This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Derivatives on Smartkarma.
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1. Nikkei 225 (NKY) Outlook After Surprise Nov 5 Rebalance
- As reported by Brian Freitas, the JPX on Oct 27 suddenly announced that Nidec Corp (6594 JP) would be deleted from the Nikkei 225 and replaced by Ibiden (4062 JP).
- The date of replacement is November 5, the Nikkei will experience passive flows, in this insight we want to have a look at the possible moves caused by this catalyst.
- At the moment the index is overbought, according to our models.
2. A Special Cross Asset Morning Update: Nidec, Ibiden, and BoJ This Week
- Japanese markets are seeing significant developments, including Nikkei 225 rebalancing with Nidec’s removal due to alert and Ibiden’s addition, impacting tracking funds, delta one trading strategies, and investors with position.
- The BoJ’s cautious normalization path continues to shape the JGB curve, with a notable steepening in the long end affecting asset-liability management.
- We detail the trades and execution of the trade idea, which may require special attention this week especially on the rebalance.
3. GOLD Tactical Outlook: Correcting After the Run — Where to Step In
- After a 9 weeks rally, Gold (GOLD COMDTY) started to pullback, last week, and the pullback continued into this week.
- Some market watchers argue US retail investors piled into Gold ETFs following the Fed’s late-August shift to rate cuts, potentially fueling the metal’s recent upside exhaustion.
- If Gold (GOLD COMDTY) was fueled by retail buying and is now correcting, retail investors will likely chase the dip—a textbook example of herd behavior, potentially driving a rebound.
4. Advantest Earnings… TPXC30, and Murata…
- Advantest saw a 34% upside after earnings, aligning with previous buy recommendations and its inclusion in the Value Seeker Japan basket for long-term growth.
- A small inclusion into TPXC30 occurs today at the close, with Advantest’s fundamental outlook remaining in line with our recent insights.
- Murata seeing some flows as well today in at the close, and moves to the TPX 70 Large.
5. COMEX Gold: Trading Gold’s Moment in the Options Market Spotlight
- Global monetary shifts and diversification from the U.S. dollar are creating a favorable environment for gold, supported by central bank activity and strong physical demand.
- The market is showing signs of declining volatility after a recent price drop, suggesting an opportune moment for strategic options trading.
- Careful consideration of resistance levels and downside risks is key to optimizing this particular market strategy.
6. Silver: A Fifty-Year Perspective on Bull Markets and Sizing Up the Recent Correction
- After an extraordinary run, SLV’s pullback appears orderly as implied volatility cools yet remains high by historical standards.
- We examine how this bull market in Silver compares with previous bull market spanning 50 years.
- We also look at market participation to identify what’s been driving the recent price action.
7. Selective Volatility Picks Emerge Across HSI Stocks
- Context: Volatility cones provide a straightforward framework to evaluate whether options are trading cheap or rich. This Insight provides volatility analysis for the Hang Seng and eight prominent Hong Kong stocks
- Highlight: With a dense earnings calendar ahead, volatility dispersion is widening — BYD trades rich into results, while Tencent and Xiaomi remain notably cheap relative to history.
- Why Read: Spot opportunities, assess regime shifts, and manage risk effectively — volatility cones turn complex data into actionable insights for traders and investors.
8. CBA, ANZ, Westpac, NAB: Volatility Runs High Ahead of Imminent Catalysts
- Context: Volatility cones provide a straightforward framework to evaluate whether options are trading cheap or rich. This Insight provides volatility analysis for the S&P/ASX 200 and ten prominent Australian stocks.
- Highlights: Implied volatility across Australia’s major banks remains rich ahead of earnings and the RBA decision.
- Why Read: Spot opportunities, assess regime shifts, and manage risk effectively — volatility cones turn complex data into actionable insights for traders and investors.
9. HKEX Adds Five New Weekly Options on 10 Nov: AIA, China Mobile, Xiaomi Join Fast-Growing Line-Up
- HKEX Expands Weekly Options: Five new single-stock weeklies debut on 10 November, broadening Hong Kong’s fast-growing short-dated options market.
- Why It Matters: Weeklies let traders and investors hedge or speculate around key events with precision, lower premiums, and higher gamma exposure.
- Momentum: Trading volumes in existing weeklies have surged—up nearly fourfold since launch—underscoring rising investor adoption and liquidity.
10. Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (Oct 27 – 31): Market Cools After Busy News Week
- Busy news week with trade and deal headlines taking center stage.
- Stock have been treading water aside from the Materials Sector with breadth reversing from last week’s rebound.
- The thick of earnings season is past with only 15 companies reporting in the next week.
