This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Derivatives on Smartkarma.
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1. BYD (1211 HK) Positioning Ahead of Q1 2025 Results
- BYD (1211 HK) will release its Q1 2025 results on April 25. The company has issued a positive profit alert, projecting net income around RMB 8.5 – 10 billion.
- Expected earnings per share ranging from RMB 2.91 to RMB 3.42, up from RMB 1.57 in the same period last year.
- Our model currently does not indicate the stock is overbought, but a surprise pullback is always possible around earnings releases, so we will discuss also support/buy zones.
2. China Mobile (941 HK) Tactical Outlook Following Q1 2025 Results
- On April 22, 2025, China Mobile (941 HK) reported its Q1 2025 financial results, revenues substantially unchanged, but increase in net income and subscriber growth indicates resilience in its operations.
- The initial market reaction suggests mild disappointment, the stock retreated to a low <80 intra-week, then closed the week down at 80.85.
- Our price model shows an oversold state, while the time model indicates there is room for another week down, possibly a buy-the-dip opportunity (3 weeks down should be the limit).
3. HSI Tactical Outlook: Fading Momentum Signals Pullback Risk
- In our previous insight we highlighted a buy-the-dip opportunity in the HSI INDEX in the HSI Index during the late-March pullback. However, Trump’s tariff announcement dramatically shifted the outlook.
- Following a sharp drop to 19260, the Hang Seng Index staged a fierce rally to 21000—but momentum has since stalled.
- The index has rallied for three straight weeks (including this one), but remains below key resistance levels. Our model signals weakness, and a likely pullback ahead.
4. Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK): Top Trades and Strategic Insights from HKEX Options Trading
- Over the past five trading days, Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK) multi-leg option strategies showcased a variety of approaches. Strategy highlights are provided.
- Bearish and Bullish strategies balance each other, with only 12% of trades expressing a neutral view, such as Iron Condors. Some strategies were traded in unusually large size.
- Diagonal Spreads account for over 25% of all strategies and can make for near self-financing strategies. An inverted volatility term structure, aka backwardation, supports calendar and diagonal spreads.
5. Meituan (3690 HK): Top Trades and Strategic Insights from HKEX Options Trading
- Over the past five trading days, Meituan (3690 HK) multi-leg option strategies showcased a variety of approaches. Strategy highlights are provided.
- Long volatility strategies dominate, with the ratio of bearish vs. bullish positions approximately 2:1.
- Diagonal Spreads account for 25% of all strategies and can make for near self-financing strategies.
6. Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK): Volatility Insights and Analysis Identify Spread Opportunities
- Xiaomi’s (1810 HK) one-month implied volatility has decreased from recent peaks but remains above the 90th percentile, while realized volatility is exceptionally high, exceeding 100% (100th percentile).
- The options market exhibits an inverted term structure (backwardation) favoring calendar or diagonal spreads, with a slightly negatively sloped skew supporting put and call spreads.
- Open interest extends to March 2026, with balanced call and put interest across most expiries, except for March 2026, which is heavily call-dominated.
7. HSBC (5.HK) Q1 Earnings: Big Move, Rich Vol, Hedge Opportunity Emerges
- HSBC has rallied 19.8% from the April low and is up > 13% year-to-date. Against this backdrop we analyze implied vol, implied jump and post-earning price patterns.
- Q1 is typically HSBC’s least volatile earnings quarter, with most moves falling short of current jump expectations.
- We suggest a short-vega hedge structure that benefits from elevated implied vol.
8. Meituan (3690 HK): Options Insights and Analysis, Skew Shift Amid Earnings Calm
- One-Month implied volatility for Meituan (3690 HK) has decreased from recent highs to around its three-year median, while realized volatility, a lagging indicator, remains significantly higher at the 87th percentile.
- The term structure is flat, with May and June implied volatilities nearly identical, indicating no significant impact from the upcoming earnings announcement in early June.
- Open interest is spread over the next nine months, with April calls concentrated at strikes 145 to 150 and deep out of the money calls at strikes 180 to 200.
9. Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (April 14 – 17): Broader Participation, Softer Vols
- A noticeable shift in tone this week, with participation broadening and price action turning constructive.
- Implied vols declined across most names, unwinding last week’s spike but still sitting above historical medians.
- Call activity bounced back, and the Put/Call ratio suggestive of less defensiveactivity.
10. Sinopec (386) Earnings: Volatility Setup and Post-Release Price Behavior
- With Sinopec down 8.47% since the last quarter, we take an in-depth look at price patterns, implied vol, and the earnings implied jump compared to historical outcomes.
- Implied vols stand out across a variety of metrics including relative valuation.
- Examining average absolute price moves across quarters, Q1 tends to have the second-largest average absolute move.
