Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Flash EA inflation crashed by 163bp to 6.88% in Mar-23, precisely as we forecasted, but below the consensus. A more resilient core offset downside energy price news.</li>
<li>Spain’s fall was understated by the consensus, despite being symptomatic of the flat seasonals. Surprises skewed higher across the small member states for us again.</li>
<li>Inflation will likely rise temporarily in April while underlying inflationary pressures remain too high. We still expect two more ECB rate hikes and no cuts until 2024.</li>
</ul>


Flash EA inflation crashed by 163bp to 6.88% in Mar-23, precisely as we forecasted, but below the consensus. A more resilient core offset downside energy price news.
Spain’s fall was understated by the consensus, despite being symptomatic of the flat seasonals. Surprises skewed higher across the small member states for us again.
Inflation will likely rise temporarily in April while underlying inflationary pressures remain too high. We still expect two more ECB rate hikes and no cuts until 2024.


EA: HICP Crashes to Our Mar-23 Forecast