Daily Brief Health Care: Samsung Biologics, Context Therapeutics, I-Mab and more

• In 2022, Samsung Biologics (207940 KS) posted record-high consolidated revenue of KRW3 trillion and, driven by new orders, efficient plant utilization, and inclusion of Samsung Bioepis as a wholly-owned subsidiary.
• Plant 4 is on track to be completed in H12023, with active pre-sale activities are rapidly locking in capacity. Strong order momentum continued, with 2022 CMO contract amount of $9.5B.
• Samsung Bioepis reported revenue growth of 12% to KRW946B, driven by stable sales of existing products and new product launch. Humira biosimilar launch in the US is the biggest catalyst.

On 27 January, the US FDA approved Stemline Therapeutics’ (wholly owned US subsidiary of the Menarini group) elacestrant (Orserdu) as second-line treatment for ER+/HER2-, ESR1-mutated advanced or metastatic breast cancer (mBC), making it the first oral selective estrogen receptor degrader (SERD) to be approved for the indication and the first-ever approved drug for cases with the ESR1 mutation (~40%of all cases in this category). We see this as a material development for Context Therapeutics, which is currently undertaking Phase Ib trials (ELONA trial in collaboration with Menarini) for its drug ONA-XR in combination with elacestrant for the treatment of second/third-line HR+/HER2- mBC. ONA-XR has previously shown promising preclinical data in combination with anti-estrogen therapy, and improved efficacy, if demonstrated in the ELONA trial, should open the door for partnering prospects and create significant market opportunity for Context, in our opinion.

• Many people aren’t optimistic about CD47 because there is no sufficient evidence to solve blood toxicity. Although I-MAB’s problem-solving idea has no obvious flaws in logic, risks remain.
• CD73 is still at a relatively “shallow level”, which can be understood as a low level of verification. I-MAB has to make a last-ditch effort on CD47.
• At such low market cap, Investors could make an “entertaining bet”. If CD47 is successful, you can earn several times. If not, then admit the defeat.