Financials

• In NWD (17 HK): Edging Towards A Bailout, I mentioned New World Development (17 HK) was reportedly in negotiations with the Hong Kong Airport Authority on its 11 Skies project.
• In its FY26 results, ahead of the national holiday, NWD posted an HK$18.3bn writedown as part of an early termination agreement of the project with the AAHK.
• NWD was expected to pay rent on 11 Skies of at least HK$1.8bn/annum from 2028 through to 2066; therefore, there is some consolation here from the termination.

• Vivendi’s restated discount widened to 55.4%, while GBL moved to 27.6%; the former offers greater upside, but GBL retains the cleaner balance sheet and catalyst profile.
• Porsche SE’s discount held at 30.3%, but the final rejection of €5.4bn of investor claims removes a major legal tail risk without changing our NAV.
• Investor and Industrivärden remain around or above NAV, while Rio’s 23.1% Australian premium remains interesting mainly when the DLC spread moves towards historical extremes.

• The Rebranding of MBAV to Velos Acquisition I Corp (VLOS) after the ReserveOne collapse is a high-stakes sponsor gamble. Rather than liquidating in June 2026 after terminating its $1 billion digital asset merger, the sponsor (CC Capital’s MI7 affiliate) chose to rebrand, extend the deadline to August 2, 2027, and convert all 7,187,500 Class B founder shares to Class A shares to eliminate the traditional promote overhang.
• Redemptions have severely depleted the trust, shifting the transaction math entirely toward structured PIPEs. Following the July 2026 extraordinary general meeting, massive redemptions of approximately $110.2 million shrunk the trust from its original $287.5 million post-IPO high to exactly $177,286,938. Any future transaction will require a structured, highly negotiated PIPE or convertible note facility to meet minimum cash closing conditions.
• The regulatory hurdle under SEC Subpart 1600 of Regulation S-K has fundamentally altered the S-4 filing timeline. The mutual termination with ReserveOne was driven not just by digital asset market volatility, but by the compounding friction of SEC disclosure mandates, specifically the target co-registrant liability, board advisory determinations, and intensive auditing requirements for underlying digital asset holdings.

• Laris Growth Acquisition Corp. is a blank check company formed to effect a business combination, focusing on high-growth deep-tech businesses with compelling valuation arbitrage and need for scaled growth capital.
• The company focuses on high-growth deep-tech businesses in Quantum Computing, Next-Generation Space, and Intelligent Autonomous Systems across Europe, Australia/New Zealand, and the United States.
• As of May 31, 2026, the company reported $3,062 in working capital and shareholders’ equity, but public shareholders face approximately 108.7% dilution upon closing.

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• Arr Planner’s affordable luxury positioning continues to drive strong growth amid a competitive homebuilding market, with record company-wide H1 order value.
• Gross margin continued to expand on higher per-unit selling prices across both custom-built and development homes, supported by stronger product appeal and brand image.
• With the broader homebuilding industry raising prices, the Company has room to lift unit prices.

• Strategic Pivot to Direct Private Equity: Groupe Bruxelles Lambert (GBL) is actively transitioning from a passive, listed-asset holding company to a direct, private equity-style control investor. This is led by ex-KKR EMEA Chairman Johannes Huth, who assumed executive leadership in May 2025. To fund this pivot, GBL has executed aggressive portfolio simplification, winding down its GBL Capital funds program (raising €1.7 billion through LP-led secondaries) and divesting its third-party asset management division, Sienna Investment Managers.
• Holdco Discount and Family Friction: GBL trades at a persistent ~31% discount to its €13.1 billion net asset value (NAV). While management targets the discount via structural simplification and an eighth share buyback program (€598.9 million envelope), the dual-family control (Desmarais and Frère) enforces rigid structural boundaries. Cross-border capital flow tax leakages (such as optimizing through Luxembourg-based vehicles like Serena S.à r.l.) and a conservative loan-to-value (LTV) framework cap the speed and agility of GBL’s capital recycling.
• Execution Risks in Mega-Deals: GBL’s push into direct private assets is meeting stiff market friction. Its joint €10.7 billion take-private bid for Recordati with CVC Capital Partners at €51.29 per share has faced intense public pushback from activist investor Palliser Capital, which demands at least €60 per share. This highlight’s GBL’s vulnerability to valuation inflation and minority-shareholder resistance as it enters large-scale private equity bidding wars without the deep operational specialist benches of pure-play competitors.

• High-Compounding Nordic Industrial Serial Acquirer: Tången Industrikapital AB (publ) has established a scalable decentralized acquisition platform focused on high-barrier B2B niches across Regulatory Expertise, Service Solutions, and Industrial Technology, generating a 2023–2025 net sales CAGR of 44.8% to reach SEK 1,595.2m.
• Substantial Margin Expansion and Cash Generation: Pricing power in mission-critical and compliance-led end markets expanded EBITDA margins from 8.97% in 2023 to 13.33% in 2025, driving net income up 259% to SEK 103.2m and delivering SEK 169.8m in Free Cash Flow to Equity (FCFE) in FY2025.
• Strong Balance Sheet Backing Disciplined M&A: Following its mid-2026 Nasdaq Stockholm listing at SEK 67.00 per share (currently trading at SEK 81.20), Tången maintains a robust capital position to execute its steady acquisition cadence of 4 to 5 accretive add-ons annually while avoiding over-leveraged roll-up risks.

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• A perfect 100 GRESB score and approved science-based targets lower the cost of capital, making the portfolio a magnet for SFDR Article 8 and 9 institutional funds.
• Transitioning to a USD 100bn AUM fund manager unlocks massive value, supported by a USD 650m share buyback exploiting a steep net asset value discount.
• Exiting the build-to-sell segment de-risks cash flows and accelerates capital returns, while providing a hard yield floor through a secure US cents 25.0 base dividend.

• Bankwest’s shift to digital and ongoing corporate streamlining are defensive moves designed to preserve margins, but their real cost-saving benefits are slow to materialize. The A$45 million Bankwest digital transition provision in FY25 and consecutive rounds of technology redundancies in 2026 (averaging over 1,100 roles) illustrate that restructuring is a continuous, survival-driven process rather than a one-off corporate victory.
• The APRA transition away from Additional Tier 1 (AT1) capital starting January 1, 2027, will raise CBA’s minimum CET1 floor to 10.50%, tightening capital flexibility and putting pressure on Return on Equity (ROE). While S&P Global’s May 2026 rating update affirmed CBA’s fundamental capital strength, replacing cheaper AT1 hybrids with more expensive common equity and Tier 2 subordinated debt will structurally compress net ROE.
• CBA’s executive KPI framework creates a structural tension between defending mortgage market share and maintaining Net Interest Margin (NIM). Despite growing its home loan portfolio to A$749 billion in FY26, asset pricing competition compressed NIM by 3 basis points to 2.05%. Management’s current bias is to protect the margin front-book via proprietary channels over broker-originated volume, reflecting a disciplined refusal to buy unprofitable market share.

