india Archives | Page 19 of 153 | Smartkarma

In today’s briefing:

Sai Life Sciences IPO Lockup – US$840m Lockup Release; TPG Asia up 5.8x with a 24.8% Stake
Oswal Pumps IPO – RHP Updates & Thoughts on Peer Comp and Valuation
Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
Divi’s Laboratories (DIVI IN): Double-Digit Growth and Margin Improvement to Continue

Sai Life Sciences IPO Lockup – US$840m Lockup Release; TPG Asia up 5.8x with a 24.8% Stake

By Akshat Shah

SAI Life Sciences (SAILS12 IN) raised around US$360m in its India IPO in Dec 2024. The lockup on its pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.
Sai Life Sciences is a contract research, development and manufacturing organisation providing end-to-end services across drug discovery, development and manufacturing value-chain, for small to global pharmaceutical innovators and biotechnology firms.
In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.

Oswal Pumps IPO – RHP Updates & Thoughts on Peer Comp and Valuation

By Akshat Shah

Oswal Pumps (1019841D IN) is looking to raise about US$162m in its upcoming India IPO. The deal has been downsized from an earlier size of around US$250m.
Oswal Pumps Ltd (OPL) specializes in the manufacturing of solar-powered and conventional pumps, electric motors, and related components for agricultural, residential, and industrial applications.
We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the RHP updates and IPO valuations.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Trung Nguyen

US treasury yields declined yesterday, led by the short end, given softer than expected CPI data and a solid auction for the 10Y notes.
The UST curve bull-steepened, with the yield on the 2Y UST down 7 bps at 3.95%, while the yield on the 10Y UST fell 5 bps to 4.42%.
Equities halted a three-day advance, albeit remaining near record-high levels.

Divi’s Laboratories (DIVI IN): Double-Digit Growth and Margin Improvement to Continue

By Tina Banerjee

Divi’s Laboratories (DIVI IN) ended FY25 on a strong note. Continued momentum in CS business, recovery in generic business, and significant margin improvement are the key highlights of Q4FY25 result.
Divi’s is witnessing sustained momentum in CS, with a healthy uptick in RFPs and regular site visits. Favorable product mix, stable raw material, and logistics prices will improve overall margin.
Moving ahead, the company is looking to maintain double-digit revenue growth. This compares favorably with less than 2% revenue CAGR over the last three years.

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Jun 12

Daily Brief India: Bharat Coking Coal Limited (BCCL) and more

In today’s briefing:

Bharat Coking Coal Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet

Bharat Coking Coal Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet

Bharat Coking Coal Limited (BCCL) (7535956Z IN) is looking to raise about US$100m in its upcoming India IPO. The bookrunners for the deal are IDBI, ICICI.
BCCL is a subsidiary of Coal India Limited engaged primarily in the mining of coking coal. It produces various grades of coking coal, non-coking coal, and washed coal.
According to the CRISIL Report, BCCL was the largest producer of coking coal in India in FY25, contributing 58.50% to the country’s total domestic coking coal production.

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Jun 10

Daily Brief India: Trent Ltd, Tata Motors, Chambal Fertilisers & Chemicals, SGX Rubber Future TSR20, Steel, Shilpa Medicare, RITES Ltd, Dodla Dairy and more

In today’s briefing:

Quiddity BSE/SENSEX Jun25 Results: 23/26 Correct; ~US$600mn Total One-Way Flows
Reiterate Short Tata Motors – Weak Sales Volume, JLR UK Retails Weak
The Beat Ideas: Chambal Fertilisers – From Urea Giant to Agri-Solutions Powerhouse
FY 2025 Marks Shrinking Margins For Indian Tire Majors
India Steel Monitor – May 2025: Prices Fall, Demand Weak, Outlook Diverges
Shilpa Medicare: Strong FY25, FDF and Biologics, Focus on Asset Monetisation
RITES Ltd (NSE: RITES) – Stable Core, Turnkey Drag, Strong Rail Capex Tailwinds
Dodla Dairy (DODLA) – Multiple Near-Term Triggers Position It for Re-Rating

Quiddity BSE/SENSEX Jun25 Results: 23/26 Correct; ~US$600mn Total One-Way Flows

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

The semiannual index rebal events of the SENSEX index, BSE 100 index, and BSE 200 index will take place in June 2025.
There will be two changes for BSE Sensex, three changes for BSE 100, and eight changes for BSE 200.
In this insight, we take a look at our final flow expectations.

