In today’s briefing:
- Gold Stocks in Trump’s New International Order
- #135 India Insights: Boeing Blocked by China, India-US Trade Pact Phase 1, IHCL’s 120% Rev Upside?
- Zinc’s Cycle Turns: Will Supply Outpace Demand?
- Japan Morning Connection: Trump Lauding ‘great Progress’ with Japan Trade Talks.
- Chartered Insights: Understanding India’s Current Valuation Amidst Market Correction
- US Tariff Impact on APAC Healthcare: Focus Country- INDIA
Gold Stocks in Trump’s New International Order
- Rising inflation historically benefits gold, offering superior real returns compared to stocks and bonds.
- Accounting quality is crucial when selecting gold miners, emphasizing transparency to mitigate manipulation risk.
- Investors can use Transparently Risk Engine to screen for gold miners with solid accounting quality.
#135 India Insights: Boeing Blocked by China, India-US Trade Pact Phase 1, IHCL’s 120% Rev Upside?
- China has suspended Boeing jet deliveries in retaliation to US tariffs, escalating the trade war and dealing a major blow to Boeing’s global business.
- India and the US have signed terms for the first phase of a trade pact, setting the stage for $500 billion in trade and deeper economic collaboration.
- Indian Hotels (IH IN) has expanded its portfolio to 380 hotels in FY25 with national growth, reinforcing its leadership and targeting 120% upside of Rs. 15,000 crore rev by 2030.
Zinc’s Cycle Turns: Will Supply Outpace Demand?
- Zinc market tone for 2025 is cautious, with most producers guiding flat to lower volumes as concentrate supply remains tight and benchmark TCs hit 50-year lows.
- Glencore, Teck, and South32 are dialing back output, while Korea Zinc is facing margin compression. Boliden is raising output via acquisitions and restarts, but still faces integration and cost risks.
- Hindustan Zinc stands apart—delivering growth, industry-best 53% EBITDA margins, and sub-$1,000/t cost targets, making it a margin fortress in a soft market.
Japan Morning Connection: Trump Lauding ‘great Progress’ with Japan Trade Talks.
- Tech and AI sell off sparked by further chip restrictions to China and poor print from ASML.
- Details of trade talks are set to have big implications for autos, energy, defense and agriculture.
- US officials order the suspension of Biden era wind project already under constriction, adding more pressure to renewables.
Chartered Insights: Understanding India’s Current Valuation Amidst Market Correction
- India’s P/E ratio corrected approx 16%, due to which forward PE has come down from 23.8 to 19.7, hitting a below average 1 yr forward PE.
- India’s earnings CAGR of 14.3% (CY24–26E) remains among the world’s highest, justifying premium valuations i.e. highest in the world.
- India now offers better risk-reward, with strong fundamentals, lower valuation multiples, and a tailwind from recovering consumption and sectoral revival in Q4.
US Tariff Impact on APAC Healthcare: Focus Country- INDIA
- The U.S. has started collecting baseline tariff of 10% from April 5. Reciprocal tariff has been temporarily halted but Indian Pharma companies remain vulnerable to possible tariff threat.
- During 9MFY25, the U.S. has been the top exporting destination for Indian pharmaceutical products, with 33% share in the exports.
- With negotiations on, India might opt for “zero for zero” tariff approach specifically in the case of Pharmaceutical and Medical devices.
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