• Japan Post Insurance (7181 JP) is executing a structural profitability turnaround, with FY2026 net income expanding 36.7% YoY to JPY 168.8B (3-year CAGR of 20.03%), lifting net profit margins to 5.89% amid widening mortality margins and expanding domestic investment yields.
• The macroeconomic regime shift characterized by Bank of Japan policy normalization and rising long-term JGB yields provides a sustainable tailwind to portfolio reinvestment yields and Embedded Value (EEV), easing negative spread burdens on legacy books.
• Trading at a deep valuation discount of ~0.40x P/B and an estimated P/EV under 0.50x, backed by zero debt leverage, high regulatory solvency, and strong dividend growth (5-year CAGR of 24.57%), the risk-reward profile is highly favorable for value-oriented institutional investors.

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• Velos Acquisition I Corp. is a Cayman Islands blank check company formed to effect a business combination with one or more businesses.
• The company was formed to effect a business combination and has until August 2, 2027, to complete it.
• The company reported a working capital deficit of $8,049,671 as of June 30, 2026, and management has substantial doubt about its ability to continue as a going concern.

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• In this edition: • AkzoNobel | completes Pakistan exit at 14x EV/EBITDA • Van Lanschot Kempen | expands fiduciary platform through Aegon AM transfer • PostNL | faces new competitive threat as Bundle targets business-mail volumes • PostNL | multi-year contract for the delivery of the majority of government mail

• POSCO’s pre-market block sale of its entire 2.7% stake (20.28 million shares) at 33,360 won per share on October 1, 2026, successfully unwinds a decade-long strategic cross-shareholding. While it removes a structural overhang, it has triggered immediate downward pressure on the stock, falling over 4% today.
• Woori’s diversification strategy is materially shifting its earnings profile, with non-banking net income contribution climbing from 7% in Q2 2025 to 22% in Q2 2026. This growth is anchored by the dual acquisition of Tongyang Life and ABL Life for a combined 1.54 trillion won, which is slated to culminate in a merged 55 trillion won life insurer in the second half of 2027.
• Tight regulatory constraints are forcing major operational adjustments. Despite the Financial Services Commission (FSC) expanding the annual household loan growth target from 1.5% to 3% in August 2026, Woori Bank has had to implement aggressive self-imposed caps—such as slashing monthly mortgage lending per branch to 1 billion won—to maintain compliance while stabilizing its CET1 ratio at 13.71% as of Q2 2026.

• Market Leadership and Structural Moat: Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) occupies the premier position within the Australian banking sector, anchored by an industry-leading ~25% retail mortgage market share and ~27% household deposit base, which generates durable low-cost funding advantages and sustainably higher Return on Equity (~14%) relative to domestic peers.
• Resilient Operational Execution Amid Sector Headwinds: CBA delivered solid FY26 revenue of A$70.5bn (+0.9% YoY) and net income of A$10.9bn (+7.4% YoY), demonstrating disciplined loan pricing, proactive operating cost management, and robust credit quality despite competitive mortgage discounting and elevated deposit costs across the industry.
• Valuation Premium Demands Continued Execution: Trading at ~23.2x forward P/E and ~3.2x P/B, CBA commands a historic premium over peers (Westpac, NAB, and ANZ trading at ~15-19x P/E and ~1.1-1.7x P/B); while supported by superior digital scale and pre-provision earnings stability, the multiple leaves minimal cushion for macroeconomic or asset quality shocks.

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• What you need to know: • Kobo reported diamond drill results from 14 additional holes at its 100%-owned Kossou Gold Project in Côte d’Ivoire.
• • Six holes were completed at the Road Cut Zone, headlined by KDD0191 with 1.94 g/t Au over 19.0m, while step-outs extended the system north.
• • Eight holes tested the Kadie Zone and returned high-grade intercepts like 9.78 g/t Au over 2.0m and 9.26 g/t Au over 2.0m.

• POSCO Holdings (005490 KS) is looking to raise US$503m in a secondary sale of its shares in Woori Financial Group (316140 KS).
• This is a long-awaited cleanup sale by POSCO Holdings (005490 KS).
• In this note, we will run the deal through our ECM framework.

• It is not surprising that investors compare JustCo to WeWork, as both share the same business model: sign a long lease with a landlord, spend on renovation, rent out workstations on shorter and flexible terms, and earn the rental spread.

• There are inherent mismatches of fixed cost versus flexible revenue, long liability versus short visibility.

• The flexi-office business model carries high operating leverage, given that its costs are mostly fixed.

• The Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) has been trending up for 3 weeks (including this week), our model flagged it as ‘overbought’. Wall Street/Tokyo brokerages maintain medium-to-long-term bullish trajectories
• Index rebalance will be official from October 1st: added Capcom, Kokusai Electric, and JX Advanced Metals, removing Archion, Konica Minolta, and Kanadevia.
• The price-weighted index has been tilted further toward semiconductors, advanced manufacturing, tech growth, driving institutional flows into chip suppliers. Higher yields and potential further rate hikes present persistent headwind risk.

• HDFC Bank ownership has fallen from 51.4% to 40.6% of active funds since December, with $3.2bn of outflows and holdings halving to $9.3bn.
• The selling spans every mandate: Asia ex-Japan and ACWI ex-USA ownership both fell 17.3 points, with net sellers dominating GEM and Global funds too.
• A cooling on India amid the AI trade likely triggered it, but investors staying in India are switching to ICICI Bank and SBI.

• With 100% occupancy in Tower 3 and Tower 4, Nesco continues to generate steady revenue of INR 98cr+ and EBIT of INR 80cr+ per quarter.
• Q1 tends to be seasonally weak for exhibitions (BEC), thus QoQ comparison is not relevant. YoY BEC revenue and EBIT grew 10% YoY to INR 44cr+ and INR 22cr+, respectively.
• The Foods business continues to maintain its growth momentum with revenue up 20%+. Work has commenced on 4 sites on Hyderabad-Vishakapatnam expressway for wayside amenities.