Reiterate Short Tata Motors – Weak Sales Volume, JLR UK Retails Weak

By Sreemant Dudhoria

We continue to reiterate our short call on Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN) based on near term challenges.
May sales volume is weak versus peers in industry. This weak performance is seen across segments – India passenger cars, commercial vehicles and UK Retail sales
This insight discusses the whole sale volume in the month of May and compares it with its nearest competitors.

The Beat Ideas: Chambal Fertilisers – From Urea Giant to Agri-Solutions Powerhouse

CFCL is shifting from a subsidy-driven urea player to a diversified Agri-inputs firm, with strong traction in crop protection, biologicals, and a INR 1,645 Cr TAN project. .
This diversification reduces exposure to regulatory risks, enhances margins, and positions CFCL for long-term structural growth in high-value Agri-solutions
With a near debt-free balance sheet and visibility on INR 900–1,000 Cr revenue from TAN, we now view CFCL as a multi-engine growth story beyond commoditized urea.

FY 2025 Marks Shrinking Margins For Indian Tire Majors

By Vinod Nedumudy

MRF stages recovery in margin in Q4, others suffer
CEAT breaches US$1.51 billion for the first time in revenue in FY25
High raw material costs eat into profits of majors

India Steel Monitor – May 2025: Prices Fall, Demand Weak, Outlook Diverges

Steel prices declined for 5 straight weeks; long products like rebar and wire rod saw the steepest fall amid weak spot market sentiment.
Companies expect higher Q1 FY26 realizations, but spot trends remain weak, highlighting a lag between optimism and transactional reality.
Auto and housing demand is softening; only two-wheelers, EVs, and commercial real estate offer near-term support to steel consumption.

Shilpa Medicare: Strong FY25, FDF and Biologics, Focus on Asset Monetisation

Shilpa’s FY 25 revenue +13 %, EBITDA margin 26 %, EU-GMP clearances, key FDF launches and stronger biologics/CDMO orders mark a decisive operational step-up.
Growth now rests on differentiated, limited-competition products and biologics CDMO, promising steadier earnings and less reliance on lumpy one-off licensing fees.
Improved asset utilisation, regulatory wins and visible pipeline recast Shilpa from a cyclical API player into a diversified, higher-margin specialty-biologics growth story.

RITES Ltd (NSE: RITES) – Stable Core, Turnkey Drag, Strong Rail Capex Tailwinds

RITES reported a ~10% YoY decline in revenue, from Rs2,453 Cr in FY24 to Rs2,218 Cr in FY25, with PAT falling ~16% to Rs424 Cr due to reduced turnkey execution.
The company is ramping up selective metros, export projects, and EPC work, while maintaining its strong core consultancy business, which makes up roughly 50% of revenue.
Trading at around 34× P/E, with a ROCE of ~21% and a dividend yield of ~3.8%, RITES remains well-positioned to benefit from India’s sustained rail sector investments.

Dodla Dairy (DODLA) – Multiple Near-Term Triggers Position It for Re-Rating

By Garvit Bhandari

Dodla Dairy Ltd, one of India’s leading integrated dairy companies, is on a strong growth trajectory with 3-year revenue CAGR of 18.4% during 2022-2025
Further, the increasing mix of value-added product (VAP) is leading to improving profitability, and robust free cash flow generation.
The valuation, at 23.3x FY27 EPS is reasonable in our view with potential upside for re-rating if the management continues to execute on its growth strategy.

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Jun 09

Daily Brief India: Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders , Bank Of Baroda, Bharat Dynamics Ltd, Bajaj Auto Ltd, Shyam Metalics and Energy, Apollo Hospitals Enterprise and more

In today’s briefing:

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance: HUGE Turnover and Trade as Financials Shine
Indian Banks: Adding Canara and UBI to the Buy List, Dropping Bandhan and PNB
BDL IN – Bharat Dynamics: Missile Systems Specialist Strengthening India’s Defence Edge
KTM Saga, Short Bajaj Auto – There’s a Lot to Chew On
Shyam Metalics & Energy Ltd (NSE: SHYAMMETL) – A Capital-Efficient Growth Play in Indian Metals
Apollo Hospitals (APHS IN): Positive Outlook; Expansion on Track; Growth Momentum to Continue

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance: HUGE Turnover and Trade as Financials Shine

By Brian Freitas

There are 20 changes a side for the Nifty200 Momentum30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 27 June. We had correctly forecast 39 of the 40 changes.
Estimated one-way turnover is 68.4% resulting in a round-trip trade of INR 160bn (US$1.9bn). There are 22 stocks with over 1x ADV to trade.
The Financials sector has 9 net inclusions to the index while the Information Technology and Consumer Discretionary sectors have 2 net deletions each.

