Consumer

• After a difficult Q1 FY27, Hyundai delivered 219,072 wholesale units in July–September 2026, up 23.0% sequentially, including a company-record 77,916 units in September.
• The rebound reflects normalized production and healthier domestic momentum after supplier fire caused a loss of approximately 13,900 units of June production. Nevertheless, Q2 sales disclosures establish volumes, not profitability.
• Short-Term execution risk has diminished, but investment conviction depends on margins recovering toward FY27 guidance and on tangible delivery against the company’s FY2030 SUV, alternative-powertrain, localisation and revenue targets.

Executive Summary

• Global Direct-to-Consumer Brand: Secretlab has grown from a niche esports chair maker into a mainstream ergonomic furniture brand, selling to customers worldwide through its own regional online stores. Designing products in-house and selling directly lets it bypass retail intermediaries, keep the full margin, and control its brand, while expanding from gaming chairs into desks, accessories, and, more recently, office task seating.
• Self-Funded and Cash Generative: The business has relied very little on outside equity since its founding and has returned to profitability with a net cash balance sheet. Its asset-light model, with minimal fixed assets and customer prepayments funding part of its working capital, allows it to fund product development internally.
• Inventory and Supply Chain Exposure: Because Secretlab owns its stock and ships bulky goods worldwide, it is highly sensitive to freight costs and demand swings. An aggressive inventory build after the pandemic boom, funded partly with short-term bank debt, compressed margins and led to a loss as excess stock was cleared.

• Mcdonald’s Japan (2702 JP) is Japan’s defensive, high-quality QSR name in Japan with a defensible moat. 
• Minimal impact from volatility in tourist arrivals, as most of the outlets are in the suburban areas; therefore, it is truly a domestic consumption story. 
• McDonald Japan’s operating profit margin is double that of Zensho and Skylark (which comes from operational discipline and price hike), while its PER is still lower, which is the opportunity 

• Sheng Siong (SSG SP) benefited from the SG60 cash handouts and expanded CDC (spending voucher) disbursement. 
• As growth plateaus and there are better stocks out there to offer yield and return, investors are likely to rotate out; hence, the 28x PER will normalize to 18-20x. 
• Investors could either do a short Sheng Shiong or sell their existing holdings to book profit. Another way is to pair this with Kimly (KMLY SP)with 2% positive yield. 

• Severe Operational Retrenchment and Revenue Contraction: After an aggressive global expansion culminating in an initial public offering in July 2021, F45 Training Holdings Inc. (FXLV) encountered severe operational and financial dislocation. Full-year FY2022 revenue contracted 22.1% year-over-year to $104.42M (down from $134.02M in FY2021) as third-party franchisee financing facilities collapsed, new studio delivery stalled, and extensive accounting restatements revealed widespread premature revenue recognition.
• Acute Solvency Distress, Dilution Overhang, and NYSE Delisting: The company reported massive net losses of -$178.80M in FY2022 and -$182.72M in FY2021, driven by negative operating cash flows (-$96.78M in FY2022) and free cash flow burn of -$103.30M. This liquidity strain prompted emergency debt restructurings, executive turnover, internal control failures, and a voluntary delisting from the New York Stock Exchange in August 2023 to the over-the-counter Expert Market tier, virtually eliminating institutional liquidity.
• Distressed Turnaround Pivot Under New Brand Leadership: Operating under new Chief Executive Officer Tom Dowd and Chief Brand Officer Mark Wahlberg, F45 is attempting a stabilization strategy focused on unit-level franchisee economics, recurring royalty cash generation, overhead rationalization, and brand extensions such as FS8 (Pilates/Yoga). However, extreme balance sheet debt, ongoing litigations, and lingering franchisee attrition limit near-term institutional investability.

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• Combining resilient trading, a capital-light business model and an attractive dividend yield, Joyce Corp also offers a long growth runway.
• Joyce’s capital light business model provides strong cash flows Minimal maintenance capex leaves room for dividends Expansion potential at KWB Group, the main growth engine Exposed to housing activity and consumer sentiment

• The elimination of “parent-subsidiary listings” in the broad sense—including affiliated companies—and delistings resulting from TOBs etc. that lead to industry consolidation are expected to improve the profitability of listed companies.
• After delisting, a company will have no choice but to break away from management style that defers challenges to work toward improving earnings in line with the fund’s profit targets.
• After a company is delisted, some executives may realize for the first time that maximizing shareholder interests is the primary management objective of a corporation.

• When Coca-Cola announced its £3.9 billion ($5.1 billion) acquisition of Costa Coffee in August 2018, it envisioned building a global coffee powerhouse capable of expanding across stores, vending machines, and ready-to-drink beverages.
• The acquisition was completed in January 2019, giving Coca-Cola control of one of Britain’s most recognizable coffee chains.
• Nearly eight years after the announcement, that ambition faces an uncomfortable reality.

• Lamb Weston, one of the world’s largest producers of frozen french fries and a major supplier to restaurant chains including McDonald’s, has suddenly given investors something they have been waiting for: tangible signs that its turnaround efforts may be gaining traction.
• The company’s fiscal first-quarter results exceeded expectations, sending its shares sharply higher as management raised its fiscal 2027 sales, adjusted EBITDA, and adjusted earnings outlook.
• The headline numbers, however, tell only part of the story.

• Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.
• Highlights: Currently eight pair trade opportunities persist across three markets and four sectors.
• Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.

• Starbucks is back in the acquisition spotlight, and the company reportedly under consideration is one Brian Niccol knows particularly well.
• Reports suggest Starbucks has explored acquiring Chipotle Mexican Grill, the fast-casual restaurant chain Niccol led for six years before becoming Starbucks CEO in 2024.
• Starbucks has reportedly worked with advisers on a potential transaction, although no formal offer or definitive agreement has been announced.

