In this briefing:
- ECB, BoJ Suck Wind – EA Threatened with Japanisation
- Foldable Smartphones to Debut in 2019; Will It Aid an Industry Turnaround?
- MabPharma (迈博医药) IPO: Assembled for a Trade?
- Gold: Dovish Central Banks May Sustain Rally; Closing Our GLD Short
- Spotify: Playbook for Online Platforms to Turn Profitable – Implications for Meituan Dianping
1. ECB, BoJ Suck Wind – EA Threatened with Japanisation
By Charles Dumas, Chief Economist
- Monetary stimulus fails export-dependent savings glut countries
- Japan now accepts huge budget deficits and negative interest rates
- EA needs broad structural reform to avoid Japan’s deep malaise
2. Foldable Smartphones to Debut in 2019; Will It Aid an Industry Turnaround?
Plans regarding Samsung and Huawei’s foldable smartphones are out. The companies, which happen to be two of the largest contenders in the smartphone landscape are expected to unveil their foldable smartphone prototypes this month. In 4Q2018, Samsung, coming in first place, held a market share of 18.7% while Huawei, in third place, held a market share of 16.1%. Both companies are following different strategies when it comes to their foldable phone models.
The concept of foldable phones revolves around devices that can be folded into the size of a smartphone or opened up in to the size of a tablet. Huawei is said to be planning to introduce their foldable smartphone with 5G compatibility while Samsung is planning to release their foldable model with 4G compatibility. The market leader aims to leverage the expertise it has gained on its display technologies in its foldable smartphones.
3. MabPharma (迈博医药) IPO: Assembled for a Trade?
MabPharma, backed by Chinese private equity investor CDH, is seeking to list in Hong Kong. In this insight, we will discuss the following topics:
- The company’s background
- Details of pipeline drug candidates, the potential market of these products and the competition
- Shareholders and investors
- Questions for management meetings
- Summary of our likes and concerns
We will leave the discussion of valuation for our next insight.
Our coverage in the healthcare and biotech sectors:
- CStone Pharma (基石药业) IPO: Strong Assembly and Backing (Part 1)
Viva Biotech (维亚生物) IPO: When CRO Becomes Early Stage Biotech Investor
- Hansoh Pharma (翰森制药) IPO: Takeaways from Recent 4+7 City Centralized Tender Results
- Hansoh Pharma (翰森制药) IPO: A Leading Generic Player with Regulatory Overhang (Part 1)
- WuXi Apptec (药明康德) IPO: This A+H Listing Will Be Different
- Frontage Holding (方达控股) IPO: More Disclosure Needed to Understand Moat and Growth Prospect
- Ascentage Pharma (亚盛医药) IPO: Too Early for an IPO
- Junshi Bioscience (君实医药) IPO: Thoughts on Valuation (Part 2)
- Junshi Bioscience (君实医药) IPO: Early in Application but Behind in Key Indications (Part 1)
- CanSino Biologics (康希诺) IPO: Promising Pre-Clinical Results but Vaccine Scandal Weighs (Part 1)
- AOBiome Therapeutics IPO: Hope for Natural Therapeutic Treatment
- Stealth Biotherapeutics IPO: Cure the Symptoms but Not the Cause (Part 1)
- Innovent Biologics (信达生物) IPO: Pricing the PD-1 and Biosimilars Competition (Part 2)
- Innovent Biologics (信达生物) IPO: A Major PD-1 MAb Competitor Might Have Just Emerged (Part 1)
- MicuRx Pharma (盟科医药) IPO: Betting on Single Drug in the Not so Attractive Antibiotic Segment
- Hua Medicine (华领医药) IPO: Thoughts on Valuation
- Hua Medicine (华领医药) IPO: Reviving Roche’s Failed Attempt?
- BeiGene (百济神州) IPO: Dual-Listing with Upside Capped in the Near Term
- Ascletis Pharma (歌礼制药) IPO: Valuation Not Justified by Ganovo and Ravidasvir NPV (Part 3)
- Ascletis Pharma (歌礼制药) IPO: Three Valuation Risk Factors (Part 2)
- Ascletis Pharma (歌礼制药) IPO: Emerging Player in the Crowded HCV Drug Market
- China Isotope & Radiation IPO: Oligopoly, Visible Growth and High Barrier to Entry
- Zai Lab IPO: Thoughts on Valuation, Risks and Upsides (Part 2)
- Zai Lab IPO: Experienced Team, Promising In-Licensing Drug Pipeline (Part 1)
4. Gold: Dovish Central Banks May Sustain Rally; Closing Our GLD Short
Central banks around the world have signaled their willingness to return back to the Easy Money Playbook in their quest to re-stimulate economic growth and inflation. This significant shift in market expectations has been the key factor driving the recent rally in Gold (GOLD COMDTY) prices, and it appears to have legs. As such, we are closing our Spdr Gold Shares (GLD US) short.
5. Spotify: Playbook for Online Platforms to Turn Profitable – Implications for Meituan Dianping
- Our analysis of how Spotify Technology Sa (SPOT US) turned profitable in 4Q18 reveals three key ingredients: critical mass in sales, GM progression, and core business diversification.
- With sales reaching critical mass, this would allow fixed costs to be spread out in such a way that opex/unit is lower than GP/unit.
- Progression in GM and core business diversification strategy are worth monitoring.
- Implication: Meituan Dianping’s (3690 HK) core business is ahead of iQIYI Inc (IQ US) in terms of profitability inflection point timeline.
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