in admissions over the prior year period and an average daily census of 1,918.
• This is an 11% increase in comparison to the prior year and suggests that a hiring and retention program initiated in 2022 to remedy any potential worker turnover and expand clinical workforce capacity has been successful in maintaining VITAS’ operational performance.
• Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

• Examining the fourth quarter 2023 earnings for Dentsply Sirona reveals an investment thesis that emphasizes the company’s successful strategies, robust performance and rigorous financial discipline, alongside ambitious future business growth targets and consistent value creation for its stakeholders.
• Starting with the positives, Dentsply Sirona achieved over 2% organic sales growth for 2023, outperforming projections via growth in three of its four business segments.
• Notably, its orthodontic business experienced double-digit growth with both Byte and SureSmile.

• In Q4 2023, Elanco Animal Health reported a 5% constant currency revenue growth, driven by innovations, the strength of the farm animal business, improved conditions in the European Pet Health retail market, and increased pricing.
• The strong performance in 2023 indicates that the company’s innovation, portfolio, and productivity strategy are working, leading to confidence in the potential success of future investments.
• Going into 2024, the company aims to focus on three priorities: sustained revenue growth, innovation, and improved cash conversion.

• Globus Medical, a leading musculoskeletal solutions provider, has reported record revenues of $1.569 billion for the full year 2023, marking a growth of 53% compared to the previous year.
• The strong performance includes four months of sales after its merger with NuVasive.
• This remarkable growth maintained the company’s industry-leading profitability, generating a record non-GAAP EPS of $2.32 and an adjusted EBITDA of 30%.

• Globus Medical, a leading musculoskeletal solutions provider, has reported record revenues of $1.569 billion for the full year 2023, marking a growth of 53% compared to the previous year.
• The strong performance includes four months of sales after its merger with NuVasive.
• This remarkable growth maintained the company’s industry-leading profitability, generating a record non-GAAP EPS of $2.32 and an adjusted EBITDA of 30%.

• Ionis Pharmaceuticals Inc. had a remarkable year in 2023, with significant advancements in their RNA targeting platform and a steady stream of upcoming independent medicines delivering directly to patients.
• The company’s forward-looking stratagem involves expanding their technology and broadening its applicability to cater to patients’ needs.
• Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

• Intel launched a new segment reporting structure under which its newly created Foundry P&L allegedly racked up operating losses of ~$17 billion over the past three years
• The Foundry P&L is not expected to reach breakeven until the ’27/’28 timeframe
• Intel’s share price is down >10% in the two days since the new financial model was launched. 

• Johnson & Johnson (JNJ US) entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Shockwave Medical Inc (SWAV US) for $335/share in cash or an enterprise value of $13.1B.
• Offer price represents 4.7% premium over yesterday’s closing price or around 19% premium over the undisturbed price. The deal is expected to close by mid-2024.
• With no product overlap and competition concern, the deal is expected to get regulatory approval. With reasonable deal valuation, shareholders approval is also expected.

• OPEC+ decides to keep output targets intact till June. Iraq and Kazakhstan vow to compensate for overproduction.
• OPEC+ pressed its members to improve compliance with production quotas in Q22024.
• Expansion in US crude stockpiles slightly dampens the bull run of oil prices. While gasoline and distillate drawdowns come in better-than-expectations.

• Kura Sushi US Weighting as of writing: 4% 5th April 2024 – Q2 FY24 Results On April 4th, Kura Sushi US reported earnings for the second quarter of FY24.
• Nothing major to report and similar themes to previous quarters so will keep this one short. The market valuation is astronomically stupid.
• Average unit volumes at Kura are $4.28 million and have improved significantly; up 22% since 2019.

• Gibraltar Industries’ Q4 2023 financial results presented a robust year-end performance.
• The company’s leadership positions were expanded, the quality of earnings improved, and strong cash flows were generated.
• Both Residential and Infrastructure perform strongly, and although the Renewable segment faced industry headwinds, it demonstrated excellent margin expansion.

• BellRing Brands Inc. has reported the results from their first quarter ending fiscal year 2024.
• These results have come out better than the management’s expectations, with net sales increasing by 19% in comparison to the previous year.
• The company’s adjusted EBITDA also showed considerable growth, rising by 18%.

• The third quarter 2024 financial results for Lionsgate reveal positive trends contributing to the company’s growth and strategic developments.
• In this update, there are strong indicators of continued growth owing to an impressive performance across the business segments.
• Conversely, there are risks due to the competitive landscape and the strong reliance on hit content titles.