Executive Summary

• Early Mover in Consumer Device Subscriptions: Circular runs a subscription platform for premium phones, laptops, tablets, and gaming devices, serving consumers directly and SMEs through Circular for Business. Founded in 2021, it was among the first consumer-focused players in the region. It sets itself apart from traditional enterprise leasing by bundling damage cover, refurbishment, and upgrade options into a single monthly fee.
• Strong Growth and Institutional Validation: Revenue has grown rapidly since launch and more than doubled in each of the last two years, driven by rising adoption among both consumers and SMEs. This momentum is backed by equity funding from top-tier investors including Y Combinator.
• Capital Intensity Weighs on Profitability: Subscriber growth requires upfront device purchases ahead of subscription income, and losses before tax have widened as the device fleet has grown. However, losses have narrowed considerably relative to revenue, and the path to profitability depends on securing further financing and redeploying refurbished devices across multiple subscription cycles.

• Premium Hybrid Retail Model: Little Farms combines premium grocery markets with paired cafes, bistros, and restaurants across 17 outlets in Singapore, supported by an online store with same-day delivery. Opening stores steadily and adding dining alongside has lifted revenue to US$50.9m in FY25. Gross margin has risen to close to 49% as dining and private label products make up a growing share of sales.
• Curated Sourcing and Institutional Capital: Direct relationships with farms and producers in Australia, Europe and Asia give the company a fresh, traceable range that mass market supermarkets find hard to match. Its role as the exclusive physical retailer of Whole Foods Market’s private label range in Singapore strengthens this. The May 2026 Series C, led by Asia Partners, gives the company the capital to fund its next phase of expansion, including large format destinations such as The Bloomhouse.
• Import Compliance Exposure: Reliance on imported fresh meat, seafood and produce subjects the business to strict Singapore Food Agency border clearance rules. A 2023 fine for selling imported lamb and seafood before mandatory inspections were completed was small and procedural, but it shows that compliance needs close control as volumes grow.

• FireFly Robotics, Inc. is an innovative agricultural technology and robotics company providing autonomous and semi-autonomous robotics for the golf and turf care ecosystem.
• Over 900 AMPs, MRH, and M220 machines were in service worldwide as of June 30, 2026, representing a 29.9% CAGR.
• Operating losses and negative cash flows raise substantial doubt about the company’s ability to continue as a going concern.

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• Amid calls for shifting to value-creating management, having independent outside directors—who can view matters from external perspectives—serve as board chair is one option for driving change within the company.
• Companies with an outside director chairering the board of directors increased by 29—from 110 (2.9%) two years ago to 139 (4%). However, the pace remains far too slow.
• Setting board agendas is crucial for outside directors to take the initiative during board meetings. The time has come to appoint an outside director as chair of the board.

• We are raising our price target for VRA to $7 (from $5), increasing our FY28 EPS to $0.11 (from a loss per share of $0.03) and reiterating our Buy rating after meeting with the management of Vera Bradley in their New York City showroom.
• We believe, after a highly material cleanup of the business model, Vera Bradley has once again regained the support of their core OG customer and is poised, with clean stores and product flows, to drive higher margin revenue and upside.
• While we continue to expect operating results to be “lumpy” in the near term as marketing and expansion plans unfold, we believe momentum is definitely on the upswing at Vera Bradley, and we are comfortable being more aggressive on our FY28 projections and VRA price targets.

• Distressed Valuation Multiple Tempered by Deep Operational Impairment: Dong A Hotel Group (DAH VN) trades at VND 2,210 per share, representing an extreme discount to stated net book value (P/B of approximately 0.22x), earning a top-tier Value score of 5/5. However, this deep discount reflects market skepticism following a catastrophic FY2025 net loss of VND 70.73 billion driven by severe year-end write-downs and gross margin inversion (-20.72%).
• Sub-Scale Hospitality and Contracting Business Profile: DAH operates an unhedged regional business model encompassing midscale provincial hotels (May Plaza Thai Nguyen, Dong A Resort, Prime Hotel Nha Trang), general civil construction, and building material trading. The business lacks a defensible brand moat, leaving it vulnerable to provincial economic slowdowns and intense competition from institutional hospitality operators.
• Elevated Governance and Capital Allocation Risks Warrant Caution: The investment thesis is constrained by governance risks, including recent regulatory scrutiny over real estate development assets, material capital outflows to related entities and individuals (~VND 156 billion in loans/advances), and the total suspension of shareholder dividends. Overall rating is set at 2/5 with High uncertainty.

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• Structural Ceiling on Growth: Despite passing its Hong Kong Stock Exchange listing hearing on October 07, 2026, the company’s core business model is facing a structural ceiling, as demonstrated by a 1.56% year-on-year decline in revenue and a 5.3% year-on-year decline in net profit for H1 2026, signaling that organic tourist traffic to Yangzhou is plateauing amidst regional economic shifts in East China.
• Lack of Gate Pricing Control: The company does not control the main entrance gate ticket of the Slender West Lake Scenic Area, which is managed directly by the municipal government; instead, it is a secondary “add-on” service provider (water tours and sightseeing cars) inside the park, making its financial performance highly vulnerable to fluctuating conversion rates of park visitors who are increasingly opting for free or low-cost land-based paths.
• State-Directed KPI Conflicts: As a state-owned enterprise with 89.99% of its shares controlled by the Yangzhou municipal government, the company’s capital allocation and operational decisions are heavily compromised by non-commercial mandates, including the preservation of expensive cultural employment programs (like the signature “船娘” boat girls) and supporting the high-leverage debt service of its parent group, which limits true minority investor returns.

• FireFly Robotics filed an SEC Form S-1 on October 7, 2026, for a Nasdaq direct listing (ticker FFLY) registering 27.1 million shares, seeking liquidity for early shareholders after withdrawing its $29.3 million underwritten IPO in March 2026.
• FY2025 revenue reached $47.2 million (up 11.1% YoY) with $30.5 million generated in H1 2026, but low corporate gross margins (19.9% in 2025) and heavy R&D/SG&A spend widened net losses to $15.12 million in 2025 and $9.1 million in H1 2026, requiring interim capital bridges including $5.0 million in 15% convertible debt and $3.4 million in private equity sales.
• The long-term growth story hinges on transitioning from legacy sod harvesters (54% of 2025 revenue) to high-margin autonomous mowers (AMPs, 16% of 2025 revenue with ~130 units delivered and a 76-unit backlog), where gross margins exceed 35-40% on hardware and software subscriptions present strong expansion potential.

