Weekly Top Ten Equity Derivatives – Apr 20, 2025

1. Nvidia (NVDA US) Outlook Following Surprise $5B Hit From China Chip Export Ban

By Nico Rosti, MRM Research

• NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)  said it will take a $5.5 billion financial hit after Washington fresh restrictions on H20 AI chips designed for the Chinese market. 
• The Trump Administration’s move comes as as a surprise, the U.S. now requires a special export license for these chips, but historically, no such licenses have ever been granted.
• Some estimates Nvidia may lose $10 billion in revenue, as most of the affected chips are already manufactured and now unsellable, plus the ban could benefit Chinese competitors like Huawei.

2. Time to Sell HDFC Bank? Stock Nears Record High and Slightly Overbought

By Nico Rosti, MRM Research

• HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) is one of those few stocks that were nearly unaffected by the recent market turmoil (-5.7% pullback, peak to bottom and now at new highs).
• Our insight in January 14th 2025 signaled a strong buy opportunity, the stock rallied +13% from there.
• Now the stock has reached its previous all time highs, and may become overbought. Long-term outlook remains positive, but a short-term pullback is possible in the next 2 weeks.

3. NIFTY 50 Tactical Outlook (Post-Easter Targets)

By Nico Rosti, MRM Research

• The strong rebound from the crash low signals resilience in the NIFTY Index, and notably, the index appears to be staging a short-term breakout from its recent downtrend.
• Is this the start of a rally? It’s hard to say, given the current economic uncertainty—however, our model suggests the index could extend its gains for another week.
• The rally should be limited, a good profit target according to our model is between 24039 and 24496.

4. TSMC (2330.TT) Tactical Outlook Before 1Q25 Earnings Release

By Nico Rosti, MRM Research

• Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT) has lost nearly 30% of its value since its mid-January peak—half of that decline occurred by early March, prior to Trump’s tariff announcement.
• The stock is very oversold, although it bounced off its lows last week, and reached 903 this Monday. This insight will analyze how far this rebound can go.
• Earnings will be reported on April 17. Our model suggests the stock has room to move in either direction—the results will be the catalyst. Check out our targets.

5. Nifty Index Options Weekly (Apr 07 – 11): Volatility Spikes, Skew Steepens, Hedges Reassessed

By John Ley, Clifton Derivatives

• Implied vol spiked sharply on Monday, marking one of the largest single-day moves since the pandemic.
• We discuss the move in skew and suggest a course of action for previously recommended hedges.
• The magnitude of the implied vol move is examined in the context of recent price behavior—and whether it holds.

6. TSLA Earnings: Volatility Setup and Post-Release Price Behavior

By John Ley, Clifton Derivatives

• A detailed analysis of price patterns, implied vol and the earnings implied jump in TSLA options compared to historical outcomes. 
• Pre- and post-earnings price movements are examined to assess directional tendencies, patterns and magnitude.
• Price returns in the 1-month following earnings show a distinctly different pattern between beats and misses. 

7. NSE NIFTY50/ Vol Update / Risk Premia Catches up with Global Counterparts in Spite of Truncated Week

By Sankalp Singh, AceGama Advisors

• Risk premia in Nifty50 Options catches up with Global Markets as IVs spike from sub-12% to 24% – levels last seen during 2024 National Elections. 
• Vol-Regime switches from “Low & Up” state to “High & Up”. Term-structure swings into Backwardation. Front-end risk premiums elevated in spite of truncated upcoming week.  
• Tactical Implications: (1) Use IV-spike to flatten +ve Vega exposure. (2) Avoid -ve Gamma, Vol harvesting structures. (3) Front-end/ Back-end Calendars recommended as extreme curve inversion expected to normalize.

8. Nikkei Index Options Weekly (Apr 07 – 11): Vol Spikes, Skew Steepens, Macro Shifts Unfold

By John Ley, Clifton Derivatives

• Both Nikkei and USD/JPY re-tested levels last seen in early August, with Nikkei implied vols surging.
• Beyond tariffs, we explore what may become the dominant driver of market movements in the weeks ahead.
• Skew steepened materially; we examine how open interest at current spot levels could shape the spot-vol relationship going forward.

9. Kospi Index Options Weekly (Apr 07 – 11):  Skew Shifts Steepens and Positioning Signals

By John Ley, Clifton Derivatives

• Price action was volatile this week, marked by two large moves and a notable pickup in vol of vol.
• We examine the material steepening of skew observed over the course of the week.
• USD/KRW broke its recent range, reinforcing signs that USD assets may be losing their traditional flight to quality appeal.

10. HSI Index Options Weekly (Apr 14-17): Volatility Cools, But the Floor May Hold

By John Ley, Clifton Derivatives

• A weekly recap of volatility and price metrics, including option volumes, volatility trends, the spot/implied relationship, and open interest statistics.
• The recent cooling in volatility may be more of a pause than a reversal—we explore why that might be.
• Trading activity continued to fade as the market works through the volatility of recent weeks.