In today’s briefing:
- Adani Power: Navigating Challenges
- Sagility India IPO Lockup – US$1.5bn Lockup Release; PE Promoter Will Have to Trim for Free-Float
- Nuvoco Vistas: Improving Performance and Strategic Expansion
- Adani Ports – Earnings Flash – FY 2024-25 Results – Lucror Analytics
- Business Breakdown: Associated Alcohols- The Spirit of Bold Expansion
- JSW Steel–BPSL Acquisition: Court Verdict, Strategic Importance, and Investment Implications
Adani Power: Navigating Challenges
- Adani Power delivered strong FY25 earnings and plans to expand capacity to 30.7 GW by FY30 through brownfield, greenfield, and acquisition-driven growth.
- Godda, Jharkhand (110km from Bangladesh) project supports high realisations, but Bangladesh receivable buildup (~USD 900 million) remains a working capital risk, with gradual collections ongoing.
- Adani Power offers strong margins, improving ROCE, and trades at ~16.6× FY25 P/E.
Sagility India IPO Lockup – US$1.5bn Lockup Release; PE Promoter Will Have to Trim for Free-Float
- Sagility India (2058883D IN) (Sagility) raised around US$250m in its India IPO in Nov 2024. The lockup on its pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.
- Sagility is a pure-play healthcare focused solutions and services provider to Payers (U.S. health insurance companies), and Providers (primarily hospitals, physicians, and diagnostic and medical devices companies).
- In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics, possible placement and updates since our last note.
Nuvoco Vistas: Improving Performance and Strategic Expansion
- Nuvoco reported improved volumes, margins, and deleveraging in FY25, with continued focus on cost optimization and operational efficiency.
- The Vadraj Cement acquisition expands capacity to 31 MTPA, diversifying regional exposure and strengthening presence in Gujarat and Maharashtra – west region.
- Valuations are reasonable at ~16x FY27E earnings and ~Rs5,100/ton EV/ton, but upside depends on timely integration and ramp-up of new assets.
Adani Ports – Earnings Flash – FY 2024-25 Results – Lucror Analytics
- Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone (APSEZ) has released FY 2024-25 results that were largely stable y-o-y.
- Although cargo volume growth underperformed expectations, revenue rose 14% in line with projections, while the 16% EBITDA increase exceeded guidance.
- APSEZ generated slightly positive FCF, and net adjusted leverage was stable at an acceptable 2.8x.
Business Breakdown: Associated Alcohols- The Spirit of Bold Expansion
- AABL is entering premium segments with new products like gin, whisky, and tequila marking a shift from mass-market to value-added growth.
- This matters as it boosts margin potential and strengthens brand equity amid rising premium liquor demand.
- Our view shifts positively on AABL’s long-term strategy, despite near-term risks in regulation and corporate governance.
JSW Steel–BPSL Acquisition: Court Verdict, Strategic Importance, and Investment Implications
- Supreme Court reinstated strict NCLT terms on May 2, 2025, requiring JSW to fully comply or risk BPSL liquidation; NCLAT relaxations were overturned.
- BPSL contributes ~12% of JSW’s capacity and ~10% of EBITDA, with strong operational synergy potential, strategic location, and upcoming captive iron ore integration.
- While management is yet to formally decide, JSW is likely to comply; the ~6% correction offers a strong long-term opportunity as BPSL integration strengthens margins.
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