Indian Banks: Adding Canara and UBI to the Buy List, Dropping Bandhan and PNB

By Victor Galliano

Our proprietary scorecard applies a series of metrics related to valuation, returns, capital adequacy, funding, liquidity and credit quality to generate rankings in an investment valuation scorecard
Driven by the scorecard results, we keep Baroda on the buy list adding Canara and UBI, with the latter two replacing Bandhan and PNB previously on the buy list
We remove Kotak Mahindra from the sell list; IndusInd ranks bottom on the scorecard, but we feel that a lot of bad news is now discounted, limiting further downside risk

BDL IN – Bharat Dynamics: Missile Systems Specialist Strengthening India’s Defence Edge

BDL reported strong FY25 revenue of ₹3,345 Cr and PAT of ₹550 Cr, though EBITDA margins declined to 24.6% from earlier highs.
With a ₹22,700 Cr order book, BDL is expanding via new plants in Jhansi, Amravati, and Ibrahimpatnam backed by ₹600+ Cr capex.
At 100x PE and 75xPE FY27e valuations appear stretched, leaving limited margin of safety despite strong execution and order visibility.

KTM Saga, Short Bajaj Auto – There’s a Lot to Chew On

By Sreemant Dudhoria

We cover the multiple factors which led to the operational and financial mess at Pierer Mobility AG, the holding company of KTM.
This insight highlights the past not so great track record of Indian companies acquiring European businesses due to cultural, operational integration and higher restructuring costs.
Bajaj Auto Ltd (BJAUT IN) remains strong domestically, but KTM’s losses, debt, and integration hurdles risk compressing margins and return ratios at the consolidated level. We recommend Shorting Bajaj Auto.

Shyam Metalics & Energy Ltd (NSE: SHYAMMETL) – A Capital-Efficient Growth Play in Indian Metals

Shyam Metalics reported robust FY25 results with 15% revenue growth and 21% EBITDA rise, driven by higher volumes and a shift toward value-added products.
The company is executing a ₹10,025 Cr capex plan to double capacity by FY27, targeting high-margin segments like stainless steel and aluminium foil with backward integration.
With zero net debt, strong cash flows, and a forward P/E of ~14×, Shyam Metalics offers a rare blend of growth, capital discipline, and low leverage in the steel sector.

Apollo Hospitals (APHS IN): Positive Outlook; Expansion on Track; Growth Momentum to Continue

By Tina Banerjee

Apollo Hospitals Enterprise (APHS IN) reported strong FY25 result, with 14% revenue growth and a massive 61% jump in net profit. EBITDA margin improved to 13.9% (FY24: 12.5%).
Overall margin expansion is mainly driven by AHLL (margin up 140bps YoY to 9.9%) and Apollo HealthCo (margin at 1.8% vs loss in FY24).
AHEL plans to add 4,300 beds over the next three to four years, with 2,000 beds expected to become operational in FY26.

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Jun 08

Daily Brief India: NIFTY Index, ICICI Lombard General Insurance Company, Torrent Pharmaceuticals and more

In today’s briefing:

India’s Unexpected 0.5% Rate Cut: Friday’s Market Reaction Breakdown
Nifty 50 Tactical Outlook After RBI’s Steep Rate Cut
ICICI Lombard (ICICIGI IN) Vs. SBI Life (SBILIFE IN): Mean Reversion Delivers Gains, Trade Exit
Torrent Pharmaceuticals (TRP IN): India Business Drives 11% PAT Growth in Q4; Margin Levers at Work

India’s Unexpected 0.5% Rate Cut: Friday’s Market Reaction Breakdown

Context: On June 6, 2025, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) unexpectedly cut interest rates by 50 basis points to 5.5%, double the anticipated 25 basis points.
The NIFTY 50 Index fluctuated initially but later stabilized at a 1.0% gain, while the NSE Nifty Bank Index rose 1.5%. At-the-money implied volatility changed little, while the skew rotated.
This Insight explains the RBI’s bold policy move, market reactions, and limitations of predictive models in navigating central bank decisions.