• The Hang Seng Internet & IT (HSIII) index represents the top 30 stocks related to internet and information technology businesses listed in Hong Kong (HKEX).
• In this insight, we take a look at the December 2026 index capping flows.
• We have also presented our index change expectations for the next semiannual index review which will take place in March 2027.

• 4Q OP of ¥128.8bn was 6% below our ¥137.7bn but in line with consensus; International SG&A and a GU loss drove the miss.
• FY8/27 guide: OP ¥830bn (+12% YoY), in line with consensus ¥833bn and 2.5% below our ¥851bn; payout raised to 50%.
• Forecasts and ¥69,000 target unchanged; 8% downside after a 9% run-up into results; maintain Neutral.

• After a close to a 40% 1 year share price performance, the Bermaz Auto (BAUTO MK) share price could look a little expensive. 
• Valuations are not too undemanding, and the near-term catalysts seem to be working, and are margins accretive as well. 
• For dividend, start accumulating, while for capital appreciation, let’s wait for the next quarter to determine whether the recent spike is not a fluke. 

• Jiangsu Slender West Lake Culture and Tourism Co., Ltd. is a state-owned water-based tourism service provider in Yangzhou, Jiangsu Province.
• The company ranked second in Jiangsu’s water-based tourism market in 2025 with 18.5% share. It holds exclusive operation rights for water sightseeing boat services until 2035.
• The company reported RMB141,196 thousand revenue and RMB51,990 thousand net profit for 2025, though gross profit margin and net profit margin decreased.

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• Context: The Kikkoman (2801 JP) vs. Nichirei (2871 JP) price ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
• Highlight: Going long Nichirei (2871 JP) and short Kikkoman (2801 JP) targets a 5% return.
• Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

• Seven Eleven is turning to apparel to boost same-store sales growth as it falls behind rivals.  
• Hello Kitty aside, its hands-off tie-up with And ST looks poorly suited to the very specific type of compact, impulse-driven conbini merchandising needed here.
• FamilyMart got it right and how has a ¥20 billion clothing line aiming for ¥100 billion – but even then, FamilyMart is still struggling to keep footfall positive.

• QAF stock has been steady as investors look at its steady dividend yield, 5.3%
• Stock is being priced as a steady dividend yield play, which we think is wrong
• We don’t see much upside in the stock and see better value in consumer plays in the region

• We are reiterating our Buy rating, raising our price target for VNCE to $16 (from $9) and maintaining our conservative projections after meeting with Vince Holding management at their New York City showroom.
• We believe the core Vince operations remain primed for continued top and bottom line growth, driven by great looks, premium pricing and an affluent customer base who will pay full price for the right lifestyle driven offerings.
• Further, we are now even more enthused about the potential for the recent October’s Very Own (“OVO”) transaction to begin to move at a quicker pace than we initially projected, with key announcements (new wholesale relationships, retail stores and category and product expansion) on tap for 2026, with a key impact for FY27.

• Yadea (1585 HK) result was not great, and its share price suffered as a result. However, AIMA Technology Group (603529 CH) results were much worse than Yadea. 
• The industry is going through consolidation, so whichever company has a stronger war chest should be better off.  
• Yadea’s valuation is near a historical low, but it has great support from the 6% dividend yield. Expect the share price to diverge from Aima Tech.  

• Meeting the Fast Entry threshold for inclusion, SHEIN Global Holdings (625 HK) will be added to the KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB US) at the close on 9 October.
• The stock is down 32% from its IPO price, and the passive buying could provide a short-term boost to the stock price.
• There could be more index inclusions for the stock between December and March but watch out for the big unlock at the end of February.

• Yesterday, the TSE announced the TOPIX review for October 2026. This is a single large announcement covering a massive methodology change.
• There are 35 ADDs (we estimated 33, got 32/33 right) and 684 Transitional DELETEs (we estimated 694, got 672/694).
• This creates US$69bn of flows in October and $13bn of flows in November. Expect a fair bit of jockeying from today onward.

• On 7 October, it was reported that SAMG Entertainment will supply its Catch! Teenieping products to about 2,000 Target stores in the United States.
• In my view, this deal with Target could add additional 11 billion won+ sales in 2026 and 28 billion won+ in 2027 for SAMG Entertainment.
• So this deal with Target could result in additional 6.7% and 15.9% sales for SAMG Entertainment, respectively in 2026 and 2027. 

• Portfolio Simplification and Capital Recycling: The rebranding of Jardine Cycle & Carriage to Jardine Matheson Southeast Asia Limited (JMSEA) on October 1, 2026, and the divestment of its legacy Singapore and Malaysia automotive retail business to Chandra Asri for S$265 million represents a definitive pivot from owner-operator to an asset-light, capital-allocating holding company.
• Defensive Capital Allocation and Cash Harvesting: Amid cyclical headwinds and IDR volatility, subsidiary Astra International is maintaining its IDR 3.89 trillion interim dividend (IDR 98 per share) and running a massive Rp 8 trillion buyback program, prioritizing Total Shareholder Return (TSR) in the 10% to 13% CAGR target range over speculative capital expenditure.
• Parent-Subsidiary Power Dynamics & Governance Alignments: Post-2025 management overhaul under JMH CEO Lincoln Pan, KPIs across the group are strictly tied to 5-year TSR, with senior executives mandated to hold significant equity stakes. While operations are heavily decentralized to local management at Astra, JMH maintains absolute control over major capital recycling triggers and capital repatriation flows.