• Reynolds Consumer Products managed to maintain strong growth in Q4 2023, raising its share in some of its largest categories, including household foil and waste bags, achieving record profits, and boosting its cash flow.
• This was driven by double-digit profit growth across its various businesses.
• The operational stability of its Reynolds Cooking business has been restored and it has returned to historical earnings.

• Alternus Clean Energy and Acadia Energy have announced a joint venture to co-develop 200 MW of Sustainability Hub™ microgrid projects in New York State.
• Acadia has a pipeline of 1.5-2.0 GW of renewable energy projects in New York, with an average size of 20-50 MW per project.
• The partnership aims to develop and operate a portfolio of scalable microgrid projects over the next two to three years, which are expected to begin achieving commercial operations within two years.

• USA’s Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR) is currently at its lowest in 40 years. Should this be a source of concern? Perhaps not.
• USA is the world’s largest producer of crude oil. From being vulnerable to imported oil, US has become self-reliant.
• SPR expressed differently now, stands at 188 days of net imports compared to less than 100 days as was seen in the 1980s, 1990s, and early 2000s.

• Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has repeatedly emphasized that the data center is the new unit of compute.
• While this concept seemed straightforward at first, the deeper implications became clearer after Nvidia’s presentations at GTC and OFC 2024.
• I only recently grasped exactly what is happening, and a simple reframing of the underlying principles that drove Moore’s Law makes the entire picture clearer.

• Chinese authorities are to limit steel production while pushing forward industrywide structural adjustments as steel mills suffer from growing losses amid sluggish demand.
• Several ministries led by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) Wednesday said regulators will continue efforts to control crude steel production this year, focusing on energy conservation and carbon reduction.
• The authorities will foster industry strengths and weed out weak players to promote the structural adjustment and optimization of the steel industry.

• In the third quarter of 2023, PGT Innovations displayed a strong financial performance despite operating in an unpredictable market environment.
• The company’s balanced exposure to new construction and repair and remodeling channels has enabled them to deliver consistent record sales and impressive profits over the year.
• By combining a continued focus on operational efficiency and productivity, PGT Innovations managed to achieve a total revenue of $400 million and an adjusted EBITDA of $78 million in the third quarter.

• IAS 2023 fourth quarter and full year results depict a robust performance that exceeded expectations, noting an increase of 14% in quarter four revenue to reach $134.3 million and a year growth of 16% to reach $474.4 million.
• This growth marks a path for IAS’s strong commitment toward advancing the industry with its AI-driven measurement systems and optimization solutions.
• Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

• Papa John’s International, Inc. reported another year of record global system-wide sales for the fourth consecutive year of positive North America comps in 2023.
• The company’s success is attributed to the dedication and focus of its team, franchisees, and the restructuring efforts, especially the foundation improvements to restaurant operations, menu amelioration with novel products, the digital advancements of their operations platforms, and the expansion of the restaurant footprint.
• Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

• Post Holdings began fiscal 2024 with a strong first quarter, with manufacturing performance, pricing and cost management aiding in growth momentum.
• Diverse channel, product, and price point offerings have allowed the company to weather various volume fluctuations.
• Although volume decreases were observed in branded retail businesses, Foodservice remained strong with shifts toward value offerings and positive momentum in their Refrigerated Retail business.

• The Pilgrim’s Pride Corporation has encountered several ups and downs in the fiscal year 2023.
• The company possessed an impressive net revenue of $4.5 billion in Q4 2023, with an adjusted EBITDA of $310 million and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 6.8%.
• Their revenue for the fiscal year was $17.4 billion, marking an EBITDA of $1 billion and margins of 6%.

• Acquisitions are expected to remain a centerpiece of management’s three-pronged strategy to increase scale in the asset base, reduce outstanding debt, and ultimately position the company to return cash to shareholders.
• The Stronghold acquisition in 3Q22, followed by the Founders acquisition in 3Q23, added operational scale and inventory depth on the southern portion of the Central Basin Platform (CBP).
• Together with Ring’s Northwest Shelf (NWS) assets, the inventory provides a diverse set of horizontal and vertical development opportunities.

SIGA Technologies announced a strategic step in fortifying its distribution partner, Meridian, allowing greater control over planning and executing its international development efforts, a key growth pillar. The amended terms allow the company to actively manage future promotion activities outside the US (effective 1 June 2024). While Meridian will continue to administer existing international contracts, we expect the renegotiated terms to benefit the bottom line in the medium term as SIGA gains traction internationally. In a separate development, and one that could have a positive read-across for SIGA’s TPOXX, Bavarian Nordic, a key vaccine peer, has commenced the commercial launch of its mpox vaccine Jynneos in the US, which has only been available through the strategic national stockpile to date. We view this as a positive milestone for this therapeutic group and SIGA as TPOXX is the only approved anti-viral treatment for a range of orthopox viruses (including mpox) in Europe and is currently undergoing clinical trials in the US for expansion into mpox (presently approved for smallpox).

