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Daily Brief Industrials: JD Logistics and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • [JD Logistics (2618 HK, SELL, TP HK$9.4) TP Change]: Premium Parcel Delivery Is Increasingly Crowded


[JD Logistics (2618 HK, SELL, TP HK$9.4) TP Change]: Premium Parcel Delivery Is Increasingly Crowded

By Shawn Yang

  • We expect JDL to report C2Q23 revenue and non-IFRS net profit margin (1.5%) and 0.4ppts vs. consensus. We expect 2Q revenue (excl. Deppon) to grow 5%~ YoY .
  • JDL is facing increasing competition from (1) the recent launch of Cainiao’s high-end delivery service, (2) improved ZTO service, and (2) Douyin’s actions to increasingly in-source logistics.
  • We maintain JDL’s SELL rating but raise its TP to HK$ 9.4, as we expect JDL will lower staffing costs, and by reducing staff redundancy.

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Daily Brief Industrials: Samsung C&T and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Korean Holdcos Vs Opcos Gap Trading Opportunities in 3Q 2023


Korean Holdcos Vs Opcos Gap Trading Opportunities in 3Q 2023

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we highlight the pricing gap divergences of the major Korean holdcos and opcos in 3Q 2023.
  • Of the 38 pair trades, 22 of them involved holdcos outperforming opcos YTD and 16 of them involved opcos outperforming holdcos in the same period.
  • We highlight 38 pair trades that involve Korean holdcos and opcos.

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Daily Brief Industrials: Samsung C&T and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Korean Holdcos Vs Opcos Gap Trading Opportunities in 3Q 2023


Korean Holdcos Vs Opcos Gap Trading Opportunities in 3Q 2023

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we highlight the pricing gap divergences of the major Korean holdcos and opcos in 3Q 2023.
  • Of the 38 pair trades, 22 of them involved holdcos outperforming opcos YTD and 16 of them involved opcos outperforming holdcos in the same period.
  • We highlight 38 pair trades that involve Korean holdcos and opcos.

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Daily Brief Industrials: Tryt Inc, Japan Airlines, Stadler Rail AG, MillerKnoll, Ww Grainger Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • TRYT IPO: Valuation Updates
  • JAL Aims for ¥12 Billion from New Online Mall
  • Stadler Rail: Swiss Quality..
  • MillerKnoll, Inc. – 4Q23 Results Top Expectations
  • W.W. Grainger Inc.: Breaking Barriers to Deliver Exceptional Customer Value! – Key Drivers


TRYT IPO: Valuation Updates

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • TRYT has priced its IPO at ¥1,200 per share, at the midpoint of the indicative IPO price range, at a market capitalisation and post-money EV of ¥120bn and ¥151.6bn respectively.
  • In our previous insight, we compared the company’s implied trailing multiples with peer trailing multiples and concluded that TRYT’s IPO is overvalued at the above price range.
  • In this insight, we have discussed our forecasts for Tryt Inc (9164 JP) and updated our valuation for the company.

JAL Aims for ¥12 Billion from New Online Mall

By Michael Causton

  • Shopping may be a tiny fraction of Japan Airlines (9201 JP) business but every little helps.
  • JAL has long offered a popular mail order catalogue selling premium products but has now converted its catalogues into an online mall. 
  • This means it can offer many more and new types of merchant and product, and create more connection with its customers.

Stadler Rail: Swiss Quality..

By Alexis Dwek

  • We believe that the Company’s European focus provides an advantage over competition, especially over larger international rolling stock manufacturers.
  • Stadler entered 2023 with a backlog at a record-level of CHF22bn and a book-to-bill of 1.5x. 
  • Management is confident that it will generate positive free cash flow and deliver on its FY 2023 guidance.

MillerKnoll, Inc. – 4Q23 Results Top Expectations

By Water Tower Research

  • After the market close on 7/12/2023, Miller Knoll reported Q4 non-GAAP EPS of $0.41 (as adjusted), beating our estimate and consensus estimate, each at $0.39.

  • Additionally, revenues of $956.7MM (above the mid-point of the $930MM to $970MM guidance) beat our $936MM and consensus $942MM estimates. GAAP EPS was $0.00.

  • Guidance always merits significant investor attention. Management guided historically only to the current quarter.


W.W. Grainger Inc.: Breaking Barriers to Deliver Exceptional Customer Value! – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Grainger managed to exceed analyst expectations in terms of revenue as well as earnings.
  • The company’s supply chain and distribution network experienced a rise in product availability due to improved supplier lead times.
  • We give W.W.

