Financials

• DayOne, a hyperscale data center developer and operator, has filed its registration statement with the SEC for a Nasdaq listing. MS, JPM, BOA, Citi and BNP Paribas are the underwriters.
• We look at the company’s core Singapore/Malaysia/Indonesia markets of Singapore, Johor and Batam, and its newer markets in Asia and Europe.
• We then look at the company’s financial profile, loss-making status, pre-IPO valuation and investor backing.

• The ES50 Index is one of the most highly-tracked European indices and the annual index review takes place in September every year.
• The results of the market consultation were announced on 2nd October 2026, and three methodology changes will be phased in between September 2027 and September 2029.
• There could be 3 ADDs and 3 DELs to the index if the supersector coverage removal were applied to the latest rankings.

• Eroding wealth: Multi-generational property wealth erasure is structurally fracturing China’s aspirational luxury base, crippling tenant sales across regional mall portfolios.
• Leverage trap: Heavy reliance on turnover-based leases creates a toxic operational leverage trap, accelerating landlord margin compression as luxury brands halt store expansions.
• Dividend unsustainability: With dividend payout ratios exceeding 100% of leasing free cash flow amid heavy capital commitments, a drastic dividend cut is mathematically unavoidable.

• Dominant Hyperscale Footprint in High-Growth Corridors: DayOne has rapidly established itself as a premier independent hyperscale data center operator, commanding an estimated 33% market share by bookings across the high-demand SIJORI (Singapore-Johor-Riau) digital corridor. With over 2.3 GW in contracted customer bookings and a total capacity pipeline exceeding 4.6 GW across Asia-Pacific and Europe, the company is strategically positioned to capture structural cloud and AI training/inference infrastructure demand.
• Hypergrowth Revenue Trajectory Paired with High Capital Intensity: Revenue surged 171.9% YoY in FY2025 to $484.3 million and reached $512.0 million in 1H2026 (more than full-year FY2025 revenue). However, rapid operational scaling and significant pre-IPO equity-based compensation resulted in a net loss of $81.9 million in 1H2026, underscoring heavy front-loaded expansion costs.
• Client Concentration vs. Elite Sovereign & Institutional Sponsorship: While DayOne benefits from blue-chip institutional backing—including Coatue, Hillhouse, and the Indonesia Investment Authority (INA)—client concentration is high, with its anchor tenant (a leading global short-form video platform) contributing 69.2% of 1H2026 revenue. The planned Nasdaq listing under ticker DODC provides essential liquidity to fund ongoing greenfield buildouts in Tier-1 Asian and European hubs.

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• Congress averted the October 1 shutdown with a bipartisan stopgap bill. Jobs data came in weak. Citigroup lifted its 12-month Bitcoin target by 37.8%.
• Uptober has begun, and BTC absorbed all three catalysts, closing the week near $86,490 (CoinGecko, Close, Oct 4).
• ETH broke out of its multi-week $2,600 range on Thursday before settling back. The institutional story kept building while macro visibility deteriorated.

• The RBA raised its cash rate target to 4.60% on 29 September, its fourth 25bp increase this year.
• Australian banks underperformed the broader market over 20 trading days following both the March and May hikes.
• Following the latest hike, the Big Four have already underperformed the market, consistent with the pattern following the two preceding increases.

• Saltire Capital is a permanent capital vehicle that acquires controlling stakes in profitable businesses with high barriers to entry, predictable cashflows, and strong competitive advantages.
• SLT owns two businesses: 1) MDI, a premium cinema-screen manufacturing company, and 2) SanStone, a heavy equipment dealer in Atlantic Canada.
• Future acquisitions will focus on the SanStone segment.

Key points (machine generated)

• MUGEN ESTATE Co., Ltd. reported a significant decline in net sales and profits in the first half of FY12/26, with net sales down 18.8% year-on-year.
• The company has revised its full-year forecasts downward, expecting a 9.8% decrease in net sales and a 22.3% drop in operating income.
• To address these challenges, MUGEN ESTATE is strengthening partnerships with regional financial institutions and targeting domestic high-net-worth individuals while maintaining stable dividends.

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Key points (machine generated)

• MUGEN ESTATE Co., Ltd. specializes in buying and reselling pre-owned investment and residential properties.
• The company is implementing recovery measures after a decline in net sales and profits in the first half of FY12/26, targeting an operating income of ¥8.58 billion.
• As a pioneer in the real estate sector, MUGEN ESTATE operates mainly in the Tokyo metropolitan area with 15 offices and 523 employees.

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• PRC-Focused financial leasing play Haitong Unitrust International Financial Leasing (1905 HK)  (HUIFL) is suspended pursuant to Hong Kong Code on Takeovers and Mergers. 
• Expect a privatisation Offer from Guotai Haitong Securities (2611 HK), currently holding an 85% stake. Guotai Haitong is presently in the midst of taking Guotai Junan International (1788 HK) private.
• As HUIFL is PRC-incorporated, this Offer may be structured as a Merger by Absorption, involving a Scheme-like vote for independent H-shareholders. There may, or may not be, a tendering condition.

• Haitong Unitrust International Financial Leasing (1905 HK) halted trading on 5 October pending a takeover announcement. Its parent, Guotai Haitong Securities, owns 85% and will likely take it private.
• A merger by absorption looks low-risk because no holder has a blocking stake and opposition at the AGM was negligible. A voluntary/delisting offer would face a tougher 90% acceptance hurdle.
• My valuation methods point to an offer of HK$1.29–1.65 per share, a 7.5%–37.5% premium to the HK$1.20 close. 

