In today’s briefing:
- TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Sep 2025)
- Urban Company IPO – Profitability Just Before the IPO Appears to Be a Mirage
- Tokyo Electron — Navigating the Cycle, Leveraged to AI/HBM Growth
- Samsung Electronics (005930 KS): Tactical Outlook and Profit Targets
- How to Play the Chinese Domestic Economic Drivers
- 2330 TT – TSMC Advanced Node Secrets: Will N2 Become the Profit Engine of the Future?
- From AI Packaging to AI Edge: Listed Names to Watch at SEMICON Taiwan 2025 Starting Today
- Spotify’s War On Apple: How One App Is Undermining The iPhone’s Powerhouse
- Verizon Communications: Network Expansion and Deployment, AI-Powered CX & Other Key Developments!
- Cap-XX Ltd – Hybridan Monthly, 2 September 2025
TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Sep 2025)
- Quiddity’s “Who is Ready” series of insights aims to objectively identify names listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that are potential additions to the TOPIX Index in future.
- Our long-term TOPIX Inclusion pre-event candidate Core Concept Technologies Inc (4371 JP) has experienced a sharp price decline and has moved further away from the required thresholds for Section Transfers.
- Separately, Japan Business Systems (5036 JP) has announced a potential move to the Prime market which could result in a TOPIX inclusion in late-October 2025.
Urban Company IPO – Profitability Just Before the IPO Appears to Be a Mirage
- Urban Company (UCL IN) reported profits in FY25 after years of losses, but the improvement is largely due to temporary cost compression and one-off accounting adjustments.
- Revenue growth remains robust (INR11,445m in FY25 vs INR 6,366m in FY23), but profitability sustainability is questionable given competition and structural risks.
- Deferred tax credits (INR 2112m in FY25) inflated net profit to INR 2,398m despite thin operating profit (Adj. EBITDA only ₹121m, 1.06% margin).
Tokyo Electron — Navigating the Cycle, Leveraged to AI/HBM Growth
- Steady past performance, soft Q1: TEL doubled revenues and EPS since FY2021 with margins near 30%, but Q1 FY2026 showed a YoY dip as NAND/DRAM digestion hit.
- Expansion plans: ¥700 bn capex and ¥1.5 tn R&D by FY2029 will lift capacity ~+80%, aligned with AI logic and HBM-driven WFE growth.
- Valuation & growth: At ~18× forward P/E, TEL trades fair vs Lam/Applied but at a steep discount to ASML/KLA, offering upside if recovery unfolds.
Samsung Electronics (005930 KS): Tactical Outlook and Profit Targets
- Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) has been in a downtrend for 4 weeks, but it was only mildly oversold (60% prob. of reversal last Friday, at the Close).
- After 4 weeks down, this week the stock re-started its rally, touching 71200 on Tuesday at the Close.
- This insight will try to define the short-term profit targets for this rally (spoiler: they are not far, at least from the TIME MODEL perspective…).
How to Play the Chinese Domestic Economic Drivers
- China’s service sector is growing faster than manufacturing and construction, especially the business-to-business services, like IT Services, cloud services leasing and other business services.
- Among merchandize retail sectors, household and communication appliances, sports and recreational goods and gold and silver jewelry are growing the fastest. Some segments of food are enjoying healthy growth too.
- From a universe of 35 stocks in these sectors, we screen our favored 10, based on valuations more than justified by forecast earnings growth, high ROE and consensus Buy rating.
2330 TT – TSMC Advanced Node Secrets: Will N2 Become the Profit Engine of the Future?
- The Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, commonly referred to as TSMC, provided an earnings overview for the second quarter of 2025, demonstrating significant financial and operational insights.
- The revenue for the quarter showcased an 11.3% sequential increase in New Taiwan dollars, driven by strong demand for TSMC’s advanced 3-nanometer and 5-nanometer technologies.
- However, the positive revenue growth was somewhat countered by unfavorable exchange rate impacts.
From AI Packaging to AI Edge: Listed Names to Watch at SEMICON Taiwan 2025 Starting Today
- Defining themes: Packaging, edge AI, and silicon photonics dominate SEMICON Taiwan 2025
- Global heavyweights Applied Materials, Lam, and TEL anchor this year’s industry sponsorship
- Taiwan’s next tier — Zhen Ding, ASE, Advantech, ASPEED, Egis — showcase critical AI enablers beyond TSMC
Spotify’s War On Apple: How One App Is Undermining The iPhone’s Powerhouse
- Spotify’s decade-long battle with Apple over App Store fees has escalated into a defining global fight over mobile market power, and it’s showing signs of denting Apple’s dominance.
- The most recent development came from Spotify’s Q2 2025 earnings call, where CEO Daniel Ek directly credited the U.S. legal win against Apple in the Epic v. Apple case for improving Spotify’s subscription conversion rates.
- For years, Apple restricted developers from directing users to alternative payment options.
Verizon Communications: Network Expansion and Deployment, AI-Powered CX & Other Key Developments!
- Verizon’s second quarter 2025 financial results showcased a blend of robust performance and strategic initiatives that signal both positive momentum and areas requiring attention.
- In terms of financial outcomes, Verizon reported wireless service revenue growth of 2.2% year-over-year, reaching $20.9 billion, and achieved an adjusted EBITDA of $12.8 billion, illustrating strong profitability with a quarterly free cash flow figure of $5.2 billion.
- This substantial cash flow facilitated a revised upward guidance for the full year’s adjusted EBITDA, adjusted EPS, and free cash flow projections.
Cap-XX Ltd – Hybridan Monthly, 2 September 2025
- Hybridan Monthly, 2 September 2025 Market Comment View from the Broker’s Desk Ardent readers of our almost daily “Small Cap Feast” will be familiar with our coverage of those companies looking to IPO on the LSE or AQSE.
- As it stands today, we have just two contenders who have thrown their cap in the ring: B HODL, the bitcoin operator, announced plans to IPO onto AQSE; and Vulcan Two Group, the acquirer of companies in the ePharmacy market, announced plans to IPO onto AIM;.
- There is lots of talk in the market around what is the catalyst needed to change the drought we are currently experiencing in UK IPOs.
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