In today’s briefing:
- Biden Era Tire Emission Rule In Bin; USTMA Welcomes It
- [Zeekr Group (ZK US, BUY, TP US$35) TP Change]: Buy in to Geely Doesn’t Help Either’s Competency
- Perimeter: Private-Equity GP Economics in Public Markets
- Greenidge Generation Holdings, Inc: 1Q25 Earnings Highlight Debt and Revenue Progress
- GES: Snapping the Store: Turn Gaining Momentum; Reiterate Buy, $23 PT
- DNOW, Inc: Strategy Execution Points to Solid Free Cash Flow Outlook
- AZTR: ATR-04 Trial to Dose 1st Patient Mid-2025
- Soluna Holdings, Inc: 1Q25 Earnings Highlight Cash Position and Expectations for Growth
- Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
- Vaalco Energy (NYSE: EGY): The Road to 50 Mboe/D by 2030
Biden Era Tire Emission Rule In Bin; USTMA Welcomes It
- EPA regulation targeted previously unregulated emissions
- USTMA calls it regulatory overreach that shoots up costs
- Move can bolster domestic manufacturing, competitiveness
[Zeekr Group (ZK US, BUY, TP US$35) TP Change]: Buy in to Geely Doesn’t Help Either’s Competency
- The combined Zeekr (ZK)/Lynk reported C1Q25 top line 11% below our estimates, due to sharper than expected price erosions,
- Despite ASP missing our estimates by 6.3% for ZK and 16% for Lynk, ZK managed to beat our gross margin estimate by 3.7ppt and consensus by 4.0ppt,
- With Geely and related persons controlling 78% of ZK and Geely’s H-share stock rising in value, we see the chance for the go-private deal to succeed as high.
Perimeter: Private-Equity GP Economics in Public Markets
- It wouldn’t shock me if the word “SPAC” itself has a negative connotation in your mind, but of course, it doesn’t inherently imply anything nefarious.
- A SPAC or “Special Purpose Acquisition Company” is just a publicly traded shell corporation that raises capital through an IPO to merge with or acquire a private business, enabling that target to become publicly listed without undergoing its own traditional IPO.
- EverArc Holdings, an acquisition company listed in London in December 2019, raised ~$340 million and staffed its board with some heavy hitters: TransDigm co-founder Nick Howley, “Outsiders” author-investor Will Thorndike, and Berkshire alumna Tracy Britt Cool, among others .
Greenidge Generation Holdings, Inc: 1Q25 Earnings Highlight Debt and Revenue Progress
- Greenidge announced a solid 1Q25, with revenue of $19.2 million, roughly flat Y/Y, and debt reduction of $12 million from the original $72 million to $60 million.
- The company had $13.3 million in cash and Bitcoin at the end of the quarter.
- CEO Jordan Kovler said, “This past quarter, our team’s disciplined execution and prudent financial management have significantly advanced the turnaround of our business and operations.
GES: Snapping the Store: Turn Gaining Momentum; Reiterate Buy, $23 PT
- We are reiterating our Buy rating, projections and $23 price target for Guess?
- after visiting stores in Metropolitan New York City and Long Island.
- As we have seen in the previous two months, we believe Guess?
DNOW, Inc: Strategy Execution Points to Solid Free Cash Flow Outlook
- DNOW is well-positioned to execute its strategy of strategically investing in the margin accretive areas of its business and returning cash to shareholders through its repurchase authorization.
- Two 2024 acquisitions, Whitco Supply and Trojan Rentals, expanded the company’s exposure in the midstream and water management sectors.
- In April 2025, DNOW acquired Singapore-based Natron International Pte. Ltd., expanding its electrical supply capabilities under the existing MacLean International brand to serve traditional and renewable energy, infrastructure, and other commercial and industrial end markets in the Asia-Pacific region.
AZTR: ATR-04 Trial to Dose 1st Patient Mid-2025
- Azitra is developing genetically engineered bacteria for therapeutic use in dermatology.
- The company possesses a microbial library of 1,500 unique bacterial strains that are candidates for a variety of indications.
- Azitra’s lead candidate is ATR-12 for the rare disease Netherton syndrome (NS).
Soluna Holdings, Inc: 1Q25 Earnings Highlight Cash Position and Expectations for Growth
- Soluna recently announced its 1Q25 earnings an business update, with revenue of $5.9 million, 220 MW of new project development (698 MW total), and a solid cash position.
- The company has also simplified its capital structure by fully converting its notes last year, restructuring its Preferred B equity, paying off it Navitas loan, and securing $5 million in non-dilutive financing from Galaxy Digital.
- CEO John Belizaire said, “Our outlook shines brighter with expanding project development at Projects Rosa, Ellen, and Hedy.
Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
- US treasuries ended mixed yesterday, with the curve steepening materially amid concerns over the US budget deficit and President Donald Trump’s impending tax-cut bill.
- The yield on the 2Y UST fell 1 bp to 3.97%, while the yield on the 10Y UST rose 4 bps to 4.49%.
- US equities retreated after a six-day rally, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both declining 0.4% to 5,940 and 19,143, respectively.
Vaalco Energy (NYSE: EGY): The Road to 50 Mboe/D by 2030
- During the capital markets day last week, Vaalco outlined a production growth profile reaching >45 mboe/d in 2029 and 50 mboe/d in 2030 – surpassing the peak production of ~40 mboe/d that we had anticipated.
- Production is expected to reach ~30 mboe/d by mid-2026 , driven by the 2025/2026 drilling program in Gabon and the restart of production at Baobab in Côte d’Ivoire (CI).
- The next major increase is forecasted for 3Q28, with the start-up of Venus in EG, adding +20 mbbl/d gross production.
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