• Debt Wall Squeeze: Rising rates and maturing low-cost debt will crush distributable income as SGD 3.28 bn in leverage and expensive perpetual securities face imminent yield resets.
• Terminal Value Erosion: Core legacy assets like Senoko Waste-to-Energy and SingSpring Desalination face looming contractual run-offs, fundamentally destroying the portfolio’s base cash-generation capacity.
• Chronic Dilution Cycle: Management’s reliance on heavily discounted equity placements to fund replacement acquisitions has systematically destroyed Unitholder value, shrinking net asset value per unit by 40%.

• Intesa has raised its offer to €11.375/share, only 0.9% above MPS, while making approval of the BAMI/BGN plan incompatible with its bid.
• Delfin’s 17.6% Backing strengthens Intesa ahead of the 29 October vote, but Lovaglio still offers shareholders exposure to further consolidation upside.
• Our probability-weighted value is €11.64/share, 3.2% above spot; upside beyond Intesa comes from a further sweetener or the MPS-led strategy.

• Flavio Bolsonaro’s win in the first round of the Presidential election in Brazil greatly increases the chance of a Bolsonaro win in the second round
• Flavio Bolsonaro is perceived to be more business and market-friendly than the left-wing incumbent Lula, and in the banks space we focus on the majority federal government-owned Banco do Brasil
• We upgrade deep-value Banco do Brasil to a buy, as a Bolsonaro win would imply less federal government interference in the bank’s operations, and potential for improved returns going forward

• In 9M26, 80 SGX primary-listed companies repurchased S$2.38 billion of shares, surpassing 2025’s S$2.23 billion total.
• Singtel and Keppel led 9M26 buybacks with S$1.05 billion and S$365 million, representing 59% of total consideration.
• Seatrium launched a new S$200 million buyback programme after fully utilising a previous S$100 million programme.

• Premier Global Investment Banking Franchise: Goldman Sachs maintains undisputed global leadership across M&A advisory, equity and debt underwriting, and institutional market making, bolstered by an ongoing strategic pivot toward higher-margin, capital-light Asset & Wealth Management (AWM).
• Accelerating Profitability and Margin Expansion: Operating performance has inflected sharply, with net margins expanding from 7.84% in FY23 to 13.61% in FY25 and reaching 17.25% in 2Q26, driven by a cyclical rebound in capital markets deal flow, robust trading velocity, and disciplined non-compensation expense control.
• Substantial Capital Generation and Shareholder Return: Bolstered by a 19.52% 3-year EPS CAGR, the group continues to deliver superior shareholder distributions, highlighted by an annualized dividend run-rate of $18.00 per share (2.24% yield) alongside consistent share repurchase programs.

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• Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (388 HK) has corrected 11% in the last few weeks, but its most significant last peak was in August 2025. 
• The main hypothesis of this insight is that the stock may offer a short-term asymmetric LONG opportunity, to profit from a counter rally.
• Analysis conducted with out quantitative model show that last week’s correction was shallow so the stock could go lower, but it should be bottoming soon. Broader consensus: strong buy.

• Meme coin ETF wrappers face structural demand constraints: The core audience for meme coins is on-chain, leverage-seeking retail, whereas traditional spot ETF wrappers appeal only to a narrow sliver of wealth-managed or retirement capital.
• The niche digital asset ETF market is consolidating rapidly around dominant players: As evidenced by the liquidation of the Bitwise Dogecoin ETF (BWOW) on October 14, 2026, smaller spot products struggle to build organic seed capital without pre-existing trust conversions, leaving Grayscale’s GDOG with an 81% market share.
• Standalone unit economics are highly unfavorable for minor altcoin sponsors: At fee levels of 0.34% to 0.35%, an ETF requires over $50 million in AUM to break even against custodial, Cboe listing, legal, and operational overhead, forcing sponsors to subsidize these vehicles using broader multi-asset suites.

• Third time’s a charm as Ingenia Communities (INA AU) extends due diligence to Warburg Pincus on a non-exclusive basis. 
• The DD access arrives after Warburg initially pitched a A$4.75/share NBIO on the 7th September (rejected); then A$5.05/share on the 21st September (also rejected), then A$5.25/share on the 28th September.
• As with the two previous bids, Warburg’s last proposal is conditional on Ingenia terminating the Peet Ltd (PPC AU) Scheme: Peet Ltd (PPC AU): Ingenia Communities (INA AU)’s Clean Scheme.

• Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.
• Highlights: In India, currently three pair trade opportunities persist across two sectors.
• Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.

• The Canary PEPE ETF is an exchange-traded product issuing shares of beneficial interest, seeking exposure to PEPE Coin’s price, less expenses and liabilities.
• PEPE’s trading price increased 102,100% from April 2023 to December 2024, then declined 86.9% by August 2026 to approximately $0.000003699.
• The ETF offers PEPE access via brokerage accounts and uses no derivatives, though PEPE is a memecoin lacking blockchain utility and subject to extreme volatility.

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• LIC Housing Finance (“LICHF”) reported decent disbursement growth of 14.5% YoY in Q1FY27. Overall AUM growth was tepid at 4% YoY but this is slated to pick up in FY27.
• Asset quality has been consistently improving with Stage 3 assets at 2.14% vs 2.16% QoQ and Stage 2 assets at 2.60% vs 2.78% QoQ.
• LICHF continues to trade at cheap valuation at below 5x P/E; thus an investment in LICHF at current valuation has potential to triple.

