In today’s briefing:
- Ampol (ALD AU) Vs. Woodside Energy (WDS AU): Mean-Reversion Signal in Aussie Energy
- Credit Corp (CCP AU) Vs. Magellan Financial (MFG AU): Mean Reversion Meets Momentum
- S&P/ASX 200 Tactical Outlook Ahead of Australia’s Earnings Season Kickoff
- Regal Partners Recovers Performance Fee Mojo
- Hybridan Small Cap Feast: 21/07/2025
- Honeymoon Uncertainty Clouds Boss’ Outlook
Ampol (ALD AU) Vs. Woodside Energy (WDS AU): Mean-Reversion Signal in Aussie Energy
- Context: The Ampol (ALD AU) vs. Woodside (WDS AU) price-ratio has diverged more than two standard deviations from its one-year average – a classic signal for a potential mean-reversion trade.
- Highlights: Going long Ampol (ALD AU) and short Woodside (WDS AU) targets a 7% return if the price ratio reverts to its one-standard-deviation threshold.
- Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.
Credit Corp (CCP AU) Vs. Magellan Financial (MFG AU): Mean Reversion Meets Momentum
- Context: The Credit Corp (CCP AU) vs. Magellan Financial (MFG AU) price-ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
- Highlights: This Insight challenges the typical mean-reversion narrative—strong momentum, company fundamentals, and catalysts suggest the pair could set up either way.
- Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and statistical signals supporting this relative value play.
S&P/ASX 200 Tactical Outlook Ahead of Australia’s Earnings Season Kickoff
- The Australian Earnings Season will begin in early August. The S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) suffered a minor setback last week, closed the week down but it’s already rallying higher.
- Our profit target for this rally is 8824 (Q2 resistance target). It could go a bit higher than that but we think it will not reach Q3 resistance at 8996.
- If for some reason the index returns below last week’s Close, the next support level to watch is 8605 (Q2).
Regal Partners Recovers Performance Fee Mojo
- Auguring well for upcoming interim results, Regal Partners has provided a positive quarterly update showing a rebound for funds under management and performance fees.
- -Regal Partners’ positive June quarter update -FUM and performance fees rebound -Management raises normalised profit guidance -Share price undervalued, suggests Bell Potter
Hybridan Small Cap Feast: 21/07/2025
- A medical technology Company focused on the durable healing of wounds and the prevention of amputations announces its trading update for the six months ended 30 June 2025 as well as an update to FY 2025 guidance.
- The Company expects to report revenue for the Period of not less than $31m (H1 2024: $26.3m), representing growth of not less than 18% (H1 2024: 26.4%).
- In the first three months of the Period, the Company recorded revenue growth of approximately 26%.
Honeymoon Uncertainty Clouds Boss’ Outlook
- Boss Energy’s FY26 guidance raised doubts over Honeymoon’s ability to reach nameplate capacity, clouding the outlook and raising valuation concerns.
- -Boss Energy’s operational update triggers share price sell-off -Feasibility study assumptions questioned, given FY26 guidance -Nameplate capacity concerns for Honeymoon translate into much lower valuations/price targets -Expert study will commence shortly, but with no end date yet confirmed
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