• A long tail of earnings growth – Although investor attention on Kyoto FG centers on its significant equity holdings in Kyoto-based companies and the unwinding of those positions we believe the more important story is the improving operating trend at the underlying bank which we think is underappreciated and offers a long tail of earnings growth that is unique among Japan’s regional banks as its fixed-rate loan book gradually reprices.
• The equity portfolio is an additional kicker, providing shareholder return optionality well above peers as it is monetized, and together we think they warrant a premium valuation for what the Bank offers.
• Conservative targets, strong start – The new MTP targets net income of ¥90bn+ by FY3/29 (~2x FY3/26 excluding the gain on Nintendo shares), alongside ROE of 8%+, OHR in the 40% range, ¥300bn+ of shareholding reduction, and a total payout of 50%+.

• Prime Target: Heiwa’s JPY 171bn market cap perfectly fits activist accumulation parameters, unlocking trapped capital to force aggressive balance sheet reallocation and robust ROE expansion.
• TSE Reform Tailwind: Mandated capital efficiency has already driven a massive JPY 1bn buyback and 6.7m share cancellation, propelling ROE to 9.0% and signaling further unwinds.
• De-Risked Entry: A surging JPY 98 per share dividend floor offsets macroeconomic rate hike risks, offering a highly asymmetric risk-reward profile ahead of imminent governance catalysts.

• Regulated Market Infrastructure Provider: Hydra X operates as a licensed digital asset custodian and tokenisation platform bridging traditional finance with blockchain ecosystems. The company leverages its Capital Markets Services licence from the Monetary Authority of Singapore to deliver institutional-grade exchange technology and secure settlement services across the Asia-Pacific region.
• High-Margin Regulatory Moat: The business model combines recurring software licensing with asset-based custody fees, .yielding a strong gross margin of 82.7% for the 2024 financial year. This asset-light financial profile is protected by formidable barriers to entry, as the rigorous regulatory approval process and deep institutional workflow integrations create substantial customer switching costs.
• Operating Leverage Still to Be Proven: Compliance and administrative overhead scaled faster than revenue through FY24, producing a US$1.9m net loss and reducing cash and cash equivalents to US$3.4m by year end. FY25 showed early improvement, with revenue up 34% and the loss before tax narrowing to US$0.8m, but the company remains loss-making and dependent on its cash reserves and further equity funding.

• The strategic metals and gold-focused exploration and development Company drew attention this morning to new agreement between the US, Denmark and Greenland to strengthen defence and security cooperation in Greenland and the wider Arctic and North Atlantic region.
• Arkadian’s 51%-owned Motzfeldt Critical Metals Project is close to the proposed US defence base at Narsarsuaq, and the Company notes that future investment in regional transport and logistics could support Motzfeldt’s development.
• Narsarsuaq was established as a US military base in 1941 and used in that capacity until 1958. 

• A consortium comprising CSI Properties (497 HK), Asia Standard International Group (129 HK), and Cheung Chung-kiu, applied to the Town Planning Board to redevelop “Harbourside HQ”  into two residential towers.
• The Planning Department previously indicated no objection to the application. However, Hong Kong’s Town Planning Board rejected the proposal last Friday.
• Vacancy rates for HK commercial properties remain elevated. 25% for Harbourside HQ. Yet, rezoning sets a precedent that cannot easily be reversed (as and) when economic conditions rebound.

• NIFTY 50 rebalance will be effective on 30 Sep 2026 before market open, with one ADD and one DELETE.
• BSE fell 13.9% and Wipro fell 12.9% over the bridge window to 28 Sep 2026, with one session left before implementation.
• Historically, ADDs and DELETEs with a negative bridge mostly gained in the first implementation week.

• Western Union’s acquisition of International Money Express faces a widened spread, with California’s approval pending, impacting merger arbitrage.
• Priority Technology Holdings’ take-private offer increased to $8.05/share, with a 3% remaining spread, following a definitive agreement.
• OFX Group’s A$1/share offer by Equals sees a 68% spread, with financing doubts and extended exclusivity to October 30.

• Asymmetric Trade Setup: Initiate a tactical long in Sino Land (0083.HK) before the October 29, 2026 ex-dividend date to capture VWAP-anchored price stability driven by the sponsor’s structural scrip election.
• Float Compression Catalyst: Tsim Sha Tsui Properties consistently elects scrip on its 58.11% stake, locking up massive equity, tightening public float liquidity, and engineering a highly predictable price support floor.
• Fortress Balance Sheet: Unlike highly levered peers, Sino Land boasts HKD 59.07 bn in cash, providing an impenetrable macroeconomic shield that virtually eliminates downside credit and refinancing risks.

• Bullish call positioning defined the week of September 21.
• Extreme low put-call ratios hit several names across autos, utilities, and financials.
• Yet bearish hedging surged in equal measure elsewhere – earnings-linked put buying and sector-level stress signals kept the week far from one-directional.

• Captive Distribution Moat with Under-Penetrated Base: SBI Funds Management (SBI FM) captures more than 96% of mutual fund assets mobilized through State Bank of India’s 23,265 branches. However, only 2% of SBI’s 530 million banking clients are converted, representing a massive domestic growth runaway that insulates SBI FM from any immediate ‘open architecture’ threats.
• Structural Revenue Mismatch and Regulatory Pressure: While SBI FM’s overall average AUM has crossed ₹13 trillion, over half of this is low-margin PMS/advisory (including the EPFO mandate) or passive products. The active equity book (₹5.32 trillion) generates 75.3% of total fee income. The transition from the old TER framework to the SEBI Base Expense Ratio (BER) model on April 1, 2026, has squeezed active equity margins by 10 to 15 basis points.
• Distribution Muscle Masking Performance Challenges: Performance is a critical concern, as 33.3% of SBI’s active equity schemes (9 out of 26) sat in the bottom quartile over three years as of March 31, 2026. Growth is disproportionately driven by parent brand trust and the extensive Beyond Top-30 (B-30) footprint rather than consistent, alpha-generating investment performance.

• Short sellers made decisive moves this week ending September 26.
• Energy refining ETF CRAK saw SI hit 36.8% of float – up 38% in seven days.
• Mortgage REIT RWT saw the sharpest build, with SI surging 215% to 22.1% of float as borrow dried up.

• Puradelta Lestari (DMAS IJ) Industrial revenue surged 218% YoY to Rp1,744 Bn in 1H26, driven by data-center transactions that reached Rp1,676.6 Bn, or 93.6% of total sales.
• Sojitz Corp.’s 25% ownership provides strategic context to GIIC’s positioning, while DMAS is becoming an indirect beneficiary of Indonesia’s data-center build-out. 
• We test, through a forensic examination of DMAS’s land, recurring-income and balance-sheet economics, whether the stock can still support more than 25% upside after the market’s data-center repricing.