• Founded in 2000 and KOSDAQ-listed in 2021, DYC makes precision-machined auto powertrain(drivetrain) parts, winning new-model programmes from global OEMs(Mercedes·BMW·Audi·Porsche·Stellantis·GM, etc.) in Tier-1 bids and mass- supplying them with induction heat treatment, friction welding and precision machining.
• Subsidiary DYC Dynamics makes guided-missile parts such as fuzes and attitude control(axial thruster) components
• Its managers have about 30 years of R&D experience at defence firms such as Hanwha, covering everything from reverse engineering to mass production.

• Severe consolidated leverage and liquidity pressures on E-Mart have been exacerbated by parent-level strategic pivots, notably the $1 billion (1.36 trillion won) investment by wholly-owned subsidiary Shinsegae Property in the Paramount Skydance takeover of Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) on October 6, 2026, and the 500 billion won emergency bailout of distressed subsidiary Newsea Construction (formerly Shinsegae E&C) in May 2026.
• The structural retreat of the integrated online strategy is codified by the August 2026 buyout of SSG.com’s financial investors and subsequent corporate split. E-Mart paid 827.5 billion won to buy out Olympus First’s stake, only to announce a day later a spin-off of its fashion, beauty, and lifestyle divisions. This marks a formal unwind of the seven-year-old unified online platform strategy to instead focus on grocery, while facilitating a clean family division of business lines between Chairman Chung Yong-jin and his sister Chung Yoo-kyung.
• A new structural working capital headwind has emerged from the September 17, 2026 National Assembly legislative reform, which slashes supplier payment deadlines from 60 days to 35 days for direct purchases. This regulatory change imposes immediate cash flow strains on E-Mart’s core offline business, compounding the ongoing domestic hypermarket traffic decline and high minimum wage costs (surpassing 10,000 won per hour) that render late-night/dawn delivery expansions economically unviable relative to Coupang’s 75% dawn-delivery market share.

Executive Summary

• Circular Device as a Service Platform: Cinch replaces device ownership with flexible subscriptions to smartphones, laptops, and tablets for consumers and businesses in Singapore and Malaysia. It procures new devices at a discount, funds them on its own balance sheet, and earns monthly fees. Returned devices are refurbished and redeployed across several subscription cycles, which spreads the cost of each device over a longer working life.
• Rapid Commercial Scaling: Revenue rose more than fourfold to US$5.5m in FY25, and operating cash flow turned positive as the subscription base grew, helped by device purchases being classed as investing cash flow. Growth is supported by Cinch’s role as Samsung’s exclusive subscription partner in Singapore, a widening network of channel partners, and a debt and equity round of up to US$28.8m announced in April 2025 to fund regional expansion , including a planned entry into Japan.
• Capital Intensive Model: Each device is paid for upfront but earns revenue over many months, so growth depends on continuous access to equity and debt. All of Cinch’s liabilities are currently classified as current, while the devices they fund generate cash over longer terms. That leaves the business exposed if funding tightens, customer defaults rise, or resale values for used devices fall faster than expected.

• In survey conducted by Life Insurance Association of Japan on “Is ROE Exceeding the Cost of Capital?,” the discrepancy in perceptions between companies and investors has drawn attention every year.
• With the rise in the cost of capital, there is a risk that ROE could fall below the break-even point—even based on a company’s own calculated “cost of capital.”
• The key to achieving “ROE significantly exceeds the cost of capital” is to implement fundamental measures to boost earnings; however, many companies will focus solely on enhancing shareholder returns.

Executive Summary

• Regional Recommerce Leader with a Clear Path to IPO: CompAsia runs a vertically integrated device circularity platform that has transacted over three million devices across Southeast Asia. Having started as a digital-first business, it is now rapidly building a physical retail network in Malaysia, which serves as both a sales channel and a trade-in sourcing engine. The company is preparing for a Main Market listing on Bursa Malaysia, targeted for 1H27, which would fund further store expansion and the growth of ReNewNGo.
• Recurring Revenue Backed by Embedded Supply: The investment case centres on CompAsia’s shift towards recurring revenue through ReNewNGo, its device subscription plan for consumers without credit cards. ReNewNGo had around 20,000 subscribers as of March 2026, with management targeting 50,000 by the end of 2026 and 100,000 in 2027. Embedded trade-in partnerships with leading telcos, OEMs and retailers feed it a steady, low-cost supply of devices, and returned subscription devices flow back into inventory. Together, these create a self-reinforcing loop.
•  Consumer Credit as the Key Risk: In Malaysia, ReNewNGo is funded from CompAsia’s own balance sheet and targets customers without credit cards, so the company bears the credit risk directly. As the subscriber book grows, an economic downturn could raise defaults, erode the programme’s margins, and divert IPO proceeds from growth into covering bad debts.

• Linamar Corporation (LNR CN) is a diversified global advanced manufacturing powerhouse operating across two core pillars: the Mobility segment (precision machining, light metal casting, and propulsion-agnostic structural assemblies) and the Industrial segment (Skyjack access equipment and Linamar Agriculture, comprising MacDon, Salford, and Bourgault). The company has successfully evolved well beyond traditional automotive powertrain manufacturing, achieving record top-line scale exceeding CAD 10 billion and structurally dampening cyclicality through high-margin industrial exposure.
• Financial performance demonstrates resilient operational execution and operating leverage: FY2025 net income surged 126% YoY to CAD 584.52 million on expanding gross margins (14.79%) and extraordinary free cash flow generation of CAD 837.80 million. Momentum accelerated into 1H 2026, with Q2 2026 revenues reaching a record CAD 3.14 billion (+18.8% YoY), driven by market share expansion, double-digit North American Content Per Vehicle (CPV) gains (+24.6% YoY), and robust Skyjack access equipment delivery volumes.
• Trading at ~8.4x trailing P/E, 0.87x P/B, and ~4.8x EV/EBITDA, Linamar presents an exceptional fundamental value proposition against both Tier 1 automotive and specialty industrial peers. With net debt-to-EBITDA at a pristine 0.52x, a 3-year dividend CAGR of 11.9% (current yield 1.3%), and a secure multi-year backlog across propulsion-agnostic structural components and broad-acre agricultural equipment, the risk-reward profile is highly attractive for institutional investors.

