Daily Brief Consumer: Dongfeng Motor, Pop Mart, ABC Mart, FineToday Holdings, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SE and more

• I summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
• Highest spreads: Smart Share Global (EM US), Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Soft99 Corp (4464 JP), Dongfeng Motor (489 HK), Joy City Property (207 HK). 
• Lowest spreads: Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK), Pacific Industrial (7250 JP), Mandom Corp (4917 JP), Humm Group (HUM AU), Ainsworth Game Technology (AGI AU), Seven West Media (SWM AU). 

• Context:Pop Mart (9992 HK) begins trading monthly options on the Hong Kong Exchange (HKEX) on Monday, 13 October 2025, marking its debut in the derivatives market.
• This Insight examines expected implied volatility, referencing both realized volatility trends and peer valuations for context.
• Why Read: Gain early insight into Pop Mart’s option launch, including option specifications and how implied volatility could set the tone for first-day trading.

• Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.
• Highlights: Currently 14 pair trade opportunities across four markets and six sectors persist.
• Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.

• FineToday Holdings (420A JP), a Japanese personal care business, is seeking to raise US$280 million. It previously pulled an IPO to raise US$500 million in December 2024.
• I previously discussed the investment thesis in FineToday Holdings (420A JP) IPO: The Investment Case. 
• In this note, I present my forecasts and valuation. My analysis suggests that FineToday is fully valued at the IPO price.

• Financial statements and accompanying explanations alone provide insufficient information about the background of earnings results and guidance, so overseas investors seek qualitative and information about long-term strategies regarding earnings information.
• Currently, only half of Prime Market-listed companies disclose full earnings releases in English. It’s only natural that investors would want IR briefing materials to be disclosed in English as well.
• Companies whose top management cannot communicate directly in English with overseas investors should provide simultaneous interpretation or written English translations for their investor relations presentations.

• LVMH’s decentralized model, managing a vast portfolio of over 75 distinct luxury Maisons, provides significant diversification across segments and geographies, mitigating risk and ensuring stable revenue streams.
• The company faces near-term headwinds from macroeconomic uncertainties and a slowdown in aspirational consumer spending, particularly in Asia, as reflected in a recent organic revenue decline.
• Management’s strategy focuses on elevating core ‘mega-brands’ like Louis Vuitton and Dior, divesting non-core assets, and enhancing local customer engagement to navigate the current challenging environment and support long-term profitability.

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