This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Macro and Cross Asset Strategy on Smartkarma.
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1. US vs EU: Crying ‘Wolf’?
- Ursula von der Leyen had a call with Donald Trump on 25 May.
- The call can be interpreted as a ‘win’ for Trump as he had threatened to impose 50% tariffs on the EU from 1 June.
- Another perspective could be that Trump’s reversion is a new manifestation of the TACO principle.
2. More USD Depreciation on the Cards – Who Wins, Who Loses.
- US is focusing on propelling growth with tax cuts, ignoring the debt problem. The obvious consequence, more USD depreciation, could drive more money from US assets into Asia and Europe.
- If 1% of US free float market cap flows into Asia, it would constitute 7.2% of Asia’s market cap. That’s more than 5x the highest ever annual Asian FII inflow.
- Taiwan, Korea and India have seen the biggest FII flow revival. To sidestep the deleterious effect of sharp USD appreciation on Asian exports, investors should play China, India, Indonesia, Philippines.
3. Steno Signals #198 – A 20–25% Weaker USD May Solve All Trump’s Problems
- Morning from Europe.
- Trump’s classical stop-and-go approach to negotiations is starting to get baked into markets, but we’re still surprised by the extent of market moves when these impulsive threats are announced on Truth Social — and markets remain poor at assessing the “realistic outcomes” of this approach.
- On Friday, markets at one point priced in a 40–60% probability that 50% tariffs on the EU would actually take effect on June 1.
4. The Week Ahead – Big and Beautiful
- Yield steepenings may be linked to fears of fiscal profligacy and concerns of inflation expectations
- US Exceptionalism theme unraveling, dollar facing downward pressure
- US tax bill moving through House, expected to have modest stimulative economic impact
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.
5. Biggest One Day Move in Higher Share Performance YTD in 2025 for Major Korean Holdcos Today – Why?
- In this insight, we provide five major factors that may have caused higher share price movements (up 7.6%) of 10 major Korean holdcos/quasi holdcos today.
- This is the best one day share price performance on average for these stocks so far in 2025.
- Emphasis on improving corporate governance by both leading Presidential candidates and potential mandatory cancellation of treasury shares are among the five major factors.
6. Overview #27 – The Big Beautiful Tragi-Comedy Continues
- A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook
- What are major global bond markets telling us about the world?
- We look at potential beneficiaries of the next wave of inflation
7. Texas Power Play: Grid Sovereignty, Bitcoin, and the Future of AI
- The speaker discusses events surrounding the downgrade of the US economy and the response from government officials
- The speaker highlights the increasing adoption and performance of bitcoin compared to traditional assets like gold
- The discussion transitions to the business efforts and partnership of Lisa and Dan, who met at a Houston bitcoin meetup in 2021.
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.
8. KOSPI 200 and KOSDAQ 150 Constituent Changes Announced: A Few Surprises
- Korea Exchange announced its KOSPI200 rebalance changes on 27 May. It added 8 companies and deleted 8 companies. KRX also added 9 companies and deleted 9 companies in KOSDAQ 150.
- These 8 new inclusions in KOSPI200 are up on average 49.8% in the past one year. The 8 deletions to KOSPI200 are down on average 45.2% in the past one year.
- There were numerous surprises to the KOSDAQ150 rebalances. In particular, three companies are relative surprises to the KOSDAQ150 additions including Solid Inc, Zeus Co, and Wemade Max.
9. Asian Equities: To Sidestep ASEAN’s China Problem, Focus on Select Pockets
- ASEAN’s underperformance could continue. The low growth region is facing the additional risk of increasing Chinese exports, which could dent domestic companies’ revenues and margins and engender a deflationary spiral.
- China exports more to ASEAN than to the US or EU. Margin pressure in consumer and industrials is palpable. Thailand is in deflation and inflation is nosediving in the region.
- We recommend playing the region through markets with low China import intensity (Indonesia, Philippines) and through consumer services and select banks. We have Digiplus, DBS, BCA in our model portfolio.
10. Sell America = Buy Gold
- The Sell America investment theme is becoming as a dominant market narrative, and it’s bullish for gold.
- It is driven by the combination of rising deficits, shaky bond markets, an increasingly hawkish Fed and policy uncertainty.
- For a long-term perspective of the upside potential in gold, a point-and-figure chart of monthly gold prices shows a measured objective of almost $7,000.
