In today’s briefing:
- NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: 69% One-Way Turnover & US$1.9bn Trade
- MV Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance Preview: Three Potential Deletions in June
- Eurasia Mining- Initiation of Coverage
- NMDC Ltd (NSE: NMDC) – Volume-Led Growth Story with Re-Rating Potential
- Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 2 June
- Sustainable Investing Surveyor Focus on Alto Ingredients
- Jindalee Lithium Ltd. – Resource of Inherent Strategic Value for US Self-Sufficiency
- Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 2 June
- Americas/EMEA base oils supply outlook: Week of 2 June
- Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 2 June
NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: 69% One-Way Turnover & US$1.9bn Trade
- There could be 20 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 27 June.
- If all changes are on expected lines, one-way turnover is estimated at 68.7% and that will result in a round-trip trade of INR 159bn (US$1.87bn).
- Financials are expected to gain 9 index spots and Materials are expected to gain 3 spots. Consumer Discretionary could lose 5 spots and Information Technology could lose 4 spots.
MV Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance Preview: Three Potential Deletions in June
- With the review period complete, we forecast no inclusions to the index in June. There could be up to 3 deletions at the review though.
- Even if there are no constituent changes, capping changes will lead to one-way turnover of 3.9% and a round-trip trade of A$216m.
- Pilbara Minerals is a potential deletion from the S&P/ASX 50 Index with implementation on the same date. Shorts have been covering but short interest is a big percentage of float.
Eurasia Mining- Initiation of Coverage
- Eurasia Mining joined AIM in 1999 as a Russia-focused metals and mining company.
- Initially in a JV with Anglo Platinum, the company undertook extensive exploration (gold, gold-copper & PGMs) in the Urals and the Kola Peninsula, which led to the West Kytlim and Monchetundra discoveries that Eurasia went on to acquire.
- The company has successfully advanced battery metals and hydrogen metal mines into production in the Russian Arctic.
NMDC Ltd (NSE: NMDC) – Volume-Led Growth Story with Re-Rating Potential
- Last 3 Years: NMDC’s PAT grew steadily from Rs3,774 Cr in FY23 to Rs6,693 Cr in FY25 (CAGR ~33%), driven by volume growth and margin expansion.
- Guidance & Plans: Targets 55.4 MT (24% growth) in FY26 and 100 MT by 2030, backed by infra, EC capacity, and pellet expansion.
- Re-Rating Potential: Meeting volume, margin, and execution targets could trigger valuation re-rating from current below-peer multiples.
Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 2 June
- US domestic Group I SN 500 price rises to premium to Group II N600 price in May 2025 for first time in more than four years.
- In Middle East, CFR UAE Group I SN 500 price discount to Group II N500 shrinks to narrowest in more than seven months.
- In Asia, FOB Asia Group I SN 500 price strengthens vs Group II N500 in May 2025 to firmest level in six months.
Sustainable Investing Surveyor Focus on Alto Ingredients
- The WTR Sustainable Index was down 0.5% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (up 1.9%), the Russell 2000 Index (up 1.3%), and the Nasdaq Index (up 2.0%).
- Energy Technology (12.4% of the index) was up 1.1%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (47.9% of the index) was down 0.1%, ClimateTech Mining was up 0.1%, and Advanced Transportation Solutions (21.2% of the index) was down 2.1%.
- Top 10 Performers: BNET, LNZA, ETL, NVVE, REVV, OPAL, WML, HYLN, LOOP, GWTI
Jindalee Lithium Ltd. – Resource of Inherent Strategic Value for US Self-Sufficiency
- Lithium price recovery is a matter of when, not if. Lithium prices that peaked in 2022 at ~$80/kg on heavy inventory build, driven by supply chain concerns, and subsequently collapsed to $8-10/kg, due to oversupply and the slower uptake of EVs in the US and Europe, could begin to recover, perhaps as early as next year.
- This takes into account that 40% of the industry is operating at a loss in the current price environment and demand for the metal remains robust, with energy storage markets growing 65% Y/Y and EVs growing 29% Y/Y in 1Q25.
- China’s role in mining and dominance in processing.
Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 2 June
- Global base oils prices mostly hold firm vs feedstock/competing fuel prices, especially in Europe and Asia.
- Firm price differentials point to strong supply-demand fundamentals, incentivize refiners to supply more volumes for those markets.
- Demand would need to hold firm to absorb any such pick-up in supplies.
Americas/EMEA base oils supply outlook: Week of 2 June
- US Group II base oils prices hold in narrow range vs VGO since mid-April 2025.
- Steady price differentials contrast with surge in margins in Q2 2024.
- Steadier margins so far in Q2 2025 coincide with time of year when supply-demand fundamentals are likely to be tighter than usual.
Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 2 June
- Asia’s heavy-grade base oils price-premium to Singapore gasoil stays unusually high.
- Firm base oils premium suggests supply remains tight and demand firm, incentivizing refiners to raise output.
- Gap between Group II light and heavy-grade base oils prices widens more even after restart of growing number of base oils units following scheduled maintenance work.
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