• The structural burden of Laris’s 108.7% book value dilution creates an almost insurmountable hurdle for attracting high-quality targets and securing PIPE financing. Sophisticated deep-tech targets see this negative post-offering net tangible book value as a structural red flag, forcing Laris to target either desperate or fundamentally over-valued businesses.
• Cross-border deep-tech pipelines in Europe and ANZ represent a dual-reality: while McKinsey’s 2026 Quantum Technology Monitor indicates that 43% of active quantum testers are in Europe, local funding gaps persist, yet these targets are increasingly wary of the US SPAC route due to complex CFIUS/FDI controls on sensitive dual-use intellectual property.
• The competitive edge Laris claims over classic Venture Capital and Private Equity is largely illusory in the current 2026 market. High-quality targets prefer structured debt, corporate venture capital, or sovereign wealth funds over a SPAC structure that forces immediate, quarterly public-market disclosure of pre-revenue deep-tech milestones.

• TCI Industries Limited (TCIN IN) represents a specialized, asset-rich small-cap equity vehicle whose fundamental investment thesis centers on the monetization and development optionality of its prime land holding in Colaba, South Mumbai, supported by secondary investment portfolio activities.
• The company delivered an operational turnaround in FY2026 with total revenue expanding to INR 50.61M (3-year CAGR of 38.12%) and net income returning to positive territory at INR 4.87M (9.62% net margin), recovering from substantial losses in FY2024 (-INR 10.39M) and FY2025 (-INR 22.40M).
• Despite positive accounting margins in FY2026, Free Cash Flow to Equity (FCFE) remains negative at -INR 9.27M alongside zero dividend distributions (Smartkarma Dividend Score of 1/5), reflecting ongoing capital absorption, regulatory holding costs, and long-gestation asset realization cycles.

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• In NWD (17 HK): Edging Towards A Bailout, I mentioned New World Development (17 HK) was reportedly in negotiations with the Hong Kong Airport Authority on its 11 Skies project.
• In its FY26 results, ahead of the national holiday, NWD posted an HK$18.3bn writedown as part of an early termination agreement of the project with the AAHK.
• NWD was expected to pay rent on 11 Skies of at least HK$1.8bn/annum from 2028 through to 2066; therefore, there is some consolation here from the termination.

• Vivendi’s restated discount widened to 55.4%, while GBL moved to 27.6%; the former offers greater upside, but GBL retains the cleaner balance sheet and catalyst profile.
• Porsche SE’s discount held at 30.3%, but the final rejection of €5.4bn of investor claims removes a major legal tail risk without changing our NAV.
• Investor and Industrivärden remain around or above NAV, while Rio’s 23.1% Australian premium remains interesting mainly when the DLC spread moves towards historical extremes.

• The Rebranding of MBAV to Velos Acquisition I Corp (VLOS) after the ReserveOne collapse is a high-stakes sponsor gamble. Rather than liquidating in June 2026 after terminating its $1 billion digital asset merger, the sponsor (CC Capital’s MI7 affiliate) chose to rebrand, extend the deadline to August 2, 2027, and convert all 7,187,500 Class B founder shares to Class A shares to eliminate the traditional promote overhang.
• Redemptions have severely depleted the trust, shifting the transaction math entirely toward structured PIPEs. Following the July 2026 extraordinary general meeting, massive redemptions of approximately $110.2 million shrunk the trust from its original $287.5 million post-IPO high to exactly $177,286,938. Any future transaction will require a structured, highly negotiated PIPE or convertible note facility to meet minimum cash closing conditions.
• The regulatory hurdle under SEC Subpart 1600 of Regulation S-K has fundamentally altered the S-4 filing timeline. The mutual termination with ReserveOne was driven not just by digital asset market volatility, but by the compounding friction of SEC disclosure mandates, specifically the target co-registrant liability, board advisory determinations, and intensive auditing requirements for underlying digital asset holdings.

• Laris Growth Acquisition Corp. is a blank check company formed to effect a business combination, focusing on high-growth deep-tech businesses with compelling valuation arbitrage and need for scaled growth capital.
• The company focuses on high-growth deep-tech businesses in Quantum Computing, Next-Generation Space, and Intelligent Autonomous Systems across Europe, Australia/New Zealand, and the United States.
• As of May 31, 2026, the company reported $3,062 in working capital and shareholders’ equity, but public shareholders face approximately 108.7% dilution upon closing.

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• Arr Planner’s affordable luxury positioning continues to drive strong growth amid a competitive homebuilding market, with record company-wide H1 order value.
• Gross margin continued to expand on higher per-unit selling prices across both custom-built and development homes, supported by stronger product appeal and brand image.
• With the broader homebuilding industry raising prices, the Company has room to lift unit prices.

• Strategic Pivot to Direct Private Equity: Groupe Bruxelles Lambert (GBL) is actively transitioning from a passive, listed-asset holding company to a direct, private equity-style control investor. This is led by ex-KKR EMEA Chairman Johannes Huth, who assumed executive leadership in May 2025. To fund this pivot, GBL has executed aggressive portfolio simplification, winding down its GBL Capital funds program (raising €1.7 billion through LP-led secondaries) and divesting its third-party asset management division, Sienna Investment Managers.
• Holdco Discount and Family Friction: GBL trades at a persistent ~31% discount to its €13.1 billion net asset value (NAV). While management targets the discount via structural simplification and an eighth share buyback program (€598.9 million envelope), the dual-family control (Desmarais and Frère) enforces rigid structural boundaries. Cross-border capital flow tax leakages (such as optimizing through Luxembourg-based vehicles like Serena S.à r.l.) and a conservative loan-to-value (LTV) framework cap the speed and agility of GBL’s capital recycling.
• Execution Risks in Mega-Deals: GBL’s push into direct private assets is meeting stiff market friction. Its joint €10.7 billion take-private bid for Recordati with CVC Capital Partners at €51.29 per share has faced intense public pushback from activist investor Palliser Capital, which demands at least €60 per share. This highlight’s GBL’s vulnerability to valuation inflation and minority-shareholder resistance as it enters large-scale private equity bidding wars without the deep operational specialist benches of pure-play competitors.