Key points (machine generated)

• Globe-ing Inc. reported record revenue of ¥11,512 million and profit of ¥3,051 million for FY5/26, marking increases of 39.4% and 72.6% YoY, respectively.
• The company announced its first dividend of ¥16.1 per share, with plans to raise it to ¥35.6 per share for FY5/27, targeting a 30% payout ratio.
• Globe-ing forecasts approximately 40% revenue growth for FY5/27, focusing on JI consulting, AI transformation, and investment/M&A, aiming for ¥120 billion in consolidated revenue by FY5/31.

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• Bitcoin closed near $84,449 (CoinGecko, Sept 27 close), hitting an eight-month high above $86,500 on Monday.

• BTC ETFs turned positive for 2026 after $2.8B in inflows (Sep 18 – Sep 25) erased a $5.8B YTD deficit. Net inflows are now +800M for the year.

• BitMEX permanently shut down on Sept 23 after twelve years. The exchange that invented crypto perpetual futures closed its books.

• Ingenia Communities (INA AU)‘s share price declined ~13% as shareholders didn’t take kindly to its 26th August cash/scrip Offer for real estate developer Peet Ltd (PPC AU).
• Warburg Pincus saw an opportunity, and pitched a A$4.75/share NBIO, by way of a Scheme, on the 7th September (rejected); then A$5.05/share on the 21st September (also rejected).
• A third NBIO, at A$5.25/share, was announced this morning. Ingenia is assessing terms. As with the two previous bids, Warburg’s Offer is conditional on terminating the Peet Scheme.

• FnGuide Inc (064850 KS) announced a significant improvement in its new Corporate Value-Up program. The changes are meaningful and likely to have positive impact on share price.
• FnGuide also plans on share buyback and cancellation of 15 billion won over the next three years (2026 – 2028).
• FnGuide raised total shareholder returns to 40% or higher from 2026 to 2028. Previously, FnGuide did not explicitly mention the total shareholder returns, other than the 25%+ dividend payout ratio.

• Mr Hung’s offer for Get Nice (64 HK) is HK$2.00 in cash plus a HK$2.00 special dividend. The gross spread is now 3.6%, and the vote is on 26 October.
• Mr Hung holds 51.67%. Blocking the scheme requires 4.83% of outstanding shares (10% of disinterested holders), and no disinterested shareholder appears to be close to that.
• The IFA says the offer is fair and reasonable. It justifies the 62.5% NAV discount by past trading discounts and the cost of selling assets. This is a done deal.

• Ingenia Communities (INA AU) received a revised Warburg Pincus proposal at A$5.25, a 4.0% premium to the prior A$5.05 offer and 22.7% to the undisturbed price. The Board is assessing it.
• The offer implies only a modest control premium to sell-side price targets and peer multiples, but a third outright rejection would be hard to justify amid mounting shareholder pressure. 
• The offer lapses on Friday 2 October unless the Board grants due diligence. I expect engagement, and no “best and final” wording leaves room for a higher bid. 

• Singapura Finance (“SF”) is a Singapore-based financial services firm that offers loans for both consumers and corporates.

• Other services include savings and fixed deposits.

• The firm has seven branches located in populous areas to serve its client base that’s spread throughout Singapore.

• Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.
• Highlights: In India, currently three pair trade opportunities persist across two sectors.
• Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.

• American Financial Group reported its second quarter 2026 results with a 32% increase in core net operating earnings per share to $2.82, driven by strong underwriting margins, premium growth, and higher net investment income.
• The company recorded an annualized core operating return on equity of 19.2%.
• Its $17.1 billion investment portfolio benefited from a 23% year-over-year increase in net investment income, boosted by improved alternative investment returns, which generated an annualized return of approximately 7.1% for the quarter compared to 1.2% in the prior year.

• Over five sessions, 60 director interests and substantial shareholdings were filed, including 23 acquisitions and two disposals by directors/CEOs.
• Seatrium launched a new S$200 million Share Buyback Programme, funded from existing cash, doubling the previous programme.
• Alan Goh of Katrina Group sold 12.6 million shares, reducing his interest to 76.7%, with BYD By 1826 acquiring 5%.

• On the 17th July, Hung Hon Man, Get Nice (64 HK)‘s chairman (& founder) offered HK$4/share, comprising a HK$2 consideration + HK$2 special dividend. Terms appear not to be final.
• Terms are also low-balled. A 17.6% premium to undisturbed. And a 62.8% discount to NAV. However, minorities are indifferent when perusing past AGM voting. 
• The Scheme Booklet is now out, with a 26th October Scheme Meeting, and expected payment on the 16th November. The IFA (Veda Capital) concluded “fair and reasonable“. 

• Instone Real Estate Group SE is a German residential-development company listed on Deutsche Börse’s Xetra market (ticker INS)
• Acquiring land and developing multi-family and mixed-use residential projects across major German cities — Frankfurt, Hamburg, Leipzig and the wider Rhine-Main region
• Then selling completed units to retail buyers and institutional investors alike.

• Murakami’s City Index Fifth has launched a JPY125,000-per-unit tender (a 16.6% premium to the last close) for Sankei Real Estate (2972 JP). That matches Tosei/GIC’s failed offer, which Murakami blocked.
• Murakami’s terms are weaker than Tosei/GIC: 1.10x P/NAV versus 1.15x, no price negotiation, a neutral board, no majority-of-minority condition and a vaguer commitment on rival bids.
• The squeeze-out vote relies on low turnout and passives. However, the 25.42% minimum looks reachable (24.66% tendered last time, plus 10.32% irrevocables). 

• Edelweiss’ asset management businesses continue to scale up rapidly and lead the profitability. The Alternatives business (EAAA) is on track to complete its IPO by Q3FY27.
• The insurance businesses are on track to breakeven during FY27 as per the earlier guidance. Motor insurance business in particular is scaling up rapidly for Edelweiss.
• With consistent scaling up and value unlocking, Edelweiss is making the right moves. At current valuation, an investment in it has potential to double over a holding period of 3Y.

• Crédit Agricole already owns 29.3% of Banco BPM, leaving only a modest gap to the roughly one-third share it is reportedly expected to receive in a break-up.
• A plausible split would leave UniCredit with most of BPM’s Commercial and CIB businesses, while CA takes Agos, insurance links and selected branches or customers.
• We value a joint UniCredit/CA transaction at €18.50/share versus BAMI at €16.40; our probability-weighted value is €16.87.

