Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Pan American Silver — Strong Q125 and more

Pan American Silver (PAAS) delivered strong quarterly results, with higher commodity prices boosting revenues and lowering costs. Q125 EBITDA was US$330m, just 5% shy of the seasonally strongest Q4 number, as costs were markedly below and production was in line with quarterly guidance for both segments. The company maintained its FY25 operating outlook, which points to seasonally strong quarters ahead. PAAS also announced a proposed acquisition of MAG Silver (MAG), valuing the company at US$2.1bn. MAG owns 44% in a top-tier Juanicipio silver operation in Mexico. In this note, we provide an initial take on the transaction, while keeping our revised estimates and valuation of PAAS on a standalone basis.

• Indusind Bank (IIB IN) does not seem to be able to get out of hot water.
• In yet another accounting and governance pothole, the bank has disclosed a surprising take on interest income, which was overstated by INR 6.7 bn. 
• The internal audit department also reported unsubstantiated balances of INR 6 bn in other assets, which was netted off with liabilities. 

• New Horizon Aircraft is a Canada-based aviation company specializing in the development of hybrid electric Vertical Takeoff and Landing (eVTOL) aircraft
• HOVR’s flagship aircraft, the Cavorite X7 is likely to be commercially available in the next 24 to 36 months. HOVR has already completed the development of a 50%-scale prototype.
• The timeline looks achievable, and the Company has already committed to supplying five Cavorite X7 to Air Chile Ltd by the end of 2028.

• Tsi Holdings (3608 JP) is a leading apparel company in Japan. Net cash was 45 billion yen at end of February 2025, representing 58% of its current market cap.
• The company has an excellent record of increasing its BPS, reducing outstanding shares, and buying back shares. Valuations have become more attractive.
• Its share price has had a nice pullback in the past three months (down 22% from its peak levels in February 2025). 

• Q4 FY25 volumes grew 1.8%, value declined; FY26 guidance is for low growth with 18–20% margins supported by integration and cost control.
• Grasim and JSW are aggressively expanding with large capex and dealer networks, intensifying pricing pressure in decorative paints.
• Stock corrected 15–20% but still trades at ~55x P/E, which remains expensive given slowing growth and rising competitive risks.

• GMDC delivered strong FY25 results with 8MT of lignite sales and Rs992 crore in EBITDA, its second-best performance.
• The company is focused on scaling lignite and coal volumes through new mines within Gujarat and Odisha. It also plans to diversify into rare earths and critical minerals. 
• While valuations appear slightly elevated, upside optionality exists from the revival of Akrimota power plant and operationalization of new mines.

• Revenue increased to JPY1.2bn (+24.4% YoY), driven by growth in WafCharm and CloudFastener, with ARR at JPY4.5bn (+30.9% YoY).
• Operating profit declined to JPY241mn (-23.6% YoY) due to increased operating expenses, including personnel and outsourcing costs.
• Shadankun’s ARR reached JPY1.7bn (+6.1% YoY) with a user count of 1,322 companies and a churn rate of 1.06%.

• Consolidated sales reached JPY262.1bn (+2.5% YoY), with operating profit at JPY13.1bn (+54.0% YoY), driven by market recovery.
• Segment sales varied, with packaging inks declining in Asia, while jet inks for digital printing increased significantly.
• Operating profit rose in Japan and overseas, supported by cost savings and stable sales prices across product lines.

• Akzo Nobel N.V. earlier announced its plans to exit India to focus on core markets where it holds a position of “differentiating scale.
• JSW Paints has reportedly entered exclusive talks to acquire Akzo India, edging out Advent–Indigo and Pidilite.
• Shareholders may tender in the open offer or stay invested for potential upside via JSW which has a long stellar track-record.

• FY03/25 revenue was JPY60.6bn (+2.4% YoY), operating profit JPY4.7bn (+2.4% YoY), net income JPY2.9bn (-6.0% YoY).
• Medical Services revenue rose 4.2% YoY, Home Furnishing and Health revenue decreased 1.3% YoY, with GPM at 54.6%.
• FY03/26 forecast: revenue JPY62.3bn (+2.9% YoY), operating profit JPY4.8bn (+1.1% YoY), net income JPY3.1bn (+3.5% YoY).