Category

Financials

Daily Brief Financials: Country Garden Holdings Co, Groupe Bruxelles Lambert Sa, China SCE, Sino-Ocean Group, MSCI Inc, Pakuwon Jati, S&U PLC and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Country Garden – Earnings Flash – FY 2022 Results – Lucror Analytics
  • Concentrix/Webhelp: A Good Deal for GBL
  • China SCE – Earnings Flash – FY 2022 Results – Lucror Analytics
  • Sino-Ocean – Earnings Flash – FY 2022 Results – Lucror Analytics
  • Boom, Bust, Reboot, Rebalance: ESG Index Funds And “Greenwashing” Regulations
  • Pakuwon Jati – Earnings Flash – FY 2022 Results – Lucror Analytics
  • S&U – Confident but remaining prudent in approach

Country Garden – Earnings Flash – FY 2022 Results – Lucror Analytics

By Charles Macgregor

Country Garden has released its FY 2022 results, with revenue and earnings declines as well as margin contraction. Reported debt decreased. EBITDA/Interest and Debt/EBITDA weakened significantly, but Net Debt/Net Property Assets remained sound. In December, the company received HKD 4.74 bn (c. USD 609 mn) from a private placement of 1.78 bn shares, with the funds primarily to be used for offshore debt commitments.

We are not surprised by Country Garden’s poor earnings performance in FY 2022, given that it had been a dire year for the Chinese property industry. We view positively the company’s repayment of debts due in 2022, despite difficulties in property sales and cash collection.

We remain cautious about the likelihood that management can achieve its goal of increasing Country Garden’s market share in higher-tier cities. We also continue to be highly concerned over the recovery trajectory for the group’s margins and property sales in FY 2023, considering the relatively large portion of existing inventory in Tier 3 and 4 cities compared to peers.


Concentrix/Webhelp: A Good Deal for GBL

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Concentrix has signed a deal to merge with Webhelp (unlisted) in a cash and shares deal worth roughly $4.8 billion, including net debt. Webhelp is 59.15% owned by GBL.
  • GBL obtains €1,787 million (vs. €1,721 million last valuation). GBL doesn’t miss on a good deal, even momentarily reversing the trend of increasing share of private assets in portfolio.
  • The discount, albeit recently tightening, stays at a high level, 36.9%, despite the good deal and higher portfolio visibility and cash holdings.

China SCE – Earnings Flash – FY 2022 Results – Lucror Analytics

By Charles Macgregor

SCE’s FY 2022 results were as expected, with sustained weakness in contracted sales and revenue, along with weaker margins. Going forward, management’s strategy includes progressing steadily to deal with the volatility in the industry. The delivery of projects will be a key objective, in order to maintain homebuyer confidence.


Sino-Ocean – Earnings Flash – FY 2022 Results – Lucror Analytics

By Charles Macgregor

Sino-Ocean’s FY 2022 results were very weak. The decline in property sales revenue and profitability did not come as a surprise, given the moribund state of the property industry. The CNY 4.8 bn increase in gross debt and CNY 5.2 bn write-down on financial investments were, however, somewhat unexpected. These reflect very poorly on management and, needless to say, there have been no changes of note in this regard.


Boom, Bust, Reboot, Rebalance: ESG Index Funds And “Greenwashing” Regulations

By Kyle Rudden

  • Whatever one calls it – a boom-going-bust, a bubble bursting, a market correcting – the ESG party that has raged for years appears to be winding down for certain investors.
  • Some partygoers have over-indulged in the ESG Kool-Aid, and regulators have the perfect elixir to sober them up – new and often confusing “anti-greenwashing” investing regulations.
  • Particularly consequential for indexed ESG funds.  Index providers and asset managers struggle to comply, evidenced by recent methodology changes, reconstitutions, and fund closings.

Pakuwon Jati – Earnings Flash – FY 2022 Results – Lucror Analytics

By Trung Nguyen

Pakuwon Jati’s (PWON) FY 2022 results were acceptable. This was despite the company missing its pre-sales and earnings targets, given the sharp deterioration in the operating environment in H2 on the back of a steep rise in interest rates. Growth in y-o-y revenue, earnings and cash-flow was expected, given the COVID-19 lockdowns in FY 2021. Positively, the balance sheet remains in great shape, with net cash and no short-term debt. The company has the best credit profile among the companies under our Indonesian real estate coverage, and is the only one that has not carried out any bond tender offer below par. PWON has the best quality portfolio of retail assets and the highest portion of recurrent rental income among peers.


S&U – Confident but remaining prudent in approach

By Edison Investment Research

As a specialist lender, S&U is sensitive to the economic background, but in its main motor finance business it has a strong track record of managing and growing through bumpy conditions. The newer property bridging business is maturing and shares a focus on customer service and a conservative underwriting approach. This provides the group with a sound basis for sustainable long-term growth.


