Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Dow Slips 0.5% as Tariffs Weigh on Caterpillar and more

• The Dow fell 224 points, or 0.5%, bogged down by a 2% decline in Caterpillar shares
• SoftBank Group reported a 422 billion yen consolidated surplus for April-June, reversing from a 174 billion yen deficit in the same period last year
• Toyota Motor Corporation maintains its plan to produce 10 million units globally for the fiscal year ending March 2026

• Discussion of infrastructure capex as a percentage of US GDP by era, highlighting the current rate of 1.2%
• Comparison of current bubble dynamics to past bubbles, noting that the current bubble is not as excessive as previous ones
• Debate over whether the current investment cycle is a bubble or a strong investment cycle, with concerns about speculative investments and emotional factors leading to potential overvaluation in the future

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• CEO Tan heading for the door should be seen as positive longer term, with his replacement likely screened by the WH.
• Semi-Caps higher on the prospect for increased US fab capex, JP SPE was lower yesterday so expect rebound.
• Trump’s pick of Miran for temp Fed Governor addas another dovish voice to the committee as he pushes for lower rates

• China’s gaming industry surged in the first half of 2025, posting its fastest growth in five years, fueled by hit mobile titles, rising e-sports revenues and the continued boom in mini-games.
• According to an report released Thursday by the China Audio-Video and Digital Publishing Association at the ChinaJoy Digital Entertainment Conference in Shanghai, the domestic gaming market generated 168 billion yuan ($23 billion) in revenue from January to June, up 14.1% year-on-year.
• The country counted 679 million gamers, a modest 0.7% rise, marking the fourth straight year of user growth below 1%.