• Q1 Deliveries trailed plunging market consensus, my even lower number, and Tesla’s expectations as sales crashed while it overproduced to a new record cumulative excess inventory which jumped 70% y/y
• This doesn’t square with Tesla’s explanation that sales were hurt by ongoing production issues—much like when the company used the same excuse for the disappointing Q3 2023. 
• This time deliveries were much lower, the miss versus market expectations much worse, and the deep well of unsold inventories even more formidable.

• D.R. Horton is a leading homebuilder with high returns on equity and strong balance sheets, yet trades at a low price-to-earnings ratio.
• The company has shifted to being asset-light, generating significant free cash flow and maintaining a strong balance sheet.
• With a focus on market share expansion and efficiency, D.R. Horton is positioned as a growth company in a stable industry.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• Century Communities has reported its Q4 and Full-Year 2023 results, which demonstrated notable growth and profitability.
• The company’s Q4 deliveries hit a record high of 3,157 homes, reflecting a 9% year-on-year increase, and the year 2023 marked the firm’s 21st consecutive year of profitability.
• The housing market also witnessed considerable improvement, contributing to the company’s success.

• Oil prices are buoyant as the market largely expects OPEC+ to keep the supply cut policy intact till June. 
• Global oil demand outlook improves as the US and China see pick up in manufacturing activity after one-and-a-half years and six months, respectively. 
• Russia decides to focus on reducing oil output rather than exports in Q22024, implying a surprise shift in policy.  

• Life Time Group Holdings, Inc.’s Q4 2023 earnings call emphasized impressive financial performance and strategic growth plans.
• The revenue increased by 18.2% in Q4, driven by a rise of 20.9% in membership dues and enrollment fees, and an 11% increase in in-center revenue.
• Access memberships increased by 5.2%, ending the year with over 763,000 memberships, while average monthly dues stood at $183, a rise of 13.2% from the previous year.

• Shake Shack Inc. delivered an impressive 2023 full year, marking transformative milestones and exhibiting substantial profitable growth.
• Key metrics indicate a steady growth of 24% year-over-year in the company’s system-wide sales, reaching a record $1.7 billion.
• The company launched 85 total restaurants (an unprecedented number in a single year) and ended 2023 with 518 Shake Shacks worldwide.

• Tripadvisor’s fourth quarter and full year 2023 financial results exceeded expectations with the company reporting revenue growth of 10% year-on-year amounting to $390 million in Q4.
• In the same period, the adjusted EBITDA was $84 million attributed to exceptional brand performance and marketing efficiencies.
• For the full year, the company reported a consolidated revenue growth of 20%, recording an all-time high of $1.8 billion, with adjusted EBITDA experiencing a 13% growth to $334 million.

• Carnival Corporation plc recently released its Q1 2024 earnings.
• The company’s CEO, Josh Weinstein, and CFO, David Bernstein, detailed its financial performance.
• Despite recent disruptions caused by an event at the Francis Scott Key Bridge, which is expected to have a less than $10 million full-year impact, the company reported a strong first quarter.

• This is our first report on consumer products major, Helen of Troy.
• The company reported its third quarter fiscal 2024 earnings, with the results slightly surpassing expectations.
• The firm has shown consistent results over the past several quarters and is on pace to meet full-year financial targets.

• Carter’s, Inc. finished its fiscal year 2023 on a strong note with a sequential increase in their Q4 comparable U.S. retail sales.
• The demand for their new spring product offerings was earlier than planned leading to better than expected earnings and cash flow in the quarter.
• Earnings per share were up over 20% with margin expansion in each of their three business segments.

• We remain bullish on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), as they both refuse to close below their 20-day MAs or 21-day EMAs for more than 2-3 consecutive days.
• Once we do get 2-3 closes below the 20-day MAs on SPX and QQQ, it would mark the beginning of a pullback (a potentially rapid one, at that)
• Next supports currently at 4983-5050 on the S&P 500 and $425-$433 on QQQ (gap supports from 2/22/24), but anything in the 4800-4930 SPX range is a buyable pullback.