• Australia’s ASIC releases the aggregated short position data four business days after the reporting day. Data in this insight is up to 21st September, published on the 25th September.
• The largest industry net increase in the past week was A$0.3bn into “Diversified Metals”; the largest industry net decrease was A$0.3bn out of “Industrial REITs“. Net shorts increased A$0.6bn week-on-week.
• Companies mentioned in this regular weekly report include: NAB (NAB AU), Codan (CDA AU), The Lottery Corporation (TLC AU), Minerals 260 (MI6 AU), andbSunrise Energy Metals (SRL AU).

• Kolte Patil after going through a transition phase post the ownership and leadership change, after onboarding of Blackstone as a strategic shareholder, is on track to perform strong in FY27.
• As the rumors had suggested and as we had highlighted in our previous note, the new CEO, Hrishikesh Parandekar, joined effective Aug 24 2026.
• Led by the new leadership and organizational structure, Kolte Patil is seeing accelerated growth across all fronts – pre-sales and launches, deliveries and business development.

• Context: The Credit Corp (CCP AU) vs. Magellan Financial (MFG AU) price ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
• Highlight: Going long Magellan Financial (MFG AU) and short Credit Corp (CCP AU) targets a 13% return.
• Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

• Sankei Real Estate’s (2972 JP) new ¥125,000 per unit tender offer by Murakami-backed City Index Fifth is a face-saving restructuring exit after Murakami blocked the identical Tosei/GIC bid in May 2026. The transaction represents a negotiated compromise where the asset manager agreed to liquidate the problematic Fukuoka Green Building for ¥5.5 billion to clear the path for privatization.
• The board’s support of the tender offer, while maintaining a neutral recommendation to unitholders, is a defensive posture under METI’s Fair M&A Guidelines. Because the asset manager, Sankei Building Asset Management, remains deeply aligned with the sponsor, Fuji Media Holdings (FMH), the board could not actively recommend tendering without facing potential lawsuits over the underlying value of the sponsor’s concurrent ¥1 trillion restructuring sale process.
• Retail broker non-participation and administrative friction present a major technical risk to the transaction’s completion. Since the tender offer is managed strictly through a designated lead broker, minority retail unitholders face significant friction in transferring units across non-cooperating brokerages, which historic data shows can lead to a 5% to 10% non-response rate that threatens the 45% minimum threshold.

• The $1.35 billion pre-tax software capitalization write-down in 1H26 is a strategic “kitchen-sinking” exercise disguised as an AI-driven policy change. While management attributes it to AI making software redundant faster, the primary driver is a balance sheet clean-up by the new executive team to lower the capitalization threshold from $5 million to $20 million, bringing NAB in line with peer practices and resetting the run-rate cost base.
• The formal cancellation of AUSTRAC’s Enforceable Undertaking on July 25, 2025, marks a massive regulatory milestone, but run-rate compliance costs will remain elevated. The implementation of the AML/CTF Amendment Act 2024 (phasing in during 2026) shifts the monitoring burden to the banks to oversee “Tranche 2” professional services clients, offsetting any projected cost savings from the EU exit.
• The APRA Additional Tier 1 (AT1) phase-out commencing January 1, 2027, will require NAB to replace 1.5% of its capital structure with 0.25% CET1 and 1.25% Tier 2. With $9.0 billion in outstanding hybrids as of January 2026, the transition will create a minor funding cost benefit but will act as a structural drag on Return on Equity (ROE) due to the higher Common Equity Tier 1 requirements.

• Special Purpose Vehicle Structure: Northern Star Investment Corp. III is a Delaware-incorporated blank check company that raised $400 million in its March 2021 initial public offering, targeting high-growth enterprises within direct-to-consumer (D2C) and digitally disruptive e-commerce sectors.
• Financial Profile & Capital Dynamics: Operating as a pre-combination vehicle, the company generates zero commercial revenues; net income fluctuations ($16.76M in 2022 vs. -$1.23M in 2021) are driven by non-cash warrant liability fair-value adjustments and trust interest income against recurring administrative cash burn (-$0.93M operating cash flow in 2022).
• Risk-Adjusted Institutional Proposition: While the cash held in trust provides downside floor protection near nominal NAV, macro de-SPAC headwinds, elevated redemption risks across the sector, and tight statutory timelines create significant execution friction for completing an accretive acquisition.

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• The proposed joint UniCredit/Crédit Agricole break-up bid for Banco BPM faces massive execution friction. Splitting a commercial bank’s balance sheet, treasury, and IT systems (representing a 1/3 asset carve-out for Crédit Agricole) is structurally unprecedented in the Italian market and would destroy significant scale synergies, though it serves as a critical tool to bypass antitrust limits in Lombardy.
• Regulatory capital treatment remains exceptionally hawkish under the SSM. The ECB’s rejection of the “Danish Compromise squared” for Banco BPM’s €1.8 billion acquisition of Anima in 2025—which triggered a 240 basis point capital hit—signals that any combined entity will face strict capital deduction of asset management goodwill, limiting the financial feasibility of cash-heavy premiums.
• Giuseppe Castagna and the Board have high defensive leverage via Rome’s Golden Power rules. The Italian government’s willingness to impose operational conditions (such as Russian exit timelines and loan-to-deposit limits) remains a powerful deterrent against hostile or unaligned takeovers, forcing any successful consolidator to align closely with national political and SME lending agendas.

• In January, Tosei Corp (8923 JP) and GIC launched a TOB on Sankei Real Estate (2972 JP), the REIT of sponsor Sankei Building, a subsidiary of targeted/beleaguered Fuji Media (4676). 
• Murakami-San bought a large stake in the REIT, first sending the price up, then blocking the deal. A Fukuoka-based building was written down hard, a dividend promised was revoked.
• Post deal-fail, REITs fell as interest rates rose. Murakami-san negotiated with the REIT and its Special Committee. The Fukuoka Green Building is sold.

• Zurich Insurance Group (ZURN SW) has agreed to acquire Beazley (BEZ LN) in an all-cash transaction, with Beazley shareholders receiving 1,310 pence per share.
• Nuveen has agreed to acquire Schroders (SDR LN) in an all-cash transaction, with the two deals expected to become effective at the same time on October 1, 2026.
• BEZ and SDR will be removed from UK and European indices, with significant passive demand expected for their intra-quarter replacements in UK Top 100 and Europe Top 600.

• The California DFPI suspension on August 13, 2026, presents a severe risk of transaction failure before the final November 10, 2026, outside date, as Western Union may leverage regulatory hurdles and IMXI’s deteriorating financials to seek a price cut below the agreed $16.00 per share.
• Regulatory concessions in New York and the potential for similar terms in California structurally impair the deal’s synergy model, with the NY Attorney General’s price caps and retail footprint requirements directly undermining Western Union’s target of $30 million in annual run-rate cost synergies.
• IMXI’s standalone financial profile exhibits a stark divergence between cash-flow resilience and structural volume deterioration, characterized by strong first-half 2026 operating cash flow of $75.4 million used to aggressively pay down debt, contrasted against an 18.6% year-over-year revenue contraction in Q2 2026.