Nifty 50 Tactical Outlook After RBI’s Steep Rate Cut

By Nico Rosti

The NIFTY Index rallied after RBI cuts key policy rate by 50 bps to 5.50%(but RBI governor said there is limited policy space from here).
Inflation forecast was cut to 3.7%; GDP growth forecast retained at 6.5, but Trump’s trade tariffs and the prospect of a global economic slowdown are generating uncertainty.
The NIFTY was already moving up in the last 2 days and accelerated sharply on Friday. But our model signals that the index is not overbought, it can go higher.

ICICI Lombard (ICICIGI IN) Vs. SBI Life (SBILIFE IN): Mean Reversion Delivers Gains, Trade Exit

Context: This article provides an update on a previously identified pair trading opportunity between ICICI Lombard (ICICIGI IN) and SBI Life (SBILIFE IN), based on statistical mean reversion analysis.
Key Insights: The trade has now reached its exit signal as the price ratio reverted to its one-standard deviation band, yielding a +9% return.
Why Read It: For investors interested in quantitative trading strategies, this article demonstrates how statistical arbitrage can generate short-term alpha and highlights actionable similar opportunities in the current market.

Torrent Pharmaceuticals (TRP IN): India Business Drives 11% PAT Growth in Q4; Margin Levers at Work

By Tina Banerjee

Torrent Pharmaceuticals (TRP IN) reported a 11% YoY increase in net profit to INR5B on an 8% YoY growth in revenue to INR28B in Q4FY25. Domestic business drove overall performance.
Revenue from domestic market increased 12% YoY to INR15.5B, led by outperformance in focus therapies, aided by strong new launch performance. Torrent continued to outperform IPM.
The company is expanding margins by 75–100bps historically. With improving traction in U.S., double-digit growth in Brazil, and continued strong performance in India, the trend is expected to continue.

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Jun 07

Daily Brief India: Vedanta Ltd, Ircon International, Prince Pipes and Fittings, Innovatiview India Ltd, Central Mine Planning Design Institute Ltd (CMPDIL) and more

In today’s briefing:

Vedanta Demerger: Key Highlights, Value Drivers, and Risks
IRCON International – Stable Franchise with Long-Term Tailwinds, Near-Term Execution Hurdles
The Beat Ideas: Prince Pipes- Margin Recovery and Market Expansion in Full Flow
Innovatiview India Ltd Pre-IPO – Growth Amid Cash Flow Pressures
Central Mine Planning Design Institute Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet

Vedanta Demerger: Key Highlights, Value Drivers, and Risks

Latest Update: NCLAT has stayed NCLT’s rejection, allowing Vedanta’s five-way demerger to proceed, with completion targeted by September 2025.
Value Concentration: Over 85% of Vedanta’s SOTP value stems from Aluminium and Residual Vedanta, driven by strong EBITDA and asset base.
Upside and Risks: SOTP suggests 20%+ upside, but risks include regulatory delays, execution slippage in aluminium/zinc projects, and commodity price volatility.

IRCON International – Stable Franchise with Long-Term Tailwinds, Near-Term Execution Hurdles

FY25 results reflected margin pressure and a 14% revenue decline due to project completions, with FY26 guidance indicating flat revenue and lower core EBITDA margins (5–5.25%).
Indian Railways’ capex is expected to grow at a 6–10% CAGR over the next decade, offering sustained demand across new lines, electrification, and safety systems.
While valuations appear reasonable, near-term growth visibility remains limited due to a muted order book and transition away from cost-plus contracts.

The Beat Ideas: Prince Pipes- Margin Recovery and Market Expansion in Full Flow

Prince Pipes entered the premium bathware segment with the Aquel acquisition, expanding into lifestyle plumbing beyond traditional piping systems.
This move broadens its addressable market and margin profile, creating cross-selling opportunities across its large dealer network.
With margin recovery likely and industry destocking easing, Prince Pipes appears well-positioned for rerating and multi-year profit growth.

