Weekly Top Ten Event-Driven and Index Rebalance – Sep 21, 2025

1. Zijin Mining (2899 HK): This Is A Short

By David Blennerhassett, Quiddity Advisors

• In my June note, Zijin Mining Group (2899 HK) appeared fully valued; but I (thankfully) stopped short of being outright bearish. Its share price is up 48% since! 
• A basket of peers is also up 37% since that note. Gold is up~8%, and 41% YTD. On the 14th September, Zijin released Zijin Gold’s PHIP. 1H25 numbers were solid.  
• However, Zijin Gold’s earnings are by no stretch an outlier. Zijin’s Mining’s current share price is now baking in exceptional (unrealistic?) metrics for the gold play spin-off. 

2. Zijin Gold (2259 HK) IPO: HSCI Fast Entry; Quick Stock Connect Add; Global Indices Entry in 2026

By Brian Freitas, Periscope Analytics

• Zijin Gold (2259 HK) is looking to raise up to HK$28.7bn (US$3.7bn) in its IPO, valuing the company at HK$191.6bn (US$24.6bn).
• Zijin Mining (2899 HK) will hold between 85-86.7% of Zijin Gold and that will limit the free float of the stock. Half the IPO has been allotted to cornerstones.
• Zijin Gold could be added to the HSCI via Fast Entry and to Stock Connect in October. Global index inclusion should take place in the first half of 2026.

3. [Japan M&A/Activism] SOFT99 MBO Sees Activist EffissimoOverbid by 66%! Will This Set New Precedent?

By Travis Lundy, Quiddity Advisors

• In early August, the founder-family announced they would MBO the car care company Soft99 Corp (4464 JP). It was a very cheap MBO. Even 20% higher it would be cheap. 
• On Saturday, Kyodo, followed by various other media outlets, announced activist Effissimo Capital Management had announced a TOB to buy the company saying the MBO was “an extremely low level.”
• The Nikkei-reported goal would be “to protect the interests of minority shareholders while ensuring medium- to long-term increases in corporate value.” This is REALLY BIG NEWS.

4. Chery Auto (9973 HK) IPO: No Inclusion in Global Indices; HSTECH Is Interesting

By Brian Freitas, Periscope Analytics

• Chery Automobile Co. Ltd. (9973 HK)‘s IPO range is HK$27.75-HK$30.75/share and will raise up to HK$10bn (US$1.3m) if the oversubscription option is exercised, valuing the company at HK$169bn (US$21.7bn).
• The stock should be added to the HSCI Index in December and that will make the stock eligible for inclusion in Southbound Stock Connect.
• There will be no inclusion in global indexes for the next year, but there is a possibility of inclusion in the Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) in December.

5. Mori Hills REIT (3234) – Large Sponsor Buy in Market as % of Max Real World Float

By Travis Lundy, Quiddity Advisors

• In the past 24 months, J-REIT sponsors have bought units in their REITs at sharp discounts to PNAV to raise PNAV and reduce overhang pressure. 
• The goal is, basically transparently, to get PNAV to a level at which the REIT can buy more properties from the sponsor, who carries them at a much higher WACC.
• Mori Building has announced a 4.99% buy on Mori Hills REIT Investment Corporation (3234 JP) which is a Very Big portion of Max Real World Float. This should influence price.

6. HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 12 Sep 2025); HUGE Single Stock Trading, ETFs Meh. Tech Bought Bigly

By Travis Lundy, Quiddity Advisors

• Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes just under US$20+bn a day this past 5-day week. BIG Net buying. Big BABA trading. 
• SOUTHBOUND investors traded US$9bn of Alibaba (9988 HK) in the week. Not shy. It was a big net buy as well (4 of 5 days was +US$500mm or more).
• The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Pairs Monitor are both there for all SK readers.

7. Soft99 Corp (4464 JP): Effissimo Sheds More Light on Its Hostile Offer

By Arun George, Global Equity Research Ltd

• Effissimo has formally launched its hostile tender offer for Soft99 Corp (4464 JP) at JPY4,100, which is 66.3% higher than the MBO price of JPY2,465. 
• The Board stonewalled Effissimo’s attempts to negotiate a friendly offer. The huge premium of Effissimo’s offer relies on lower WACC assumptions compared to the target/special committee IFA.
• Management’s initial approach will be to rely on the Board to oppose the Effissimo offer. There is a good chance that Soft99 will remain listed with two large shareholders. 

8. [Japan M&A/Activism] The Nagging Little Detail In the Soft99 MBO Extension Target Doc

By Travis Lundy, Quiddity Advisors

• Yesterday, Soft99 Corp (4464 JP) announced a slight change in its “Target Opinion Document” after the MBO Bidco extended its TOB by 8 days the day before. 
• The detail was not in the MBO Bidco extension. It was just revealed in an added note on p3 of the Target Opinion. 
• That details matters A LOT to people looking at the Effissimo Overbid. The company’s Board has some serious work ahead. 

9. Flagging a New Passive Flow Trading Opportunity Triggered by Korea’s Divvy Policy Momentum

By Sanghyun Park, Clepsydra Capital

• PLUS High Dividend ETF (161510 KS) reshuffle is now a key flow catalyst: June saw GS E&C and HD Hyundai out, Hyundai Motor in, with sharp one-day moves.
• December review shaping up as 2-in/2-out: Seoul Guarantee (031210) and LG Corp (003550) in, Shinhan (055550) and KB (105560) out.
• Passive flows: Shinhan/KB ~0.3–0.4x DTV, LG ~3x, Seoul Guarantee 5–6x. With AUM up 30% since June, upcoming adds face outsized passive impact.

10. Zijin Mining (2899 HK): Zijin Gold Priced At US$24bn

By David Blennerhassett, Quiddity Advisors

• The global offering doc for Zijin Gold (2259 HK) is out.
• At the IPO Price of HK$71.59/share, Zijin Gold’s implied market cap is HK$187.9bn or US$24bn. Commencement of trading is the 29th September.
• Zijin Mining (2899 HK) will hold 86.7% in Zijin Gold post-IPO (before over-allotment).  Even if Zijin Gold trades north of HK$100/share, Zijin Mining is fully valued.