• Manulife Financial Corporation reported second quarter 2026 results reflecting a continuation of its strategic execution and diversified business model.
• The company achieved a 21% year-over-year increase in annualized premium equivalent (APE) sales across all insurance segments, fueled by strong performances in Asia—including Hong Kong, Singapore, and Japan—and Canada.
• Notably, Hong Kong’s sales growth stood at 37%, supported by the strength of its domestic franchise, which comprises approximately 75% of sales year-to-date.

• Markel Corporation reported its second quarter and first half results for 2026 reflecting mixed performance across its diversified business segments.
• Consolidated operating revenues, excluding net investment gains, were flat compared to the prior year, standing at $4.0 billion for the quarter and $7.6 billion for the first six months.
• Operating income including net investment gains increased to $1.6 billion for the quarter from $1.1 billion a year ago, though adjusted operating income—which excludes investment gains and amortization—declined to $436 million from $578 million in the prior-year quarter.

• Old Republic International reported second quarter 2026 consolidated pretax operating income of $238 million, down from $268 million in the prior year period.
• The combined ratio increased slightly to 95.3% from 93.6% a year ago, reflecting a modest decline in underwriting profitability.
• Return on beginning equity was 12.1%, and book value per share, including dividends, rose 7.2% for the first half of the year.

• The Warburg Pincus/Ingenia Standoff Highlights Business Model Friction: The conflict over Ingenia’s proposed $992.3 million acquisition of Peet Ltd centers on a fundamental asset-class mismatch. Warburg wants to build a pure-play, high-multiple, land-lease yield vehicle, whereas Peet’s masterplanned community (MPC) pipeline represents a highly cyclical, long-lead-time land development model that private equity considers too high-beta.
• Flagstone JV is the Transaction’s Funding Linchpin: The agreement to sell a 49.9% stake in the Flagstone City project to Brown-Neaves Investments at a $615 million enterprise value is critical. It acts as an off-balance-sheet deleveraging mechanism that releases cash to fund the $0.68 per share cash component of the acquisition without blowing out the merged entity’s leverage.
• Planning and Environmental Delays Punish Dormant Land Holdings: Across key markets like Western Australia and Victoria, state-level environmental (EPBC Act) and precinct planning bottlenecks add 12 to 18 months to development timelines. With Peet’s weighted average cost of debt sitting at 7.7%, these delays create a material drag on capital returns that can only be offset by aggressive price growth.

• Primerica, Inc. reported its second quarter results for 2026, demonstrating continued strength in its dual-segment business model comprising a stable Insurance segment and a rapidly growing Investments segment.
• The company saw an 8% year-over-year increase in adjusted operating revenues and an 11% rise in adjusted net operating income, primarily driven by the Investments segment, where revenues and pretax income grew 21% and 31%, respectively.
• Adjusted operating earnings per share increased 17% to $6.41, benefiting partly from a tax equity investment that lowered income tax expense by $4.6 million.

• Progressive Corporation’s recent investor presentation emphasized its strong position and growth prospects within the U.S. personal auto and property insurance markets, underpinned by its strategic focus on servicing diverse customer segments.
• The company highlighted its achievement as the largest U.S. personal auto writer by direct premiums and its successful penetration of lower-tier segments (Sams, Dianes, Wrights), noting that its market share in the higher-value Robinsons segment—customers bundling both auto and home insurance—is significantly lower, indicating a substantial growth opportunity.
• Progressive’s auto insurance franchise benefits from its data-driven segmentation and underwriting discipline, allowing it to grow roughly twice as fast as the market over the past decade while maintaining a combined ratio seven points better than industry averages.

• Radian Group’s second quarter 2026 results reflect a transformative phase after its acquisition of Inigo, marking a strategic shift from a primarily U.S.-focused mortgage insurer to a global multiline specialty insurer.
• The company executed significant divestitures of non-core businesses, including real estate services and title services, in line with its strategy to simplify its portfolio and concentrate on insurance operations.
• This repositioning has materially expanded its product mix and geographic reach while reducing organizational complexity.

• ACCC RAC Block Signals Consolidation End-Game: The ACCC’s second rejection of IAG’s AUD 1.35 billion acquisition of RAC Insurance on September 23, 2026, represents a structural ceiling for IAG’s domestic expansion, rendering their planned “public benefits appeal” highly unlikely to succeed under the current merger regime.
• Greensill Settlement Capital Protection but Strained Relationships: While the A$2.8 billion Credit Suisse Greensill litigation settlement announced on September 25, 2026, eliminates a major legal overhang with no material FY27 impact, the underlying reinsurance and indemnity recoveries used to fund it are straining long-term capacity relationships with key global syndicates.
• Ambition 2030’s ROE Targets Lack Underwriting Cleanliness: IAG’s upgraded through-the-cycle ROE target of 15% or higher relies heavily on high-single-digit premium rate increases and favorable investment yields rather than structural improvements in the underlying claims ratio, presenting a risk of customer churn to Suncorp and QBE as affordability thresholds are breached.

• Western Union is acquiring International Money Express for $16/share in cash, with almost all merger conditions satisfied.
• California’s regulatory review suspension has widened the merger arbitrage spread from 12% to 50% over ten days.
• Western Union accepted New York’s concessions, indicating commitment to the merger despite IMXI’s weakened financial performance.

• DBS Group Holdings Ltd (DBS SP) is Southeast Asia’s largest banking group by assets, delivering structural earnings resilience with FY25 revenue of SGD 37.62bn and net profit of SGD 10.90bn, driven by its low-cost CASA deposit franchise, digital leadership, and regional wealth expansion.
• Key strategic catalysts center on DBS’s aggressive wealth management roadmap targeting SGD 1.0tn in AUM over the next four years (up from SGD 680bn), extensive enterprise AI deployment supporting an enduring ~17% ROE target, and solid loan growth (+8.3% YoY).
• Capital management remains best-in-class with a 3.79% dividend yield and a 5-year dividend CAGR of 25.18%, though institutional investors should monitor headwinds from benchmark interest rate normalization on Net Interest Income (NII) and regulatory developments in Greater China.