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• Jardine Matheson Southeast Asia (JCNC SP) (formerly known as Jardine Cycle & Carriage (JCNC SP), popped ~10% today ahead of the Toyota Motor (7203 JP) in-specie-distribution and special dividend.
• The record date for both is the 9th October, with payment on (or before) 2nd December. 
• JMSEA’s implied stub value is around its highest-ever level. As is the simple ratio of JMSEA/Astra International (ASII IJ). Neither are sustainable. Borrow is (reportedly) non-existent.

• On 6 October, the Shinsegae Group announced that its property development affiliate, Shinsegae Property, will invest $1 billion (approximately 1.4 trillion won) into the Warners Bros Discovery (WBD) acquisition.
• E Mart Inc (139480 KS) currently owns an 100% stake in Shinsegae Property. E Mart continues to face difficulties on meaningfully improving its retail and e-commerce local businesses in Korea. 
• In the near-term (1-2 years), this investment is more likely to have a negative impact on E mart mainly due to additional burdens on its balance sheet. 

• Suzuki Motor (7269 JP) has been selling off for the past 5 weeks, showing an attractive inexpensive valuation.
• The stock looks reasonably priced on cash flow, displays strong operational cash generation and balance sheet strength (driven by hybrid and small-car dominance in emerging markets).
• Our model analysis shows the stock sell-off right now is probably exhausted, so the timing for positioning is quite good, at the moment.

• From energy drinks to a 19th-century land trust, ten different stocks turned USD 1 into over USD 300 from 2001 to mid-2025, versus USD 7.7 for the S&P 1500.
• Five conditions explain their compounding: a long runway, self-funding growth, pricing power, scale that improved the business, and per-share discipline, guided by owner-minded leaders.
• The next pre-giants show improving rather than already-high returns, gross margin rising first, and a label the market still gets wrong; our screen sets out what to test.

• Own Brands carried the top line: Revenue rose 2.7% YoY to USD266.6mn (+2.9% at constant currency). Own Brands grew 13.3% to USD172.9mn (64.9% of sales) while Agency Brands fell 12.4% after the 3QFY25 exit from an agency account.
• Gross margin narrowed: Gross profit margin (GPM) fell 180bps YoY to 25.7%, which the company attributes to higher raw material costs, a 4.0% weaker rupiah and 4.5% weaker peso. The derived 2QFY26 GPM was about 24.4%.
• FX gain and lower tax lifted profit: PATMI rose 5.4% to USD12.9mn, helped by a USD2.6mn net FX gain (1HFY25: USD0.2mn loss) and a 29.9% tax rate (1HFY25: 34.3%). If accounting for 1HFY25’s Philippines streamlining one-offs, PATMI is then flat YoY. EBITDA fell 3.7% to USD23.4mn, or 14.7% excluding FX.

• MSGS has set October 26, 2026 as the completion date for the Rangers spin. Holders of record on October 20 receive one SpinCo share for every two MSGS shares .
• When-Issued trading will commence from October 21, while Regular-way trading will begin from October 27.
• We expect the separation to improve price discovery and narrow the valuation discount, with October 21 when-issued trading providing the first market based assessment of each franchise.

• Uncompromising Store-Level Discipline & The ‘Scrap-and-Build’ Strategy: The Expert confirms that Fast Retailing holds a strict, non-negotiable 15% ROIC threshold for store viability, evaluated over a 3-year trailing window. This internal math drove the drastic store network contraction of Comptoir des Cotonniers (slashing store count by almost 50% from 144 stores to 77 by May 2026) and is actively driving the restructuring of underperforming locations in Mainland China as the group transitions from regional chain-store to independent store management.
• Quantified Supply Chain Compliance Overhead (70 to 120 bps): Sourcing transitions out of China (which historically represented over 70% of production and is shifting toward Southeast Asia where domestic production in Indonesia and Vietnam now exceeds 50%) carry a structural initial gross margin drag of 100 to 150 basis points due to lower initial factory efficiency. Simultaneously, regulatory and ESG traceabilities, such as segregating Xinjiang cotton to comply with the UFLPA and EU’s CSDDD, add a permanent 30 to 50 basis points of P&L compliance overhead.
• Institutionalizing Management Beyond Yanai & ‘Global One’ Incentives: Despite Tadashi Yanai’s towering presence at 77, the group’s succession is institutionalized via co-CEOs and regional heads. Regional executive incentives are highly localized, with 60% of variable compensation tied strictly to regional operating profit and inventory turnover days. This model enforces brutal accountability; underperforming regional heads (such as in Greater China, where FY2025 revenue fell 4.0% and business profit slid 12.5%) must immediately pivot structures or face replacement.

Executive Summary

• From Job Board to Talent Ecosystem: Glints has grown from a graduate job board into a regional talent platform serving more than 10 million professionals and 60,000 employers. It now combines a job marketplace with recruitment and employer of record services, meeting rising demand from companies, particularly smaller ones, that want to hire in Southeast Asia without setting up a local entity.
• Shift Towards Recurring Revenue: Glints is moving beyond one-off recruitment fees towards ongoing employment services that generate recurring income. This more predictable revenue base, combined with tighter cost control, supports management’s goal of reaching group-level operating profit by 2027.
• Losses and Cyclical Exposure Remain: Glints remains loss-making, and its balance sheet is still under pressure. As a recruitment business, it is also exposed to the economic cycle, with demand falling when employers cut back on hiring.