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Daily Brief Financials: Rakuten Bank, Mapletree Logistics Trust, Bank Mandiri Persero, Roojai, Vonovia SE, China Jinmao Holdings, Qoala, Binance Coin and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Rakuten Bank IPO – Thoughts on Valuation
  • MLT Placement – Small Deal but Recent Deals Didn’t Do Well
  • Indonesian Banks Screener; Mandiri Is Our Top Pick
  • Thai Insurtech Firm Roojai Bags US$42M in Fresh Funding
  • Vonovia: German Real Estate – Revisiting a Sector with Strong Long-Term Fundamentals
  • China Jinmao – Earnings Flash – FY 2022 Results – Lucror Analytics
  • Qoala Raises Another $7.5m, Targets Profitability in 3 Years
  • CFTC V. Binance: The Data Behind the Suit

Rakuten Bank IPO – Thoughts on Valuation

By Sumeet Singh

  • Rakuten Bank (5838 JP), the online banking arm of Rakuten (4755 JP), aims to raise up to around US$900m in its Japan listing in April 2023.
  • RB is the largest internet bank in Japan, by number of accounts. As of Dec 22, it had 13.3m deposit accounts with a total deposit base of JPY8.8tn.
  • In our earlier notes, we have looked at the company’s past performance and undertook a peer comparison. In this note, we provide our thoughts on valuation.

MLT Placement – Small Deal but Recent Deals Didn’t Do Well

By Sumeet Singh

  • Mapletree Logistics Trust (MLT SP) plans to raise around US$150 (S$200m) to partially fund the acquisition of logistics properties in Japan, Australia and South Korea.
  • We have earlier covered the previous six placements for the REIT since 2017. Most of the past deals have done well except for the two most recent ones.
  • In this note, we will run the deal through our ECM framework and talk about deal dynamics.

Indonesian Banks Screener; Mandiri Is Our Top Pick

By Victor Galliano

  • We rate Bank Mandiri as our top pick with its attractive valuations including PEG ratio relative to solid returns and strong balance sheet – including liquidity –  metrics
  • We also continue to favour Bank Negara, but it is our secondary value pick to Mandiri; Bank Central Asia, albeit fully valued, has impressive liquidity and return metrics
  • Bank Rakyat had mixed returns in 4Q22, with pre-provision returns declining sharply QoQ although cost of risk continued to improve, due to better credit quality, thereby supporting post-provision profits

Thai Insurtech Firm Roojai Bags US$42M in Fresh Funding

By e27

  • Thai insurtech company Roojai has secured US$42 million in new financing round, as per multiple news reports.
  • HDI International, a subsidiary of Germany’s Talanx Group, led the round that also saw participation from existing investor IFC.
  • About US$32 million will be invested via direct injection and the remaining amount through a secondary share transaction.

Vonovia: German Real Estate – Revisiting a Sector with Strong Long-Term Fundamentals

By Alexis Dwek

  • Vonovia has a high negative correlation to interest rates. What if interest rates were to stabilize or fall?
  • Feedback from discussion with Head of IR gives confidence in the long-term prospects of the group
  • Share price -32% ytd. Vonovia trades on a ~70% discount to its adjusted NTA

China Jinmao – Earnings Flash – FY 2022 Results – Lucror Analytics

By Leonard Law, CFA

China Jinmao’s FY 2022 results were slightly weak, but in line with expectations. The company reported a slight top-line decline, while the gross margin contracted further to 16%. In addition, net debt continued to climb, due to acquisitions. For FY 2023, we expect revenue recognition to improve, although margins could remain weighed down by lower profitability at Jinmao’s city operations projects.

Positively, the company’s access to financing remains strong, as it was able to issue onshore bonds at low interest costs without having to provide credit enhancements. According to Jinmao, its average interest cost fell to a record low of 3.9%, despite the generally poor financing environment for the industry.

In other news, there were onshore rumours over the past week that the company may be merged with China Resources Land, with the energy businesses of China Resources Group to be integrated into Sinochem. All of the companies involved have denied the rumours. Still, we note that the business combination (if it materialises) will be positive for the CHJMAO notes, as China Resources Land is a stronger entity than Jinmao. That said, the merger is unlikely to trigger the Change of Control put, as the put option can only be triggered with a ratings downgrade.


Qoala Raises Another $7.5m, Targets Profitability in 3 Years

By Tech in Asia

  • Indonesian insurtech startup Qoala announced that it has raised US$7.5 million in a series B extension round led by Europe’s responsAbility Investments.
  • Existing investors Eurazeo and Indogen as well as new investor AppWorks also participated in the round.
  • The startup declined to comment on its valuation, but VentureCap Insights currently pegs it at US$310 million following the fundraise.

CFTC V. Binance: The Data Behind the Suit

By Kaiko

  • Binance is the world’s largest crypto exchange by a huge margin.
  • It has achieved consistent growth since its founding in 2017, but its increasing dominance has been striking to watch since 2020, when it held around 25% of spot volume market share.
  • Its market share approached 50% at the tail end of the 2021 bull market before retreating and again expanding to peak over 70% this year. 

