In today’s briefing:
- Kelun-Biotech (科伦博泰) IPO Trading: Lukewarm Demand but Peers Have Done Well Recently
- Opportunistic Deal with Grounds for a Bump-Up
- Moderna (MRNA US): Second Product Submission Is Not Big Enough Needle-Mover
- Pre-IPO HighTide Therapeutics – Its Outlook in NASH Field Is Not Optimistic, with High Risks
- Illumina Inc.: Expansion of Genomics Capacity With New Pact & Other Drivers
- UnitedHealth Q2 Earnings Preview: Volatility En Route
Kelun-Biotech (科伦博泰) IPO Trading: Lukewarm Demand but Peers Have Done Well Recently
- Kelun-Biotech raised HKD 1,259m (USD 161m) from its global offering and will list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on Tuesday, July 10th.
- In our previous note, we looked at the company’s business lines of ADC products. We were of the view that the IPO is fairly priced, at best.
- In this note, we provide an update for the IPO before trading debut.
Opportunistic Deal with Grounds for a Bump-Up
- Prior to announcement, net cash of Boiron SA (BOI FP) represented 1/3rd of market cap. Most of that cash will now be distributed, conditional on deal success.
- Although the premium is 36%, at 9.2x EV/Fwd EBIT, the offer seems cheap vs. comparables. The deal is neutral for the Boirons, whom will get a c.€126 million special dividend.
- The offer facilitates the entry of a private equity healthcare specialist. Delisting requires acceptances from 57.6% of the float. Gross spread is +0.4%. Investors may require an offer around €52.
Moderna (MRNA US): Second Product Submission Is Not Big Enough Needle-Mover
- Moderna Inc (MRNA US) has submitted marketing authorization applications for the investigational RSV vaccine, mRNA-1345, in Europe and Australia and initiated submission process in the U.S.
- Moderna anticipates to launch RSV vaccine in 2024 in US. Each year in US, approximately 60,000–120,000 older adults are hospitalized, and 6,000–10,000 of them die due to RSV infection.
- This year, FDA has already approved two RSV vaccines, Arexvy from GSK and Abrysvo from Pfizer, which are scheduled to be launched in the U.S. by this fall.
Pre-IPO HighTide Therapeutics – Its Outlook in NASH Field Is Not Optimistic, with High Risks
- The mechanism of NASH has not yet been accurately determined. Among the major players, FDA has postponed the approval of OCA (FXR) for NASH. THR-β is currently the most promising.
- HighTide claims that HTD1801 is able to achieve the goal of improving effectiveness and reducing toxicity. However, HTD1801 hasn’t reached pathological endpoints. We’ll have to wait for future clinical data.
- This Company actually has high risk due to cash shortage and uncertain R&D progress, which could lead to lower-than-expected stock price performance. We are conservative about HighTide based on analysis.
Illumina Inc.: Expansion of Genomics Capacity With New Pact & Other Drivers
- Illumina managed to surpass the revenue expectations as well as the earnings expectations of Wall Street.
- In Q1, Illumina produced revenue of about $1.09 billion.
- Illumina also unveiled Illumina Complete Long-Read technology and Illumina Connected Insights.
UnitedHealth Q2 Earnings Preview: Volatility En Route
- UnitedHealth Group Incorporated is set to release its second-quarter results on Friday, the 14th.
- However, its Q2 report is tough to call, we warn investors that volatility will likely surface within the coming days.
- UnitedHealth is a surreal earnings beater, but it’s a surreal beater.
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