Innovatiview India Ltd Pre-IPO – Growth Amid Cash Flow Pressures

Innovatiview India Ltd (INNOVATIVIEWINDIA IN) (IIL) is planning to raise about US$230m in its upcoming India IPO.
IIL is a technology-driven provider of automated ancillary security and surveillance solutions for examinations, elections, and large-scale events across India.
As of Sep 24, IIL was the largest player in examination integrated security solutions in India, according to F&S Report.

Central Mine Planning Design Institute Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet

Central Mine Planning Design Institute Ltd (CMPDIL) (0180301D IN) is looking to raise about US$100m in its upcoming India IPO. The bookrunners for the deal are IDBI, SBI Caps.
CMPDIL provides consultancy and support services across the full range of coal and mineral exploration, mine planning and design.
As per the CRISIL Report, it is the largest coal and mineral consultancy in India by market share in FY25 and serves as the preferred consultant for Coal India Limited.

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Jun 06

Daily Brief India: Ola Electric, Hindustan Aeronautics , Bank Of India, Fusion CX Limited, Astral Ltd and more

In today’s briefing:

Ola Electric: Hyundai Exits Amid Slowing Sales, Delayed Cells and Fundraising Plans.
HAL (NSE: HAL) – Strong Visibility, Undervalued Optionality
Relative Value Opportunity: Bank of India (BOI IN) Vs. Union Bank of India (UNBK IN)
Fusion Cx Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet
The Beat Ideas: Astral ~ Leader in PVC Pipes, Riding the Restocking Cycle

Ola Electric: Hyundai Exits Amid Slowing Sales, Delayed Cells and Fundraising Plans.

By Devi Subhakesan

Hyundai Motor (005380 KS) and Kia Corp (000270 KS) have exited their investment in Ola Electric through a combined stake sale worth USD80 million, at a discount to market prices.
The exit marks the end of their 2019 investment in the then-unlisted 2W EV startup and highlights rising investor concerns over Ola Electric’s growth trajectory and operational challenges.
Ola Electric had listed less than a year ago with bullish growth projections, but the stock is down 34% from the issue price and 63% from post-IPO high prices.

HAL (NSE: HAL) – Strong Visibility, Undervalued Optionality

Over FY22–FY25, HAL’s revenue grew at a CAGR of ~8%, while PAT rose at ~15% CAGR, with the order book doubling to ₹1.89 lakh Cr, providing LT visibility.
India’s defence indigenization drive, large platform rollouts (LCA Mk1A, LUH, AMCA, engines), positions HAL to address a Rs3–4 lakh Cr opportunity over the next 5–10 years, including exports.
Despite strong earnings growth, zero debt, and long-term JV upside (e.g., Safran engine), HAL trades at a P/E of ~33–38×, below many peers, indicating room for re-rating.

Relative Value Opportunity: Bank of India (BOI IN) Vs. Union Bank of India (UNBK IN)

The Bank of India (BOI IN) vs. Union Bank of India (UNBK IN) price-ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, signaling a potential pair trade.
The potential relative value opportunity can be implemented through stocks, derivatives, or as relative over-/underweights in a long only context.
This Insight provides a target return and discusses trade setup and risk management strategies.

Fusion Cx Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet

Fusion CX Limited (1604907D IN) (FCL) is looking to raise about US$117m in its upcoming India IPO. The bookrunners for the deal are Nuvama, IIFL, Motilal.
FCL is a customer experience (CX) service provider offering integrated services across voice, email, chat, social media, and messaging.
The 2025 Frost & Sullivan Best Practices Report recognized Fusion CX with the “North American Technology Innovation Leadership Recognition” for its technology use and client focus.

The Beat Ideas: Astral ~ Leader in PVC Pipes, Riding the Restocking Cycle

Astral Ltd (ASTRA IN) is a market leader in CPVC and plastic piping systems, with growing presence in adhesives, paints, and water tanks it maintained margins despite industry’s headwinds.
New launches like Fire Pro, OPVC, Drain Pro, and valves are expected to contribute INR 450–500 crore annually, driving high-margin growth and portfolio expansion.
Dealers currently hold just 1–2 weeks of inventory, indicating an imminent restocking cycle that could boost near-term volumes.