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Daily Brief Financials: Japan Real Estate Investment, Areit (AyalaLand REIT), Thai Life Insurance, Turkiye Garanti Bankasi As, Afrexim Bank, Bumi Serpong Damai, CK Asset Holdings, INVESCO Asia Trust PLC, Hywin Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Japan Real Estate Investment (8952 JP) : Offering Could Be a Catalyst for Outperformance Vs Peers
  • AREIT Placement – Parent Is Buying High and Selling Low
  • Quiddity Leaderboard for SET50 Jun 23 Review: TLI ADD & JMART DEL Likely; BJC Is a Question Mark
  • Garanti: Strong Results, Reiterate BUY on the USD 6.125% Tier 2
  • Japan Real Estate Investment Corp Placement – An Acquisition Out of the Blue
  • AFREXI: Buy the 4.125% of 2024
  • BSDE IJ: Bumi Serpong Damai: Weak 1H18
  • CK Asset Holdings: Active Capital Management Deserves Re-Rating
  • Invesco Asia Trust – Conviction pays off
  • Hywin [HYW]: +18% Sales, 43% Net Cash, 5x P/E, 18% FCF Yield, Secular Growth

Japan Real Estate Investment (8952 JP) : Offering Could Be a Catalyst for Outperformance Vs Peers

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • Today after market close, one of Japan’s largest office JREITs Japan Real Estate Investment (8952 JP) announced a US$150mn follow-on equity offering to fund their recent acquisition of two properties.
  • The primary offer quantity will be 35,200 units and there is an over-allotment quantity of 2,464 units.
  • In this insight, we take a closer look at the details of this offering and the potential of this offering to trigger strong secondary market performance in the following weeks.

AREIT Placement – Parent Is Buying High and Selling Low

By Sumeet Singh

  • Ayala Land Inc (ALI PM) aims to raise around US$121m via selling around 11% of Areit (AyalaLand REIT) (AREIT PM).
  • Ayala Land and AREIT have been moving towards concluding an asset for shares swap that had been in the works for a while. This placement appears to stem from that.
  • In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Quiddity Leaderboard for SET50 Jun 23 Review: TLI ADD & JMART DEL Likely; BJC Is a Question Mark

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for the SET50 index rebalance in June 2023.
  • Based on the latest available data, I expect 2 ADDs/DELs but there are couple of names close to the border and final rankings could change with changes in share prices.
  • The three-month reference period used for the June 2023 rebalance will end on 31st May 2022.

Garanti: Strong Results, Reiterate BUY on the USD 6.125% Tier 2

By BOS Research

  • Established in 1946, Turkiye Garanti Bank (Garanti) is Turkey’s second-largest private bank.
  • As of June, 30 2017, it reported consolidated assets of TRY 335,942 MM, aided by a pioneering position in all lines of business by pursuing a profitable and sustainable growth strategy.
  • Garanti is an integrated financial services group that operates in the corporate, commercial, SME, payment systems, retail, private and investment banking sectors, along with its subsidiaries in pension and life insurance, leasing, factoring, brokerage, and asset management.

Japan Real Estate Investment Corp Placement – An Acquisition Out of the Blue

By Ethan Aw

  • Japan Real Estate Investment (8952 JP) is looking to raise around US$140m (JPY18.3bn) through a follow-on offering to acquire one new property and an additional co-ownership interest in another property.
  • The deal is a large one to digest at 10 days of three month ADV while there will be a dilution of approximately 2.7% of TSO (assuming overallotment option exercised). 
  • In this note, we will look at the assets to be acquired, impact on forecast and portfolio, and run the deal through our framework.

AFREXI: Buy the 4.125% of 2024

By BOS Research

  • Established in 1993 and headquartered in Cairo (Egypt), the African Export-Import Bank (“AFREXI”) is a sub-regional Multilateral Development Bank (MDB) that was established by its then 27 member states (now 44 countries) to promote intra-African and extra-African trade.
  • The bank is universally recognised as an MDB under Article 102 of the United Nations Charter and enjoys supranational status in all its member states.
  • Being an MDB accords AFREXI certain rights and privileges not accorded to normal financial institutions within its member countries.

BSDE IJ: Bumi Serpong Damai: Weak 1H18

By BOS Research

  • Earnings fall 80% YoY on slow revenue recognition, higher interest expense and FX loss. 1H18 presales momentum remains strong.
  • TP lowered to IDR2,000, valuations look undemanding.
  • With a vast and low cost landbank centred on its BSD City township, BSDE offers attractive exposure to Indonesia’s long term growth in property demand, especially in the wealthy Greater Jakarta region.

CK Asset Holdings: Active Capital Management Deserves Re-Rating

By BOS Research

  • Core profits +13% y/y due to contribution from newly acquired infrastructure & utility business
  • Recurring income +38%, growing ahead of management target and supporting dividend growth
  • Strong balance sheet support further share buyback and acquisition.

