Weekly Top Ten Equity Derivatives – Mar 2, 2025

1. Tencent (700 HK): Top Trades: Strategies That Stand Out

By Gaudenz Schneider

• This Insight analyses Tencent (700 HK)tailor-made option strategies traded over the last five trading days on the Hong Kong Exchange. Strategy highlights and volatility context are provided.
• These traders tailor structures to risk budgets and take calculated bets. Diagonal call spreads are popular, many self-financing (0% premium). This strategy can play the 18 March earnings date.
• Call spreads can indicate where bullish traders see limits to the upside. The most bullish trade suggests a peak of up to 710 HKD by the end of March.

2. Tencent (700 HK) – Surging Price, Strikes, and Volatility. A Novel Look with an Animated Chart

By Gaudenz Schneider

• Tencent (700 HK) has surged 33.5% over the past 30 days, with its spot price outpacing the slow adjustment of call option strikes, shifting most contracts from out-of-the-money to in-the-money.
• The current concentration of in-the-money calls hints at active trading and potential strike adjustments ahead, amplified by upcoming events like the 19 March earnings.
• This analysis features a novel animated chart of option open interest distribution offering a dynamic visual of market behavior.

3. Xiaomi: 3 Option Hedges for Extreme Price & Volatility Environment

By John Ley, Clifton Derivatives

• Xiaomi has had a remarkable rally, ranking at the 99th percentile for all previous 1-month price changes.
• Implied vols have surged along with price with 1M, 2M and 3M implied vols all ranking above the 95th over the past 4 years.  
• We recommend how to manage risk and positioning given the extreme price and implied vol dynamics.

4. China Mobile (941 HK) Pullback Offers a Tactical Re-Entry Opportunity

By Nico Rosti, MRM Research

• In our last insight covering  China Mobile (941 HK) we said the stock was overbought. It made a sharp pullback last week that may turn into a good BUY opportunity.
• Support levels to buy range from 79.1 to 76.4, assuming this pullback is a buy-the-dip scenario, something we will discuss in this insight.
• If the stock resumes its rally, the next WEEKLY profit targets will be between 82.64 and 84.4.

5. Nikkei Index Options Weekly (Feb 17 – 21): USD/JPY at Inflection Point

By John Ley, Clifton Derivatives

• The 150 level on USD/JPY seems to be an area of heightened interest. We see potential for greater disparity of Nikkei returns below this level.
• Nikkei 1-month implied vol is at the 17th percentile; while not currently monetizing, caution is warranted on short vol positions as USD/JPY vol trends higher.
• Call volume dropped sharply vs total volume, with Puts outpacing Calls every day this week.

6. NVIDIA (NVDA US) Support and Resistance Targets Post-Earnings

By Nico Rosti, MRM Research

• NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) will release its earnings at the end of today’s US session. This insight offers a quick view of possible support and resistance for derivatives traders.
• The stock is currently mildly oversold, aroud 50% probability of reversal according to our quantitative PRICE model and about 78% probability of reversal according to our quantitative TIME model.
• WEEKLY TACTICAL TARGETS: buy below 125 (with room to go to 92 if the earnings are disappointing) and sell above 147 (the limit should be 161).

7. HSCEI Index Options Weekly (Feb 24-28): Shifting Sentiment

By John Ley, Clifton Derivatives

• Put trading as a percentage of total volume continues to increase and coupled with a shift in the skew highlights changing sentiment.
• Volatile price action this week with Wednesday and Friday both moving ~3.50%.
• Implied and historic volatilities were all up on the week and seasonal setup over next two weeks not favorble. 

8. Where Is the Nasdaq 100 Headed Next?

By Nico Rosti, MRM Research

• The Nasdaq-100 INDEX started to pull back last week, this is the second week down in a row and the index is very oversold according to our tactical model.
• The DAILY model signals extreme oversold conditions, a reversal is imminent. The WEEKLY model is also oversold but still leaves room for further downside…
• A possible scenario is a DAILY bounce (1 or 2 days up) followed by more WEEKLY downside (another 1-2 weeks down). This insight wil analyze only the WEEKLY model.

9. Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (February 17 – 21): Option Volumes Surge as Rally Narrows

By John Ley, Clifton Derivatives

• Mixed bag with narrowing participation, widening distribution of returns but with the highest total option volume since November.
• Option volumes over the past 2 weeks are 80% higher than the prior 3-month average.
• Implied vols weaker across the board with 9 of 11 sectors seeing softer implieds.

10. Kospi Index Options Weekly (Feb 17 – 21): Hedge Considerations as Rally Stalls at 350

By John Ley, Clifton Derivatives

• After eight consecutive days of gains, the Kospi rally paused in the last two sessions, closing just above 350.
• The 350 area aligns with several key levels from the past three years.
• For those looking to hedge recent gains, we recommend two preferred hedge strategies.