• High-Compounding Nordic Industrial Serial Acquirer: Tången Industrikapital AB (publ) has established a scalable decentralized acquisition platform focused on high-barrier B2B niches across Regulatory Expertise, Service Solutions, and Industrial Technology, generating a 2023–2025 net sales CAGR of 44.8% to reach SEK 1,595.2m.
• Substantial Margin Expansion and Cash Generation: Pricing power in mission-critical and compliance-led end markets expanded EBITDA margins from 8.97% in 2023 to 13.33% in 2025, driving net income up 259% to SEK 103.2m and delivering SEK 169.8m in Free Cash Flow to Equity (FCFE) in FY2025.
• Strong Balance Sheet Backing Disciplined M&A: Following its mid-2026 Nasdaq Stockholm listing at SEK 67.00 per share (currently trading at SEK 81.20), Tången maintains a robust capital position to execute its steady acquisition cadence of 4 to 5 accretive add-ons annually while avoiding over-leveraged roll-up risks.

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• A perfect 100 GRESB score and approved science-based targets lower the cost of capital, making the portfolio a magnet for SFDR Article 8 and 9 institutional funds.
• Transitioning to a USD 100bn AUM fund manager unlocks massive value, supported by a USD 650m share buyback exploiting a steep net asset value discount.
• Exiting the build-to-sell segment de-risks cash flows and accelerates capital returns, while providing a hard yield floor through a secure US cents 25.0 base dividend.

• Bankwest’s shift to digital and ongoing corporate streamlining are defensive moves designed to preserve margins, but their real cost-saving benefits are slow to materialize. The A$45 million Bankwest digital transition provision in FY25 and consecutive rounds of technology redundancies in 2026 (averaging over 1,100 roles) illustrate that restructuring is a continuous, survival-driven process rather than a one-off corporate victory.
• The APRA transition away from Additional Tier 1 (AT1) capital starting January 1, 2027, will raise CBA’s minimum CET1 floor to 10.50%, tightening capital flexibility and putting pressure on Return on Equity (ROE). While S&P Global’s May 2026 rating update affirmed CBA’s fundamental capital strength, replacing cheaper AT1 hybrids with more expensive common equity and Tier 2 subordinated debt will structurally compress net ROE.
• CBA’s executive KPI framework creates a structural tension between defending mortgage market share and maintaining Net Interest Margin (NIM). Despite growing its home loan portfolio to A$749 billion in FY26, asset pricing competition compressed NIM by 3 basis points to 2.05%. Management’s current bias is to protect the margin front-book via proprietary channels over broker-originated volume, reflecting a disciplined refusal to buy unprofitable market share.

• Japan Post Insurance (7181 JP) is executing a structural profitability turnaround, with FY2026 net income expanding 36.7% YoY to JPY 168.8B (3-year CAGR of 20.03%), lifting net profit margins to 5.89% amid widening mortality margins and expanding domestic investment yields.
• The macroeconomic regime shift characterized by Bank of Japan policy normalization and rising long-term JGB yields provides a sustainable tailwind to portfolio reinvestment yields and Embedded Value (EEV), easing negative spread burdens on legacy books.
• Trading at a deep valuation discount of ~0.40x P/B and an estimated P/EV under 0.50x, backed by zero debt leverage, high regulatory solvency, and strong dividend growth (5-year CAGR of 24.57%), the risk-reward profile is highly favorable for value-oriented institutional investors.

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• Velos Acquisition I Corp. is a Cayman Islands blank check company formed to effect a business combination with one or more businesses.
• The company was formed to effect a business combination and has until August 2, 2027, to complete it.
• The company reported a working capital deficit of $8,049,671 as of June 30, 2026, and management has substantial doubt about its ability to continue as a going concern.

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• In this edition: • AkzoNobel | completes Pakistan exit at 14x EV/EBITDA • Van Lanschot Kempen | expands fiduciary platform through Aegon AM transfer • PostNL | faces new competitive threat as Bundle targets business-mail volumes • PostNL | multi-year contract for the delivery of the majority of government mail

• POSCO’s pre-market block sale of its entire 2.7% stake (20.28 million shares) at 33,360 won per share on October 1, 2026, successfully unwinds a decade-long strategic cross-shareholding. While it removes a structural overhang, it has triggered immediate downward pressure on the stock, falling over 4% today.
• Woori’s diversification strategy is materially shifting its earnings profile, with non-banking net income contribution climbing from 7% in Q2 2025 to 22% in Q2 2026. This growth is anchored by the dual acquisition of Tongyang Life and ABL Life for a combined 1.54 trillion won, which is slated to culminate in a merged 55 trillion won life insurer in the second half of 2027.
• Tight regulatory constraints are forcing major operational adjustments. Despite the Financial Services Commission (FSC) expanding the annual household loan growth target from 1.5% to 3% in August 2026, Woori Bank has had to implement aggressive self-imposed caps—such as slashing monthly mortgage lending per branch to 1 billion won—to maintain compliance while stabilizing its CET1 ratio at 13.71% as of Q2 2026.