Invesco Asia Trust – Conviction pays off

By Edison Investment Research

Leaning into opportunities in China, along with stock selection in India, Korea and Hong Kong, has contributed positively to performance. The fund is ahead of its Asian closed-ended peers on an NAV total return (TR) basis for the year to end-February 2023 and over the long term it continues to generate a double-digit annualised NAV TR (c 10% in sterling over the past 10 years), supported by consistent income. IAT pays a regular six-monthly dividend equivalent to 2% of NAV (4% pa). The managers, Ian Hargreaves and Fiona Yang, target double-digit annualised returns from each portfolio holding over a rolling three-year period.


Hywin [HYW]: +18% Sales, 43% Net Cash, 5x P/E, 18% FCF Yield, Secular Growth

By Evaluate Research

  • Operating Income +15.5% YoY [excluding Healthcare expenses, up +21.2% YoY], with solid cost discipline and expense control
  • Net Income rose fractionally 0.3%, impacted by Healthcare initial ramp-up expenses, and other one-time non-recurring charges
  • Net Cash [zero debt, and not including restricted cash/client deposits] increased of RMB536 million [$83 million], or $2.85 per ADR equalling 43% of the stock price

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Daily Brief Financials: Credit Suisse, Nasdaq-100 Stock Index, SBI Sumishin Net Bank, Home First Finance, Yuzhou Group, Ping An Insurance (H), Alam Sutera Realty, Binance Coin, Shui On Land, Yanlord Land and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Quiddity Leaderboard SE600 Jun 23: Credit Suisse, Vantage Towers, and 3 Regular Changes
  • NASDAQ 100 E-Mini Futures (NQ1) – Multiple Bullish Triggers Confirm a Multi-Month Uptrend Bias
  • SBI Sumishin Net Bank IPO Trading – Rakuten Filing Will Add on More Pressure
  • Home First Finance (HOMEFIRS IN) | The Bounce Mystery & Way Forward
  • Yuzhou: Strong FY Results and Robust Liquidity Profile
  • Ping An: Reassuring New Business Pickup
  • Alam Sutera: Weak Results, with Declining Margins and Credit Deterioration
  • Binance Volume Plummets After End of Zero-Fee Trading
  • Shui On Land – Earnings Flash – FY 2022 Results – Lucror Analytics
  • Morning Views Asia: Anton Oilfield, Yankuang Energy Group, Yanlord Land

Quiddity Leaderboard SE600 Jun 23: Credit Suisse, Vantage Towers, and 3 Regular Changes

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the STX Europe 600 and EUROSTX Indices for the March 2023 Rebalance.
  • STX Europe 600 members Credit Suisse (CSGN SW) and Vantage Towers (VTWR GR) could possibly get deleted in the next few months triggering intra-review ADDs.
  • Separately, I see 3 more ADDs and DELs for the STX Europe 600 index in the regular review in June 2023.

NASDAQ 100 E-Mini Futures (NQ1) – Multiple Bullish Triggers Confirm a Multi-Month Uptrend Bias

By David Coloretti, CMT

  • At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
  • Q1 2023 has confirmed that the material 2022 downward correction is likely complete. Subsequently, after a period of correction, the resumption of the Q4/Q1 uptrend was confirmed.
  • Bullish price triggers combine with positive MT/LT momentum triggers to initially target 13740. A break above 13740 is increasingly likely and would present a far more bullish MT outlook.

SBI Sumishin Net Bank IPO Trading – Rakuten Filing Will Add on More Pressure

By Sumeet Singh

  • SBI Sumishin Net Bank (7163 JP) (SSNB) raised around US$370m in its second listing attempt.
  • SBI Sumishin Net Bank is a Japanese digital bank set up as a 50-50 joint venture between Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank, Japan’s largest trust bank, and SBI Group.
  • In this note, we talk about the recent updates and trading dynamics.

Home First Finance (HOMEFIRS IN) | The Bounce Mystery & Way Forward

By Pranav Bhavsar

  • Home First Finance (HOMEFIRS IN) lends to a customer segment exposed to high income volatility.
  • Soft bounces are used by customers to manage their cash flow, with bounce charge collection done on a best-effort basis, management attitude towards financial discipline warrants attention. 
  • While there may not be any immediate asset quality issues, caution is warranted. 

Yuzhou: Strong FY Results and Robust Liquidity Profile

By BOS Research

  • Yuzhou Properties Company Limited (Yuzhou) is a property developer that focuses on residential housing in West Strait Economic Zone and Yangtze River Delta.
  • The company has moved its headquarters to Shanghai from Xiamen.
  • The company has been listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange since November 2009. As of 31 Mar 2017, market capitalization of Yuzhou stands at HKD12.4b (USD1.6b).

Ping An: Reassuring New Business Pickup

By BOS Research

  • Interim results beat with strong results across most business lines
  • Life insurance new business value growth reversed to positive growth in 2Q and should accelerate
  • Fair value trimmed to HKD98 but headwinds abating in 2H

Alam Sutera: Weak Results, with Declining Margins and Credit Deterioration

By BOS Research

  • Established in 1993, PT Alam Sutera Realty Tbk (Alam Sutera) is a small Indonesian property developer, focused on the development and management of large-scale townships of residential and commercial property.
  • As of FY16, the company held total land bank of 1,898 hectares in gross area.
  • Key source of earnings remain property development sales, with recurring income limited and derived from leases in its shopping malls.