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• In this edition: • Flow Traders | expects 26Q3 NTI to be significantly below 26Q2 • Fugro | secures additional survey contracts in Timor-Leste

• This will delve a little deeper on individual companies and focus on non-house stocks under £200m market capitalisation to raise awareness 18th September 2026 Alphabetically arranged Share prices and market capitalisations taken from Alpha Terminal from the current price on the day of publication.
• Top three shareholders are taken from the websites of the companies that we are writing about, unless there is a more up to date TR-1 notification RNS announcement.

• We stick with RHB Bank only as our buy in Malaysian banks, for its fundamental value credentials
• We downgrade two banks to neutral from buy ratings; we believe that there is limited share re-rating potential at CIMB and PB Bank going forward
• We upgrade Maybank to a neutral from a sell rating, largely based on valuation; the extent of its de-rating can be seen in this report’s PBV and PE charts

• National Stock Exchange (NSEIN IN) raised about US$2.4bn in its India IPO.
• NSE operates electronic platforms for trading equities, derivatives, currencies, and debt securities, also earning revenue from clearing and settlement services, market data, index licensing, listing fees, connectivity, and technology services.
• We have looked at the company’s past performance and valuations in our previous note. In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.

Executive Summary

• Validation of Margin Resilience and ASEAN Expansion: The baseline theses are broadly tracking as expected, evidenced by a strategic pivot toward higher-value enterprise solutions that drove expansion in gross profit margin to 54.2% despite a 28% top-line contraction, although operational efficiency has lagged as pre-tax losses widened to US$11.9m. This transition toward higher-quality, institutional-grade earnings is further supported by the integration of Vietnamese payment rails and the rollout of advanced foreign exchange capabilities.

• Accelerated Regional Integration and Margin Expansion: The group reported full-year 2025 revenue of US$30.1m and gross profit of US$16.3m, reflecting a deliberate shedding of low-margin transaction volume that lifted gross profit margin by 11.9 percentage points. Concurrently, the company deepened its regional infrastructure by signing definitive agreements to integrate with METech, securing direct Vietnamese Dong collection and payout rails, and operationalising its Capital Markets Services licence.

• Qualitative Evolution of Fundamental and Alternative Metrics: The pvtIQ Fundamental SmartScore© maintains a solid standing, anchored by strong Governance, Unit Economics and Moat dimensions alongside a stable Management rating, though the Growth category remains constrained by the strategic moderation in revenue. The pvtIQ Alt-Data SmartScore© reflects a specialised enterprise footprint, supported by improving Human Capital and steady Socials momentum but limited by a lower Authority standing due to a reliance on direct institutional partnerships.

• Emirates NBD’s landmark ₹26,016 crore (USD 2.75 billion) primary capital infusion on June 18, 2026, for a 60% controlling stake has fundamentally reset RBL Bank’s balance sheet, pushing its Capital Adequacy Ratio (CRAR) to 33.28% and eliminating any equity dilution or capital-raising risks for the next 3 to 5 years.
• Structural profitability remains a critical challenge, with Return on Assets (ROA) sitting at a subdued 0.57% in Q1 FY27. Net Interest Margin (NIM) compressed significantly to 4.13%, dragged down by the immediate liquidity-deployment friction of the new capital and a tactical pivot towards lower-yielding wholesale advances (which grew 38% YoY to ₹52,027 crore) to manage overall credit risk.
• The retail book’s seasoned vintages from mid-2024 to early 2025 represent the core credit vulnerability. Co-branded credit cards and digital personal loans sourced via fintech partnerships during the peak of the aggressive expansion phase have seen early-bucket (30-90 DPD) delinquencies trend 120 to 150 basis points above pre-COVID norms, driving elevated credit card slippages of ₹7.4 billion in Q1 FY27 and prompting a severe pruning of digital-partner originations.

• Post-Merger Balance Sheet Normalization: HDFC Bank (ADR: HDB US, $22.79) is executing a measured transition strategy following its landmark merger with HDFC Ltd, actively re-aligning its Loan-to-Deposit Ratio (LDR) through accelerated retail deposit mobilization while moderating wholesale credit growth to safeguard Net Interest Margins (NIM).
• Resilient Earnings Power and Cash Flow Generation: The bank demonstrated robust fundamentals in FY26, generating $56.91B in revenue and $8.60B in net income with stable net margins of 15.12%, supported by a dramatic expansion in Operating Cash Flow to $18.97B and Free Cash Flow to $18.53B.
• Attractive Valuation Asymmetry: A persistent disconnect exists between HDFC Bank’s operational compounding (10-year Revenue and Net Income CAGRs of 17.48% and 15.97%) and recent equity performance (3-year Market Cap CAGR of -9.29%), creating an attractive entry point for institutional investors seeking premier exposure to Indian structural credit growth.

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• Yield Illusion: Spring REIT slashed its interim dividend as revenues plunged, trapping investors who expected a safe yield within a mathematically flawed, debt-heavy income vehicle.
• Supply Avalanche: A massive influx of Grade-A office supply in Beijing shifted pricing power entirely to tenants, triggering devastating negative rental reversions for the flagship asset.
• Leverage Vice: Shrinking property valuations and structurally elevated debt costs are driving the REIT perilously close to strict loan-to-value covenant breaches, accelerating fundamental destruction.

• Context: The Bajaj Finserv (BJFIN IN) vs. Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB IN) price ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
• Highlight: Going long Bajaj Finserv (BJFIN IN) and short Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB IN) targets a 4% return.
• Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

• Back in July, cashed-up Tokio Marine Holdings (8766 JP) was reportedly running a ruler over Insurance Australia (IAG AU) or Suncorp (SUN AU).
• Berkshire’s recent investment in Tokio Marine appears to have jumpstarted its M&A ambitions. Late August, Tokio Marine (also reportedly) identified Suncorp as its preferred takeover target 
• Suncorp was viewed as (potentially) a cleaner play after selling Suncorp Bank to ANZ Group Holdings (ANZ AU) in 2024. IAG is now cleaner after settling the Greensill litigation. 

• Link REIT (823 HK) represents Asia’s largest and most defensively structured real estate investment trust, anchored by a HK$210B+ portfolio comprising necessity-focused neighbourhood retail, fresh wet markets, and car parks predominantly situated in Hong Kong’s high-density public housing estates.
• Despite headline statutory net losses in 2025 and 2026 driven entirely by non-cash property revaluation writedowns amid global cap rate expansions, underlying cash flows remain robust with operating cash flow of HK$6.82B in 2026 and an attractive forward distribution yield of ~6.80%.
• Management’s strategic pivot toward the ‘Link 3.0’ capital management framework—focused on capital recycling (e.g., partial divestment of 100 Market Street in Sydney), institutional joint ventures, and accretive unit buybacks—provides balance sheet resilience and supports long-term distribution per unit (DPU) stability.