• Market Leadership and Structural Moat: Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) occupies the premier position within the Australian banking sector, anchored by an industry-leading ~25% retail mortgage market share and ~27% household deposit base, which generates durable low-cost funding advantages and sustainably higher Return on Equity (~14%) relative to domestic peers.
• Resilient Operational Execution Amid Sector Headwinds: CBA delivered solid FY26 revenue of A$70.5bn (+0.9% YoY) and net income of A$10.9bn (+7.4% YoY), demonstrating disciplined loan pricing, proactive operating cost management, and robust credit quality despite competitive mortgage discounting and elevated deposit costs across the industry.
• Valuation Premium Demands Continued Execution: Trading at ~23.2x forward P/E and ~3.2x P/B, CBA commands a historic premium over peers (Westpac, NAB, and ANZ trading at ~15-19x P/E and ~1.1-1.7x P/B); while supported by superior digital scale and pre-provision earnings stability, the multiple leaves minimal cushion for macroeconomic or asset quality shocks.

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• What you need to know: • Kobo reported diamond drill results from 14 additional holes at its 100%-owned Kossou Gold Project in Côte d’Ivoire.
• • Six holes were completed at the Road Cut Zone, headlined by KDD0191 with 1.94 g/t Au over 19.0m, while step-outs extended the system north.
• • Eight holes tested the Kadie Zone and returned high-grade intercepts like 9.78 g/t Au over 2.0m and 9.26 g/t Au over 2.0m.

• POSCO Holdings (005490 KS) is looking to raise US$503m in a secondary sale of its shares in Woori Financial Group (316140 KS).
• This is a long-awaited cleanup sale by POSCO Holdings (005490 KS).
• In this note, we will run the deal through our ECM framework.

• It is not surprising that investors compare JustCo to WeWork, as both share the same business model: sign a long lease with a landlord, spend on renovation, rent out workstations on shorter and flexible terms, and earn the rental spread.

• There are inherent mismatches of fixed cost versus flexible revenue, long liability versus short visibility.

• The flexi-office business model carries high operating leverage, given that its costs are mostly fixed.

• The Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) has been trending up for 3 weeks (including this week), our model flagged it as ‘overbought’. Wall Street/Tokyo brokerages maintain medium-to-long-term bullish trajectories
• Index rebalance will be official from October 1st: added Capcom, Kokusai Electric, and JX Advanced Metals, removing Archion, Konica Minolta, and Kanadevia.
• The price-weighted index has been tilted further toward semiconductors, advanced manufacturing, tech growth, driving institutional flows into chip suppliers. Higher yields and potential further rate hikes present persistent headwind risk.

• HDFC Bank ownership has fallen from 51.4% to 40.6% of active funds since December, with $3.2bn of outflows and holdings halving to $9.3bn.
• The selling spans every mandate: Asia ex-Japan and ACWI ex-USA ownership both fell 17.3 points, with net sellers dominating GEM and Global funds too.
• A cooling on India amid the AI trade likely triggered it, but investors staying in India are switching to ICICI Bank and SBI.

• With 100% occupancy in Tower 3 and Tower 4, Nesco continues to generate steady revenue of INR 98cr+ and EBIT of INR 80cr+ per quarter.
• Q1 tends to be seasonally weak for exhibitions (BEC), thus QoQ comparison is not relevant. YoY BEC revenue and EBIT grew 10% YoY to INR 44cr+ and INR 22cr+, respectively.
• The Foods business continues to maintain its growth momentum with revenue up 20%+. Work has commenced on 4 sites on Hyderabad-Vishakapatnam expressway for wayside amenities.

• A long tail of earnings growth – Although investor attention on Kyoto FG centers on its significant equity holdings in Kyoto-based companies and the unwinding of those positions we believe the more important story is the improving operating trend at the underlying bank which we think is underappreciated and offers a long tail of earnings growth that is unique among Japan’s regional banks as its fixed-rate loan book gradually reprices.
• The equity portfolio is an additional kicker, providing shareholder return optionality well above peers as it is monetized, and together we think they warrant a premium valuation for what the Bank offers.
• Conservative targets, strong start – The new MTP targets net income of ¥90bn+ by FY3/29 (~2x FY3/26 excluding the gain on Nintendo shares), alongside ROE of 8%+, OHR in the 40% range, ¥300bn+ of shareholding reduction, and a total payout of 50%+.

• Prime Target: Heiwa’s JPY 171bn market cap perfectly fits activist accumulation parameters, unlocking trapped capital to force aggressive balance sheet reallocation and robust ROE expansion.
• TSE Reform Tailwind: Mandated capital efficiency has already driven a massive JPY 1bn buyback and 6.7m share cancellation, propelling ROE to 9.0% and signaling further unwinds.
• De-Risked Entry: A surging JPY 98 per share dividend floor offsets macroeconomic rate hike risks, offering a highly asymmetric risk-reward profile ahead of imminent governance catalysts.

• Regulated Market Infrastructure Provider: Hydra X operates as a licensed digital asset custodian and tokenisation platform bridging traditional finance with blockchain ecosystems. The company leverages its Capital Markets Services licence from the Monetary Authority of Singapore to deliver institutional-grade exchange technology and secure settlement services across the Asia-Pacific region.
• High-Margin Regulatory Moat: The business model combines recurring software licensing with asset-based custody fees, .yielding a strong gross margin of 82.7% for the 2024 financial year. This asset-light financial profile is protected by formidable barriers to entry, as the rigorous regulatory approval process and deep institutional workflow integrations create substantial customer switching costs.
• Operating Leverage Still to Be Proven: Compliance and administrative overhead scaled faster than revenue through FY24, producing a US$1.9m net loss and reducing cash and cash equivalents to US$3.4m by year end. FY25 showed early improvement, with revenue up 34% and the loss before tax narrowing to US$0.8m, but the company remains loss-making and dependent on its cash reserves and further equity funding.

