In today’s briefing:
- Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) Dec Rebalance: 5 Adds and US$8.8bn Trade; Zijin Gold Added
- FXI Rebalance: 3 Changes as H/A Premium Trades Back in Focus
- China A50 ETF Rebalance: Two Sets of Changes
- TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Dividend Index Rebalance: US$7bn Trade over the Next Week
- An Early Look at Potential Additions and Deletions to KOSPI200 in June 2026
- Retail Range-Trading Hynix Is Driving Short-Term Inflection in Square NAV Trade
- ECB: Wishfully Rolling Disinflation
- Nidec (6594): Fake Resignations Don’t Count
- InSilico Medicine (英矽智能) IPO: AI Assets as Upside
- HEW: Dovish Data Dumps
Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) Dec Rebalance: 5 Adds and US$8.8bn Trade; Zijin Gold Added
- There are 5 additions for the VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) in December. Zijin Gold (2259 HK) is a surprise add (as are some of the others).
- Estimated one-way turnover is 15.2% and that leads to a round-trip trade of US$8.8bn. There are many stocks with multiple days of ADV to trade from passive trackers.
- The MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index has just passed its earlier highs, but a lot of the adds have broken out and are trading much higher than their prior highs.
FXI Rebalance: 3 Changes as H/A Premium Trades Back in Focus
- As forecast, there will be 3 constituent changes for the iShares China Large-Cap (FXI US) at the close of trading on 19 December.
- Two of the inclusions will also have inflows from the FGlobal Index at the same time, while the third is an HSCEI INDEX add at the close tomorrow.
- The HA premiums for CATL (3750 HK) and Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals (1276 HK) dropped prior to lock-up expiry and there could be a short-term premium expansion closer to index/ETF inclusion.
China A50 ETF Rebalance: Two Sets of Changes
- CMOC (603993 CH) and Sungrow Power Supply (300274 CH) will replace S.F. Holding (002352 CH) and Bank of Jiangsu (600919 CH) in the ETFs at the close on 19 December.
- Passive trackers will need to trade between 0.1-0.5 days of ADV in the constituent changes.
- The adds have outperformed the deletes by a big margin over the last 6 months. After a period of underperformance in November, the adds have started moving higher again.
TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Dividend Index Rebalance: US$7bn Trade over the Next Week
- There are 8 adds and 8 deletes for the TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Dividend Index in December. The TIP Taiwan Select High Dividend ETF has an AUM of US$13bn.
- The ETF has started trading the stocks and is expected to continue trading for the next 7 trading days.
- There are a few surprises and those stocks could outperform peers over the rest of the trading period.
An Early Look at Potential Additions and Deletions to KOSPI200 in June 2026
- In this insight, we provide an early look at the potential additions and deletions to KOSPI200 rebalance in June 2026.
- We provide 8 potential deletion candidates including Miwon Specialty Chemical (268280 KS), SeAH Steel Holdings (003030 KS), Asia Holdings (002030 KS), and Miwon Commercial (002840 KS).
- Eight potential additions in KOSPI200 in June 2026 are up on average 41.7% on average in the past six months, outperforming KOSPI in the same period.
Retail Range-Trading Hynix Is Driving Short-Term Inflection in Square NAV Trade
- Structurally, Square’s NAV trade still works. The Hynix stake alone implies a 60%+ discount, well above local norms, with policy tailwinds supporting long-term compression.
- Near term, Square’s NAV is a derivative of retail Hynix flows. Today was the first real unwind since the 10th, with retail net selling roughly 5x yesterday’s retail net-sell.
- Retail sold both, but Hynix again dominated the tape. Retail is range-trading ₩500ks, and that behavior is the key driver of Square’s short-term NAV inflection.
ECB: Wishfully Rolling Disinflation
- Stronger wage and service price inflation have shrunk the Q1 target undershoot to only 0.1pp, removing the space that doves hoped might free the ECB to cut again.
- Spending over half the year on hold and in a “good place” creates an inertia that will be hard to break towards another cut. We still see the ECB’s easing cycle as over.
- Rolling the disinflationary trend back a year helps soften hawkish pressures, but losing this amid ongoing strength seems more likely to push the ECB into a hawkish direction.
Nidec (6594): Fake Resignations Don’t Count
- Shigenobu Nagamori resigned as director but remains honorary chairman, a move we see as insufficient to address Nidec’s recent accounting controversy.
- Meaningful recovery requires both founders’ full retirement, a restructured, more independent board, and a chief risk officer to oversee professional auditing and reforms.
- The company also needs to improve transparency on assets, overhaul incentives toward return on investment, and develop a realistic mid-term plan to improve return on capital.
InSilico Medicine (英矽智能) IPO: AI Assets as Upside
- InSilico Medicine, an AI-driven drug discovery and development, launched its IPO to raise at least USD 293 million via a Hong Kong listing.
- In this note, we look at the deal terms and provide a valuation for the company.
- We think the valuation is anchored by its innovative assets while the AI asset value provides upside.
HEW: Dovish Data Dumps
- Inflation data broadly disappointed expectations over the past week. The labour market news was more mixed, but higher UK and US unemployment rates raise eyebrows.
- Policymakers behaved themselves, with no surprises and wide dispersion, including a BOJ hike, while the BoE delivered the finely balanced hawkish cut we expected.
- The release calendar adopts a holiday stance for the next few weeks, with only UK and US Q3 GDP data out before Christmas. This publication will be back on 9 January.
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