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Daily Brief Industrials: Tryt Inc, Japan Airlines, Stadler Rail AG, MillerKnoll, Ww Grainger Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • TRYT IPO: Valuation Updates
  • JAL Aims for ¥12 Billion from New Online Mall
  • Stadler Rail: Swiss Quality..
  • MillerKnoll, Inc. – 4Q23 Results Top Expectations
  • W.W. Grainger Inc.: Breaking Barriers to Deliver Exceptional Customer Value! – Key Drivers


TRYT IPO: Valuation Updates

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • TRYT has priced its IPO at ¥1,200 per share, at the midpoint of the indicative IPO price range, at a market capitalisation and post-money EV of ¥120bn and ¥151.6bn respectively.
  • In our previous insight, we compared the company’s implied trailing multiples with peer trailing multiples and concluded that TRYT’s IPO is overvalued at the above price range.
  • In this insight, we have discussed our forecasts for Tryt Inc (9164 JP) and updated our valuation for the company.

JAL Aims for ¥12 Billion from New Online Mall

By Michael Causton

  • Shopping may be a tiny fraction of Japan Airlines (9201 JP) business but every little helps.
  • JAL has long offered a popular mail order catalogue selling premium products but has now converted its catalogues into an online mall. 
  • This means it can offer many more and new types of merchant and product, and create more connection with its customers.

Stadler Rail: Swiss Quality..

By Alexis Dwek

  • We believe that the Company’s European focus provides an advantage over competition, especially over larger international rolling stock manufacturers.
  • Stadler entered 2023 with a backlog at a record-level of CHF22bn and a book-to-bill of 1.5x. 
  • Management is confident that it will generate positive free cash flow and deliver on its FY 2023 guidance.

MillerKnoll, Inc. – 4Q23 Results Top Expectations

By Water Tower Research

  • After the market close on 7/12/2023, Miller Knoll reported Q4 non-GAAP EPS of $0.41 (as adjusted), beating our estimate and consensus estimate, each at $0.39.

  • Additionally, revenues of $956.7MM (above the mid-point of the $930MM to $970MM guidance) beat our $936MM and consensus $942MM estimates. GAAP EPS was $0.00.

  • Guidance always merits significant investor attention. Management guided historically only to the current quarter.


W.W. Grainger Inc.: Breaking Barriers to Deliver Exceptional Customer Value! – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Grainger managed to exceed analyst expectations in terms of revenue as well as earnings.
  • The company’s supply chain and distribution network experienced a rise in product availability due to improved supplier lead times.
  • We give W.W.

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Daily Brief Industrials: LG Energy Solution, Ohba Co Ltd, J&T Global Express, Stanley Black & Decker, Sunrun Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • LG Chem: To Issue Exchangeable Bonds Worth US$2 Billion
  • Initiation – OHBA (9765 JP)
  • J&T Global Express Pre-IPO, Part 3: ‘New Markets’ & X-Border | Our Initial EV Estimate Is US$8.6 Bn
  • Stanley Black & Decker: Are The $200 Million Cost Savings Enough? – Key Drivers
  • Sunrun Inc.: A Game-Changing New Home Solar Offering! – Key Drivers


LG Chem: To Issue Exchangeable Bonds Worth US$2 Billion

By Douglas Kim

  • On 11 July, LG Chem announced that it would issue foreign currency exchangeable bonds worth US$2 billion to raise funs to expansion into its rechargeable battery materials. 
  • Investors in LG Energy Solution will likely have a more positive view of this EB issue rather than a block sale of common shares, because of lack of price discount.
  • We believe LG Chem is not done in selling its shares of LGES as we think LG Chem is likely to sell additional 5-10% stake in LGES in 3-5 years. 

Initiation – OHBA (9765 JP)

By Sessa Investment Research

  • OHBA is a general construction consulting firm boasting a leading market share in the field of urban development, with potential to reap the benefits of the long- term shift to compact and smart cities in rural areas.
  • Since its establishment in 1922, the company has been involved in various stages of public works projects preceding the construction phase, such as urban planning, land readjustment, surveying, and land development, in Japan, where the separation of design and construction is mandatory
  • This commenced with the development of Togoshi New Town (1932), which OHBA undertook in partnership with Mitsui Gomei and Mitsui Trust.

J&T Global Express Pre-IPO, Part 3: ‘New Markets’ & X-Border | Our Initial EV Estimate Is US$8.6 Bn

By Daniel Hellberg

  • After analyzing J&T’s Chinese and SE Asian operations in previous insights, in this note we turn to the company’s ‘Others’ segment, made up of New Markets and X-Border logistics
  • Compared to China and SE Asia, J&T’s New Markets and X-Border logistics business lines are small (just 11% of 2022 Revenue) but could offer attractive growth in the medium-term
  • We conclude this insight with a preliminary sum-of-parts valuation of J&T as a whole. Based on available information, our initial estimate of J&T’s EV is US$8.6 bn (pre-IPO)

Stanley Black & Decker: Are The $200 Million Cost Savings Enough? – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Stanley Black & Decker delivered a mixed set of results in its most recent result, with revenues falling short of Wall Street expectations but above-par earnings.
  • Stanley Black & Decker generated free cash flow of $1.1 billion, up 36% year-over-year, and returned $1.2 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases.
  • We give Stanley Black & Decker a ‘Hold’ rating with a revised target price.