• The strategic metals and gold-focused exploration and development Company drew attention this morning to new agreement between the US, Denmark and Greenland to strengthen defence and security cooperation in Greenland and the wider Arctic and North Atlantic region.
• Arkadian’s 51%-owned Motzfeldt Critical Metals Project is close to the proposed US defence base at Narsarsuaq, and the Company notes that future investment in regional transport and logistics could support Motzfeldt’s development.
• Narsarsuaq was established as a US military base in 1941 and used in that capacity until 1958. 

• A consortium comprising CSI Properties (497 HK), Asia Standard International Group (129 HK), and Cheung Chung-kiu, applied to the Town Planning Board to redevelop “Harbourside HQ”  into two residential towers.
• The Planning Department previously indicated no objection to the application. However, Hong Kong’s Town Planning Board rejected the proposal last Friday.
• Vacancy rates for HK commercial properties remain elevated. 25% for Harbourside HQ. Yet, rezoning sets a precedent that cannot easily be reversed (as and) when economic conditions rebound.

• NIFTY 50 rebalance will be effective on 30 Sep 2026 before market open, with one ADD and one DELETE.
• BSE fell 13.9% and Wipro fell 12.9% over the bridge window to 28 Sep 2026, with one session left before implementation.
• Historically, ADDs and DELETEs with a negative bridge mostly gained in the first implementation week.

• Western Union’s acquisition of International Money Express faces a widened spread, with California’s approval pending, impacting merger arbitrage.
• Priority Technology Holdings’ take-private offer increased to $8.05/share, with a 3% remaining spread, following a definitive agreement.
• OFX Group’s A$1/share offer by Equals sees a 68% spread, with financing doubts and extended exclusivity to October 30.

• Asymmetric Trade Setup: Initiate a tactical long in Sino Land (0083.HK) before the October 29, 2026 ex-dividend date to capture VWAP-anchored price stability driven by the sponsor’s structural scrip election.
• Float Compression Catalyst: Tsim Sha Tsui Properties consistently elects scrip on its 58.11% stake, locking up massive equity, tightening public float liquidity, and engineering a highly predictable price support floor.
• Fortress Balance Sheet: Unlike highly levered peers, Sino Land boasts HKD 59.07 bn in cash, providing an impenetrable macroeconomic shield that virtually eliminates downside credit and refinancing risks.

• Bullish call positioning defined the week of September 21.
• Extreme low put-call ratios hit several names across autos, utilities, and financials.
• Yet bearish hedging surged in equal measure elsewhere – earnings-linked put buying and sector-level stress signals kept the week far from one-directional.

• Captive Distribution Moat with Under-Penetrated Base: SBI Funds Management (SBI FM) captures more than 96% of mutual fund assets mobilized through State Bank of India’s 23,265 branches. However, only 2% of SBI’s 530 million banking clients are converted, representing a massive domestic growth runaway that insulates SBI FM from any immediate ‘open architecture’ threats.
• Structural Revenue Mismatch and Regulatory Pressure: While SBI FM’s overall average AUM has crossed ₹13 trillion, over half of this is low-margin PMS/advisory (including the EPFO mandate) or passive products. The active equity book (₹5.32 trillion) generates 75.3% of total fee income. The transition from the old TER framework to the SEBI Base Expense Ratio (BER) model on April 1, 2026, has squeezed active equity margins by 10 to 15 basis points.
• Distribution Muscle Masking Performance Challenges: Performance is a critical concern, as 33.3% of SBI’s active equity schemes (9 out of 26) sat in the bottom quartile over three years as of March 31, 2026. Growth is disproportionately driven by parent brand trust and the extensive Beyond Top-30 (B-30) footprint rather than consistent, alpha-generating investment performance.

• Short sellers made decisive moves this week ending September 26.
• Energy refining ETF CRAK saw SI hit 36.8% of float – up 38% in seven days.
• Mortgage REIT RWT saw the sharpest build, with SI surging 215% to 22.1% of float as borrow dried up.

• Puradelta Lestari (DMAS IJ) Industrial revenue surged 218% YoY to Rp1,744 Bn in 1H26, driven by data-center transactions that reached Rp1,676.6 Bn, or 93.6% of total sales.
• Sojitz Corp.’s 25% ownership provides strategic context to GIIC’s positioning, while DMAS is becoming an indirect beneficiary of Indonesia’s data-center build-out. 
• We test, through a forensic examination of DMAS’s land, recurring-income and balance-sheet economics, whether the stock can still support more than 25% upside after the market’s data-center repricing.

Key points (machine generated)

• Globe-ing Inc. reported record revenue of ¥11,512 million and profit of ¥3,051 million for FY5/26, marking increases of 39.4% and 72.6% YoY, respectively.
• The company announced its first dividend of ¥16.1 per share, with plans to raise it to ¥35.6 per share for FY5/27, targeting a 30% payout ratio.
• Globe-ing forecasts approximately 40% revenue growth for FY5/27, focusing on JI consulting, AI transformation, and investment/M&A, aiming for ¥120 billion in consolidated revenue by FY5/31.

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• Bitcoin closed near $84,449 (CoinGecko, Sept 27 close), hitting an eight-month high above $86,500 on Monday.

