Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Gold, Hang Seng Index, Impack Pratama Industri Tbk, Iron Ore, Rubber Future SGX TSR20, Capitan Silver , NAC Kazatomprom JSC and more

• Central banks have been buying gold since after the GFC to diversify from US Dollars, underpinning the market with tightness
• Gold bull markets have been influenced by periods of conflict and economic stability, with central banks playing a significant role in influencing the price
• The second gold bull market starting around 2000 saw the gold industry aggressively buying back their hedges, pushing the price up alongside central bank buying and market forces

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• Quiet trade across Hong Kong Single Stock this week with HSI’s weekly range near the lows of the year.
• Implied vols were mixed and are still clinging to the lowest levels of the year.
• Options activity lower week over week, led by declines in Put trading.

• Dominant Market Leader with Strong Growth: Impack Pratama is a clear leader in the Indonesian plastic building materials sector, holding an estimated 90% market share in polycarbonate roofing and 70% in uPVC roofing. This dominance is translating into exceptional financial performance, with 3-year CAGRs for revenue and net income at 20.30% and 36.94%, respectively.
• Favorable Industry Tailwinds: The Indonesian construction market is poised for steady growth, driven by government infrastructure spending, urbanization, and a rising middle class. Projections indicate a market expansion of 5.48% to 7.50% annually, creating a robust demand environment for IMPC’s products.
• Premium Valuation Reflects Quality, But Poses Risk: The company’s strong performance and market position command a high valuation, with a P/E ratio of 37.2x. While justified by its growth trajectory, this premium makes the stock susceptible to shifts in market sentiment and earnings disappointments. The low dividend yield and inconsistent payout history may also deter income-focused investors.

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• Simandou’s arrival and softer mill output signal a clear shift toward weaker near-term demand, even as some investors position for policy surprises.
• Technical signals point to stretched momentum, with the broader setup now tilting toward elevated odds of a near-term mean-reversion pullback.
• The 65–62 spread climbed sharply this week, while the 62–58 spread moved lower, marking a notable divergence across grade differentials.

Highlights

• ENSO Conditions to be Neutral to Negative, But Not Falling to La Nina

• Session at COP30 Focuses on Smallholders in Climate Action

•  Integrating Climate Resilience into Production Systems Not Optional

  Dr. S. Abhilash, Director, Advanced Centre for Atmospheric Radar Research, Cochin University of Science and Technology, Kochi, India, warns the Indonesia and Malaysia regions of above normal rainfall in December that can impact rubber supply as well.

• What you need to know: • CAPT announced an updated MRE at its Capitan Hill Oxide Gold Deposit.
• • The resource increased from 305Koz Au in 2020 to 525Koz today, and today’s resource is pit-constrained.
• • Two-thirds of the 2025 15,000m drill program is complete, with only one-third of the assay results released.

• Operations remain strong with volume rising and revenue up on the continued rise in uranium prices in Q3/25, although the metal has cooled in Q4/25 
• Domestic macro remains a drag on the valuation, with the NBK hiking its base rate 1.5% in October 2025 to combat rising inflation, boosting our discount rate significantly   
• After over a 40% rise since June 2025 our valuation is now about -20% below the current price, although the P/B still looks low, especially versus Cameco’s surging multiple