In today’s briefing:
- Ampol (ALD AU) Vs. Woodside Energy (WDS AU): Mean-Reversion Signal in Aussie Energy
- [Earnings Preview] BP Set for Mixed Q2 as Strong Refining and Trading Offset Price Pressures
- EDG: Drill Results Continue to Roll In; Strong Antimony Intersection
- OMG: 20,500m Drilled YTD; Result Impress; Increasing Target
- [Henry Hub Options Weekly 2025/30] Henry Hub Tumbled as Supply Surged and Sentiment Shifted
- [WTI Options Weekly 2025/30] WTI Slips Again as Supply Concerns Outweigh Trade Optimism
- Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 28 July
- Southern Energy Corp. (SOUC LN/SOU CN): IP30 flow rate at first DUC could derisk up to 45 new locations in the Lower Selma Chalk
- Hybridan Small Cap Feast: 21/07/2025
- Americas/EMEA base oils supply outlook: Week of 28 July
Ampol (ALD AU) Vs. Woodside Energy (WDS AU): Mean-Reversion Signal in Aussie Energy
- Context: The Ampol (ALD AU) vs. Woodside (WDS AU) price-ratio has diverged more than two standard deviations from its one-year average – a classic signal for a potential mean-reversion trade.
- Highlights: Going long Ampol (ALD AU) and short Woodside (WDS AU) targets a 7% return if the price ratio reverts to its one-standard-deviation threshold.
- Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.
[Earnings Preview] BP Set for Mixed Q2 as Strong Refining and Trading Offset Price Pressures
- BP’s Q2 2025 revenue is expected to drop 10% QoQ and 10.7% YoY. However, its EPS is projected to rise by 30.8% QoQ but fall by 32% YoY.
- Lower oil and gas realizations are expected to drag earnings by up to USD 1.1 billion, but strong refining margins and oil trading performance could offset the blow.
- Options positioning reflects mild bullish sentiment, with traders favouring calls near current levels, suggesting expectations of a modest post-earnings upside.
EDG: Drill Results Continue to Roll In; Strong Antimony Intersection
- This morning, EDG announced assay results for four drill holes at its Reliance Gold Project as part of its 2025 exploration campaign.
- Today’s highlight hole returned 5.63 g/t Au and 5.12% Sb over 3.3m, representing the best antimony grade over width intersection to date.
- At current antimony prices, this intercept adds about 10 g/t AuEq (gold equivalent) to the 5.63 g/t gold intercept.
OMG: 20,500m Drilled YTD; Result Impress; Increasing Target
- Omai reported drill results from six holes (3,760m), part of the expanded >25,000m 2025 drill program at Wenot.
- Highlights include 31.7 g/t Au over 7.5m, 2.64 g/t Au over 41.8m, and 3.49 g/t Au over 17.4m (with several other notable highlights).
- 37 holes have been completed YTD (20,500m); results from eight holes remain pending.
[Henry Hub Options Weekly 2025/30] Henry Hub Tumbled as Supply Surged and Sentiment Shifted
- For the week ending 25/Jul, Henry Hub dropped 12.8% on the back of mild weather forecasts, record output, and stagnant LNG flows.
- For the week ending 18/Jul, the EIA reported that U.S. natural gas inventories rose by 23 Bcf, lower than analyst expectations of a 28 Bcf build.
- Henry Hub OI PCR fell to 0.84 on 25/Jul compared to 18/Jul. Call OI grew by 6.5% WoW, while put OI rose by 3.2%.
[WTI Options Weekly 2025/30] WTI Slips Again as Supply Concerns Outweigh Trade Optimism
- WTI crude declined 1.4% for the week ending 25/Jul, pressured by oversupply concerns and renewed U.S. tariff threats, despite midweek gains from inventory draws and trade optimism.
- The U.S. rig count fell by two to 542, marking its twelfth weekly fall in thirteen weeks. Oil rigs by seven to 415, marking its thirteenth consecutive weekly fall.
- WTI OI PCR remained at 0.96 on 25/Jul compared to 18/Jul. Call OI inched up by 3.1% WoW, while put OI rose by 3.8%.
Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 28 July
- India’s imported Group I heavy neutrals base oils cargo price strengthens relative to FOB Asia and Europe prices in July 2025.
- India’s rising price-differential for Group I SN 500 follows drop in availability of the supplies from Iran especially in recent months.
- India’s imports of Group I heavy neutrals fall to eighteen-month low in June 2025, mostly because of drop in supplies from Middle East.
Southern Energy Corp. (SOUC LN/SOU CN): IP30 flow rate at first DUC could derisk up to 45 new locations in the Lower Selma Chalk
- • The GH LSC 13-13 #2 well (Lower Selma Chalk) commenced production at ~4.0 mmcf/d and averaged 3.6 mmcf/d over its IP30 period.
- Although below the initial 5.5 mmcf/d forecast, the observed decline rate is notably shallower than expected, with flow rates holding at 3.4 mmcf/d after one month (~15% decline).
- • This performance benchmarks favourably against Upper Selma Chalk (USC) wells, which typically exhibit higher IP30 rates of 5.0–6.5 mmcf/d but decline more steeply, often down to ~3.0 mmcf/d within the first month.
Hybridan Small Cap Feast: 21/07/2025
- A medical technology Company focused on the durable healing of wounds and the prevention of amputations announces its trading update for the six months ended 30 June 2025 as well as an update to FY 2025 guidance.
- The Company expects to report revenue for the Period of not less than $31m (H1 2024: $26.3m), representing growth of not less than 18% (H1 2024: 26.4%).
- In the first three months of the Period, the Company recorded revenue growth of approximately 26%.
Americas/EMEA base oils supply outlook: Week of 28 July
- US base oils export prices extend fall versus feedstock/competing fuel prices.
- Increasingly firm heating oil premium to crude oil compounds weakness of base oils prices.
- Diverging price trends could prompt moves to divert more feedstock supplies into diesel pool.
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