Binance Volume Plummets After End of Zero-Fee Trading

By Kaiko

  • On March 22, Binance halted its no-fee trading promotion for 13 BTC spot trading pairs, reversing a move that helped boost the exchange’s market share by more than 20% relative to its competitors.
  • The exchange also announced that it would be eliminating trading fees for the BTC-TUSD pair, which was mothballed in September and only recently re-listed.
  • It is unclear why Binance has chosen to promote its TUSD pair, although it appears the exchange has selected the stablecoin as a successor to BUSD, which is being phased out because of regulatory actions in the U.S. 

Shui On Land – Earnings Flash – FY 2022 Results – Lucror Analytics

By Leonard Law, CFA

Shui On Land’s FY 2022 results were acceptable, supported by reasonable contracted sales, along with a strong revenue recovery in H2 (following a poor H1, when revenue recognition was impacted by pandemic-related lockdowns in Shanghai). Going forward, we believe contracted sales could decrease meaningfully in FY 2023, owing to the thin sales pipeline and reduced land bank size. That said, revenue recognition might continue to rise on the back of past robust sales.

Negatively, the company’s financial profile weakened slightly, with net debt rising more than expected. Still, we believe that Shui On’s liquidity profile remains manageable and expect the company to repay the USD 500 mn SHUION 5.75 23 (due November) using cash on hand.


Morning Views Asia: Anton Oilfield, Yankuang Energy Group, Yanlord Land

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief Financials: Rakuten Bank, Samsung FN Reit, Republic First Bancorp and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Rakuten Bank Vs SBI Sumishin Net Bank
  • Samsung FN REIT: Book Building Results
  • Credit Becoming Due

Rakuten Bank Vs SBI Sumishin Net Bank

By Arun George


Samsung FN REIT: Book Building Results

By Douglas Kim

  • Samsung FN REIT announced its IPO book building results. The IPO price was determined at 5,000 won per share. The demand ratio was 24.88 to 1. 
  • The core investment thesis of Samsung FN REIT is that it is the only publicly listed Samsung affiliate that provides REIT services.
  • It is a stable business with excellent locations for its existing properties and the company is expected to provide 5.6% annual dividend yield in the next three years.

Credit Becoming Due

By Untying The Gordian Knot

  • The troubles of Silicon Valley Bank, Silvergate Capital, Credit Suisse, an ongoing lack of confidence in European banks, and First Republic Bank have resulted in extreme volatility in Short dated Interest rates, Banks, and Financials.
  • The sharp rise in fixed-income volatility has not happened to FX, Commodity, and Equity volatility.
  • We saw record one-day moves in 3-month SOFR futures, and 2-Year Treasury yields dropped the most since 2008.

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Daily Brief Financials: DGB Financial Group and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • KOSPI200 Ad Hoc Index Rebalance: DGB Financial (139130 KS) To Replace Meritz Sec (008560 KS)
  • KOSPI 200: Special Changes & Rising Delinquency Ratios of Banks in Korea

KOSPI200 Ad Hoc Index Rebalance: DGB Financial (139130 KS) To Replace Meritz Sec (008560 KS)

By Brian Freitas


KOSPI 200: Special Changes & Rising Delinquency Ratios of Banks in Korea

By Douglas Kim

  • The Korea Exchange announced special changes in KOSPI 200 index.
  • Effective 3 April, Meritz Securities (008560 KS) will be excluded from the KOSPI 200 index and DGB Financial Group (139130 KS) will replace it. 
  • We think that there could be slightly better capital flow into DGB Financial as compared to other regional/smaller banks in Korea including BNK Financial

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Daily Brief Financials: Burgan Bank, First Pacific Co, CVC Credit Partners European Opportunities, Damac Properties Dubai Co, Malayan Banking and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Burgan Bank: Solid Performance in a Challenging Environment
  • Weekly Wrap – 24 Mar 2023
  • CVC Income & Growth – Equity-like return potential on senior secured debt
  • Damac: Underwhelming 4Q and Full-Year 2016 Results but Credit Story Intact
  • Maybank: Looking for Better 2H

Burgan Bank: Solid Performance in a Challenging Environment

By BOS Research

  • Burgan Bank is the second-largest commercial bank in Kuwait, with total assets of USD 24 billion as of December 2016, and it is the fourth largest bank in the country in terms of its locally based banking assets.
  • Kuwait Projects Co. (KIPCO), a preeminent Kuwaiti investment holding company controlled by the ruling family of Kuwait, owns 64.88% of Burgan Bank and has historically been supportive.
  • Thanks to its operations in Turkey, Iraq, Algeria, and Tunisia, the bank enjoys a geographically welldiversified revenue base. The Kuwaiti operations represented 59% of its revenues, while those in Turkey and Algeria accounted for 21% and 12% of revenues respectively.

