Weekly Top Ten Event-Driven and Index Rebalance – Nov 2, 2025

1. Tsuruha (3391 JP)/Welcia (3141 JP): Index Promotion & Passive Flows Likely Priced In

By Brian Freitas, Periscope Analytics

• Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) acquires Welcia Holdings (3141 JP) in just over 4 weeks. Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP)‘s tender offer for Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) could commence in December/January.
• The enlarged Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) could migrate upward in the MGlobal Index and that will bring in large passive flows. But there is one thing to watch out for.
• Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) and Welcia Holdings (3141 JP) have outperformed peers over the last 6 months and now trade at a higher forward PE.

2. Seres (9927 HK): Index Inclusion Timeline for a Max Offering of US$2.2bn; Big Discount to A-Shares

By Brian Freitas, Periscope Analytics

• Seres Group (601127 CH) could raise up to HK$17.4bn (US$2.24bn) in its H-share listing if the Offer Size Adjustment Option and the Overallotment Option are both exercised.
• There is a big allocation to cornerstone investors that is locked up for 6 months. That eliminates the already small possibility of Fast Entry inclusion to global indexes.
• Seres (9927 HK) should be added to Southbound Stock Connect from the open of trading on 1 December following the end of the Price Stabilisation period.

3. Lenskart IPO: Earliest Index Inclusion in June

By Brian Freitas, Periscope Analytics

• Lenskart Solutions (0370405Z IN) is looking to list on the exchanges by selling 181.05m shares via a primary and secondary offering to raise US$829m at a valuation of US$7.95bn.
• The price band has been set at INR 382-402/share, and the issue is likely to price at the top end of the range.
• The stock will not get Fast Entry to global indices. Inclusion at regular rebalances will commence in June 2026 but flow will be small given the low float.

4. Groww IPO: Growwing Fast; Index Inclusions Will Be Sloww; Small Floww

By Brian Freitas, Periscope Analytics

• Groww (1573648D IN) is looking to list on the exchanges by selling 663.23m shares via a primary and secondary offering to raise US$752m at a valuation of US$7bn.
• The price band has been set at INR 95-100/share, and the issue is likely to price at the top end of the range.
• The stock will not get Fast Entry to global indices. Inclusion at regular rebalances will commence in June 2026 but flow will be small given the low float.

5. [Japan M&A/Activism] Ashimori Industry (3526 JP) Minimum Lower, May Be a Tough Call

By Travis Lundy, Quiddity Advisors

• In August, Toyoda Gosei (7282 JP) announced a deal for Ashimori Industry (3526 JP) at 1.000x book value after writedowns. That was not a coincidence.
• The takeover is cheap for what it is. No synergies were counted. But it wasn’t truly offensive. MURAKAMI Takateru aimed an activist broadside, bought 19.73% across four entities. Then stopped. 
• The Bidder lowered the Tender Offer Minimum from 2.3081mm shares (38.29%) to 1.8001mm shares (29.86%). Shares dropped. As of 24-Sep, 2,111,226 shares had been tendered. This looks done. Maybe. 

6. [Japan M&A] Sumitomo Corp To Buy Out Minorities in SCSK (9719 JP)

By Travis Lundy, Quiddity Advisors

• Yesterday after the close, Sumitomo Corp (8053 JP) announced it would buy out minorities in Scsk Corp (9719 JP) at ¥5,700/share.   
• As a “parent takes out subsidiary” deal, this was not unexpected at some point in time. The register looks like there may be a number of people who expected that.
• This gets done pretty easily. It is not a bad price. 

7. Sanil Electric Poised for Pop on Nov 20 KOSPI200 Ad‑Hoc (HD Hyundai Merger)

By Sanghyun Park, Clepsydra Capital

• HD Hyundai merger: both legs in index, Mipo delists, slot opens — one new name gets added to KOSPI200 via ad‑hoc.
• Sanil Electric (062040 KS) to replace HD Mipo pre‑Dec review. If DTV settles back into the 500–600k range, then KS200 ETFs will need to scoop ~0.3–0.4x DTV on Nov 26.
• Better to front‑run KRX; with AI power trade still hot, Nov 20 announcement likely sparks outsized price action vs waiting for rebalance print.

8. ANE (9956 HK): Centurium/Temasek’s Clean Offer

By David Blennerhassett, Quiddity Advisors

• After ANE Cayman Inc (9956 HK), a road freight transportation play, was suspended pursuant to the Takeovers Code, an Offer from PE outfit Centurium Partners, a pre-IPO investor, was expected. 
• And this is what unfolded. Centurium, together with Temasek and Singapore-based asset manager True Light, are offering HK$12.18/share (best & final) via a Scheme, a 48.54% premium to undisturbed.
• A scrip alternative is present (mix & match). This is a pre-conditional Offer: it requires SAMR signing off. The FA is JPM. This should help smooth over the reg process.

9. ANE (9956 HK): Consortium’s Attractive Preconditional Offer

By Arun George, Global Equity Research Ltd

• ANE Cayman Inc (9956 HK) has disclosed a preconditional scheme privatisation offer from a consortium. The offer is cash (HK$12.18) or scrip (One TopCo Class A Share per scheme share). 
• The precondition relates to SAMR approval. The scheme vote is low risk, as the offer is attractive relative to historical ranges and peer multiples. 
• The offer price is final. Mr Wang Yongjun, the former chairman, holds a blocking stake but should be supportive. Timing is the key risk. 

10. Jardine Matheson’s Underperformance Post Mandarin Offer

By David Blennerhassett, Quiddity Advisors

• Concurrent with the sale of 13 floors of OCB to Alibaba, Jardine Matheson (JM SP) announced on the 17th October an Offer for Mandarin Oriental (MAND SP)‘s minorities at US$3.35/share.
• This is a clean, full, “dull” Offer. And MAND is trading super tight to terms at ~2.1% gross, with possible payment (my estimate) late Feb 2026.
• Proceeds from the OCB sale will be US$925mn. And taking out MAND’s minorities will set Matheson back ~US$1bn. Yet the market is now assigning US$2.1bn less for Matheson’s stub ops.