Weekly Top Ten Event-Driven and Index Rebalance – Oct 5, 2025

1. [Japan Event] Sony Financial (8729 JP) Overhang Hangs Over, Company Buys Back, ADR Selldown Awaits?

By Travis Lundy, Quiddity Advisors

• Sony Financial Group (8729 JP) listed on Monday with a “Reference Price of ¥150. It opened at ¥205, quickly running to ¥210, then fell to ¥198 by lunch. Close? ¥173.8.
• That got a big ToSTNeT-3 buyback at ¥173.8. It traded lower on Day 2, closing at ¥164. Then lower still on Weds with another TN-3 buyback now ¥159.4. 
• Neither buyback was full. SFGI has bought back 124mm shares. But the stock has fallen hard. ADRs/ADSs start trading Tuesday. That could see more selling. 

2. Tekscend Photomask (429A JP) IPO: TPX Add in Nov; Global Index: One in Feb; One in June

By Brian Freitas, Periscope Analytics

• Tekscend Photomask (429A JP)‘s listing has been approved by the JPX and the stock is expected to start trading on the Prime Market from 16 October.
• At the top end of the IPO range at JPY 3000/share, Tekscend Photomask (429A JP) will be valued at JPY 298bn (US$2bn).
• The stock should be added to the TOPIX INDEX at the close on 27 November while inclusion in global indices should take place in February and June.

3. [Japan M&A] Mitsubishi Logisnext (7105) – This Deal Looks Mighty Bad

By Travis Lundy, Quiddity Advisors

• JIP and MitHeavy have announced a takeunder to buy out MitHeavy sub Mitsubishi Logisnext Co., Ltd. (7105 JP) at a weighted average price 42% lower than Target Advisor DCF range midpoint.
• No/Minimal transparency. A sales process interrupted by Trump tariffs, leaving one low-ball bidder. And the sellers goes ahead with it BUT gets to reinvest on the back end. You don’t.
• The Board “supports” the Tender Offer, but leaves it to the opinion of the shareholders as to whether they tender. MitHeavy has 64.4% already so that basically gets done. But…

4. Mitsubishi Logisnext (7105 JP): JIP’s Takeunder Offer

By Arun George, Global Equity Research Ltd

• Mitsubishi Logisnext Co., Ltd. (7105 JP) announced a pre-conditional tender offer from Japan Industrial Partners (JIP) at JPY1,537 per share, representing a 15.3% discount to the last close price.
• The offer resulted from an auction process. The offer is light in comparison to peer multiples and is below the midpoint of the target IFA DCF valuation.
• While Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (7011 JP) irrevocable has a competing proposal clause, it is unlikely that a bidding war will transpire. The low required tendering rate suggests a done deal. 

5. Merger Arb Mondays (29 Sep) – Soft99, Ashimori, Mandom, Paramount, OneConnect, Dongfeng, Spindex

By Arun George, Global Equity Research Ltd

• I summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
• Highest spreads: Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), Smart Share Global (EM US), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Dongfeng Motor (489 HK), Soft99 Corp (4464 JP), Joy City Property (207 HK).
• Lowest spreads: Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK), Pacific Industrial (7250 JP), Humm Group (HUM AU), Mandom Corp (4917 JP), Paramount Bed Holdings Co Lt (7817 JP). 

6. Curator’s Cut: BABA Hedges, Substantive Spin-Offs & Japanese Activist Situations

By Pranav Rao, Smartkarma

• Welcome to Curator’s Cut, a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,000+ Insights published over the past two weeks on Smartkarma
• In this cut, we review strategies to hedge Alibaba (9988 HK) exposure, examine signficant Asian spin-offs, and explore engaging activist situations in Japan 
• Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you’d like to see highlighted next

7. LG Electronics India IPO: Big Market Cap, Small Float -> Small Passive Flows

By Brian Freitas, Periscope Analytics

• LG Electronics India (123D IN) is looking to list on the exchanges by selling 101.8m shares at a valuation of US$8.7bn and raising around US$1.3bn in its IPO.
• The new valuation is around 24% lower than the rumoured valuation at the time of the DRHP filing last December.
• The stock will not get Fast Entry to global indices. Inclusion at regular rebalances will commence in June 2026 but flow will be small given the low float.

8. Jardine Matheson (JML SP): Additional Office Recycling Speculated

By David Blennerhassett, Quiddity Advisors

• The prior MO for the Jardines group was never sell your commercial buildings. This year marks a paradigm shift in that line of thinking. 
• First Hongkong Land (HKL SP) sold nine floors of One Exchange Square to HKEX (388 HK). The first such sale since 1988.
• Now Mandarin Oriental (MAND SP) is negotiating the sale of “certain office space” at One Causeway Bay. Jardine Matheson (JM SP)‘s NAV discount and implied stub are at 12-month lows/highs.

9. Tata Capital IPO: Big Listing, Big Valuation, Small Float

By Brian Freitas, Periscope Analytics

• Tata Capital Limited (TATACAP IN) is looking to list on the exchanges by selling up to INR155bn (US$1.75bn) of stock at a valuation of around INR 1,384bn (US$15.6bn).
• The stock will not get Fast Entry to either of the global indices. The earliest inclusion in a global index should take place in June 2026.
• The stock should be added to the Large Cap segment in the AMFI Classification in January and to the Nifty Next 50 Index in March.

10. LG Chem: Announces a PRS Worth 2 Trillion Won Using Its Shares in LG Energy Solution as Base Asset

By Douglas Kim, Douglas Research Advisory

• LG Chem announced that it plans to complete a price return swap worth about 2 trillion won (US$1.4 billion) using its stake in LG Energy Solution as the base asset.
• This 2 trillion won PRS is likely to have a slightly positive impact on LG Chem and slightly negative impact on LG Energy Solution.
• Our NAV valuation of LG Chem suggests implied NAV per share of 369,187 won, which is 31% higher than current levels.