• Wesfarmers offers resilience and quality management to execute through the macro cycle, with digital and agentic levers supporting FY28 earnings acceleration.
• Wesfarmers’ retail resilience shines through a tougher cycle Digital, AI and automation unlock the next leg of growth Margin resilience sets Wesfarmers apart from retail rivals Valuation de-rating offers investors a fresh entry point

• Premier Liquidity and Benchmark Representation: The Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF US) is the definitive institutional benchmark and liquidity vehicle for US large-cap financials, providing exposure across diversified money-center banks, premier investment banks, property and casualty insurers, and capital market operators.
• Favorable Fundamental Drivers: Constituents benefit from structural tailwinds including a rebound in investment banking advisory/underwriting activity, steady net interest income supported by normalized yield curve dynamics, robust wealth management asset inflows, and disciplined operating expense management.
• Defensive Capital Return and Attractive Relative Value: XLF offers an attractive combination of strong constituent balance sheets, regulatory capital buffers well above minimum thresholds, a 1.53% indicated dividend yield (5-year dividend CAGR of 3.77%), and moderate valuation multiples relative to the broader market.

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• Germany’s Federal Court has finally closed the €5.4bn VW stake-building litigation, removing an 18-year legal overhang and the residual risk of an adverse appeal.
• The ruling does not change our €34.36/share NAV, as we never deducted the claims from SOTP and Celle had already substantially de-risked the case in 2022.
• PAH3 trades at a 28.6% discount to NAV. A 25% discount implies 5.1% upside; getting to 20%, or 12.1% upside, probably needs deleveraging or better VW/Porsche AG performance.

• Motherson has agreed to acquire 50.1% of Rotary Connectors. This transaction adds a critical interconnect component to the group’s aerospace and defence Electrical Wiring Interconnect System capability.
• Aerospace revenue has grown from INR 245 crore in FY23 to INR 2,447 crore in FY26, while the order book reached USD 1.6 billion at FY26-end. 
• FY26 aerospace EBITDA margin was only about 8.3%, well below the smaller pre-acquisition FY24-base. The next leg depends on mix, utilisation, integration and return on capital, not revenue growth alone.

• Fast Retailing (9983 JP) will report FY 2026 results on Thursday, 8 October 2026. Gain insight into earnings-day price history, volatility dynamics, and signals from the options market.
• Expect Volatility: Results have historically driven moves between 2% and 12%. Options imply a ±4.3% swing, below the historic average.
• Portfolio Impact: As an 8% Nikkei 225 heavyweight, earnings-day moves ripple across the benchmark, making results market-relevant beyond the single stock.

• Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.
• Highlights: In Japan, currently two pair trade opportunities persist across two sectors.
• Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.

• Advanta Enterprises Limited (2085631D IN) (AEL) is looking to raise about US$500m in its upcoming India IPO. It is a 100% secondary offering. 
• AEL is a global agriculture solutions company offering hybrid seeds and post harvest solutions, with over 900 seed varieties across multiple crops, sold in 74 countries.
• In this note, we talk about the company’s historical performance.

• Alibaba Group has found itself caught in a selloff that has little to do with a sudden collapse in its underlying business.
• The company’s U.S.-listed shares had fallen roughly 27% year-to-date entering the October 2 session, while its Hong Kong-listed shares dropped about 2.1% on Friday as the Hang Seng Index sank 2.6%, marking its worst one-day performance in more than six months.
• The immediate culprit was a sharp surge in U.S. Treasury yields, with the benchmark 10-year yield climbing from around 4.6% in late August to above 5.3% by the end of September, its highest level in 24 years.

• FMCG revenues jumped to INR 170cr in Q1FY27 vs typical run-rate of INR 130-140cr earlier, while the EBIT loss also narrowed to around INR -45cr vs INR -60cr+ YoY. 
• The Property business saw -10% YoY decline in revenue to INR 30cr+ due to impact on footfalls from ongoing renovation in the Quest Mall in Kolkata.
• The BPO Business (Firstsource Solutions) continues to see strong growth and margin expansion. QoQ revenue grew by 2.2% in constant currency (CC) terms while EBIT margin expanded 20bp QoQ.

• Bassett Furniture Industries (NASDAQ: BSET) is a 123-year-old, Virginia-headquartered, vertically integrated designer, manufacturer and retailer of residential furniture

• Organized into Wholesale (three US-owned plants supplying its own stores plus ~1,000 independent dealers) and Retail (57 company-owned of 86 total Bassett Home Furnishings stores).

• In October 2022 a private-equity-backed buyer, CSC Generation, offered $21/share cash for the whole company

• The €5.4 billion market manipulation risk is fully resolved: The German Federal Court of Justice’s final dismissal of the hedge funds’ appeals on September 30, 2026, completely eliminates the largest legacy tail risk stemming from the 2008 VW takeover attempt.
• Deleveraging is stalled by operational deterioration at the operating companies: Porsche SE’s net debt stands at €5.0 billion as of June 30, 2026. Near-term debt reduction is severely constrained by Volkswagen’s profit warnings, including a €6 billion goodwill write-down in its Porsche segment that forced Porsche SE to slash its own 2026 adjusted net profit guidance.
• Severe governance overlaps prioritize family control over minority shareholder returns: Overlapping board roles, such as Oliver Blume serving as CEO of both VW and Porsche AG, ensure that Porsche SE remains a vehicle to secure the Porsche and Piëch families’ control. Consequently, management has no incentive to execute stake sales or share buybacks to close the persistent 28% to 33% NAV discount.

• The IPO is a Deleveraging Tool for Parent UPL, Not a Growth Engine for Advanta: The planned USD 500 million listing is structured as a 100% Offer for Sale (OFS) of 36,105,578 shares. Advanta will receive zero fresh proceeds; the capital flows entirely up to parent company UPL Limited and KKR’s Melwood vehicle. This is a strategic cash-extraction event to service UPL’s debt rather than an expansion fundraise for Advanta.
• Structural Margin Dilution via the Decco Related-Party Transaction: The internal acquisition of post-harvest treatment player Decco Holdings UK in late 2025 for USD 482.45 million (₹4,282 crore) has permanently altered Advanta’s financial profile. While core seeds previously commanded high EBITDA margins of 24.73%, the consolidation of Decco’s lower-margin coating and post-harvest business has dragged blended EBITDA margins down to 20.4% as of Q1 FY27.
• Premium Sorghum Trait Duopoly Erosion: While Advanta historically held unmatched pricing power with its non-GMO herbicide-tolerant igrowth® technology—charging a premium of USD 20.00 per acre—the competitive entry of S&W Seed’s Double Team™ system has created a aggressive duopoly. This alternative herbicide system is driving customer churn in key geographies like the US Southern Plains due to escalating weed resistance to imidazolinone chemistry.

