In today’s briefing:
- HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII Index Rebalance: US$7.4bn of Flows Post Capping (Sep 2025)
- Index Changes and Rate Cuts: Key Events in September 2025
- India & China – Rekindling Brotherhood
- Mixue (2097 HK): Lock-Up Expiry. After Doubling Post-IPO, Is the Fizz Running Out?
- BYD (1211 HK) Tactical Outlook: Maybe Soon Is Time to BUY…
- Shimano (7309 JP) — Q2 Miss Resets Expectations; China Drag Masks EU Recovery
- Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ) – Retail Therapy
- Black Rock Coffee Bar, Inc. (BRCB): Drive-Thru Chain Sets Terms for IPO, Seeking $2.0b Valuation
- LE: 2Q Preview: Creating the New Lands’ End; Reiterate Buy, $20 PT
- GEC: Making Solid Advancements
HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII Index Rebalance: US$7.4bn of Flows Post Capping (Sep 2025)
- The September rebalance of the Hang Seng family of indices will use today’s closing prices to cap the index constituent weights.
- The net round-trip trade across all stocks across the five indices is estimated at HK$57.55bn (US$7.4bn). There is size to trade in a lot of stocks.
- Alibaba (9988 HK) has flipped from a net buy to a net sell following its huge rally yesterday.
Index Changes and Rate Cuts: Key Events in September 2025
- September brings heavy index rebalancing activity. Pop Mart (9992 HK) will join both the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX).
- The Fed is widely expected to cut rates and Asia-Pac peers (BoJ, RBA, RBI) are also meeting.
- Why Read: Plan ahead and take into account known market events when making investment and trading decision.
India & China – Rekindling Brotherhood
- The past month has witnessed a remarkable shift in India-China relations, with multiple high-profile developments signaling the most significant thaw in bilateral ties since 2020.
- Despite the expansion in bilateral commerce, India continues to face a significant trade deficit, especially in pharmaceuticals, where dependence on Chinese imports remains high.
- At present, the revived engagement seems to offer greater advantages to Chinese companies than to their Indian counterparts.
Mixue (2097 HK): Lock-Up Expiry. After Doubling Post-IPO, Is the Fizz Running Out?
- The expiry of cornerstone investors’ lock-up today modestly increases Mixue Group (2097 HK)’s free float, which still remains below 10%.
- Mixue’s 1H2025 results show limited overseas scale-up, with growth driven entirely by the domestic market, raising concerns over long-term growth prospects from new markets.
- At 22x forward earnings, Mixue trades at a premium to HK-listed F&B peers, reflecting market optimism for above-consensus growth.
BYD (1211 HK) Tactical Outlook: Maybe Soon Is Time to BUY…
- In our previous insight we correctly forecasted a short-lived, 2-3 weeks relief rally for BYD (1211 HK) , followed by a new downtrend (started this week).
- The stock went into OVERSOLD territory according to our model, this week. It’s however a bit early to BUY, the stock could fall more.
- If BYD reaches 102 next week, or the following week, that would be a very good place to BUY. A catalyst could bring the stock back to 140-150.
Shimano (7309 JP) — Q2 Miss Resets Expectations; China Drag Masks EU Recovery
- Q2 saw sales growth slow sharply (+8% yoy vs +16% in Q1) with OPM collapsing 600bps qoq; OP cut 34% sequentially.
- China sales reset to long-term average, but FY25 outlook slashed to ¥58b (-42% vs prior) with limited disclosure on margin impact.
- Stock down 25% post-results; buyback expansion (¥50b cap maintained) and long-only accumulation (First Eagle to 9.4%) provide near-term support.
Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ) – Retail Therapy
- Indonesia’s leading retailer, Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ), dominates the country’s major malls with 150 brands. It booked a solid 2Q2025 despite the seasonal impact from Lebaran.
- The company’s growth was led by active wear and fashion, with luxury brands outperforming in 2Q2025, although the Inditex brands continued to dominate fashion, with digital business also rebounding.
- MAPI’s expansion into Southeast Asia has slowed, as it focuses on Indonesia. Valuations attractive, with a forecast recovery in 2H2025, with recent troubles providing a buying opportunity.
Black Rock Coffee Bar, Inc. (BRCB): Drive-Thru Chain Sets Terms for IPO, Seeking $2.0b Valuation
- Black Rock Coffee Bar (BRCB US) is set to offer 14.7 million shares at $16-$18 equating to a valuation of up to $861 million at the high-end of the range.
- Wellington Management has indicated an interest in purchasing up to $30.0 million in shares of Class A common stock in this offering.
- Store revenue has increased by the mid 20% in the 1H 2025 and the expansion plan is aggressive. At first glance, we like the risk-reward of this deal.
LE: 2Q Preview: Creating the New Lands’ End; Reiterate Buy, $20 PT
- We are reiterating our Buy rating, projections and $20 price target for Lands’ End with the company announcing 2QFY25 (July) results after the close on Tuesday.
- We believe the quarter was another key positive in the company’s transformation to a leading lifestyle player, with Lands’ End continuing to shift the product mix to higher margin licensed items, enjoying the full impact of warmer weather for the swimwear season and successfully navigating the current tariff driven waters.
- We believe, especially in 2HFY25, when new licensing categories kick in and the back-to-school uniform segment ramps up, Lands’ End will be poised to drive solid upside on both the top and bottom lines; as such, we reiterate our Buy rating and $20 price target for LE.
GEC: Making Solid Advancements
- What you need to know: • GEC provided a corporate update on its achievements in FY25 including the sale of SSCC, record performance in its student housing portfolio, and successful project financing and development progress.
- • GEC remains well positioned to transition to a student housing pure-play and take advantage of the supply shortage in British Columbia.
- • The Company has a large cash balance following the divestiture and strong development plans with a group of elite partners.
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