In this briefing:
- Last Week in GER Research: Softbank, TPG Telecom, Cstone Pharma, Ebang and Facebook
- Maoyan Entertainment (猫眼娱乐) IPO: Lackluster Demand but CNY Blockbusters Could Be a Catalyst
- SMFG (8316 JP): On Target But Drifting Off Radar
- Quick Take: Asian LNG Spot Prices Fall Below the UK NBP Gas Price
- ECM Weekly (2 February 2019) – Maoyan, China Tower, Dexin, Chalet Hotels, Bharat Hotels, Wingarc1st
1. Last Week in GER Research: Softbank, TPG Telecom, Cstone Pharma, Ebang and Facebook
In this version of the GER weekly research wrap, we dig into the debt tender for Softbank Group (9984 JP) and assess the merger between TPG Telecom Ltd (TPM AU) and VHA. On the IPO front, we initiate on CStone Pharma (CSTONE HK) while we update on Ebang (EBANG HK) . Finally, we dig into the beat at Facebook Inc A (FB US) and assess whether there are further legs for the investment case. We also provide a list of upcoming catalysts for upcoming event-driven ideas.
More details can be found below.
Best of luck for the new week – Rickin, Venkat and Arun
2. Maoyan Entertainment (猫眼娱乐) IPO: Lackluster Demand but CNY Blockbusters Could Be a Catalyst
Maoyan Entertainment was priced at HKD 14.8/share and will start trading today. We summarize the latest information with updates on our valuation in this short note, prior to the trading debut. Our recent studies on the movies slotted to launch during the Chinese New Year period suggest that the box office during the CNY period could be a positive catalyst to Maoyan, which lists right before the CNY.
Our previous coverage on Maoyan Entertainment
3. SMFG (8316 JP): On Target But Drifting Off Radar
Consolidated results for the nine months to end-December 2018, announced by SMFG (8306 JP) on 31 January 2019, represented 91% of management’s full-year target of ¥700 billion for consolidated net profits. Nevertheless, 3Q results (October-December 2018) were well down year-on-year, with rising funding costs and higher credit costs offsetting much of the positives from the earlier deconsolidation of its two retail banking subsidiaries. Full-year guidance remains unchanged. SMFG is now poised to exceed its ¥700 billion FY3/2019 consolidated net profit target, although probably not by much.
The megabanks are always a ‘crowded trade’ for foreign investors when it comes to exposure to the Japanese banking sector: the choice usually coming down to either MUFG or SMFG. Mizuho, which significantly outperformed both MUFG and SMFG throughout CY2018, is nominally the cheapest of the three megabanks on standard valuation methods; however, the difference between all three at present is marginal. We expect that all three megabank groups will continue to see further downward pressure on domestic margins, while their overseas operations (especially in Asia) remain vulnerable to any further increases in US$ interest rates. In the absence of any significant catalysts to prompt foreign investors to actively buy the shares, we expect all three megabanks to disappoint in terms of share price performance in CY2019.
4. Quick Take: Asian LNG Spot Prices Fall Below the UK NBP Gas Price
Asian LNG spot prices have dropped for a short time below the UK NBP gas price, reversing the established trend that sees Asian LNG offering a premium to the European LNG price benchmarks. This note takes a look at the latest trends in the LNG markets and the renewed plans unveiled by Qatar to challenge its competitors, in particular, those from the US.
5. ECM Weekly (2 February 2019) – Maoyan, China Tower, Dexin, Chalet Hotels, Bharat Hotels, Wingarc1st
Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that have been covered by Smartkarma Insight Providers recently, along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
Happy Lunar New Year to everyone from Aequitas Research!
It has been a fairly quiet week leading up to Chinese New Year but it is not stopping Maoyan Entertainment (1896 HK) from listing on Monday. The IPO was priced at the bottom end of its offering range. The last we checked, it traded up 3% in the grey market on Friday. Ke Yan, CFA, FRM will follow up with a short note of his thoughts on post-IPO trading dynamics and bookbuild subscription levels.
Other updates on IPO in Hong Kong include Sinochem Energy allowing its IPO application to lapse while Koolearn (1373356D HK) and Shangde Qizhi Education re-filed for IPO. Edvantage, another new education IPO (and likely to be borderline US$100m deal size) filed for Hong Kong listing this week as well.
China Tower (788 HK)‘s lock-up will be expiring on the 8th of February and Ke Yan, CFA, FRM mentioned in his insight that any potential placement will be a good opportunity to accumulate the stock. Placements from cornerstone investors will likely be a liquidity event.
In India, Chalet Hotels Limited (CHALET IN) closed its bookbuild with a tepid overall demand of 1.57x. The silver lining for the IPO is that the institutional tranche saw a healthy 4.6x demand, similar to that of Lemon Tree Hotels (LEMONTRE IN) in terms of weak overall but strong institutional demand, which ended up performing well in its IPO.
Other upcoming India IPOs include Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders Ltd (9155507Z IN) and Embassy REIT which were said to be seeking listing towards the end of February. Sterling and Wilson is also looking to file its INR50bn IPO with the Sebi soon.
In Japan, Wingarc1st announced its IPO bookbuild to start on the 25th of February and will be listing in March. It is estimated to be raising about US$380m.
Accuracy Rate:
Our overall accuracy rate is 72% for IPOs and 63.8% for Placements
(Performance measurement criteria is explained at the end of the note)
New IPO filings
- Edvantage Group (Hong Kong, ~US$100m)
- Koolearn (Hong Kong, re-filed)
- Shangde Qizhi Education Group (Hong Kong, re-filed)
Below is a snippet of our IPO tool showing upcoming events for the next week. The IPO tool is designed to provide readers with timely information on all IPO related events (Book open/closing, listing, initiation, lock-up expiry, etc) for all the deals that we have worked on. You can access the tool here or through the tools menu.
News on Upcoming IPOs
- China’s Sinochem Energy lets Hong Kong IPO application lapse
- India’s Cleartrip eyes IPO as it plans Gulf expansion
- Blackstone set to IPO inaugural $1 billion Reit before March
- Bursa Malaysia’s outgoing CEO says IPO pipeline for 2019 looks strong
- China to Scrap Price, Debut Gain Limits to Entice Tech IPOs
Smartkarma Community’s this week Analysis on Upcoming IPO
- Ebang IPO Preview: Balance Sheet Indicators Point to a Significant Slowdown
- Chalet Hotels IPO Review – Backed up into a Corner
- CStone Pharma IPO Preview: Mixed Prospects of Late-Stage Clinical Drug Candidates
- IPO Radar: KTB Securities, the Only Korean Broker in Thailand
- Shanghai Henlius (复宏汉霖) IPO: Not an Impressive Biosimilar Portfolio
- Dreamtech: Trying for an IPO Again at a Lower Price
- Bharat Hotels Pre-IPO – Catching up with Peers
- China Tower Corp: Trading Idea Before Lock-Up Expiry
- Dexin China (德信中国) Pre-IPO – Related Party Transactions and Partial Asset Listing
List of pre-IPO Coverage on Smartkarma
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