• The best combination of events for TPL is energy prices and production going up. This year, production levels in the Permian Basin recovered quickly from the seasonal decline.
• The hinderance to TPL’s quarter could come from the price of natural gas, which declined throughout much of the first quarter due to the warmer winter weather
• A majority of TPL’s revenue is from crude oil and natural gas royalties with production becoming the biggest factor in each quarter

• ABL’s SPAC merger did not generate significant proceeds, leading to limited research coverage and low visibility in the market
• Investors have identified ABL as a promising long-term investment with the potential for a 20% return on equity over the next five years
• ABL’s unique trading setup, with only 1.5 million shares available for trading due to insider ownership and a staggered lock-up period, presents challenges and opportunities for investors. Additionally, a $15 million share repurchase program has been announced, further adding to the intrigue surrounding the company.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• As we predicted in the last few weeks’ Crypto Crisp, the crypto market has been relatively stable in recent weeks.
• However, things are beginning to shift.
• During a speech in San Francisco on Friday, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell mentioned that robust economic growth in the US allows Federal Reserve officials to take their time with interest rate cuts.

• VIC has featured HGV multiple times, with the latest update in April 2021
• Stock price has remained stagnant, but potential upside of over 100% in next 2-3 years
• HGV became independent in 2017, acquired Diamond Resorts International in August 2021, and Bluegreen Vacations in November 2023, becoming the largest timeshare operator

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• In my insight, I discuss valuation framework for comparable company analysis and outline revenue growth scenario under my base case.
• Considering Ibotta achieved profitability in 2023 driven by strong growth in the segment of third-party publishers, I view EV/Revenue as the most appropriate methodology to value Ibotta.
• I have a positive view of the upcoming Ibotta IPO. The company’s efficient B2B2C business model, success-based marketing approach and scale provide Ibotta with a long runway of growth.

• Goldman also highlights that cyclical risks from the business cycle are fading.
• An upswing in the global industrial cycle typically leads to broad metals upside over the next 12 months the investment bank added.
• According to data from PIERS, a trade flow analytics tool within S&P Global, Baltimore port held just 4% share of the total trade volumes on the East Coast compared with other major regional ports like New York, with a nearly 38% share according to S&P Global.

• This is our first report on Nordstrom, Inc., a company that has captured the market’s attention given the recent rumors of a takeover offer from the founding family.
• The company’s fourth quarter results delivered revenues of $4.3 billion and an earnings per share of $0.96, an improvement over the previous year.
• Importantly, 2023 results met or exceeded company guidance.

• Group 1 Automotive presented solid performance in the fourth quarter of 2023 through all lines of business, reaching a total revenue of $17.9 billion, marking the highest for the company and attaining a record of total gross profit exceeding $3 billion.
• Though the company reported $131.2 million in adjusted net income, it is clearly driven by the parts and service gross profit, which amounted to $1.2 billion.This is our first report on retail player, the Kohl’s Corporation.
• The company’s Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings showed a mix of positives and negatives in terms of the company’s financial performance and future outlook.

• This is our first report on RV producer, Lippert (LCI Industries).
• In its Q4 2023 earnings, LCI Industries reported net revenue of $3.8 billion.
• This was a decline from the previous year’s revenue of $5.2 billion, mostly due to lower RV OEM and Marine industry production levels.

• This is our first report on HVAC player, Modine Manufacturing Company.
• Its recent results showed that the company had another successful quarter, highlighted by strong margin expansion and earnings growth.
• This is attributed to the company’s continued focus on faster-growing and higher margin businesses that has greatly improved their earnings profile.

• This is our first report on retail player, the Kohl’s Corporation.
• The company’s Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings showed a mix of positives and negatives in terms of the company’s financial performance and future outlook.
• Despite reporting a decrease of 1.1% in net sales and 4.3% in comparable sales for Q4, on the positive side, Kohl’s expressed optimism about its ability to realize growth through various strategic initiatives.

• This is our first report on bedding and other specialty products manufacturer, Leggett & Platt.
• The company has been facing some tough times but its management seems to remain optimistic amid challenging circumstances.
• While lower volumes in residential end markets and certain pricing responses have elicited predictions of lower earnings for 2024 from the company, other factors like the advancement of key product growth and improvement in profitability, accompanying a refocused bedding strategy are cause for increased optimism.

• LGI Homes had a solid fourth quarter and met all of its operational and financial goals for the full year.
• Despite being faced with a few challenges, the company manages to outperform its initial expectations.
• Among the notable achievements included the delivery of 6,729 homes, which was on the high end of their original guidance and represented a 1.6% increase year-over-year.