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Jun 05

Daily Brief India: Nava, Shriram Pistons & Rings Ltd, Gujarat Fluorochemicals, Kilburn Engineering, Time Technoplast, Venus Pipes & Tubes and more

In today’s briefing:

NAVA Limited (NAVA.IN): Diversified Growth, Strong Financials, and Strategic Global Expansion
Shriram Pistons & Rings Ltd: Powering Forward with Precision and Purpose
Gujarat Fluorochemicals Limited: Robust Core Business Performance and EV Ramp-Up
Kilburn Engineering: Record Performance and Robust Growth Outlook
Time Technoplast Limited: Value-Added Products and Composites Drive Strong Performance
Venus Pipes & Tubes Ltd- Capacity Rising, Cash Faltering

NAVA Limited (NAVA.IN): Diversified Growth, Strong Financials, and Strategic Global Expansion

NAVA’s net profit doubled from ₹536 Cr in FY23 to ₹1,091 Cr in FY25, driven by strong power and mining earnings.
Maamba Phase II will double Zambian power capacity to 600 MW by FY27 with $400M investment. Zambia agri projects in avocado and sugar aim for diversified, steady revenue from FY27.
NAVA has become debt-free, strengthening its balance sheet. Improved credit ratings reflect steady profits, healthy cash flows, and low debt risk.

Shriram Pistons & Rings Ltd: Powering Forward with Precision and Purpose

By Viral Kishorchandra Shah

The company is expanding into EV motors, precision plastics, and exports to over 45 countries worldwide
SPRL reported Rs 36,612 million total income in FY25, with 15.3% YoY growth and a 22.8% EBITDA margin
SPRL balances legacy ICE products with new EV, plastics, and non-auto segments for resilient growth

Gujarat Fluorochemicals Limited: Robust Core Business Performance and EV Ramp-Up

Gujarat Fluorochemicals (FLUOROCH IN) reported strong consolidated Q4FY25 financials, driven by fluoropolymers, with significant PAT growth and reduced net debt.
This indicates sustained momentum in core fluoropolymers, potential for significant revenue contribution from the new EV business in the coming years, and an improved balance sheet supporting future investments.
Capex of INR 1,600 crs in FY26 funded via external accruals will expand EV and fluoropolymer capacities, enabling long-term growth across energy, mobility, and specialty segments.

Kilburn Engineering: Record Performance and Robust Growth Outlook

Kilburn Engineering (KEL IN) achieved highest-ever standalone/consolidated revenue and EBITDA, completed two strategic acquisitions (ME Energy, Monga Strayfield), and secured record orders, particularly entering the Nuclear sector.
The performance validates the company’s strategy of diversification and inorganic growth, providing strong visibility for future revenue with 50% growth target for FY26 .
The strong execution, robust order book, and confident management guidance reinforce a positive outlook, suggesting significant growth potential building on recent strategic moves.

Time Technoplast Limited: Value-Added Products and Composites Drive Strong Performance

Strong FY25 financial performance driven by volume growth outpacing revenue, significant PAT increase, and improved margins, particularly from higher-growth value-added and composite product segments.
The strategic focus on higher-margin value-added products, especially composites, is enhancing profitability (margins, ROCE) and positioning the company for future growth in key sectors like clean energy and sustainability.
The consistent execution on strategic targets (ROCE, debt reduction, composite growth) strengthens conviction in the management’s ability to deliver and capitalize on emerging opportunities, despite some project timeline shifts.

Venus Pipes & Tubes Ltd- Capacity Rising, Cash Faltering

By Nitin Mangal

Venus Pipes is a growing stainless-steel pipes and tubes manufacturer and exporter in India having over nine years of experience in manufacturing of stainless-steel tubular products.
With respect to forensics, we highlight several takeaways including steep increase in inventory days funded by creditors, expensive capex compared to peers, etc.
Weak governance practices are identified with respect to warrant issuance and non-disclosure of information on several fronts.