• BTC ETFs turned positive for 2026 after $2.8B in inflows (Sep 18 – Sep 25) erased a $5.8B YTD deficit. Net inflows are now +800M for the year.

• BitMEX permanently shut down on Sept 23 after twelve years. The exchange that invented crypto perpetual futures closed its books.

• Ingenia Communities (INA AU)‘s share price declined ~13% as shareholders didn’t take kindly to its 26th August cash/scrip Offer for real estate developer Peet Ltd (PPC AU).
• Warburg Pincus saw an opportunity, and pitched a A$4.75/share NBIO, by way of a Scheme, on the 7th September (rejected); then A$5.05/share on the 21st September (also rejected).
• A third NBIO, at A$5.25/share, was announced this morning. Ingenia is assessing terms. As with the two previous bids, Warburg’s Offer is conditional on terminating the Peet Scheme.

• FnGuide Inc (064850 KS) announced a significant improvement in its new Corporate Value-Up program. The changes are meaningful and likely to have positive impact on share price.
• FnGuide also plans on share buyback and cancellation of 15 billion won over the next three years (2026 – 2028).
• FnGuide raised total shareholder returns to 40% or higher from 2026 to 2028. Previously, FnGuide did not explicitly mention the total shareholder returns, other than the 25%+ dividend payout ratio.

• Mr Hung’s offer for Get Nice (64 HK) is HK$2.00 in cash plus a HK$2.00 special dividend. The gross spread is now 3.6%, and the vote is on 26 October.
• Mr Hung holds 51.67%. Blocking the scheme requires 4.83% of outstanding shares (10% of disinterested holders), and no disinterested shareholder appears to be close to that.
• The IFA says the offer is fair and reasonable. It justifies the 62.5% NAV discount by past trading discounts and the cost of selling assets. This is a done deal.

• Ingenia Communities (INA AU) received a revised Warburg Pincus proposal at A$5.25, a 4.0% premium to the prior A$5.05 offer and 22.7% to the undisturbed price. The Board is assessing it.
• The offer implies only a modest control premium to sell-side price targets and peer multiples, but a third outright rejection would be hard to justify amid mounting shareholder pressure. 
• The offer lapses on Friday 2 October unless the Board grants due diligence. I expect engagement, and no “best and final” wording leaves room for a higher bid. 

• Singapura Finance (“SF”) is a Singapore-based financial services firm that offers loans for both consumers and corporates.

• Other services include savings and fixed deposits.

• The firm has seven branches located in populous areas to serve its client base that’s spread throughout Singapore.

• Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.
• Highlights: In India, currently three pair trade opportunities persist across two sectors.
• Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.

• American Financial Group reported its second quarter 2026 results with a 32% increase in core net operating earnings per share to $2.82, driven by strong underwriting margins, premium growth, and higher net investment income.
• The company recorded an annualized core operating return on equity of 19.2%.
• Its $17.1 billion investment portfolio benefited from a 23% year-over-year increase in net investment income, boosted by improved alternative investment returns, which generated an annualized return of approximately 7.1% for the quarter compared to 1.2% in the prior year.

• Over five sessions, 60 director interests and substantial shareholdings were filed, including 23 acquisitions and two disposals by directors/CEOs.
• Seatrium launched a new S$200 million Share Buyback Programme, funded from existing cash, doubling the previous programme.
• Alan Goh of Katrina Group sold 12.6 million shares, reducing his interest to 76.7%, with BYD By 1826 acquiring 5%.

• On the 17th July, Hung Hon Man, Get Nice (64 HK)‘s chairman (& founder) offered HK$4/share, comprising a HK$2 consideration + HK$2 special dividend. Terms appear not to be final.
• Terms are also low-balled. A 17.6% premium to undisturbed. And a 62.8% discount to NAV. However, minorities are indifferent when perusing past AGM voting. 
• The Scheme Booklet is now out, with a 26th October Scheme Meeting, and expected payment on the 16th November. The IFA (Veda Capital) concluded “fair and reasonable“. 

• Instone Real Estate Group SE is a German residential-development company listed on Deutsche Börse’s Xetra market (ticker INS)
• Acquiring land and developing multi-family and mixed-use residential projects across major German cities — Frankfurt, Hamburg, Leipzig and the wider Rhine-Main region
• Then selling completed units to retail buyers and institutional investors alike.

• Murakami’s City Index Fifth has launched a JPY125,000-per-unit tender (a 16.6% premium to the last close) for Sankei Real Estate (2972 JP). That matches Tosei/GIC’s failed offer, which Murakami blocked.
• Murakami’s terms are weaker than Tosei/GIC: 1.10x P/NAV versus 1.15x, no price negotiation, a neutral board, no majority-of-minority condition and a vaguer commitment on rival bids.
• The squeeze-out vote relies on low turnout and passives. However, the 25.42% minimum looks reachable (24.66% tendered last time, plus 10.32% irrevocables). 

• Edelweiss’ asset management businesses continue to scale up rapidly and lead the profitability. The Alternatives business (EAAA) is on track to complete its IPO by Q3FY27.
• The insurance businesses are on track to breakeven during FY27 as per the earlier guidance. Motor insurance business in particular is scaling up rapidly for Edelweiss.
• With consistent scaling up and value unlocking, Edelweiss is making the right moves. At current valuation, an investment in it has potential to double over a holding period of 3Y.

• Crédit Agricole already owns 29.3% of Banco BPM, leaving only a modest gap to the roughly one-third share it is reportedly expected to receive in a break-up.
• A plausible split would leave UniCredit with most of BPM’s Commercial and CIB businesses, while CA takes Agos, insurance links and selected branches or customers.
• We value a joint UniCredit/CA transaction at €18.50/share versus BAMI at €16.40; our probability-weighted value is €16.87.

