This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Tech Hardware and Semiconductor on Smartkarma.
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1. TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Foundry Market Forecast in 2030F; TSMC Had Developed The 2nm Nanosheet.
- TSMC expects the foundry, semiconductor, electronics, industrial technology, and global GDP to be $0.25 trillion, $1 trillion, $3 trillion, $12 trillion, and $145 trillion, respectively, in 2030F
- Transistor technology is constantly evolving, and FinFET architecture will be followed by Nanosheet and others.
- In the transition, the automotive market belongs to IDM companies, but the utility of ADAS (Advanced Driver Assistance Systems) could fall under Foundry territory.
2. Taiwan Tech Weekly: Mediatek Surges After Showcasing Breathtaking AI Capabilities; Novatek; Nanya
- Mediatek Top Performer; Showcasing New AI Capabilities at the Mobile World Congress in Barcelona
- Memory Monitor: Competition Is Hotting Up for Key Memory Chips Nvidia Depends On; Nanya Left Out?
- Novatek (3034.TT): It Has Been Qualified by the IPhone 16 for OLED Driver IC
3. Memory Monitor: Competition Is Hotting Up for Key Memory Chips Nvidia Depends On
- Competition in the High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) space is intensifying; Micron shares have rallied after it announced HBM3e mass production; SK Hynix has outperformed since its earnings release.
- Nvidia’s H200, its most advanced chip for generative AI, leans heavily on HBM3e memory for its increased performance vs. the previous H100 generation. Memory leaders are key for Nvidia’s success.
- Taiwan’s Nanya Tech appears to be watching HBM competition between Micron, SK Hynix, and Samsung from the sidelines; can its shares get back into the game?
4. Semiconductor Memory 2023 In Review, 2024 Outlook
- 2023 DRAM + NAND revenues declined 36% YoY from $140.3 billion to $89.2 billion. This followed a 14% decline YoY in 2022.
- Forecasting ~40% YoY growth in 2024, bringing overall memory revenues back to roughly 2022 levels
- ASML’s Memory-related WFE revenue in 2023 was an all time record high at $5.9 billion. Much of that was spent in China and its impact remains to be seen..
5. The Big Question: Can Today’s AI Surge Last?
- The AI GPU market has been exploding, and this has turned the DRAM market’s downturn into a strong upturn
- With this growth, DRAM manufacturers have seen their business turn around, thanks to increased use of HBM
- Two questions concern us: Will AI growth last? Will increased competition in HBM DRAM create a price collapse?
6. Elan Microelectronics: 50% YoY Growth Feasible for 2024E; Now a Pricey Consensus Long
- Elan Guides For Strong Revenue Growth Ahead and High Margins to Continue
- AI PCs Only Expected to Drive Significant Volume by 2025E; Major AI Opportunity for Touch Sensors
- Elan Can Benefit From Rising Consensus Forecasts But is Pricey — We Wouldn’t Chase the Rally But Also Don’t Want to Short It
7. Semiconductor WFE 2023 In Review, 2024 Outlook
- 2023 WFE revenues amounted to $93 billion, representing a YoY decrease of just ~1%. Most had expected a 20% YoY decline at the start of last year
- We forecast 2024 WFE revenues to grow modestly by around 5% YoY
- China’s WFE spend in 2023 was ~1.5x Taiwan & ~2x Korea
8. ChipMOS: Valuation at Risk Given Latest Results; Short Interest Shows Sentiment Has Room to Shift
- ChipMOS Margin Rebound Sputters, Guidance Implies Margins Could Remain Under Pressure
- Valuation Appears Precarious In Light of Latest Results and Guidance
- Valuation Appears Precarious In Light of Latest Results and Guidance
9. Novatek (3034.TT): It Had Been Qualified by the IPhone 16 for OLED Driver IC.
- The supply chain received good news that Novatek Microelectronics Corp (3034 TT) as successfully passed iPhone 16 OLED DRIVER IC (DDIC) qualification.
- Novatek’s recent alliance with ARM to develop Neoverse V2 is a noteworthy development.
- Novatek’s 1Q24F forecast remains unchanged, but the outlook for 2024F is likely to show positive growth.
10. KYEC (2449.TT): 2024F Could Be a Prosperous Year Although 4Q23 Saw a 5% Decline QoQ.
- It was declined by 5% for 2023 verses 2022, which was not a surprise because the overall sentiment should be dim in 2023.
- For the coming 1Q24F, it could be a bit downside by 5%, assumed as a normal seasonality.
- AI demand remain the biggest driving force, and all eyes are on the CoWoS.
