In today’s briefing:
- Japan Strategy Weekly | 3 Reasons to Buy Japan in 2025
- India’s GDP Growth Moderates: What’s Next for FY25?
- Singapore Market Roundup (10-Jan-2025): OCBC downgrades UOB to ‘hold’.
- #85 India Insight: Adani Wilmar Oversubscribed, HDFC Hits ₹25,000 Cr AUM, GOI To Aid LPG Losses
- What Has Happened in the First Ten Days of 2025?
- Hardman & Co Healthcare Index: 2024 – Tough year for Life Sciences
- Payment Companies – Key Picks and Potential IPOs in Focus
- AUCTUS ON FRIDAY – 10/01/2025
- Surge in Chinese Overseas Tourism Set for Lunar New Year
Japan Strategy Weekly | 3 Reasons to Buy Japan in 2025
- A rather inauspicious start to the year and equities tumbling 2.5% in the first trading week
- Japan should be a top performing market in 2025 – it is undervalued, buoyed by reforms and has strong domestic fund flow
- Wage growth is key this year, setting stage for a stronger economy. Semiconductor stocks were the star performers this week!
India’s GDP Growth Moderates: What’s Next for FY25?
- India’s real GDP growth for FY25 is forecast at 6.4%, reflecting a significant slowdown from FY24’s 8.2%, driven by weaker investment and industrial performance.
- The slower growth trajectory highlights the challenges in maintaining momentum, with key sectors like manufacturing and mining underperforming, signaling potential long-term structural issues for India’s economy.
- This outlook suggests a cautious approach to India’s growth, indicating that short-term consumer-driven growth may not offset the long-term impact of subdued investment and external imbalances
Singapore Market Roundup (10-Jan-2025): OCBC downgrades UOB to ‘hold’.
- OCBC downgrades UOB to ‘hold’ due to new high share price, signaling potentially limited growth opportunities.
- CGSI reinitiates coverage on Food Empire, sets ambitious new target price at $1.43, indicating strong growth potential.
- UOB Kay Hian raises Digital Core REIT’s target price to 99 US cents and maintains ‘buy’ on SingPost, with positive outlook for both companies.
#85 India Insight: Adani Wilmar Oversubscribed, HDFC Hits ₹25,000 Cr AUM, GOI To Aid LPG Losses
- Adani Wilmar (AWLTD IN) OFS was oversubscribed by 111.19%, prompting the company to allocate an additional 1.96 lakh shares. This sale is part of Adani Enterprises (ADE IN) exit strategy.
- HDFC Securities has surpassed Rs.25,000 crore in mutual fund assets under management (AUM), driven by strong growth in SIPs, which contribute over 40% of its AUM, well above industry averages
- GOI is likely to provide Rs. 35,000 crore in subsidies to Indian Oil Corp (IOCL IN) , Bharat Petroleum Corp (BPCL IN) and Hindustan Petroleum (HPCL IN) to compensate for LPG sales losses.
What Has Happened in the First Ten Days of 2025?
- In the first ten days of 2025, Shanghai SSE Composite declined 5.5% and broke the key 3,200 support level. The main reason for the weakness is exchange rate;
- From November 5th when Trump won election, Renminbi exchange rate to US dollar has declined 3.3% and broke key support levels;
- The impact has started to shown in China’s residential property market. After a strong opening, new home sales quickly petered out. Whether rebound in the next few days is critical.
Hardman & Co Healthcare Index: 2024 – Tough year for Life Sciences
- The Hardman & Co Healthcare Index (HHI) has been running since 2009.
- Its main function is to highlight the attractions of life sciences investments over the long term.
- For the third year running, despite generally good returns in global markets, particularly in the US, performance in 2024 was poor, not helped by the capital-intensive nature of the sector.
Payment Companies – Key Picks and Potential IPOs in Focus
- We update Klarna’s pre-IPO valuation based on recent private share transactions and that of Stripe; Indian payments company Pine Labs is reputedly looking for an IPO valuation of USD6bn
- Our 2H24 recommended shares performance was suboptimal; only two of our four longs delivered gains, and our short’s share price was strong in the “risk on” investor climate
- We downgrade Shift4 to neutral, keeping PagSeguro as our core value pick along with European value play Nexi and US megacap Visa; we keep our sell rating on Affirm
AUCTUS ON FRIDAY – 10/01/2025
- AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Arrow Exploration (AXL LN/ CN)C; Target price of £0.80 per share: Flow rate in line with expectations at AB-1.
- Two more appraisal wells in January – The AB-1 (Alberta Llanos) exploration well is now on production at an oil rate of 658 bbl/d gross (329 bbl/d net) with 49% water cut from 62 feet of net pay in the Ubaque.
- The IP rate is in line with the expectations set out in the company’s September corporate presentation (321 bbl/d net).
Surge in Chinese Overseas Tourism Set for Lunar New Year
- Many Chinese travelers are opting to head to destinations in East and Southeast Asia for the upcoming Lunar New Year holiday, underscoring a gradual recovery in outbound travel.
- Searches for travel to Japan and South Korea during the holiday period from Jan. 28 to Feb.4 have more than doubled on Trip.com compared with last year’s holiday period, while interest in Southeast Asia has risen by 47%, according to data provided by the travel agency.
- Japan, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore, Vietnam and South Korea are the top outbound destinations for Chinese travelers during the holiday, according to hotel booking data provided by Trip.com and Qunar, another travel agency.
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