In today’s briefing:
- Ohayo Japan | A New Golden Age?
- Singapore Market Roundup (20-Jan-2025): Maybank: S-REIT distributions stable by 2H2025, grow FY2026+
- China Property: A Closer Look At The House Price Dynamics Across 70 Cities (Dec 2024 Data)
- Gold to Shine Bright on Solid Fundamentals, Seasonality & Sentiments
- Charted Insights: FII Flows Are Catalyst of Indian Equity Markets
- Japanese Consumers Update: Price Pressure Reducing Spending but Bonuses Up
- #89 India Insight: PepsiCo-Tata Launch, Nykaa Fuels M&As, India Targets $1T Exports
- [Blue Lotus Non-US Internet Weekly, 3/52]: RedNote’s Popularity Can Lift Other Boats Outside China
Ohayo Japan | A New Golden Age?
- Donald Trump was inaugurated as U.S. president on Monday, declaring “America’s decline is over.”
- Markets responded as Trump delayed tariffs on key trading partners, boosting global equities and weakening the dollar
- Mitsubishi Chemical Group has offered Bain Capital first-refusal rights to acquire its pharmaceutical subsidiary Mitsubishi Tanabe Pharma in a deal potentially exceeding ¥500bn
Singapore Market Roundup (20-Jan-2025): Maybank: S-REIT distributions stable by 2H2025, grow FY2026+
- Maybank forecasts stable S-REIT distributions in the second half of 2025 with growth expected in fiscal year 2026.
- CGSI remains optimistic on Singtel and KDC despite US artificial intelligence restrictions.
- UOBKH anticipates higher dividends from DBS and OCBC in the future. Maybank takes a ‘neutral’ stance on the Singapore healthcare sector.
China Property: A Closer Look At The House Price Dynamics Across 70 Cities (Dec 2024 Data)
- The average of the y/y growth rates of new home prices across 70 cities in December 2024 turned less negative -5.7% vs -6.1% for November, continuing the recent trend
- What lies beneath – a more complex picture across cities, with a continued gap between the new and secondary home prices
- In this note, we present the REF Data Update on NBS House Prices for December 2024 data released last Friday
Gold to Shine Bright on Solid Fundamentals, Seasonality & Sentiments
- CME Gold Futures delivered remarkable returns, climbing 13.5% in 2023 and soaring to a record 27% gain in 2024.
- Gold serves as a hedge against trust deficits, driven by geopolitical tensions, rising fiscal deficits, and fears of inflation and currency depreciation, making it a reliable refuge during economic uncertainty.
- The GLD ETF saw strong inflows in 2025, adding USD 579.22 million to its AUM, reaching USD 76.74 billion, despite some brief outflows post-election.
Charted Insights: FII Flows Are Catalyst of Indian Equity Markets
- Post-COVID, a popular narrative suggests that domestic institutional investors (DIIs) now wield greater influence in the Indian equity markets.
- While factual to an extent, this narrative misinterprets the broader reality.
- As a current account-deficit country, India relies heavily on foreign institutional investor (FII) inflows to ensure macroeconomic stability and sustain its risk appetite.
Japanese Consumers Update: Price Pressure Reducing Spending but Bonuses Up
- What is the current consumer environment for brands and retailers? Households are increasingly worried about inflation and have already begun to cut back on spending significantly.
- With further international turmoil, inflation caused by a weak Yen and high import costs, depressed sentiment may not be going away soon.
- One counter to this is bonuses which rose in December. Many companies say they need to pay more to keep staff from taking jobs elsewhere as the labour shortage worsens.
#89 India Insight: PepsiCo-Tata Launch, Nykaa Fuels M&As, India Targets $1T Exports
- Pepsico Inc (PEP US) and Tata Consumer Products (TATACONS IN) have partnered to launch a fusion snack, combining Kurkure with Ching’s Secret Schezwan Chutney.
- India aims for $1 trillion in exports by 2030, with $250 billion from the engineering sector, including automobiles and equipment. Infrastructure, energy transition, and innovation are key growth drivers.
- India’s beauty and personal care industry is heading into a consolidation phase, with M&As on the rise. Nykaa’s successful buyouts and challenges faced by D2C brands are fueling this trend.
[Blue Lotus Non-US Internet Weekly, 3/52]: RedNote’s Popularity Can Lift Other Boats Outside China
- This week, JD.com launched its social gift feature more tightly integrated with Weixin than Alibaba. We believe Tencent’s social gift feature will mainly serve as an advertising layer within e-commerce;
- Consumption data is so so and heavily reliant on subsidies. More service-subsidies are needed from the government;
- Outbound travel likely to cede to domestic during this CNY, benefiting local hotel chains like Atour.
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