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Jun 04

Daily Brief India: Solar Industries India, NSE Nifty Bank Index, State Bank Of India, Nmdc Ltd, Action Construction Equipment, Dollar Industries and more

In today’s briefing:

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: 69% One-Way Turnover & US$1.9bn Trade
This Friday’s RBI Decision: Nifty Bank Slips Either Way, History Suggests
State Bank of India (SBIN IN): Reserve Bank of India Day Patterns Offer a Tactical Trade Setup
NMDC Ltd (NSE: NMDC) – Volume-Led Growth Story with Re-Rating Potential
Action Construction Equipment: Record Performance, Defence Opportunity, Agri Turnaround
Dollar Industries: Navigating Market Headwinds with Strategic Investments and Focus

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: 69% One-Way Turnover & US$1.9bn Trade

By Brian Freitas

There could be 20 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 27 June.
If all changes are on expected lines, one-way turnover is estimated at 68.7% and that will result in a round-trip trade of INR 159bn (US$1.87bn).
Financials are expected to gain 9 index spots and Materials are expected to gain 3 spots. Consumer Discretionary could lose 5 spots and Information Technology could lose 4 spots.

This Friday’s RBI Decision: Nifty Bank Slips Either Way, History Suggests

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will announce its monetary policy decision on Friday, June 6, 2025. Market consensus expects a rate cut to 5.75%.
Analysis of the NSE Nifty Bank Index over the past decade shows consistent negative returns on rate decision days when a cut is expected—regardless of whether the cut is delivered.
This Insight highlights actionable insights for traders by revealing historical patterns in the Nifty Bank Index’s behavior on RBI rate decision days and breaking down market reactions by scenario.

State Bank of India (SBIN IN): Reserve Bank of India Day Patterns Offer a Tactical Trade Setup

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will announce its monetary policy decision on Friday, June 6, 2025. Market consensus expects a rate cut to 5.75%.
Analysis of the State Bank Of India (SBIN IN) over the past decade shows mostly negative returns on rate decision days when a cut is expected.
This Insight highlights actionable insights for traders by revealing historical patterns in the State Bank Of India’s behavior on RBI rate decision days and breaking down price dynamics by scenario.

NMDC Ltd (NSE: NMDC) – Volume-Led Growth Story with Re-Rating Potential

Last 3 Years: NMDC’s PAT grew steadily from Rs3,774 Cr in FY23 to Rs6,693 Cr in FY25 (CAGR ~33%), driven by volume growth and margin expansion.
Guidance & Plans: Targets 55.4 MT (24% growth) in FY26 and 100 MT by 2030, backed by infra, EC capacity, and pellet expansion.
Re-Rating Potential: Meeting volume, margin, and execution targets could trigger valuation re-rating from current below-peer multiples.

Action Construction Equipment: Record Performance, Defence Opportunity, Agri Turnaround

Action Construction Equipment (ACCE IN) achieved record revenue and profits in FY25 and Q4, demonstrating strong execution and margin expansion.
Secured single largest order from Ministry of Defence, boosting future defense contribution and supporting Make in India.
Management is cautiously optimistic for FY26 due to temporary factors like BS5 price impact, but confident in medium to long-term growth prospects.

Dollar Industries: Navigating Market Headwinds with Strategic Investments and Focus

Dollar Industries (DOLLAR IN) reported modest revenue growth in FY25 amidst a challenging market, with strong emphasis on retail expansion and brand-building initiatives.
Despite a de-growth in sales volume, strategic investments in exclusive brand outlets (EBOs) and a renewed focus on premiumization are crucial for long-term growth.
The company’s resilience in maintaining margins despite volume pressures, coupled with its aggressive retail strategy, signals a potential turnaround as market conditions improve.

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Jun 03

Daily Brief India: Welspun Living, Vesuvius India, Finolex Industries, Triveni Engineering & Industries, Natco Pharma, Deepak Nitrite, Ramkrishna Forgings , Apeejay Surrendra Park Hotel, Godawari Power and Ispat and more

In today’s briefing:

Welspun Living: Navigating with Strategic Diversification and Domestic Focus
Vesuvius India Ltd (NSE: VESUVIUS) – A High-Quality Play on India’s Steel Upswing
The Beat Ideas: Finolex Industries Ltd ~ Vertically Integrated PVC Manufacturer
Triveni Engineering & Industries: Mega Restructuring & Stellar Performance
NATCO Pharma Limited: Record Year Performance Overshadowed by Cautious FY26 Outlook
Deepak Nitrite: Strategic Integration and Ambitious Expansion
Ramkrishna Forgings: Where Inventory Vanishes and Optimism Appears
Park Hotels Limited : Record Performance Fuels Ambitious Expansion
Godawari Power and Ispat Limited: Capacity Expansion and ESG Focus Drive Future Growth