Weekly Wrap – 24 Mar 2023

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

  1. Evergrande
  2. Vedanta Resources
  3. Sino-Ocean Group
  4. Lippo Karawaci
  5. Japfa Comfeed Indonesia

and more…


CVC Income & Growth – Equity-like return potential on senior secured debt

By Edison Investment Research

FY22 was the first year since its inception that CVC Income & Growth (CVC IG) saw a negative NAV total return (TR). Its euro and sterling share classes produced NAV total negative returns of c 8.3% and 6.8%, respectively, which compares with 3.3% and 1.9% negative TRs by the Credit Suisse Western European Leveraged Loan Index (CS WELLI) in euro and sterling terms, respectively. This was primarily the result of downward mark-to-market valuation adjustments (resulting in unrealised losses for CVC IG), driven by price declines in the European loan market amid higher risk aversion. Meanwhile, defaults in the European loan market remained low at 0.4% in 2022, based on the Morningstar European Leveraged Loan Index (with no defaults in CVC IG’s portfolio). Subsequently, European loan markets rebounded strongly in January and February 2023, leading to 6.7% and 6.9% returns for CVC IG’s euro and sterling share classes, respectively (therefore allowing CVC IG to almost fully recoup the 2022 loss).


Damac: Underwhelming 4Q and Full-Year 2016 Results but Credit Story Intact

By BOS Research

  • Established in 2002 by current Chairman Hussein Sajwani based on a predecessor company founded in 1992, Damac Real Estate Development Company (Damac) is a property developer focused primarily on the high-end residential segment (apartments and villas).
  • Since inception, the company has delivered approximately 17,900 units as of 31 December 2016, of which 90% were in Dubai.
  • Of the company’s roughly 44,000 units currently in progress (and 62 million square feet development pipeline) and in planning stages, roughly 96% are in the UAE with the remainder in Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Jordan, Bahrain, Lebanon and Iraq.

Maybank: Looking for Better 2H

By BOS Research

  • 1H18 net profit of MYR3.83bn grew 14% yoy, driven by higher interest income growth and continued cost management. Interim dividend of 25 sen consisting of 15 sen cash portion and 10 sen electable portion.
  • Group gross impaired loans ratio picked up in 2Q largely due to deterioration in Singapore corporate book (classified Hyflux group exposure of MYR1.95bn as impaired and provisioned ~RM315.1mn in 2Q).
  • Fair value reduced to MYR11 implying 1.6x p/b. FY18 targets were maintained. Focus ahead on continued costs controls and margins after taking cautious approach on liquidity in 1H.

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Daily Brief Financials: Rakuten Bank, Evergrande, Latitude Group Holdings, China Huarong Asset Management, UOB, Road King Infrastructure, USD, Wharf Holdings, China Life Insurance and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Rakuten Bank IPO – Recent Filings Updates and Quick Thoughts on Valuation
  • Rakuten Bank IPO: The Investment Case
  • Chinese Developers’ Overview – Shift in Sentiment but a Few Still Needs Some Equity
  • Latitude Group Holdings: Hack-Attack
  • China Huarong Expects to Post $4 Billion Loss for 2022
  • UOB: Better Relative Value
  • Road King – Earnings Flash – FY 2022 Results – Lucror Analytics
  • The State of Liquidity in Crypto Markets
  • Wharf Holdings: Unclear Prospects with Relatively Low Dividend Yield
  • China Life Insurance: Easing Headwinds in 2023

Rakuten Bank IPO – Recent Filings Updates and Quick Thoughts on Valuation

By Sumeet Singh

  • Rakuten Bank (5838 JP), the online banking arm of Rakuten (4755 JP), aims to raise up to around US$900m in its Japan listing in April 2023.
  • RB is the largest internet bank in Japan, by number of accounts. As of Dec 22, it had 13.3m deposit accounts with a total deposit base of JPY8.8tn.
  • In our earlier notes, we have looked at the company’s past performance. In this note, we talk about the updates from its recent filings.

Rakuten Bank IPO: The Investment Case

By Arun George

  • Rakuten Bank (5838 JP) is an online bank in Japan. It is looking to raise about US$870 million. The pricing is on 5 April and the listing is on 21 April. 
  • Rakuten Bank, wholly owned by Rakuten (4755 JP), is the largest Japanese internet bank as measured by the number of accounts and customer deposits.
  • The investment case rest on Rakuten Ecosystem’s competitive advantage, growth in accounts/deposits, robust loan book growth, rising margins and low NPL ratio.

Chinese Developers’ Overview – Shift in Sentiment but a Few Still Needs Some Equity

By Clarence Chu

  • Having first introduced the three red line guidance in late 2020, the government has begun shifting its stance, and relaxing some of its regulatory oversight.
  • In this note, we looked at recent news developments and how some larger developers fared against the three red lines criterion.
  • Of the large developers we looked at, there are a few names which stand out which could potentially do a capital raising given their financial standing. 