• Australia’s ASIC releases the aggregated short position data four business days after the reporting day. Data in this insight is up to 21st September, published on the 25th September.
• The largest industry net increase in the past week was A$0.3bn into “Diversified Metals”; the largest industry net decrease was A$0.3bn out of “Industrial REITs“. Net shorts increased A$0.6bn week-on-week.
• Companies mentioned in this regular weekly report include: NAB (NAB AU), Codan (CDA AU), The Lottery Corporation (TLC AU), Minerals 260 (MI6 AU), andbSunrise Energy Metals (SRL AU).

• Kolte Patil after going through a transition phase post the ownership and leadership change, after onboarding of Blackstone as a strategic shareholder, is on track to perform strong in FY27.
• As the rumors had suggested and as we had highlighted in our previous note, the new CEO, Hrishikesh Parandekar, joined effective Aug 24 2026.
• Led by the new leadership and organizational structure, Kolte Patil is seeing accelerated growth across all fronts – pre-sales and launches, deliveries and business development.

• Context: The Credit Corp (CCP AU) vs. Magellan Financial (MFG AU) price ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
• Highlight: Going long Magellan Financial (MFG AU) and short Credit Corp (CCP AU) targets a 13% return.
• Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

• Sankei Real Estate’s (2972 JP) new ¥125,000 per unit tender offer by Murakami-backed City Index Fifth is a face-saving restructuring exit after Murakami blocked the identical Tosei/GIC bid in May 2026. The transaction represents a negotiated compromise where the asset manager agreed to liquidate the problematic Fukuoka Green Building for ¥5.5 billion to clear the path for privatization.
• The board’s support of the tender offer, while maintaining a neutral recommendation to unitholders, is a defensive posture under METI’s Fair M&A Guidelines. Because the asset manager, Sankei Building Asset Management, remains deeply aligned with the sponsor, Fuji Media Holdings (FMH), the board could not actively recommend tendering without facing potential lawsuits over the underlying value of the sponsor’s concurrent ¥1 trillion restructuring sale process.
• Retail broker non-participation and administrative friction present a major technical risk to the transaction’s completion. Since the tender offer is managed strictly through a designated lead broker, minority retail unitholders face significant friction in transferring units across non-cooperating brokerages, which historic data shows can lead to a 5% to 10% non-response rate that threatens the 45% minimum threshold.

• The $1.35 billion pre-tax software capitalization write-down in 1H26 is a strategic “kitchen-sinking” exercise disguised as an AI-driven policy change. While management attributes it to AI making software redundant faster, the primary driver is a balance sheet clean-up by the new executive team to lower the capitalization threshold from $5 million to $20 million, bringing NAB in line with peer practices and resetting the run-rate cost base.
• The formal cancellation of AUSTRAC’s Enforceable Undertaking on July 25, 2025, marks a massive regulatory milestone, but run-rate compliance costs will remain elevated. The implementation of the AML/CTF Amendment Act 2024 (phasing in during 2026) shifts the monitoring burden to the banks to oversee “Tranche 2” professional services clients, offsetting any projected cost savings from the EU exit.
• The APRA Additional Tier 1 (AT1) phase-out commencing January 1, 2027, will require NAB to replace 1.5% of its capital structure with 0.25% CET1 and 1.25% Tier 2. With $9.0 billion in outstanding hybrids as of January 2026, the transition will create a minor funding cost benefit but will act as a structural drag on Return on Equity (ROE) due to the higher Common Equity Tier 1 requirements.

• Special Purpose Vehicle Structure: Northern Star Investment Corp. III is a Delaware-incorporated blank check company that raised $400 million in its March 2021 initial public offering, targeting high-growth enterprises within direct-to-consumer (D2C) and digitally disruptive e-commerce sectors.
• Financial Profile & Capital Dynamics: Operating as a pre-combination vehicle, the company generates zero commercial revenues; net income fluctuations ($16.76M in 2022 vs. -$1.23M in 2021) are driven by non-cash warrant liability fair-value adjustments and trust interest income against recurring administrative cash burn (-$0.93M operating cash flow in 2022).
• Risk-Adjusted Institutional Proposition: While the cash held in trust provides downside floor protection near nominal NAV, macro de-SPAC headwinds, elevated redemption risks across the sector, and tight statutory timelines create significant execution friction for completing an accretive acquisition.

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• The proposed joint UniCredit/Crédit Agricole break-up bid for Banco BPM faces massive execution friction. Splitting a commercial bank’s balance sheet, treasury, and IT systems (representing a 1/3 asset carve-out for Crédit Agricole) is structurally unprecedented in the Italian market and would destroy significant scale synergies, though it serves as a critical tool to bypass antitrust limits in Lombardy.
• Regulatory capital treatment remains exceptionally hawkish under the SSM. The ECB’s rejection of the “Danish Compromise squared” for Banco BPM’s €1.8 billion acquisition of Anima in 2025—which triggered a 240 basis point capital hit—signals that any combined entity will face strict capital deduction of asset management goodwill, limiting the financial feasibility of cash-heavy premiums.
• Giuseppe Castagna and the Board have high defensive leverage via Rome’s Golden Power rules. The Italian government’s willingness to impose operational conditions (such as Russian exit timelines and loan-to-deposit limits) remains a powerful deterrent against hostile or unaligned takeovers, forcing any successful consolidator to align closely with national political and SME lending agendas.