• I summarise the latest spreads and newsflow for the merger arb situations covered across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Chinese ADRs.
• Highest spreads: Skyworth (751 HK), OFX Group (OFX AU), Z Fin (1168 HK), Peet Ltd (PPC AU), Atlantic Lithium (A11 AU), Tourism Holdings (THL NZ). 
• Lowest spreads: Kadoya Sesame Mills (2612 JP), Kakaku.com Inc (2371 JP), Accent Group (AX1 AU), Leopalace21 Corp (8848 JP), Taiyo Holdings (4626 JP), FleetPartners Group (FPR AU).

• The Arclands Corporation (9842 JP)/Joyful Honda (3191 JP) merger stalled after overstated profits. The restatement cuts FY2/26 net income by JPY1.3bn, with revised financials due 13 October.
• Case for keeping the ratio unchanged: Arclands’ core retail business is healthy, while Joyful Honda’s standalone outlook is deteriorating. The restated fundamentals suggest that Joyful Honda’s terms remain defensible.
• There are also factors supporting a change in the ratio. The likely outcome is Joyful securing a small (~5%) increase in its ratio, with concessions such as additional board seats.

• The TOPIX Index – Japan’s premier domestic equity index – will undergo a sea change in methodology at the end of this month, with ~760 names affected. 
• There will be roughly 35 or so ADDs, about 700 DELETEs (phased out over 8 quarters), and 40+ Liquidity Factor Removals. There will also be hundreds of FFW changes. 
• The likely ADDs have handily outperformed their peers over the past year, but some of that has been tech and idiosyncratic circumstances. There may still be trades to do.

Executive Summary

• Vertically Integrated Regional Challenger: Oatside operates as a premium plant-based beverage brand that has scaled its oat milk portfolio across 19 international markets and, in March 2026, extended into soya milk in Singapore and Malaysia under the Nobo brand. The company differentiates itself through a full-stack manufacturing model, utilising proprietary extraction technology at its owned facility in Bandung, Indonesia, to cater specifically to Asian taste profiles.
• High-Velocity Revenue Scaling: The business demonstrates strong commercial traction, with operating revenue nearly doubling year-on-year to reach US$74.9m in FY24 and expanding further to US$113.2m in FY25. This top-line expansion is supported by a top-tier institutional investor base that has provided at least US$171.9m across six disclosed primary transactions, with a reported implied post-money valuation of US$704.7m following its August 2025 preference share issue.
• Supply Chain Vulnerability: The company relies on the cross-border importation of specific raw materials, including Canadian soya beans and Australian oats, to supply its centralised manufacturing facility in Bandung, Indonesia. Any disruption to these international agricultural supply chains or a prolonged mechanical failure at this single production site would trigger immediate stockouts across its 19 active markets.

• Aerospace & Defence revenue rose 40.4% YoY to INR 123 crore in Q1 FY27, versus 26% growth in FY26.
• The aerospace business is a materially higher-margin activity than Raymond’s precision technology and auto-components vertical. 
• Raymond should increasingly be analysed as a precision-manufacturing platform rather than through its legacy conglomerate identity. 

• Share price has been punished, as there have been plenty pre-IPO investors who took profit, although operating numbers are actually doing quite well. 
• Laopu Gold (6181 HK) is different from Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK), as the former is more of a global luxury house than a goldsmith.
• At 7x PER and a 10% dividend yield, combined with the calming down of the sellers’ volume, Laopu Gold (6181 HK) may actually offer a value. 

• DFI Retail Group (DFI SP) has completed a pivotal operational turnaround, swinging from a net loss of USD 244.5m in FY2024 to a net profit of USD 234.7m in FY2025, underpinned by gross margin expansion to 36.46% and disciplined cost rationalization across core formats.
• Cash flow generation remains exceptionally robust, with FY2025 operating cash flows of USD 1,099.2m and free cash flows of USD 986.1m supporting an attractive dividend yield of 4.52% and significant multi-year dividend growth.
• While high-margin Health & Beauty (Mannings, Guardian) and Convenience (7-Eleven) store formats continue to drive core earnings resilience, top-line grocery expansion faces ongoing macroeconomic headwinds, including cross-border consumption shifts in Hong Kong and intense regional competition.

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• Oatside has established itself as one of Asia’s fastest-growing plant-based dairy brands, expanding across 19 markets and scaling revenue from US$41.4m in FY23 to US$113.2m in FY25, reaching pre-tax profitability.
• The company’s core strategic differentiator is its vertically integrated, full-stack manufacturing facility in Bandung, Indonesia, which drives supply chain control, custom flavor formulations tailored to Asian palates, and long-term margin expansion potential.
• Near-term institutional focus centers on navigating supply chain bottlenecks, achieving positive operating cash flow, institutionalizing executive bench strength following the lack of a designated COO, and successfully executing brand line extensions such as Nobo Soy.

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• Shares in Premier Investments rallied after a better-than-expected start to FY27, but a lasting recovery rests on Smiggle winning back customers.
• Premier Investments’ early FY27 trading update well-received Smiggle tries to win back 9-12 year old customers Cash and investments support potential acquisitions Management notes scope for further capital returns

• The dual-engine growth strategy is fundamentally broken due to capital mismatch. While restaurant operations require high capital expenditure (~$3.0 million net build-out costs per unit) but historically generated cash, the rapid consumer packaged goods (CPG) expansion is highly working-capital intensive, driving a massive increase in Cost of Goods Sold (COGS) to 39.1% of revenue and requiring an $11 million net debt draw to fund inventory build-ups.
• The proposed $100 million divestiture of U.S. restaurant operations is a survival-driven necessity, not just a strategic pivot. With cash reserves depleted to $5.9 million as of June 30, 2026, and comparable restaurant sales declining 9.3% in Q2 2026, the company cannot support both models; selling the restaurants is the only way to fund the Costco and wholesale CPG pipeline without extreme, highly dilutive equity raises.
• The $25 million Roth Principal Investments agreement acts as a highly dilutive, expensive backstop rather than a growth engine. Pricing discounts of 3.0% to 5.0% to VWAP combined with a 10% withholding fee (up to a $500,000 cap) and a potential 15 million share resale registration signal that institutional capital views GEN’s liquidity as highly precarious, putting a hard ceiling on equity valuation.