Sunrun Inc.: A Game-Changing New Home Solar Offering! – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Sunrun delivered a mixed set of results in its most recent result, with revenues above Wall Street expectations but below-par earnings.
  • Sunrun’s outlook includes guiding growth in solar energy capacity installed and an expected increase in storage attachment rates.
  • This service is designed to optimize the value of solar energy following California’s latest solar policy, the net billing tariff.

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Daily Brief Industrials: LG Energy Solution, Ohba Co Ltd, J&T Global Express, Stanley Black & Decker, Sunrun Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • LG Chem: To Issue Exchangeable Bonds Worth US$2 Billion
  • Initiation – OHBA (9765 JP)
  • J&T Global Express Pre-IPO, Part 3: ‘New Markets’ & X-Border | Our Initial EV Estimate Is US$8.6 Bn
  • Stanley Black & Decker: Are The $200 Million Cost Savings Enough? – Key Drivers
  • Sunrun Inc.: A Game-Changing New Home Solar Offering! – Key Drivers


LG Chem: To Issue Exchangeable Bonds Worth US$2 Billion

By Douglas Kim

  • On 11 July, LG Chem announced that it would issue foreign currency exchangeable bonds worth US$2 billion to raise funs to expansion into its rechargeable battery materials. 
  • Investors in LG Energy Solution will likely have a more positive view of this EB issue rather than a block sale of common shares, because of lack of price discount.
  • We believe LG Chem is not done in selling its shares of LGES as we think LG Chem is likely to sell additional 5-10% stake in LGES in 3-5 years. 

Initiation – OHBA (9765 JP)

By Sessa Investment Research

  • OHBA is a general construction consulting firm boasting a leading market share in the field of urban development, with potential to reap the benefits of the long- term shift to compact and smart cities in rural areas.
  • Since its establishment in 1922, the company has been involved in various stages of public works projects preceding the construction phase, such as urban planning, land readjustment, surveying, and land development, in Japan, where the separation of design and construction is mandatory
  • This commenced with the development of Togoshi New Town (1932), which OHBA undertook in partnership with Mitsui Gomei and Mitsui Trust.

J&T Global Express Pre-IPO, Part 3: ‘New Markets’ & X-Border | Our Initial EV Estimate Is US$8.6 Bn

By Daniel Hellberg

  • After analyzing J&T’s Chinese and SE Asian operations in previous insights, in this note we turn to the company’s ‘Others’ segment, made up of New Markets and X-Border logistics
  • Compared to China and SE Asia, J&T’s New Markets and X-Border logistics business lines are small (just 11% of 2022 Revenue) but could offer attractive growth in the medium-term
  • We conclude this insight with a preliminary sum-of-parts valuation of J&T as a whole. Based on available information, our initial estimate of J&T’s EV is US$8.6 bn (pre-IPO)

Stanley Black & Decker: Are The $200 Million Cost Savings Enough? – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Stanley Black & Decker delivered a mixed set of results in its most recent result, with revenues falling short of Wall Street expectations but above-par earnings.
  • Stanley Black & Decker generated free cash flow of $1.1 billion, up 36% year-over-year, and returned $1.2 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases.
  • We give Stanley Black & Decker a ‘Hold’ rating with a revised target price.

Sunrun Inc.: A Game-Changing New Home Solar Offering! – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Sunrun delivered a mixed set of results in its most recent result, with revenues above Wall Street expectations but below-par earnings.
  • Sunrun’s outlook includes guiding growth in solar energy capacity installed and an expected increase in storage attachment rates.
  • This service is designed to optimize the value of solar energy following California’s latest solar policy, the net billing tariff.

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Daily Brief Industrials: US Treasury (10 Yr Generic), Recruit Holdings, Plug Power Inc, Republic Services and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Shift in Rate Dynamics
  • Recruit Holdings: Disappointing Job Data for May; More Downside Ahead
  • Plug Power Inc.: Can It Become A Leader In The Green Hydrogen Revolution? – Key Drivers
  • Republic Services Inc.: Unlocking Profitability through Acquisitions! – Key Drivers


Shift in Rate Dynamics

By Thomas Schroeder

  • US 10 year cleared the 4.90% resistance threshold as the market reprices Fed policy. This yield pop will have lasting effects.
  • 3.85% is the key support with to supply rally energy.
  • Short term target comes in at 4.20% and MT resistance at 4.70% (but not in a strait line). A staircase move is expected.

