In today’s briefing:
- Alibaba (BABA): 3Q25, Main Business Growth Close to Double Digits
- Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium Eases Down; Massive Change in UMC Headroom
- BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Update (February 20)
- Alibaba’s C4Q24 Result Says the Inflection Point of Chinese AI Has Arrived for the Capital Markets
- Amazon.com Inc – Amazon’s AI Billions, Store Struggles, & The Risks No One Is Talking About!
- Softbank (9984) Is Trading Cheap, And That Could Be An Opportunity
- Kalyan Jewellers (KALYANKJ IN) | FOCO Model Warrants Attention
- China Could Lift Ban on Korean Popular Culture (Hallyu) As Early As May 2025
- Adani Energy Solutions Limited Q3 FY25 Update
- Tech Supply Chain Tracker (21-Feb-2025): Honda-Nissan merger drama as Renault strengthens ties.
Alibaba (BABA): 3Q25, Main Business Growth Close to Double Digits
- Total revenue growth rate continued to rise in 3Q25 ending March 2025.
- Also, the growth rate of the largest business line, customer management, was close to double digits.
- The upside for the next twelve months was narrowed to 18%, as Alibaba’s stock surged after our preview note.
Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium Eases Down; Massive Change in UMC Headroom
- TSMC: +22.2% Premium; Wait for Higher Level Before Fresh Short of Spread
- UMC: 0% Premium (Parity) — Massive Increase in ADR Headroom
- ChipMOS: +0.5% Premium; Wait for More Extreme Levels; Earnings Ahead
BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Update (February 20)
- Hong Kong’s secular bull market continues this year with record buying from mainland investors through the Southbound Connect platform.
- AAC Technologies Holdings (2018 HK) announced a positive profit alert of of 150% increase in profit for 2024. The AI, phone and auto segments saw value content increases.
- Hua Hong Semiconductor (1347 HK) is well-positioned to cater to China’s increasing demand for locally designed and produced chips, especially in the EV, smart home appliances and wearables industries.
Alibaba’s C4Q24 Result Says the Inflection Point of Chinese AI Has Arrived for the Capital Markets
- After rallying ~50% from its lows, Alibaba rallied another ~10% after reporting in-line result, despite saying it would spend more capex in the next 3 years than the previous 10;
- Behind this performance is a sudden clarification of AI’s monetization future in China. Alibaba’s vision certainly has itself at the center of beneficiary, but a few other readings also exist;
- Alibaba suggested that partial replacement of human worker is possible in a platform with structured workflow, allowing AI users to reap benefits earlier than we have anticipated.
Amazon.com Inc – Amazon’s AI Billions, Store Struggles, & The Risks No One Is Talking About!
- Amazon.com reported a strong fourth quarter for 2024, with a revenue of $187.8 billion, reflecting a year-over year growth of 10%.
- Notably, this growth was primarily driven by the company’s strategic focus on expanding its product selection, competitive pricing, and enhanced delivery services, which significantly boosted customer engagement and unit sales, especially in the North American and International segments.
- The company’s operating income also saw a substantial improvement, reaching $21.2 billion, marking a 61% increase from the previous year, further supported by effective cost management and productivity improvements throughout its distribution network.
Softbank (9984) Is Trading Cheap, And That Could Be An Opportunity
- Softbank’s investment in Arm, valued at around USD 148 billion, is its new NAV driver, after its 300% rally post its IPO.
- Despite an ongoing share buyback and an LTV near 12.9%, Softbank is still trading around a 59% discount to its net asset value.
- Softbank looks like a good proxy for investing in Arm and being long Softbank and Short Arm looks like reasonable risk/reward at current levels.
Kalyan Jewellers (KALYANKJ IN) | FOCO Model Warrants Attention
- We believe Kalyan Jewellers (KALYANKJ IN) ‘s FOCO (Franchise Owned, Company Operated) model warrants deeper attention
- Our casual checks question the company’s store expansion narrative vs on ground reality.
- Our conversation seems to indicate franchisees are financial partners only.
China Could Lift Ban on Korean Popular Culture (Hallyu) As Early As May 2025
- One of the big thematic events on the Korean stock market has been the expectation that China could lift ban on Korean popular culture (Hallyu) as early as May 2025.
- China’s President Xi recently stated “Cultural exchanges are a valuable part of our bilateral relations [between China and Korea]. We should avoid any problems occurring in handling such matters.”
- We provide a list of 40 stocks in Korea that could most benefit from the end of lifting ban of Korean popular culture.
Adani Energy Solutions Limited Q3 FY25 Update
- Adani Energy Solutions (ADANIT IN) Q3 FY25 shows 15% revenue growth to Rs. 6,000 crores, an 80% PAT increase, and aggressive capex investments, driven by robust transmission and smart metering initiatives.
- Strong financial performance, combined with increased capex and operational efficiency in transmission and smart metering, signals enhanced market positioning and long-term growth potential in a supportive energy sector.
- AESL significantly increases its capex ramp-up by around 3 times driven by unparallel project and operating excellence coupled with robust capital management program.
Tech Supply Chain Tracker (21-Feb-2025): Honda-Nissan merger drama as Renault strengthens ties.
- Honda-Nissan merger and Renault-Geely alliance shake up auto industry landscape, causing speculation and uncertainty.
- AI technology leading to increased demand for edge computing and device upgrades due to affordable costs and improved efficiency.
- Liquid-cooled fast charging technology set to revolutionize EV charging by 2025, allowing for ultrafast charging speeds. Tesla’s India factory plans criticized by Trump. Grok 3 drives spike in AI server demand.
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