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• MetLife reported its second quarter 2026 results demonstrating broad-based growth across its diversified business segments, supported by the continued execution of its New Frontier strategy.
• Adjusted earnings increased 15% year-over-year to approximately $1.6 billion or $2.43 per share, with adjusted earnings per share growing 20%.
• The adjusted return on equity stood at 17%, reaching the top end of its annual 15% to 17% target range and exceeding its cost of capital.

• Chubb Limited reported a strong second quarter of 2026 characterized by continued growth and financial resilience across its diversified insurance and investment operations.
• Core operating earnings reached $2.8 billion, representing a 14.6% increase year-over-year, while earnings per share rose 18.2%.
• The company’s tangible book value per share, a key metric for shareholder wealth, improved by 17.1% year-over-year, reflecting consistent value creation.

• Responding to an ASX price query after a 22.7% intraday fall, OFX Group (OFX AU) cited “meaningful progress” on the SID and is negotiating to extend Equals’ exclusivity beyond 25 September.
• Bulls cite OFX’s denial of undisclosed news, SID progress, Equals’ 2024 equity-financing precedent and the sell-off’s low traded value as signs a binding offer will follow. 
• Bears argue stretched timelines and silence on financing signal Equals walking away or cutting the price. I estimate a deal break price range of A$0.40–0.50.

• On the 23rd July, international money transfer play OFX (OFX AU) announced a Process Deed with Equals Group, potentially leading to a A$1.00/share Offer by way of a Scheme
• A$1.00/Share represent a 108% premium to undisturbed. Equals Group was granted four weeks of due diligence. That DD window closed with no ASX announcement. My inquiries indicated all was good.
• After shares materially reversed, all-but-suggesting a busted deal, OFX finally announced DD had been extended to the 25th September. This morning, DD has been further extended to the 30th October.

• Aspirational Luxury Wipeout: A macroeconomic squeeze has erased 50m middle-class luxury consumers, devastating mainland turnover rents as megabrands like Gucci and LVMH report plunging sales.
• Hong Kong Office Contagion: Swire faces a brutal second front, with Grade A office vacancies hitting 17.5% and flagship portfolios suffering negative rental reversions up to 16% amid financial exoduses.
• Dividend Under Threat: With 7.7 bn HKD in fair value losses and sliding recurring profits, reliance on capital recycling masks underlying decay, threatening dividend growth and valuation.

• Context: The Bajaj Finance (BAF IN) vs. Bajaj Finserv (BJFIN IN) price ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
• Highlight: Going long Bajaj Finserv (BJFIN IN) and short Bajaj Finance (BAF IN) targets a 4% return.
• Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

• The High Court has sanctioned the Scheme, clearing the last substantive hurdle to Zurich’s acquisition of Beazley; only delivery of the Court Order to the Registrar remains outstanding.
• Beazley trades at 1,306.6p, leaving just 3.4p, or 0.26%, to the 1,310p cash consideration; the 25p permitted dividend has already been paid.
• The High Court has sanctioned the Scheme, clearing the last substantive hurdle to Zurich’s acquisition of Beazley; only delivery of the Court Order to the Registrar remains outstanding.

• Cash Fortress Unlocked: CK Asset holds a massive HKD 21.9 bn net cash surplus, earning high interest and shielding it from the crushing rate-hike pressures plaguing highly levered competitors.
• Strategic Capital Recycling: A strategic exit from UK infrastructure generated a staggering HKD 9.79 bn gain, successfully masking the structural 57% plunge in Hong Kong core property development profits.
• Generational Value Play: Trading at a massive discount to its HKD 114 net book value, the cash-rich conglomerate is perfectly positioned for counter-cyclical acquisitions and aggressive dividend hikes.

• This insight discusses about listing dynamics of National Stock Exchange (NSEIN IN) .
• We present factors which would impact the listing price and present various valuation scenarios.
• Finally, we conclude with view on near term price movement for the company.

• Dominant Market Position in Financial Intelligence & Thematic Indices: FnGuide Inc. (064850 KS) is South Korea’s preeminent independent financial data, investment analytics, and index benchmark provider, functioning as an essential market infrastructure player levered directly to the secular expansion of the Korean exchange-traded fund (ETF) market (AUM exceeding KRW 512tn).
• Inflection in Operating Leverage & Profitability: The business model is undergoing a structural shift toward high-margin index licensing fees (~47.3% of top-line revenue in 1Q 2026), driving record financial performance in 2Q 2026 with quarterly revenue reaching KRW 14.92bn (+85.5% YoY) and EBITDA margins expanding to 54.87%.
• Robust Balance Sheet with Attractive Cash Generation: FnGuide maintains a high-quality financial profile characterized by a 3-year Free Cash Flow CAGR of 18.01%, zero net debt (KRW 14.07bn net cash), and high returns on invested capital, though geographic concentration in Korea and recent corporate governance transitions warrant institutional monitoring.

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• We review the mid-cap banks’ equity shareholdings at year-end March 2026 in greater detail, focusing on how realizable these equity holdings may be; we compare these holdings to market capitalization
• We find that Iyogin has a meaningful share of its total equity shareholdings in hard-to-realize holdings; we downgrade Iyogin, along with Nishi-Nippon, from buy to neutral
• Hachijuni, our sole buy, leads on easy-to-realize shareholdings to market capitalisation and will enhance its interest rate gearing given the high level of fixed rate credit maturing by March-end 2027

• Differentiated Hybrid Specialty Model: Orion180 Insurance Group (Nasdaq: OIG) has scaled rapidly since its 2018 inception to become the second-largest Excess and Surplus (E&S) homeowners insurance provider in the U.S. by direct written premiums, generating over $601 million in trailing twelve-month managed premiums across 14 states through an agile hybrid structure combining fee-based MGA services (~70% of revenue) and fronting risk carriers (~30% of revenue).
• Proprietary Technology and Scalable Distribution Engine: The company’s proprietary MY180 technology platform enables sub-three-minute quote-and-bind workflows, algorithmic micro-geographic risk rating, and streamlined claims processing, supported by an expansive distribution network of over 14,000 active independent retail brokers that has driven organic revenue growth exceeding 100% year-over-year.
• Compelling Valuation Entry Post-IPO Reset: Following a downsized IPO pricing at $12.00 per share (below the initial $15.00–$17.00 price range) and a subsequent secondary market pullback to $10.50, OIG trades at an attractive ~4.8x forward net revenue and ~14.5x FY2026E EPS, offering institutional investors an asymmetric entry point into a high-margin, capital-light specialty insurer backed by top-tier reinsurance partnerships.

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