Recruit Holdings: Disappointing Job Data for May; More Downside Ahead

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Recruit Holdings (6098 JP) ’s share price has been down over the last few days following release of job openings data for May 2023 by the US Department of Labour.
  • The no. of job openings in the US in May 2023 decreased to 9.8m vs 11.3m in May 2022. It has also declined compared to 10.1m reported in April 2023.
  • Moreover, web traffic on Recruit’s job platforms Indeed and Glassdoor have also decreased in June 2023 compared to May.

Plug Power Inc.: Can It Become A Leader In The Green Hydrogen Revolution? – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Plug Power delivered a mixed set of results for the previous quarter, with revenues above analyst expectations but below-par earnings.
  • Plug Power reported $210.3 million in terms of its top-line 49% up year over year.
  • Regarding the application business, Plug has a remarkably stable business model compared to the other companies in the industry.

Republic Services Inc.: Unlocking Profitability through Acquisitions! – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Republic Services managed to exceed analyst expectations in terms of revenue as well as earnings.
  • They achieved revenue growth of 21%, including acquisitions and acquisition investments remain a priority for the management as they see significant opportunities in the recycling, solid waste, and environmental solutions sectors.
  • Their commitment to delivering exceptional customer experiences is reflected in their high customer retention rate and positive trends in Net Promoter Score.

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Daily Brief Industrials: US Treasury (10 Yr Generic), Recruit Holdings, Plug Power Inc, Republic Services and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Shift in Rate Dynamics
  • Recruit Holdings: Disappointing Job Data for May; More Downside Ahead
  • Plug Power Inc.: Can It Become A Leader In The Green Hydrogen Revolution? – Key Drivers
  • Republic Services Inc.: Unlocking Profitability through Acquisitions! – Key Drivers


Shift in Rate Dynamics

By Thomas Schroeder

  • US 10 year cleared the 4.90% resistance threshold as the market reprices Fed policy. This yield pop will have lasting effects.
  • 3.85% is the key support with to supply rally energy.
  • Short term target comes in at 4.20% and MT resistance at 4.70% (but not in a strait line). A staircase move is expected.

Recruit Holdings: Disappointing Job Data for May; More Downside Ahead

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Recruit Holdings (6098 JP) ’s share price has been down over the last few days following release of job openings data for May 2023 by the US Department of Labour.
  • The no. of job openings in the US in May 2023 decreased to 9.8m vs 11.3m in May 2022. It has also declined compared to 10.1m reported in April 2023.
  • Moreover, web traffic on Recruit’s job platforms Indeed and Glassdoor have also decreased in June 2023 compared to May.

Plug Power Inc.: Can It Become A Leader In The Green Hydrogen Revolution? – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Plug Power delivered a mixed set of results for the previous quarter, with revenues above analyst expectations but below-par earnings.
  • Plug Power reported $210.3 million in terms of its top-line 49% up year over year.
  • Regarding the application business, Plug has a remarkably stable business model compared to the other companies in the industry.

Republic Services Inc.: Unlocking Profitability through Acquisitions! – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Republic Services managed to exceed analyst expectations in terms of revenue as well as earnings.
  • They achieved revenue growth of 21%, including acquisitions and acquisition investments remain a priority for the management as they see significant opportunities in the recycling, solid waste, and environmental solutions sectors.
  • Their commitment to delivering exceptional customer experiences is reflected in their high customer retention rate and positive trends in Net Promoter Score.

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Daily Brief Industrials: Samsung Heavy Industries Pref, Tryt Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Delisting of 5 Korean Preferred Stocks on 17 July
  • TRYT IPO: Peer Comparison and Valuation


Delisting of 5 Korean Preferred Stocks on 17 July

By Douglas Kim

  • The Korea Exchange officially announced today that the following five preferred stocks will be delisted on 17 July.
  • These five stocks including Samsung Heavy Industries Pref, SK Networks Pref,  DB Hitek Pref, Hyundai BNG Steel Pref, and Heungkuk Fire & Marine Insurance Pref 2B fell sharply today.   
  • Despite the warning by the Korea Exchange since end of May, it was not until today that these five stocks dropped sharply. On average, these five stocks fell 44% today. 

TRYT IPO: Peer Comparison and Valuation

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • TRYT Group is engaged in job placement and temporary staffing, specialising in the medical and welfare and construction fields. The company has set the pricing for its Tokyo IPO.
  • Existing shareholders of the company will offer 40m shares at an indicative price range of ¥1,100-1,300 per share, raising around US$305-360m from the IPO.
  • We think Tryt Inc (9164 JP) ’s IPO is overvalued at the above price range compared to Japanese recruitment peers and would recommend staying on the sidelines.

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