• To avoid being delisted from the TOPIX components, a company must reduce its cross-holdings and raise its stock price. Strengthening engagement with investors is also an effective strategy.
• While the TOPIX is clearly defined based on market capitalization of free-floating shares, the TSE Prime Market exhibits a certain ambiguity that seems to favor listed companies over investors.
• Stocks that are removed from TOPIX will need to attract investor attention through outperforming earnings more than ever before. They will also lose opportunities for engagement with domestic institutional investors.

• The TDIV index tracks the top 50 names in the Taiwan Stock Exchange with the highest dividend yields. It is a yield-weighted index with unique capping rules.
• In this insight, we take look at Quiddity’s expectations for index changes and capping flows for the TDIV Index for the December 2026 index rebal event.
• As of the latest data, we expect 4 ADDs and 4 DELs and one-way flows of ~US$3.4bn including capping effects.

• Strategic Pivot Toward AI and Autonomy Amid Core Margin Contraction: Tesla is navigating a multi-year structural transition from pure-play EV volume manufacturing to an AI-driven autonomous ecosystem, highlighted by the Cybercab launch and vision-based Full Self-Driving (FSD) architecture. This transition occurs against a backdrop of core automotive gross margin pressure resulting from aggressive global pricing competition, particularly from Chinese original equipment manufacturers (OEMs).
• Energy Storage Segment Emerging as a High-Growth Pillar: The Energy Generation and Storage segment (Megapack, Powerwall) is demonstrating exceptional operational momentum, with Q2 2026 deployments expanding ~40% YoY to 13.5 GWh. This high-margin utility-scale storage business provides substantial revenue diversification and margin support, counterbalancing cyclical headwinds in automotive hardware and the strategic sunsetting of non-core legacy solar roof assets.
• Substantial Liquidity Buffers Aggressive AI CapEx Acceleration: Intensified capital expenditure in compute infrastructure (Dojo, GPU clusters), robotaxi production lines, and next-generation vehicle architectures drove Q2 2026 Free Cash Flow into negative territory (-$1,092M). However, Tesla’s fortress balance sheet—comprising $43.5B in liquid cash and investments with minimal net debt—provides superior financial resilience to fund this multi-year innovation cycle without dilutive external financing.

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• Bluestone Jewellery and Lifestyle Limited (BLUESTON IN) has established itself as one of India’s preeminent digital-first omnichannel fine jewelry retailers, delivering a 38.7% revenue CAGR between FY24 and FY26 to reach INR 24,364.24M, driven by rapid network expansion and robust millennial consumer adoption.
• The company reached a pivotal operational milestone in FY26 by turning profitable with a net income of INR 148.37M (compared to a net loss of INR 2,216.69M in FY25), alongside a notable expansion in EBITDA margin to 16.13% and gross margin recovery to 18.78%, supported by an increasing mix of high-margin studded and daily-wear jewelry.
• Despite positive net earnings inflection, Bluestone continues to experience working capital strain and negative free cash flows (-INR 3,038.61M in FY26) due to capital-intensive store rollout and inventory requirements, making unit economics optimization and inventory turn enhancement critical for medium-term sustainability.

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• GEN Restaurant Group is an Asian casual dining concept founded in 2011, offering Korean food through 54 restaurants and a growing CPG division.
• The company’s CPG division represents its single largest opportunity for near-term growth, with products now in nearly 2,000 retail doors nationwide.
• While the CPG division is a key growth opportunity, the company may require additional financing to sustain its operations.

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Key points (machine generated)

• Beauty Kadan Holdings specializes in floral altars for funerals, wholesale flowers, and bridal arrangements.
• The company aims to enhance profitability and expand through mergers and acquisitions despite facing external challenges.
• Key strengths include a pioneering position in floral altars and competitive pricing, while challenges include trends towards smaller funerals and a declining birthrate.

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• We are reiterating our Buy rating, projections and $9 price target for Vince Holding after visiting the company’s recently acquired October’s Very Own (“OVO”) London flagship.
• Opening in November 2017, the London location remains the only non-North American outpost for the brand, and we believe offers a compelling shopping experience for the Drake fan or London fashion shopper.
• Situated in a key shopping area between Regent Street and Soho on the West End of London we believe the OVO stores offer a springboard to wholesale and potentially more international stores under Vince leadership.

• Nick Sleep is an investor who belongs in the Hall of Fame. 21% annualized returns over 13 years. He started buying cheap businesses.
• Over time, he reached a harder and more useful conclusion: buy a great business, then let it work for years.
• That is why I am on the hunt to find businesses I never have to sell.

• Milbon Co., Ltd (4919 JP) produced FY26 1H (Dec year-end) gross profit [GP] of ¥17,135mil (+10.5% YoY) and operating profit [OP] of ¥3,347mil (+72.7% YoY) on sales of ¥26,878mil (+8.3% YoY).
• While Domestic sales rose moderately [+2.8% YoY to ¥18,993mil], Overseas sales expanded at much faster pace [+24.7% YoY to ¥7,884mil] – a solid increase of +16.7% YoY on an LCY basis.
• Given the stronger-than-expected 1H results, Milbon revised up its full-year FY26 guidance from OP of ¥6,300mil (+11.4% YoY) on sales of ¥54,800mil (+3.7% YoY) to OP of ¥6,550mil (+15.9% YoY) on sales of ¥55,600mil (+5.2% YoY).