Weekly Top Ten Equity Derivatives – Dec 14, 2025

1. Toyota Motor (7203 JP) Tactical Outlook: Undervalued and Rising

By Nico Rosti, MRM Research

• On October 21st we published an insight predicting Toyota Motor’s imminent pullback. The stock started to pullback the following week, the correction lasted for a few weeks.
• After last week’s weakness, Toyota Motor (7203 JP) is rallying again. There’s conflicting sentiment on valuation—some see it as undervalued.
• This insight presents a short-term tactical analysis with a bullisht target at 3291 (75% probability of seeing a new pullback after that target is reached). 

2. HSI INDEX Tactical Outlook After the Dec 6 Rebalance

By Nico Rosti, MRM Research

• The Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) rally has lost traction since mid-September. The index seems to be approaching a corrective phase.
• Our model signaled a modestly overbought state at the end of last week, but the index went down pretty fast this week: it has already breached the median support (25440). 
• This insight will analyze the model to find support entry zones to play short-term rallies or to take profit from hedges. 

3. Asian and US Stocks Tactical Outlook Before Fed Meeting

By Nico Rosti, MRM Research

• A tactical snapshot of the Asian and US indices and stocks we cover.
• Many Asian and US stocks are getting overbought. Wednesday’s Fed meeting is a potential volatility trigger, consider hedging or short exposure.
• China Mobile (941 HK), Toyota Motor (7203 JP) , Amazon (AMZN US) are the only stocks a bit oversold, possibly worth considering for LONG trades, at the moment.

4. US Indices (SPX,NDX) Tactical Outlook After After the Fed’s Final Rate Cut

By Nico Rosti, MRM Research

• The Fed cut rates this week—likely the last cut for an extended period—and moved into a wait-and-see stance / monitoring mode, to assess economic conditions ahead.
• Both the S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX) and the Nasdaq-100 Stock Index (NDX INDEX) have suffered very high volatility this week, after the Fed decision, after several flat days.
• This insight will try to forecast what is the next probable direction for the two main US indices in the next few weeks.

5. Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) Tactical Outlook: The Stock Is OVERBOUGHT

By Nico Rosti, MRM Research

• Back on October 24th we forecastedSamsung Electronics (005930 KS)‘s pullback. Samsung pulled back 1 week after, ended in the support BUY zone we predicted and rallied higher from there.
• Now, fast-forward to December 8th, Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) is getting very close to the previous top at 112,400. Our model says the stock is overbought. 
• Double top? Not necessarily, but in the short-term the stock is about to pullback again. Our analysis tries to identify when the pullback can happen and where to enter LONG.

6. Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (Dec 08–12): Late Support Emerges as Breadth and Volumes Slide

By John Ley, Clifton Derivatives

• Early weakness gave way to a late rebound, leaving HSI modestly lower on the week after a choppy but contained trading pattern.
• Breadth continued to deteriorate, with fewer than one third of optionable names finishing higher for a second consecutive week. Option volumes continue lower trend.
• Pop Mart stood out with a large increase in option volume after heavy selling to start the week.

7. Australia Single Stock Options (Dec 08–12): AS51 Escapes Range as Relative Performance Vs SPX Turns

By John Ley, Clifton Derivatives

• AS51 broke out of a tight multi day range Friday with one of the strongest moves of the year.
• Relative performance versus SPX has begun to improve, hinting at a potential shift after prolonged underperformance.
• SPASX200 1-month implied vol remains pinned near historic lows which could provide an interesting setup into year end.