Latitude Group Holdings: Hack-Attack

By David Blennerhassett

  • On the morning of the 16 March, consumer finance play Latitude Group Holdings (LFS AU) announced what appeared to be a “sophisticated and malicious cyber-attack.” 
  • Shares were voluntarily suspended on the 20 March and were reinstated yesterday (22 March). 
  • Latitude reckons no compromised data has left its systems; but its review has uncovered evidence of large-scale information theft affecting customers (past and present) across Australia and New Zealand.

China Huarong Expects to Post $4 Billion Loss for 2022

By Caixin Global

  • China Huarong Asset Management Co. Ltd. expects to post a net loss of 27.6 billion yuan ($4 billion) for 2022.
  • Citing factors including volatility in the capital markets leading to declines in the value of some assets, business transition and the real estate industry slump.
  • The bad-debt manager said it adjusted its business structure last year, resulting in less nonperforming asset acquisition and restructuring and less revenue.

UOB: Better Relative Value

By BOS Research

  • 4Q22 results release on 23rd February 2023.
  • Expect NIM expansion of ~20bps quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) for 4Q22E, while FY23’s NIM guidance and updates on its Citi consumer business integration would be of focus.
  • Citi acquisition to add to full year NIMs and growth prospects from FY23, despite potential uptick in asset quality risks, which should be manageable.

Road King – Earnings Flash – FY 2022 Results – Lucror Analytics

By Leonard Law, CFA

Road King’s FY 2022 earnings were weaker than expected. The company posted a significant EBITDA decline, owing to a reduction in property deliveries amid the COVID-19 pandemic as well as a gross margin contraction. Looking ahead, we expect Road King’s FY 2023 contracted sales to remain weak, given the absence of land acquisitions in FY 2022 and the uncertain sales pipeline. This could pressure the company’s cash collections and internal cash generation. Positively, we expect Road King’s access to financing to remain sound, supported by its good quality asset base.

Overall, the company’s credit profile remains supported by its toll-road business, with cash dividends from the toll-road JVs covering 28% of FY 2022 interest expense. We expect recurring income from toll roads to increase in FY 2023, supported by the resumption of socio-economic activities in Mainland China and contribution from Road King’s newly acquired expressway in Indonesia. We believe the toll-road assets could be monetised in the event of tight liquidity, though bondholders are unlikely to have recourse to these assets in the event of debt restructuring (given the highly regulated nature of infrastructure assets).


The State of Liquidity in Crypto Markets

By Kaiko

  • Crypto markets are at their most volatile when liquidity is low.
  • Prices have less support to both the downside and the upside, which could explain BTC’s rapid +17% surge since the start of the month.
  • Liquidity has also become a hot topic in traditional financial markets as the banking sector reels from several high-profile collapses.

Wharf Holdings: Unclear Prospects with Relatively Low Dividend Yield

By BOS Research

  • Payout ratio rise, but expected dividend yield just around 1%
  • Mainland DP booked HK$2bn Impairment provision
  • Considering uncertainties in Mainland DP market and the construction process slowing down, we cut FY22-23 revenue booking in DP, thus cut revenue forecasts for 3-13% and net profit for 14-20%

China Life Insurance: Easing Headwinds in 2023

By BOS Research

  • More constructive outlook this year, despite near term impact on activities from current surge in Covid-19 infections as China re-opens.
  • Prefer H shares listing (2628 HK) where valuations remain more attractive despite recent rebound.
  • Fair value is lifted to CNY26.60.

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Daily Brief Financials: Rakuten Bank, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, PNB Housing Finance Ltd, Wharf Real Estate Investment, Uni-Asia Group, Nikkei 225, Agile Property Holdings, Heliad Equity Partners Gmbh, Coinshares International and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Rakuten Bank (5838 JP) – Another Net-Bank IPO, This One With TOPIX and Other Index Inclusions
  • Japan Banks: Markets Overreact to SVB’s Collapse
  • PNB Housing Finance Rights Issue – Finally Closing in on the Capital Raising
  • Wharf Real Estate Investment Co Ltd (1997 HK) – Pending Confirmation of 12% Multi-Month Uptrend
  • Smartkarma Corporate Webinar | Uni-Asia: Creating Alternative Investment Opportunities in Asia
  • SGX Nikkei 225 Climate PAB Futures: A Cleaner Way to Invest in Japan
  • Morning Views Asia:
  • Heliad Equity Partners – Enpal and Razor closing new funding rounds
  • CoinShares International – En troligen fördelaktig överlevare av “kryptovintern”

Rakuten Bank (5838 JP) – Another Net-Bank IPO, This One With TOPIX and Other Index Inclusions

By Travis Lundy


Japan Banks: Markets Overreact to SVB’s Collapse

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Following the collapse of SVB and Signature Bank last week, Japan’s big four banks have fallen by around 15% due to their exposure to US government bonds.
  • However, the Japanese banks have managed the interest rate risk far better than the collapsed US banks and therefore, we feel the price drop is unwarranted.
  • With Japan likely to scrap its zero rates policy, we think this could be a rather intriguing opportunity to make generous gains on the long side in Japan’s banking sector.

