Weekly Top Ten Equity Derivatives – Dec 21, 2025

1. BYD (1211 HK) Tactical Outlook: Time To Go LONG? Not Yet.

By Nico Rosti, MRM Research

• BYD (1211 HK) has been downtrending for a while, a speculative LONG positioning starts to become attractive for some, but according to our model the short-term upside is limited.
• The stock is pulling back this week, second consecutive week down, this insight will try to identify price zones where to buy the stock and where to exit / hedge.
• BYD could be held past our suggested profit target at 101.8 (in case the next bear rally it’s not just a bear-rally), but time-wise it’s a 2 weeks rally, tops.

2. SBI Shinsei Bank (8303) IPO Today, BoJ This Week

By Jay Cameron, Cameron Design

• The SBI Shinsei Bank (8303) IPO is positioned to benefit from rising Japanese interest rates and its mandate to lead regional bank consolidation under the “Fourth Megabank” strategy.
• Despite risks such as 2023 buyout litigation related to SBI’s majority control, market interest suggests the 1450 listing price seems to be undervalued.
• The anticipated BoJ rate hike of 25bp to 0.75% is expected to act as a catalyst, boosting margins across the Japanese banking sector and potentially providing post-IPO momentum

3. NIFTY 50 Tactical Outlook: A Buy Opportunity

By Nico Rosti, MRM Research

• The NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) is in the middle of a very mild correction, the index is now in its 3rd week down but the pullback has been very minimal.
• We think this is the ideal set up to add LONG NIFTY 50 positions: mild pullback coupled with a high probability of reversal on our quantitative TIME MODEL.  
• The proposed tactical LONG trade will be valid for this entire week, if the index stays below last week’s Close.

4. Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) Outlook Ahead of Friday’s BOJ Rate Decision

By Nico Rosti, MRM Research

• The Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) had a great run this year, since Trump’s Liberation Day in April 2025, but seems to be stalling as of lately. 
• The index started correcting this week, after a 3-week rally, the interest rate decision by the BOJ this Friday (most likely a hike) could increase volatility.
• This insight will try to define the best entry zones in case the index falls further in the next few days, weeks. 

5. Tactical View: Gold Eyes 4,600 As GDX ETF Rebalances

By Nico Rosti, MRM Research

• Gold (GOLD COMDTY) keeps rising steadily, while the VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) rebalances became effective on December 19th, after the Close.
• According to our model Gold (GOLD COMDTY) has plenty of room to rise higher, beyond 4.4k, on this leg, but after that point it could make a small pullback.
• The commodity is quite overbought, but based on the behavior witnessed in the past when the current WEEKLY trend pattern was encountered, it could rise to 4.6k in 6-8 weeks.

6. Global Markets: US Rates, Korean Alpha, and the AI Diversification Thesis

By Jay Cameron, Cameron Design

• The bullish outlook for global equities is driven by the macro strength of Developed Markets, including US upside and Eurozone resilience, plus corporate governance reforms.
• Central bank divergence, FX risks 2026+ may warrant a look at VIX and gold portfolio hedges.
• KOSPI 200 led 2025 gains among our selection of indices, highlighting AI alpha from memory chips as another dimension to the global GPU rally.

7. Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (Dec 15–19): Fragile Internals Meet Depressed Impiled Vols

By John Ley, Clifton Derivatives

• Stocks were broadly lower, giving back last Friday’s rally with breadth continuing weak.
• We present new data showing average single stock implied vols.
• Average Single stock implied vols are reaching levels last seen before a major decline.

8. Australia Single Stock Options (Dec 15 – 19): Rejected Rally and Rising Volatility Dispersion

By John Ley, Clifton Derivatives

• Last week’s upside break failed quickly pulling AS51 back into the narrow range that it had been confined to.
• Market participation weakened meaningfully, with fewer stocks advancing and losses outweighing gains beneath the surface.
• We introduce new analysis comparing average single stock implied vol with AS51 index vol, highlighting a significant disconnect.