In today’s briefing:
- TSMC 4Q24 Results Signal Multi-Year Market Share Gains; Margin Strength; Sustainable Industry Growth
- TSMC Results / Guidance Beat. 2025 Capex and AI Revenue up Strongly.
- TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 4Q24 Results and 1Q25 Guidance; CoWoS Grows 45% CAGR; Setup of 10 Fabs WW.
- Forensic Analysis: Kalyan Jewellers on Allegations and Rumours ~ Cause And Reality
- Legend Biotech Surges Amid Takeover Speculation—What’s Next for CARVYKTI?
- Estée Lauder: Activist Buzz & Takeover Speculations – What’s Next For The Cosmetics Giant?
- Asia Real Estate Tracker (16-Jan-2025): Scape secures $434M from Korea’s NPS.
- The Beat Ideas: Natco Pharma, The Cheapest Pharma Stock
- Wintermar Offshore Marine (WINS IJ) – Well-Positioned for the Upcycle
- Toyota’s EV Woes: Struggling To Find The Fast Lane In Electric Mobility
TSMC 4Q24 Results Signal Multi-Year Market Share Gains; Margin Strength; Sustainable Industry Growth
- TSMC 4Q24 Gross Margin Comes In At High End of Range; Profit +57% YoY
- TSMC’s Latest Strong Capex Guidance is Good News for Industry Sentiment
- Long-Term Gross Margins — Will Recently High Gross Margins Become a “New Normal”?
TSMC Results / Guidance Beat. 2025 Capex and AI Revenue up Strongly.
- 4Q24 beat Consensus by ~4%, 1Q25 guidance ~7% above Consensus at OP level.
- 2025 revenue up mid-20%. AI revenues will double or more depending on capacity bottlenecks (2023 5%, 2024 15% of total revenues). 2025 Capex US$40bn, from 2024 30bn.
- The stock is trading at 18.8x 2025 and 15.8x 2026 Consensus EPS. This is cheap for the ~25% growth outlook over 2025-26.
TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 4Q24 Results and 1Q25 Guidance; CoWoS Grows 45% CAGR; Setup of 10 Fabs WW.
- Revenue reached USD$26.88 billion (compared to guidance of 26.1-26.9 billion USD) / NTD$868.46 billion (+14.3% QoQ, +38.8% YoY); Gross margin at 59%,within the guided range of 57-59%.
- Revenue expected to be in the range of USD$25-25.8 billion (-5.5% QoQ) impacted by seasonal factors, offset by AI demand. Gross margin: 57-59%.
- AI revenue is expected to double in 2025. With the advancement of AI technologies, the company anticipates mid-40s CAGR for AI accelerators within a five-year period (2024-2029),
Forensic Analysis: Kalyan Jewellers on Allegations and Rumours ~ Cause And Reality
- Steep decline in the stock price triggered a wave of speculation and rumours, further fueling the negative sentiment surrounding Kalyan Jewellers (KALYANKJ IN).
- The rumours ranged from serious allegations of inventory overvaluation and IT raids to concerns about changes in franchisee agreements and even accusations of bribery.
- While Kalyan Jewellers (KALYANKJ IN) has dismissed the overvaluation allegations, its inventory turnover ratio (ITR) has consistently lagged behind the industry leader Titan Co Ltd (TTAN IN) .
Legend Biotech Surges Amid Takeover Speculation—What’s Next for CARVYKTI?
- Legend Biotech has been making headlines with its breakthrough CAR-T therapy, CARVYKTI, which has revolutionized the treatment of multiple myeloma.
- This pioneering therapy, co commercialized with Johnson & Johnson, has achieved record-setting launches and boasts a significant survival benefit over standard treatments.
- The company’s robust clinical pipeline, recent partnerships, and aggressive manufacturing expansions signal strong growth potential.
Estée Lauder: Activist Buzz & Takeover Speculations – What’s Next For The Cosmetics Giant?
- Estée Lauder Companies, a titan in the global cosmetics industry, has recently found itself at the epicenter of takeover and activist speculation.
- Reports have reignited discussions about potential acquisition interest and the involvement of activist investors.
- Betaville’s “uncooked” alert suggested renewed whispers of a takeover, while past rumors linked activist investor Nelson Peltz to Estée Lauder, although significant hurdles persist given the family’s control over the company.
Asia Real Estate Tracker (16-Jan-2025): Scape secures $434M from Korea’s NPS.
- Scape, a living platform, receives a significant investment of $434 million from Korea’s NPS, boosting its growth and expansion.
- Ho Bee Land makes a competitive bid of $242 million for an Australian builder, directly challenging Proprium Capital in the real estate market.
- Korea’s NPS joins forces with Almanac Realty in a $800 million real estate joint venture, solidifying their presence in the industry.
The Beat Ideas: Natco Pharma, The Cheapest Pharma Stock
- Natco Pharma (NTCPH IN) is pivoting toward niche, high-value generics like Revlimid and Semaglutide, leveraging robust R&D, strategic acquisitions, and geographic expansions for long-term market leadership.
- This approach combats conventional generic pricing pressures, delivers stronger profit margins, and positions Natco for sustainable, innovation-driven success in increasingly competitive regulated markets.
- Natco’s willingness to tackle complex molecules and patent challenges demonstrates resilience, signaling a more diversified pipeline, prudent capital use, and potential for robust shareholder returns.
Wintermar Offshore Marine (WINS IJ) – Well-Positioned for the Upcycle
- Wintermar Offshore Marine has seen a distinct turnaround in its fortunes over the last two years and is now well-positioned to benefit from an upcycle in the Offshore Services space.
- Charter rates have started to move up in an environment with low vessel supply, especially in the high-tier space where Wintermar has most exposure with new vessels being added.
- Wintermar has net cash, putting it in a strong position to increase its fleet into the upcycle driven by increased offshore exploration in Southeast Asia. Valuations remain attractive.
Toyota’s EV Woes: Struggling To Find The Fast Lane In Electric Mobility
- Toyota Motor Corporation, the world’s largest automaker by production volume, finds itself at a critical juncture in the global automotive industry.
- Despite a commendable first-half operating income of ¥2.464 trillion for fiscal 2025 and a full-year forecast of ¥4.3 trillion, the company’s electrification strategy—or lack thereof—remains a contentious issue.
- While Toyota has mastered the art of hybrid and internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, it continues to lag significantly behind competitors like Tesla and BYD in the electric vehicle (EV) space.
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