PNB Housing Finance Rights Issue – Finally Closing in on the Capital Raising

By Sumeet Singh

  • PNB Housing Finance Ltd (PNBHOUSI IN) (PHBHF) aims to raise up to US$300m via a rights issue in order to boost its capital base.
  • PNBHF is the housing finance arm of Punjab National Bank and is partly owned by Carlyle, with investments from General Atlantic as well.
  • In this note, we will talk about the rights issue and other deal dynamics.

Wharf Real Estate Investment Co Ltd (1997 HK) – Pending Confirmation of 12% Multi-Month Uptrend

By David Coloretti, CMT

  • At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
  • The 2018/2020 downtrend was broken in December 2022. Q1 2023 has delivered a correction and opportunity to enter the uptrend at improved entry levels.
  • March has the potential to complete a bullish monthly reversal pattern upon a month end close above 44.89 and confirm a likely multi-month 12% uptrend towards 50.67. 

Smartkarma Corporate Webinar | Uni-Asia: Creating Alternative Investment Opportunities in Asia

By Smartkarma Research

For our next Corporate Webinar, in partnership with the SGX, we are glad to welcome Uni-Asia’s Group CFO, Lim Kai Ching.

In the upcoming webinar, Kai Ching will share a short company presentation after which, he will engage in a fireside chat with Smartkarma Insight Provider, Osbert Tang, CFA . The Corporate Webinar will include a live Q&A session.

The Corporate Webinar will be hosted on Tuesday, 4 April 2023, 17:00 SGT.

About Uni-Asia

Uni-Asia Group Limited is an alternative investment group specialising in creating alternative investment opportunities and providing integrated services relating to such investments. The Group’s alternative investment targets mainly include dry bulk ships and properties. The Group also has extensive know-how and a network relating to such alternative investments and provides services relating to these investments. The two main alternative asset classes the Group focuses on are Shipping and Property.


SGX Nikkei 225 Climate PAB Futures: A Cleaner Way to Invest in Japan

By Brian Freitas

  • SGX has launched futures on the Nikkei Climate 1.5°C Target Index. The index is based on the Nikkei225 and uses screens to remove stocks that do not meet certain criteria.
  • The Nikkei Climate 1.5°C Target Index has a high degree of overlap and correlation and low tracking error with the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)
  • With increased interest in Climate/ESG investing, market participants can use the SGX-listed futures to get the same risk/reward characteristics as the Nikkei225 with atleast 50% lower Greenhouse Gas emission intensity.

Morning Views Asia:

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


    Heliad Equity Partners – Enpal and Razor closing new funding rounds

    By Edison Investment Research

    Heliad Equity Partners (HEP) reported a 3.6% decrease in net asset value (NAV) over the four-month period ending January 2023, bringing the NAV decrease since end 2021 to 45.4%. flatexDEGIRO (FTK) was the main valuation driver and remains HEP’s largest asset (38% of the portfolio). Meanwhile, HEP’s private portfolio saw successful funding rounds at Enpal and Razor Group in recent months. HEP recently issued 1.6m new shares, raising €7m in new capital to facilitate further investments. Given that the share issue was carried out at a 43.6% discount to end-January 2023 NAV, we calculate that it will result in a c 5% NAV per share dilution.


    CoinShares International – En troligen fördelaktig överlevare av “kryptovintern”

    By Edison Investment Research

    CoinShares International (CS) rapporterade en måttlig EBITDA-förlust på 6,5 miljoner GBP för FY22 (jämfört med en vinst på 121,1 miljoner GBP för FY21), som påverkades av “kryptovintern” (som följer på överflödet 2021), vilket kännetecknades av sjunkande tillgångspriser och högprofilerade konkurser. Oron förra året (framför allt kollapsen av FTX-börsen) ledde till att CS avvecklade sin spirande B2C-verksamhet och intog en mer försiktig hållning i sin division för infrastruktur för kapitalmarknader (CSCM). Trots detta är balansräkningen fortfarande sund med ett totalt eget kapital på 204,0 miljoner GBP i slutet av 2022 (jämfört med 200,9 miljoner GBP i slutet av 2021).


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    Daily Brief Financials: Onewo and more

    By | Daily Briefs, Financials

    In today’s briefing:

    • Onewo Space-Tech IPO Lock-Up – Company, Parent and Cornerstones Could Eventually Sell

    Onewo Space-Tech IPO Lock-Up – Company, Parent and Cornerstones Could Eventually Sell

    By Sumeet Singh

    • Onewo (2602 HK) (OST) had raised around US$730m in its Hong Kong IPO in Sep 2022. Its six-month lockup is set to expire soon.
    • OST is a property management service provider in China, primarily owned by China Vanke (H) (2202 HK)
    • In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.

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