In today’s briefing:
- Clarifying the Key Points on Lee Jae-Myung’s Legal Risk and How It Could Affect the Trade
- Japan Strategy Weekly | Seven-Day Winning Streak
- #141 India Insight: China Reviews U.S. Tariff Offer, Oyo Delays IPO to 2026, JSW Faces Setback
- STAN – Window on HK Worsening, but Also Group Grade 12 Loans up 78% YoY
- WTR Small-Cap Spotlight Recap: Deep-Sea Mining Industry Coming of Age
- Thematic Report : Why Is India’s Banking Witnessing a Slowdown in Credit Growth?
Clarifying the Key Points on Lee Jae-Myung’s Legal Risk and How It Could Affect the Trade
- If the judicial overhang is overstated, it could distort the regime-change narrative and create new entry points for a deep value setup.
- The local tape is overpricing post-win disqualification risk, creating a fear premium that could be low-hanging alpha for contrarians willing to fade the noise.
- Monitor Lee’s poll numbers, as public sentiment impacts the judiciary. This offers a chance to front-run shifts and capitalize on the next rotation, potentially turning into a stealthy upside play.
Japan Strategy Weekly | Seven-Day Winning Streak
- Japanese markets surged, with the Nikkei rising 3.2% on a weaker yen, strong earnings, and tech sector gains, while BoJ held rates steady amid cautious forecasts.
- Japan’s economic data showed mixed trends, including falling industrial output, modest retail growth, and declining consumer confidence, raising concerns about domestic demand and labour market softness.
- Top stock performers included Sumi Pharma, Toyota Industries, and Nidec, driven by strong earnings, privatization speculation, and bold profit and restructuring plans that lifted investor sentiment.
#141 India Insight: China Reviews U.S. Tariff Offer, Oyo Delays IPO to 2026, JSW Faces Setback
- China is “evaluating” the U.S. tariff negotiation offer, demanding tariff removal and addressing practices, while the U.S. stays optimistic.
- Oyo (1698548D IN) delays its IPO to 2026, targeting a $7 billion valuation, amid SoftBank’s concerns and restructuring of a $2.2 billion loan.
- JSW Steel Ltd (JSTL IN)‘s resolution plan for Bhushan Power is rejected by the Supreme Court, directing liquidation, causing shares to drop 6%.
STAN – Window on HK Worsening, but Also Group Grade 12 Loans up 78% YoY
- Standard Chartered (STAN LN) results are most interesting, like with HSBC Holdings (5 HK) , for what they show on specific regions
- STAN reports in its HK region credit costs rising to USD89m in 1Q25 fromUSD39m YoY. This is now 41% of group credit costs from 22% YoY
- Grade 12 loans are of low quality, not yet NPL. These are up 78% YoY and similar rise QoQ. There is no clear geo detail on this high delta
WTR Small-Cap Spotlight Recap: Deep-Sea Mining Industry Coming of Age
- On the latest WTR Small-Cap Spotlight, we joined host Tim Gerdeman, Founder, Vice-Chairman, and Chief Marketing Officer at WTR, to discuss the recent developments in the deep-sea mining industry, including pros and cons of seabed mining, the importance of polymetallic nodules in meeting global critical metals needs and the regulatory environment, including the ISA’s inability to deliver on its mandate, and the US government’s steps to position the country as a leader in seabed mining.
Technological improvements and growing body of environmental data make DSM a viable pathway to critical metal independence.
While the roots of deep-sea mining go back to the 1970s and 1980s, with the US leading the way in technology of environmentally responsible mining of seabed mineral resources, significant work has been done over the past 50 years to optimize the collection technology and develop regulatory standards for safe exploitation of deep-sea mineral and metal deposits, dispelling much of the NGO-raised speculation with respect to the environmental impact of such activities.
Thematic Report : Why Is India’s Banking Witnessing a Slowdown in Credit Growth?
- India’s top private banks, HDFC, ICICI, and Axis, saw a significant slowdown in credit growth to 11% in Q4 FY25 from 15-20% of expectations, i.e down from 16.5% last year
- This moderation is due to softer loan demand, strategic balance sheet adjustments, and HDFC’s merger in it’s case.
- Despite this, asset quality remains strong, and the banks are focused on building a solid deposit base for future growth.
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