Welspun Living: Navigating with Strategic Diversification and Domestic Focus

FY25 consolidated revenue surpassed INR 10,000 crore mark, increasing 8.9% year-on-year. Emerging businesses contributed over 30% to revenue.
Despite achieving the revenue milestone, Q4 performance and FY25 margins were impacted by cautious customer order patterns due to US tariff uncertainty.
The company is de-risking its geographical exposure by reducing reliance on the US while focusing on the potential from the UK FTA and strengthening its domestic presence, through strategic acquisition.

Vesuvius India Ltd (NSE: VESUVIUS) – A High-Quality Play on India’s Steel Upswing

Vesuvius India has a strong track record of double-digit revenue and profit growth, supported by robust return ratios like 32% ROCE and a debt-free balance sheet.
With ongoing capacity expansions and rising contribution to the parent’s revenue and EBITDA, India is now a key growth engine for the group.
Despite premium valuations, the company’s execution strength and industry tailwinds make it a compelling long-term play.

The Beat Ideas: Finolex Industries Ltd ~ Vertically Integrated PVC Manufacturer

Finolex Industries (FNXP IN) is a leading, vertically integrated Indian PVC manufacturer, the 2nd largest in PVC resin and 3rd in pipes & fittings, with captive production offering cost advantage.
Margin recovery in FY26 is targeted post headwinds faced by industry via pricing correction, improved product mix, enhanced discount management, and cost efficiency programs.
Potential ADD/BIS mandates mid-FY26 may curb Chinese imports, possibly enabling a 5–10% domestic price increase, reshaping the market.

Triveni Engineering & Industries: Mega Restructuring & Stellar Performance

Triveni reported record revenue and PAT for Q4 FY25, largely driven by the exceptional performance of the Power Transmission business and improved sugar realisations despite operational challenges
The strong performance of the Power Transmission segment and strategic focus on exports highlights its potential as a key growth driver, while the proposed restructuring aims to unlock values.
Company is guiding for improvement in each segment including Sugar, IMIL and transmission in the upcoming year.

NATCO Pharma Limited: Record Year Performance Overshadowed by Cautious FY26 Outlook

Natco Pharma (NTCPH IN) achieved record consolidated revenue and profits in FY25 and holds a strong cash position over INR 3,500 crore.
However, the company estimates a significant potential dip in revenue (20%) and profits (30%) for FY26 due to US market pressures and high R&D spend.
This signals near-term headwinds, while long-term growth remains tied to pipeline progress, particularly Semaglutide and Resplan launches in India, and strategic acquisitions.

Deepak Nitrite: Strategic Integration and Ambitious Expansion

Deepak Nitrite (DN IN) reported stable FY25 consolidated results despite challenging market conditions, with a notable Q4 sequential recovery in revenue and profitability.
The company achieved record production volumes through debottlenecking and optimization, maintained strong domestic market share, and initiated a significant shift to renewable energy.
Management outlined an INR 8,500 Cr investment in the PC resin project, alongside other integration and expansion plans, signaling confidence in future growth and resilience.

Ramkrishna Forgings: Where Inventory Vanishes and Optimism Appears

By Nitin Mangal

Ramkrishna Forgings (RMKF IN) (or RKFL) Q4FY25 results received a qualified audit opinion where inventory correction resulted in loss of 6.7% of net-worth.
The result also included several alarming highlights including a resurgence of inventory bulk up, questionable recognition of DTA, increasing debt, excess remuneration given to directors, etc.
What also takes the limelight is the warrants issue where company has issued warrants at ~3x the floor price to the promoters amidst the financial irregularities.

Park Hotels Limited : Record Performance Fuels Ambitious Expansion

ASPHL reported record Q4 and a “standout” FY25, marked by double-digit growth in revenue, EBITDA, PBT, and PAT.
The company achieved India’s highest occupancy in Q4 FY25 and maintained leadership in upper upscale RevPAR, outperforming industry averages.
ASPHL announced its detailed significant future expansion via development and acquisitions, indicating confidence in sustained growth.

Godawari Power and Ispat Limited: Capacity Expansion and ESG Focus Drive Future Growth